1. kbfunk's Avatar
    I would like to share my thoughts (or maybe just dreams) and predictions with regards to the tabled Fairfax deal today and Blackberry's stock price moving forward.
    Firstly, much to my relief an offer was tabled today even though its in my opinion it is on the "very light side" of what I feel Blackberry would be worth under the helm of someone other than the incompetent Mr. Heins. Secondly it found it quite interesting that 120M+ combined (US and Canada) shares were traded today, most of which being at a discount to the $9.00 / share US offer. Obviously many of the shares were just being recycled (bought and sold and then bought again...) but my guess is many of the shares were being sold by those not seeing the complete picture once the stock began trading again after the brief halt announcing the offer. My guess is also that many of these discounted shares were being purchased hard and fast by the likes of Fairfax Financial or representing brokerages. In my opinion it pretty much behooves them not to be jumping all over discounted shares with the idea that if they could acquire a couple hundred million of them or more over the next days, averaging a let say a 25 cent discount, they could save $50M dollars or more their $9.00 offer price. Makes sense to me.
    This being the case; the more shares they acquire, the tighter they will be held and ultimately upon news or another event such as another offer on Blackberry (which I fully expect to come in... maybe two or three and obviously for more than $9.00 a share) this would make the shares more valuable being that they would be more tightly held by Fairfax and others. Now visualize some good news (BBM actually gets launched or BB reports some major new accounts (because many companies are now soothed by the fact that it looks like BB will still be in business a year from now or a bid or two comes in a couple of bucks more per share. God only knows what could happen, and my guess is something will that will to effectively spike the stock price up maybe as much as a few dollars per share.
    Now visualize yourself as one of the shorts on this stock that just shorted the stock to lets say to 5 - 7 bucks the second the second the news was released that BB was going to loose a billion dollars and revenue for the quarter was down almost 1/2 of what it should have be. They stock takes a few dollar jump with no end in sight of it coming back down and you (the short) are about to eat as much as 5 bucks a share maybe more if you don't get out now. The stock starts taking off and the shorts begin buying as fast as possible to save there sorry asses, driving the tightly held stock up even more. My guess is we could see a true short-squeeze if any of this were to come true and the stock potentially price hit 12 - 20 dollars a share or even more with 30% of the shares being held by shorts. **** happens. This could happen... and if it did, obviously the Fairfax offer or any other offer for that matter would quickly fizzle out but at the same time Fairfax winds up holding the lions share of the 500M+ shares and now they are worth 20 dollars a share. $$$ Cha Ching!!! Seems like a win, win scenario and some pretty savvy business sense by Fairfax who could come out of this smelling better than any freshly picked Blackberry could ever begin to smell with their money back and then some. If none of it come to fruition and Fairfax winds up stealing BB for $4.7B they still wind up being the big winners only now it is is a little longer term, thats all and they wind up hitting the elusive home-run either way.
    Just a thought...
    freedomx20a likes this.
    09-23-13 10:42 PM
  2. eddy_berry's Avatar
    Wow. Interesting analysis. Can't wait to see how this all plays out.
    09-23-13 10:47 PM
  3. BergerKing's Avatar
    Here are all the threads that currently have discussions related to Fairfax. I understand your passion, but redundant threads only dilute the conversation.

    09-23-13 10:47 PM

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