12-22-15 09:37 AM
41 12
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  1. DrBoomBotz's Avatar
    Fiscal 2016-Q3 results-recognizedrevenue.png

    I would think that Priv sales should not have any significant bearing on these results.
    The ASP is up to $315 from $240.
    Frankly I am surprised and also very curious how many BBOS and BB10 devices are still in the channel?

    Could this mean that the Passport SE did well?
    12-18-15 10:43 AM
  2. pkcable's Avatar
    Well they HAVE been discounting the BB10 devices so that MAY have spikes sales a little. And yes 22 days of Priv sales and a carrier exclusive with just 1 US carrier would not have much of an impact on the previous 90 days!
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    12-18-15 10:52 AM
  3. DrBoomBotz's Avatar
    Well they HAVE been discounting the BB10 devices so that MAY have spikes sales a little. And yes 22 days of Priv sales and a carrier exclusive with just 1 US carrier would not have much of an impact on the previous 90 days!
    But the ASP is up.
    12-18-15 10:59 AM
  4. mnc76's Avatar
    Would definitely like to know the phone sales breakdown between Priv, BB10, and BBOS phones.

    However, based on Google Play downloads for Priv-only Android system apps, it appears that less that 50k units have been sold to date.

    Posted via CB10
    12-18-15 11:04 AM
  5. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Well, if ASP is up and sales are down ... means at least Priv has offset BB110 and/or BBOS sales plunge ...
    As I wrote previously in another thread, this ^^^ and many comments to come are "wet fingers" estimates; I'm yet to read a statement leading in a bad direction regarding future sales
    12-18-15 11:05 AM
  6. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    However, based on Google Play downloads for Priv-only Android system apps, it appears that less that 50k units have been sold to date.
    Please, just stop with that base to forecast sales ... it's just too messy and complex to be relevant.
    12-18-15 11:06 AM
  7. DrBoomBotz's Avatar
    Well, if ASP is up and sales are down ... means at least Priv has offset BB110 and/or BBOS sales plunge ...
    As I wrote previously in another thread, this ^^^ and many comments to come are "wet fingers" estimates; I'm yet to read a statement leading in a bad direction regarding future sales
    Dude I don't know what you are talking about!
    mikeo007 likes this.
    12-18-15 11:06 AM
  8. JeepBB's Avatar
    Oh dear.

    I really thought the Priv might have pushed sales north of 800k.

    It's obviously selling, because the ASP has increased, but not enough to make a difference.

    Unless next quarter's Priv sales are out-of-this-world good, then the 5M devices to break even target isn't even close to being achievable.

    Share price increase is presumably keyed off the relatively positive software news?
    12-18-15 11:12 AM
  9. JeepBB's Avatar
    Would definitely like to know the phone sales breakdown between Priv, BB10, and BBOS phones.
    BB have previously given percentage figures for the BB10:BBOS split. The fact that they have now discontinued this practice now can't be viewed in a positive way for Priv sales IMHO.

    If the Priv had sold like hot cakes, Chen would have said so.

    However, based on Google Play downloads for Priv-only Android system apps, it appears that less that 50k units have been sold to date.
    Yes, it's kind of funny isn't it.

    After all the confusion and debate over what the GPS download count really meant, it now seems pretty obvious that the Priv has sold in the tens of thousands rather than in 100's of thousands... and that the GPS numbers are probably pretty representative - setting a maximum sales figure of around 50k.
    12-18-15 11:22 AM
  10. mnc76's Avatar
    Well, if the ASP for non-Priv phones (in Canadian dollars) has stayed at $240, and the Priv costs $800, then we get the following equation, where

    700,000 = #of total units sold
    x = #of Priv units sold,
    700,000 - x = #of non-Privs sold
    800 = Priv ASP
    240 = Non-Priv ASP
    315 = ASP for this quarter

    Then

    (800x + 240*(700,000 - x))/700,000 = 315

    Solving for #of Priv units sold gives 93,750.

    Take that for what it is

    Please correct any of my input numbers (I may have gotten currencies mixed up between USD and CAD).

    Posted via CB10
    JeepBB and TGR1 like this.
    12-18-15 11:31 AM
  11. DrBoomBotz's Avatar
    Apologies for my last post.

    What I should have said is.
    I thought we had established that the Priv just did not have time or availability to have an first order effect on recognized revenue units.
    I would also think that it would not significantly goose the ASP for the same reason.

    What I am suggesting is that the higher priced BB10 units (Passport) are now a bigger percentage of recognized revenue units. I worry that I will not be understood .
    Last edited by DrBoomBotz; 12-18-15 at 12:17 PM.
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    12-18-15 11:36 AM
  12. blackberrybrad's Avatar
    Can we all agree to stop doing math. Seriously you just can't pull numbers our of thin air and think you are calculating anything relevant.

    As I understand the 5 million goal is for sustained hardware business. If Chen hits break even he will be happy and will look for growth from. It is also a 5 million sales target starting Q1 2017.

    Posted via CB10
    12-18-15 11:56 AM
  13. JeepBB's Avatar
    Can we all agree to stop doing math. Seriously you just can't pull numbers our of thin air and think you are calculating anything relevant.

    As I understand the 5 million goal is for sustained hardware business. If Chen hits break even he will be happy and will look for growth from. It is also a 5 million sales target starting Q1 2017.
    I thought the calculation above looked pretty sound actually, and being based on the ASP and sales numbers is surely a better basis than counting the number of google trend searches and Tweets!

    I can believe the Priv sold around 90k units.

    Chen has stated that 5M/year in device sales will be the break-even point. He has never, to my knowledge, stated that he's starting to count from Q1-2017. When Chen announced his yearly target, most independent observers would I think believe that he meant from the date he made the statement.

    I'm afraid when I hear statements that BB haven't started counting yet, I hear the usual CB apologist stance of "wait until next quarter" and am reminded of children playing Hide & Seek when the game doesn't go their way... "I haven't started counting yet!!"
    TGR1 and anon(9188202) like this.
    12-18-15 12:33 PM
  14. RyanGermann's Avatar
    Can we all agree to stop doing math. Seriously you just can't pull numbers our of thin air and think you are calculating anything relevant.

    As I understand the 5 million goal is for sustained hardware business. If Chen hits break even he will be happy and will look for growth from. It is also a 5 million sales target starting Q1 2017.
    Every time BlackBerry releases a new device, and the weeks-later device sales figures are announced, they always underwhelm, and the quarter after that, the underwhelmence continues.

    BlackBerry needs to sell 1.5 million devices per quarter.

    A device sells more at launch than it typically does in the months after launch (if the launch is broad).

    BlackBerry cripples it's launch, limiting it to a few countries to dip their toe gingerly in. They don't want to overproduce devices for a simultaneous world-wide launch that MIGHT fail and leave them with countless unsold devices in inventory.

    It's all very prudent.

    But to expect that the device sales figures on the March 18th call are going to be ~2 million is delusional, if only based on what we've seen repeated time and time again.

    Blame it on the BlackBerry brand. Blame it on the specs of the device. Blame it on BlackBerry marketing / product management ineptitude.

    But it's the same story every. single. time.

    Hopefulness is a good thing... but we how have enough historical data with recent BB device launches (of course the new variable is "this one's Android!") to know how this works.

    The one unchanging variable is BlackBerry management's approach to device launches. I don't really see how this is any different apart from the fact that maybe the "app gap" is now filled, but we're still in a world where (oversimplification alert!) devices with "home buttons" vastly outsell devices that lack them, and yet this simple device feature seems to elude BlackBerry handset designers. So, why should anything change?
    JeepBB and Troy Tiscareno like this.
    12-18-15 12:35 PM
  15. DrBoomBotz's Avatar
    It is also a 5 million sales target starting Q1 2017.
    Is that date fiscal or calendar?
    12-18-15 12:43 PM
  16. DrBoomBotz's Avatar
    Ok 93k units is first order effect and I'm going back to bed now.
    12-18-15 01:05 PM
  17. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Launch in 31 countries by February 2016 is what catched my attention. Yes they've been - as expected and advertised by Chen several Qs ago - very prudent with launch inventory.
    But now, they can afford the risk.
    Let's go.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    12-18-15 05:07 PM
  18. DrBoomBotz's Avatar
    The chart predicted 500,000 legacy units.
    For an overall ASP of $315.00 that would mean 200,000 Privs and a legacy ASP of $120.00.
    I think its more likely that the sold 90,000 Privs plus 610,000 legacy devices with an ASP of $240.00.
    Even though we don't know the exact ASP of the legacy devices I think we can say the legacy devices sold better than expected.
    Last edited by DrBoomBotz; 12-19-15 at 08:10 AM.
    12-18-15 05:19 PM
  19. DrBoomBotz's Avatar
    Launch in 31 countries by February 2016 is what catched my attention. Yes they've been - as expected and advertised by Chen several Qs ago - very prudent with launch inventory.
    But now, they can afford the risk.
    Let's go.

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    Nothing went horribly wrong with the launch and they got the first update out in a timely manner.
    Time to open the throttle.
    Superfly_FR likes this.
    12-18-15 05:22 PM
  20. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    That's probably my thoughts, in a more efficient English !

    Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android
    12-18-15 05:27 PM
  21. JBhar's Avatar
    BlackBerry doesn't sell to resellers or carriers for $800 so that math is wrong.

    Posted via CB10
    12-19-15 01:15 PM
  22. Nogrentain's Avatar
    The BB Priv sells for 700 USD, so right off the bat you're wrong. I'm not sure what the Priv's ASP is, but it would be closer to 120k with your calculations.

    At any rate, this is painfully clear that Chen never intended to attempt to use the priv to reach 5 million units a year in sales. If he did, and with current sales of non priv phones, BB needs to sustain 150k privs a months plus in sales. They shouldn't be having so many shortages in sales and should have seen more sales this quarter. I am extremely disappointed. Either Chen intends to kill hardware and was never serious, or it's other devices down the pipeline as well that'll help get BB back up to 5 mil a year.
    12-19-15 11:31 PM
  23. TGR1's Avatar
    Every time BlackBerry releases a new device, and the weeks-later device sales figures are announced, they always underwhelm, and the quarter after that, the underwhelmence continues.

    BlackBerry needs to sell 1.5 million devices per quarter.
    Minor correction: 1.25 million (based on 5 million yearly being bandied about recently)
    12-20-15 03:20 AM
  24. KNEBB's Avatar
    Again, if the Priv was really slotted to be so influential in the sales and recovery of the stock, why wasn't it released running both OS's ,to maximize the exposure.

    It could have produced sales from both types of buyers, looking for a new BlackBerry Flagship and possibly doubled the Holiday sales figures.





































    Posted via CB10
    12-20-15 07:01 AM
  25. DrBoomBotz's Avatar
    Again, if the Priv was really slotted to be so influential in the sales and recovery of the stock, why wasn't it released running both OS's ,to maximize the exposure.

    It could have produced sales from both types of buyers, looking for a new BlackBerry Flagship and possibly doubled the Holiday sales figures.
    <snip/>
    That's a rhetorical question isn't it?
    12-20-15 08:32 AM
41 12

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