[antoscimento]

BlackBerry: EPS Impact From 200,000 Passport Pre-Orders Is Good News - BlackBerry Ltd. (NASDAQ:BBRY) | Seeking Alpha

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[AnimalPak200]

I think the thread title should be: "BlackBerry only *needs to sell* 470,000 Passports"

[antoscimento]

I think the thread title should be: "BlackBerry only *needs to sell* 470,000 Passports"

Hey u r right but dunno how to change it now...

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[zocster]

Title changed, it is promising indeed.

[anon(8865116)]

Hmm, I couldn't read the whole article but there are tons of other things to consider beyond just passport revenue to break even. I heard something about a huge royalty program ending next month which would save blackberry tons in operating costs. Honestly, with the z3 and the passport, I would HOPE a lot of Q4 would be just profit from handsets BUT you never know what JC is doing with his profit. I know he has a lot of business smarts and is probably going to hire more high level execs, and potentially make more acquisitions. My gut feeling is that he could get the EPS over .05 if he strictly relied on cutting costs through the quarter. HOWEVER, that would bite him in Q4.

I'm kind of ranting at this point with no clear point. I'm a big investor so I look at this everyday even though I shouldn't with my day job >_>. I'm very concerned for 2015 and beyond. I still see no clear direction with IOT, QNX's revenue is still not growing impressively, and finally, is the classic really going to be the only device delivered before fiscal 2016? You have so many people waiting for a great touchscreen and I think you're just going to lose them. I'm not a high level executive, I know chen is dealing with this everyday. If he focuses more on handsets, it shows that he's going through with the same approach as Thorsten which is dangerous. That is to say, you might sell more handsets but lose out on what could happen if you focused more on the enterprise software side. On the other hand, if you focus more on software, your handsets suffer from design and marketing (only 2 important things of many), while your loyal consumers who buy the handsets could leave because they feel like they're getting short changed by overpriced handsets.

ramble ramble ramble sorry!

[antoscimento]

Title changed, it is promising indeed.

Hey thanks.

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[FSeverino]

That us to break even for passport production, if anything. But, they need about 10m to break even on a whole, so they need at least 2m passports.

Posted via CB10

[Prem WatsApp]

Hmm, I couldn't read the whole article but there are tons of other things to consider beyond just passport revenue to break even. I heard something about a huge royalty program ending next month which would save blackberry tons in operating costs. Honestly, with the z3 and the passport, I would HOPE a lot of Q4 would be just profit from handsets BUT you never know what JC is doing with his profit. I know he has a lot of business smarts and is probably going to hire more high level execs, and potentially make more acquisitions. My gut feeling is that he could get the EPS over .05 if he strictly relied on cutting costs through the quarter. HOWEVER, that would bite him in Q4.

I'm kind of ranting at this point with no clear point. I'm a big investor so I look at this everyday even though I shouldn't with my day job >_>. I'm very concerned for 2015 and beyond. I still see no clear direction with IOT, QNX's revenue is still not growing impressively, and finally, is the classic really going to be the only device delivered before fiscal 2016? You have so many people waiting for a great touchscreen and I think you're just going to lose them. I'm not a high level executive, I know chen is dealing with this everyday. If he focuses more on handsets, it shows that he's going through with the same approach as Thorsten which is dangerous. That is to say, you might sell more handsets but lose out on what could happen if you focused more on the enterprise software side. On the other hand, if you focus more on software, your handsets suffer from design and marketing (only 2 important things of many), while your loyal consumers who buy the handsets could leave because they feel like they're getting short changed by overpriced handsets.

ramble ramble ramble sorry!

Have you noticed who BBRY has been split up in 4 or more departments (Messaging, Enterprise, Handsets, QNX.., etc) which should prevent the scenario you're describing. That way R&D resources are not cannibalized or are cannibalizing each other, so all departments make progress.

Very smart setup, I reckon.

? BlackBerry? I premdict the future's gonna be chenomenal! ?

[anon(8865116)]

Have you noticed who BBRY has been split up in 4 or more departments (Messaging, Enterprise, Handsets, QNX.., etc) which should prevent the scenario you're describing. That way R&D resources are not cannibalized or are cannibalizing each other, so all departments make progress.

Very smart setup, I reckon.

? BlackBerry? I premdict the future's gonna be chenomenal! ?

I don't agree. If anything, it just clearly defines for senior management what their individual, departmental goals are. The corporate politics do not go away. JC still has x money to distribute amongst y departments. It's just simpler to budget and say, I spent 15 million on messaging this year and only got a return of 10 instead of having some department head go well we couldn't use 15% of that money because it went to another department under the same division because of this excuse and that excuse. Essentially, it's easier to measure the ROI of a product by separating the products this way.

However, it should have no direct effect on the eps. The division head will now just have a clear idea of 'am I making JC money?'. If not, I should probably start doing my job before I get fired. The other thing a departmental structure like this is good for is selling off products to other companies. Let's hope that doesn't happen unless it's a really good offer.

[abwan11]

[QUOTE=mtthwmtthw;10905352] I heard something about a huge royalty program ending next month which would save blackberry tons in operating costs.

I heard it too, the CFO said it was 800 million, starting in November. Then I blacked out.

Posted via CB10

[world traveler and former ceo]

They likely have an existing BACKLOG of 475,000 passports now!... they will surpass all their optimistic estimates for the BlackBerry Passport....

Next quarter should be excellent for BlackBerry!

From my awesome Passport

Posted via CB10

[qwerty4ever]

I'm kind of ranting at this point with no clear point. I'm a big investor so I look at this everyday even though I shouldn't with my day job >_>. I'm very concerned for 2015 and beyond.
ramble ramble ramble sorry!

If you can't afford to loose money don't gamble in the stock market. The house always wins except when they are luring in new players...I mean investors. Unless BlackBerry is 100% profitable by the next earnings report the so-called turnaround will have been a failure. I was expecting the Z3 and Passport to push the company into net profit state by now. The early sales estimates for the BlackBerry Passport look favourable although we can't read too much into sales by two e-commerce websites. The focus on Google Android apps is worrisome to say the least. Maybe we expected too much of BlackBerry so we'll never be satisfied and never have smartphones which used to set the industry standard during the pre-consumer days. Don't get me wrong...I think the BlackBerry Passport is an interesting concept although the apparent lack of an HDMI (micro-HDMI) port and no docking station to enable a drop-in-desktop replacement usability scenario hints at a repetition of the tepid steps of previous management. I would buy a BlackBerry Passport in a heartbeat if and only if it provides a true desktop drop-in replacement in terms of applications (native on device and/or remote desktop environment and/or webapps (hosted or internal) and of course secure shell functionality. BlackBerry could become the de facto professional smartphone if say a lawyer can drop-into a docking station the smartphone and use a full-size keyboard, mouse, and monitor with standard desktop environment usability while at his office, pick-up the smartphone from the docking station as he heads to a meeting with a client or an appearance in court, and even get some work done at home using a docking station, keyboard, mouse, and monitor while remotely connected to applications at his office.

Now I'm rambling... Anyway, the December earnings report will be John Chen's Alamo.

[qwerty4ever]

They likely have an existing BACKLOG of 475,000 passports now!... they will surpass all their optimistic estimates for the BlackBerry Passport....

Next quarter should be excellent for BlackBerry!

From my awesome Passport

Posted via CB10

Many of us thought and said the same thing when the BlackBerry Z10 was released. Maybe we should temper out enthusiasm and optimism a wee bit to avoid that let-down feeling in our stomachs. That said, 475,000 devices sold is a pittance on the global scale against a tsunami of competitors selling Apple iPhones and Google Android smartphones. And BlackBerry must address the ability of modern forensic software to decrypt the device including device passwords with apparent ease.

[igor10000]

If you can't afford to loose money don't gamble in the stock market. The house always wins except when they are luring in new players...I mean investors. Unless BlackBerry is 100% profitable by the next earnings report the so-called turnaround will have been a failure. I was expecting the Z3 and Passport to push the company into net profit state by now. The early sales estimates for the BlackBerry Passport look favourable although we can't read too much into sales by two e-commerce websites. The focus on Google Android apps is worrisome to say the least. Maybe we expected too much of BlackBerry so we'll never be satisfied and never have smartphones which used to set the industry standard during the pre-consumer days. Don't get me wrong...I think the BlackBerry Passport is an interesting concept although the apparent lack of an HDMI (micro-HDMI) port and no docking station to enable a drop-in-desktop replacement usability scenario hints at a repetition of the tepid steps of previous management. I would buy a BlackBerry Passport in a heartbeat if and only if it provides a true desktop drop-in replacement in terms of applications (native on device and/or remote desktop environment and/or webapps (hosted or internal) and of course secure shell functionality. BlackBerry could become the de facto professional smartphone if say a lawyer can drop-into a docking station the smartphone and use a full-size keyboard, mouse, and monitor with standard desktop environment usability while at his office, pick-up the smartphone from the docking station as he heads to a meeting with a client or an appearance in court, and even get some work done at home using a docking station, keyboard, mouse, and monitor while remotely connected to applications at his office.

Now I'm rambling... Anyway, the December earnings report will be John Chen's Alamo.

Ever heard of BlackBerry Blend?

Posted via CB10

[BluejayChip]

I thought the number reported to break even by John Chen on the Passport launch day was 240K handsets...Maybe the difference is in handsets sold directly vs. Carrier discounted devices????



Posted via Z10

[MarsupilamiX]

Ever heard of BlackBerry Blend?

Posted via CB10

Blend is severally limited compared to a dedicated docking station for example.
And if you are working on your PC anyhow, why would you want to use your smartphone apps, if pretty much every PC program is a better choice?

I honestly fail to see the appeal of Blend, or the iOS version of it.
Do my mails suddenly stop to synch with my Outlook, because I use a mobile phone as well?

Posted via CB10

[spikesolie]

Blend is severally limited compared to a dedicated docking station for example.
And if you are working on your PC anyhow, why would you want to use your smartphone apps, if pretty much every PC program is a better choice?

I honestly fail to see the appeal of Blend, or the iOS version of it.
Do my mails suddenly stop to synch with my Outlook, because I use a mobile phone as well?

Posted via CB10

You have to use it to understand it is my understanding.

Posted from zee flicking coolest smartphone evah!

[Prem WatsApp]

Many of us thought and said the same thing when the BlackBerry Z10 was released. Maybe we should temper out enthusiasm and optimism a wee bit to avoid that let-down feeling in our stomachs. That said, 475,000 devices sold is a pittance on the global scale against a tsunami of competitors selling Apple iPhones and Google Android smartphones. And BlackBerry must address the ability of modern forensic software to decrypt the device including device passwords with apparent ease.

OT, but could you elaborate on the device decryption by forensic software a bit...

? ? ? Passposted via CB Chen ? ? ?

[MarsupilamiX]

You have to use it to understand it is my understanding.

Posted from zee flicking coolest smartphone evah!

I saw about 10 demos by now, and I still don't see it, so I really doubt that using it would change my opinion, since I see no reason to incorporate Blend into my workflow.
But who knows...

Posted via CB10

[birdman_38]

I saw about 10 demos by now, and I still don't see it, so I really doubt that using it would change my opinion, since I see no reason to incorporate Blend into my workflow.
But who knows...

Posted via CB10

The thing with Blend is BlackBerry is once again asking users to develop new habits. Same thing with BB 10's gestures and the Passport's three row keyboard. Look at how Windows 8 flopped. It's because Microsoft expected users to change their habits.

Consumers just want stuff they are familiar with and that works.

[Prem WatsApp]

The SA article is wrong, he said on the 9/26 conf call w/ over 200,000 orders the phone is already profitable.

Thanks. I heard that, too.
And Chen's the man... :-)

? ? ? Passposted via CB Chen ? ? ?

[qwerty4ever]

OT, but could you elaborate on the device decryption by forensic software a bit...

? ? ? Passposted via CB Chen ? ? ?

I read an article about smartphone decryption by law enforcement and in the article a forensic software vendor's name was mentioned but I cannot remember the name at the moment. It was definitely the device password and BlackBerry 10 smartphones. If I find the article I'll post the URL.

[John Vieira]

Legally, you don't have to give the cops your password. It's the same as denying them entrance to your front door. (we'll assume these cops respect laws)

Now, they CAN ask you for your fingerprint, which means they can force you to unlock any device with your finger, but that's an aside.

When the police really wants to get your information out of your phone, they have a small machine that plugs right into the USB port, which proceeds to decrypt your phone, and dump all its data.

However. BB10 and WindowsPhone aren't susceptible to that. Why you ask? Well, we could say it's good security. But honestly, just like for apps and everything else, it's lack of compatibility.

Simply enough people don't use those two platforms for the makers of that device to add those capabilities.

Now, can they? I've heard talk that they can decrypt WP and legacy Blackberry. Just have to add the support.

But I've heard nothing about BB10.

This could have changed, and I'm simply not aware of it.

Passport on Wind

[John Vieira]

It's not an app, it's a physical machine.

Passport on Wind

[John Vieira]

I dunno the name of it. Look it up, Google that stuff


Passport on Wind