[blackberrybrad]

The Priv was released to get attention and to get the hardware division to break even. Once they break even it makes more sense to make additional investment.

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[DrBoomBotz]

The Priv was released to get attention and to get the hardware division to break even. Once they break even it makes more sense to make additional investment.

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You mean investment in BB10?

[blackberrybrad]

You mean investment in BB10?

Ya no. No one is investing further into BB10.

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[Eric Banta1]

Can someone explain this to me. How can all of the following possibly be true? These are all things chen said in earnings call. (1) Flat or marginal revenue increase next quarter. (2) 5 mil device sales to break even (3) Devices will be profitable next quarter. If they sold 1.25 million devices next quarter even at ASP of 400 they would have 500 million from hardware revenue alone. That would kill this quarters revenue, not be a marginal increase as Chen said.

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[DrBoomBotz]

Can someone explain this to me. How can all of the following possibly be true? These are all things chen said in earnings call. (1) Flat or marginal revenue increase next quarter. (2) 5 mil device sales to break even (3) Devices will be profitable next quarter. If they sold 1.25 million devices next quarter even at ASP of 400 they would have 500 million from hardware revenue alone. That would kill this quarters revenue, not be a marginal increase as Chen said.

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Just a guess but it makes more sense if (1) is for the whole business and not just hardware.

[Eric Banta1]

It is. But whole business this quarter was 550ish. If hardware is 500 alone next quarter then total revenue would be way over 550.

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[DrBoomBotz]

It is. But whole business this quarter was 550ish. If hardware is 500 alone next quarter then total revenue would be way over 550.

Posted via CB10

Yeah but imagine another part of the company does not deliver next quarter.
I have one in mind.

[Troy Tiscareno]

Remember that BB gets once-a-year refunds for taxes, and also for things it licenses. Perhaps those are in this Q's numbers but he knows it won't be in next Q's.

But I'm also damn sure that BB isn't even going to BUILD 1.25M Privs, much less sell that many. I'd be surprised if they build more than 500K units over the next 90 days.

[jimmyt1]

It's there in the report to see.

Licensing revenue had a one time payment ($53mm) and no recurring revenue until FY18. These deals take a long time to work out and Chen suggested there wasn't likely any new deal that would be secured in Q4. Tax recovery shows up in eps and balance sheet, and ultimately to cash. Naturally, as they move toward profitability, they will have less tax recovery. But again, no impact to revenues.

System access fee revenue is ultimately going to zero, but it still registered $173mm in Q3. They project 18% decline quarterly. So rounding up, that's $34mm to vanish.

So right out of the gate, they have -$87mm vs Q3 to make up. So projecting a flat to slight revenue growth over Q3 is a nice positive for real operating revenue.

Remember that BB gets once-a-year refunds for taxes, and also for things it licenses. Perhaps those are in this Q's numbers but he knows it won't be in next Q's.

But I'm also damn sure that BB isn't even going to BUILD 1.25M Privs, much less sell that many. I'd be surprised if they build more than 500K units over the next 90 days.

[nt300]

Every time BlackBerry releases a new device, and the weeks-later device sales figures are announced, they always underwhelm, and the quarter after that, the underwhelmence continues.

BlackBerry needs to sell 1.5 million devices per quarter.

A device sells more at launch than it typically does in the months after launch (if the launch is broad).

BlackBerry cripples it's launch, limiting it to a few countries to dip their toe gingerly in. They don't want to overproduce devices for a simultaneous world-wide launch that MIGHT fail and leave them with countless unsold devices in inventory.

BINGO.
I kind of agree with the companies strategy not to release a massive amount of phones to the world. But choosing strategic countries for its launch is important. But even more important is MARKETING. Something BBRY continues to STINK AT. If they do not rectify the marketing issues, how else will they sell phones? John Chen is completely Blind to Marketing. He's clearly demonstrated he knows nothing about 1) Devices, 2) Marketing, 3) Hardware Overall.

He may know a thing or two about Software, but he's killing hardware in the process. Where in FACT, if he plays (Played) Hardware Properly, didn't cheap out on Marketing, actually release phones people ACTUALLY want (Z30 Upgrade, Z10 Upgrade etc.,), the Hardware Division would have GROWN (Approx: 100k to 500k per Quarter more sales). And behind it so would the Software Division. By hampering the Hardware Division, which he's been doing ever since he became CEO, he's greatly hampered the software division too.

Sure Software may be growing, it would have Grown 10x more if he concentrated on the right Smartphone releases & marketing strategies. Looking at BBRY's performance, and based on my research, JC continues to seem Clueless.... lol

[nt300]

You mean investment in BB10?

lol

BB10 is the only secure mobile OS end to end. So yes they will continue to develop it as much as possible. This Priv IMO is meant to attract new customers to BBRY's device portfolio. The problem is though, they need one more high end BB10 full touch, such as a Z30 replacement with a larger screen. Millions are counting on them doing such a thing. The Priv is a downgrade over the Z30 "Obviously".

[anon(8163415)]

The Priv was released to get attention and to get the hardware division to break even. Once they break even it makes more sense to make additional investment.

Posted via CB10

Yes Correct. That's the companies strategy. Providing it actually works. But they still need to release a high end BB10, none physical keyboard phone for 2016. I would say a Z30 replacement, seeing how the Z30 was and still is a superior device.
Picture the Priv as a temp solution to help gain new customers. If people think BlackBerry is going to abandon its home grown superior BB10 OS for a Foreign OS (Android) that's unexpandable & pretty much leads to a dead end, you are in serious need of medication.

[blackberrybrad]

Yes Correct. That's the companies strategy. Providing it actually works. But they still need to release a high end BB10, none physical keyboard phone for 2016. I would say a Z30 replacement, seeing how the Z30 was and still is a superior device.
Picture the Priv as a temp solution to help gain new customers. If people think BlackBerry is going to abandon its home grown superior BB10 OS for a Foreign OS (Android) that's unexpandable & pretty much leads to a dead end, you are in serious need of medication.

Who is going to buy that BB10 high end touch screen Z30 replacement?

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[blackberrybrad]

lol

BB10 is the only secure mobile OS end to end. So yes they will continue to develop it as much as possible. This Priv IMO is meant to attract new customers to BBRY's device portfolio. The problem is though, they need one more high end BB10 full touch, such as a Z30 replacement with a larger screen. Millions are counting on them doing such a thing. The Priv is a downgrade over the Z30 "Obviously".

Yes it is a secure mobile OS end to end if you are a BES subscriber. They are not going to make a BB10 full touch Z30 replacement.

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[DrBoomBotz]

It's there in the report to see.

Licensing revenue had a one time payment ($53mm) and no recurring revenue until FY18. These deals take a long time to work out and Chen suggested there wasn't likely any new deal that would be secured in Q4. Tax recovery shows up in eps and balance sheet, and ultimately to cash. Naturally, as they move toward profitability, they will have less tax recovery. But again, no impact to revenues.

System access fee revenue is ultimately going to zero, but it still registered $173mm in Q3. They project 18% decline quarterly. So rounding up, that's $34mm to vanish.

So right out of the gate, they have -$87mm vs Q3 to make up. So projecting a flat to slight revenue growth over Q3 is a nice positive for real operating revenue.

Also maybe the statement under promises so they can over deliver, which is not a bad thing.

[jimmyt1]

Definitely. Blackberry has been down and out for so long, it's of no benefit to be optimistic at this point. Simply deliver - because everyone is still betting against them.

Also maybe the statement under promises so they can over deliver, which is not a bad thing.