[rowanhill]

Hi CB. My first post here. I've been working in the mobile and sw industry for almost 2 decades in several roles from SW engineering to CIO so I would like to think I know at least a little bit about the stuff. Can't tell much more about myself because of NDA's (and personal preference), but I've been following the BB situation for quite a while now and this is my letter to Blackberry about the future of the BB devices, BB10 OS, the hub, Facebook on BB and so on. Oh, and I have the Passport as my business device.

Blackberry devices
To begin with Blackberry (and everyone) should really understand PKB is a niche thing and it's not coming back to mainstream. But if done properly, the support and fan base would be one of a kind in the mobile space. The users who want a PKB pretty much already know how it works when implemented properly from the ground up. And that can't be done on top of Android. So Blackberry is ending up with a "worst of both worlds" scenario with Android; the kb is just a forced addition to an OS that is designed for touch UI. All the essential apps, functions, menus etc, even the screen proportions are designed for touch. On top of that designing and manufacturing a PKB, especially like the one on Priv, is difficult and expensive task. So it's mostly just adding weight and complexity to the device and significantly adding to the bill of materials and manufacturing costs making the pricing for end users very much off. Pretty horrible trade-off.

Honestly I don't see any future for Blackberry with Android. The competition is just too fierce, electronics giants like Samsung and LG pushing from the top while Google itself and small manufacturers like Oneplus are filling the lower price group with absolutely brilliant devices. Adding a PKB on top of mediocre device is not attracting any new customers looking to purchase an Android phone, and it's disappointing for the group mentioned above. I don't believe the users are following the Blackberry logo, they follow the alternative it promises. And if the alternative is watered down and useless, they will look other way.

And in case of a touch only Blackberry Android device I'm gonna ask: Why would anyone buy that? What are the key selling points? The hub? No, it has exactly the same issues on Android it has on BB10 OS. More about that later.

This might sound crazy, but Blackberry should still focus on BB10 OS and adjust their sales targets accordingly. That is the only strategy that has survival as an option. Starting from 200k to 500k device sales per year with 100-200USD profit per device should keep things rolling, and it's something that is achievable when done properly. Focus on the marketing, be the alternative without user data gathering, advertising, constant interference etc. Be the stress free, secure and professional option and the growth will follow. Oh, and specs have to be somewhat on par with the competition. Doesn't have to be the bleeding edge, but no more 3-year-old CPU's.

How to tackle the app gap
Focus on the essentials. Lobby for the platform in the developer space. Pay proper money to get the apps natively implemented for the BB10 OS. Hire right people to do the lobbying. I know for a fact that porting a chat app client is not a big of a deal, pay for the job and maintenance, make compromises and promises.

Just forget the rest. Again, keep the focus on your users, they can live without the latest games and video streaming social experience. The app install rate is anyway declining on every platform, but e.g. Facebook messenger is a must.

In the meantime, keep up the good work with the browser. The Passport browsing experience in one of the best ever in mobile devices and it mitigates the app gap issue a lot. But also that will require nurturing; component updates, bugfixes, new features etc.

The hub
Messengers don't want to be part of the device, they want to own the device. There is no way Facebook will implement an integration of any sort to any 3rd party system ever again, including the hub. Same goes for other major chat services. This is probably the real reason why Facebook doesn't support Blackberry. According to different sources BB users might be up to .5% of mobile FB users. That doesn't sound much, but it is, especially because the traffic is coming from the most important parts of the world for Facebook. No company is willing to sacrifice that kind of amount of valuable customers. The investment to serve this group would be minuscule for Facebook, porting the apps is a one man job, but they don't have to do it. Virtually no one is going to stop using Facebook because of the missing BB support, they just use it on other platforms. It's better for Facebook to have users swapping the platform to something more open towards their objective: owning the user data for advertising purposes. That is their business model.

So to get the Messenger and other relevant apps, Blackberry has to be flexible, forget the hub integrations and implement the features demanded by the companies. It's against the very idea of the whole alternative ideology, but in some cases compromises has to be done to enable growth.

The hub is still one of the key things. Combined with the PKB it is the main key selling point. Mails, texts and notifications are not going away any time soon, those are 99% of the whole experience and working great. Again, focus.

Finally
Implementing a focused strategy around the BB10 OS enabled PKB devices (Passport 2, Classic 2), even more polished hub and browser, essential app support (even coming in the future), targeted marketing, realistic sales targets and especially device pricing (mid tier), I'm pretty sure Blackberry could be a thing in the future too. Going all over the place with FrankenBB Android devices will push me and many (most?) others away absolutely 100%.

I'm not sure if Blackberry can reorganize itself to be that company, if not I really hope they would licence their sw / hw manufacturing to a company that can, same way Nokia just did. At the same time Blackberry itself could focus on its struggle in the Android swamp. The problem is that this should happen in 2016 and I'm pretty sure it's not going to happen leaving the BB10 OS to fade away. In that case, let's enjoy the 1-2 years it still has life in it.

[Elephant_Canyon]

BB10 is a dead end. Give up on hope, because it's never staging a comeback.

[Aju]

Chen should have focused on BB10. Especially when he had so much die hard fans and so much people who really cares about real privacy and efficiency. He just had to educate others and just had to shout out to the world about BB10. I am really sure, it would have been a real win!

Posted via CB10

[conite]

Chen should have focused on BB10. Especially when he had so much die hard fans and so much people who really cares about real privacy and efficiency. He just had to educate others and just had to shout out to the world about BB10. I am really sure, it would have been a real win!

Posted via CB10

Chen was brought in AFTER BlackBerry felt BB10 was dead. His job was to transition to software. That's what he was hired for.

They strung BB10 along to keep their feet in the enterprise space while software was ramping up. They are really only getting there now.

[Elite1]

First off, welcome to CrackBerry!
Please update your profile to include device, carrier, and location. This makes it easier for others to interact with you.

It's too bad you didn't give this any thought before posting... Sheesh.
(I'm obviously kidding!)

I agree with you on several points but also strongly disagree with you on others, but even for those I completely understand your perspective.

One comment that you made which always bothers me when I hear it, is a BB enthusiast referring to Android on the Priv (or a future BB Android) as "FrankenBB Android devices." Many a BB10 fanatic has waved away the notion of the Priv, saying "if I wanted an Android, I'd get a real Android phone." Guess what? The Priv is. The "FrankenBerry" notion is ignorant IMO. The BB version of Android is closer to pure Android than many other large Android OEMs, such as Samsung. All that, and the Hub too. Maybe not the BB10 Hub, but close enough to stomach the switch for many BB10 fans, such as yours truly.

What you have to understand is that BB has managed to push away (or at least not retain) users all by themselves for half a decade now. It didn't take a move to Android to do it.

That said, your plan could work as a business model for a very specific niche. If they lower expectations and manage to deliver that product, it might not be what many a BB fan wants, but it might be a business success still. (Albeit on a much smaller scale than where BB used to play.)

[Denise in Los Angeles]

TL;DR...

But I did see the word 'apps' in that wall of text.

No major apps are coming to BB10. EVER.

[Aju]

Chen was brought in AFTER BlackBerry felt BB10 was dead. His job was to transition to software. That's what he was hired for.

They strung BB10 along to keep their feet in the enterprise space while software was ramping up. They are really only getting there now.

Yes...but hardware + software both from BlackBerry was an option which would have become an hard scenario for an enterprise company to push away!

Posted via CB10

[conite]

Yes...but hardware + software both from BlackBerry was an option which would have become an hard scenario for an enterprise company to push away!

Posted via CB10

Most of the enterprise space is BYOD now. They want apps.

Even issued devices didn't have access to native Good, MobileIron, or AirWatch apps.

[Aju]

Most of the enterprise space is BYOD now. They want apps.

Even issued devices didn't have access to native Good, MobileIron, or AirWatch apps.

Bringing apps should have been a major aim!

Posted via CB10

[conite]

Bringing apps should have been a major aim!

Posted via CB10

And it was.

[rowanhill]

Thanks for the warm welcome! Few additional pointers:

1) This was an "armchair CEO" post, so please take it with a grain of salt. However, I really don't believe Blackberry has anything to give to the Android space. Blackberry does not have the agility required (on several fronts) what it comes to successful Android device manufacturing, at all. Just look at the competition. For Oneplus it took two years and three iterations to become a significant player. There is just absolutely no way Blackberry can compete in that market. Adding here: in my honest opinion

2) As I said, it's possibly quite unlikely for Blackberry Ltd to transform itself to a company that would execute a strategy like the one I wrote. But it would be possible for another company if BB would licence the BB10 OS and BB related HW details. And it would be a win-win situation from Chen's perspective as well since I suppose he is still believer of the Android strategy. Are they gonna licence it, or is there an investor brave enough to believe in that? I doubt, but a man can hope.

[Tien-Lin Chang]

The saying of BB10 needs only big apps and can ignore those minor ones was also presented in the Windows phone community before. But in real life those niche apps (bank, local shops, public transport.... You name it) are the key for the total UX in each market your product goes. Porting apps is always an issue when the developer are not willing to do it even you pay them, developers are always chasing for user number. The update pace/functionality will always lacking something as what I observed in wechat on Android vs IOS or QQ on Windows phone vs the rest.

[Powdah]

.A good web browser will replace most apps. Including banking apps business apps etc.

Posted via CB10

[Uzi]

.A good web browser will replace most apps. Including banking apps business apps etc.

Posted via CB10

Yes that's why BlackBerry now replace fb app with browser..browser FTW...lmao

[Aju]

And it was.

Dint see much of that in action!

Posted via CB10

[rowanhill]

The saying of BB10 needs only big apps and can ignore those minor ones was also presented in the Windows phone community before. But in real life those niche apps (bank, local shops, public transport.... You name it) are the key for the total UX in each market your product goes.

Please remember that in my strategy BB would not drive for world domination, but to be an actual 3rd option, the alternative. Windows Phone is actually proving my point.

WP did absolutely achieve this with Nokia, but it wasn't clearly enough for MS and everyone knows the rest. Please see e.g. Kantar world panel data 2013-14.

And even more significant thing to remember is that WP does not posses the key selling points BB does: purpose built SW/HW combination. WP does not actually have any real ksp's over iOS or Android, but still they managed to pull that market share with Nokia only.

Browser is really replacing apps as we speak. The app boom is long gone, average install rate being all time low since 2008 (per user). At the same time mobile web tech is going forward like crazy, finally. And this is not my belief of some sort, I am witnessing this happening in my everyday work, the mobile front end tech is shifting massively from native to JS/HTML(5). Except if it is an essential app. Here's a good summary of the situation: The app boom is over - Recode

[kvndoom]

SSDD.

Passport SE, "The BlockBerry" - Cricket Wireless

[rowanhill]

SSDD.

Can I ask what's your point? Isn't this supposed to be a speculation forum or have I misunderstood something? We could have 1000 threads repeating everything related to BB is dead, but that would be quite boring.

[kvndoom]

Can I ask what's your point? Isn't this supposed to be a speculation forum or have I misunderstood something? We could have 1000 threads repeating everything related to BB is dead, but that would be quite boring.

We already have a thousand posts already related to BB10 being dead. And a thousand more will come.

We also have a thousand posts covering every point you just made. And a thousand more will come.

Hence, SSDD.

[Tien-Lin Chang]

Please remember that in my strategy BB would not drive for world domination, but to be an actual 3rd option, the alternative. Windows Phone is actually proving my point.

WP did absolutely achieve this with Nokia, but it wasn't clearly enough for MS and everyone knows the rest. Please see e.g. Kantar world panel data 2013-14.

And even more significant thing to remember is that WP does not posses the key selling points BB does: purpose built SW/HW combination. WP does not actually have any real ksp's over iOS or Android, but still they managed to pull that market share with Nokia only.

Browser is really replacing apps as we speak. The app boom is long gone, average install rate being all time low since 2008 (per user). At the same time mobile web tech is going forward like crazy, finally. And this is not my belief of some sort, I am witnessing this happening in my everyday work, the mobile front end tech is shifting massively from native to JS/HTML(5). Except if it is an essential app. Here's a good summary of the situation: The app boom is over - Recode

I have to disagree the way you look at windows phone's market share

You can see more than half of them are cheap entry level phones - a territory where BlackBerry never reached even with Foxconn helping them. BlackBerry never shown the ability nor intention to fight at that area - so that portion of market share will never fall on BlackBerry....

And being localized has nothing to do with world domination, it just make better UX and easier for people to appreciate your product.

You might be right about the HTML5 web-based application will replace current app working model, however it just not happen yet - it's just like those windows phone fanboy saying how good UWP will be - just not helping current situation. And I think the app boom thing is just because there are less and less "holes" need to be patched by apps like the old days. Take windows phone as example, when you see there are like 15 flashlight apps in the top 30 yet it become a build-in feature in w10m quick launch manu then you know there will be very less people installing them. And there are less and less creative apps coming on the market that excites people, I have "color splash" and "tiltshift" app installed when I got my iPhone 3G and they work well - they still stay in my iPhone 6+ today and I'd never installed other similar apps. It's more obvious when you take a look at windows phone store, when there are tons of talking tom-like apps it's hard to blame the low install rate on the market right?

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

With a little work, I think the Titanic could sail again..... worked for Clive Cussler.

[Uzi]

With a little work, I think the Titanic could sail again..... worked for Clive Cussler.

[kvndoom]

Not far from the truth. On the S.S. Crackberry, they talk nonstop about how it's the best ship EVER BUILT, whilst ignoring the water that's risen up to their necklines.

[rowanhill]

You can see more than half of them are cheap entry level phones
...
You might be right about the HTML5 web-based application will replace current app working model, however it just not happen yet

1) Fair point, but then again that other half was selling figures worth fighting for. Lumia 920 and 820 alone sold several million units. But enough with MS.

2) I don't use apps anymore to book flights, trains, busses, hotels and urban transport. Also things like image uploading, betting, tubing and what not are way better to handle with browser now. Is someone still using an app for Tripadvisor? This change is happening fast and it's happening right now.

For the rest of the replies: yeah all this probably has been said gazillion times already. That happens a lot in the internet.

[Denise in Los Angeles]

The SS BB10 will not sail again. EVER.