10-12-10 11:11 AM
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  1. Lord Vader's Avatar
    Nah, it's a tad less than a quarter, like 23% according to recent surveys.
    Try 50% according to the referenced poll.

    Most people who want an iPhone already have one.
    Bullschit. I know a LOT of people who want one but decline to get one for one reason: they would have to go with AT&T. That alone is what prevents me from switching.
    10-08-10 12:36 AM
  2. Roo Zilla's Avatar
    See from a business perspective Apple needs Verizon far more than Verizon needs Apple. Apple lost market share over the past 6 months to Android which is already on Verizon. The only way for Apple to keep doing well is go to Verizon and other carriers. Thats business 101. I could care less either way, in the end the consumer wins
    Hmmm... Why does Apple need Verizon? They already take in close to 40% of the worldwide mobile phone profit. Let's say for the sake of argument, Verizon gets the iPhone. How many more iPhones do you think Apple will sell? I'm certain they will sell more, the question is how many more. It certainly won't be double. Sure each additional sale is additional profit, but making a CDMA compatible phone incurs R and D, which can be quite expensive. In addition, there's the contract with AT&T to consider. It's been long rumored to be a 5 year contract. I'm sure in such a contract, there are severe provisions for breach of contract, potentially in the hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. Unless sales of Verizon iPhones can offset both these potential expenditures, it makes no sense to make one.

    Considering those two factors, why not just wait it out? In 2 years, both AT&T and Verizon will support LTE. Then there's no need to make a Verizon compatible iPhone, just one iPhone for both carriers, and perhaps with the addition of more frequency bands to support T-Mobile. Then there's no additional R&D expenditure, no additional product line to complicate things in production, and no potential huge payment to AT&T. This scenario makes more sense to me.
    10-08-10 12:47 AM
  3. Roo Zilla's Avatar
    Try 50% according to the referenced poll.
    Don't know what poll you're referencing, but here's the one I'm referencing. Made by Credit Suisse.

    Analyst: Few Would Jump (AT&T's) Ship for a Verizon iPhone

    http://www.tipb.com/2010/09/21/23-at...iphone-survey/

    Credit Suisse: Verizon iPhone will get 1.4M users from AT&T in 2011 | VentureBeat

    MacDailyNews - Survey: 23 percent of AT&T iPhone users would switch to Verizon Wireless

    Survey: 23% of iPhone users would switch to Verizon

    AT&T Not Concerned About iPhone Defections — CEO Boasts That 80% Are Basically Trapped

    Bullschit. I know a LOT of people who want one but decline to get one for one reason: they would have to go with AT&T. That alone is what prevents me from switching.
    I said "most," not "all."
    Last edited by Roo Zilla; 10-08-10 at 12:56 AM.
    10-08-10 12:50 AM
  4. Lord Vader's Avatar
    The one reported by ABC 7 Chicago news, who ran the story on Wednesday.
    10-08-10 12:57 AM
  5. robertrulez's Avatar
    The things I would do for a Sprint iPhone
    10-08-10 12:59 AM
  6. Lord Vader's Avatar
    Agreed.
    10-08-10 01:00 AM
  7. Lynx's Avatar
    Please see the graph below. Apple has deviated about 1% over the past TEN months- 29 to 27 to 28 to 29 to 28 t 27 to 28. Thats surely not losing a ton of marketshare 1% behind where they were ten whole months ago.

    Now look at RIM, they were at 36/37% and have slid all the way to 31% in ten months.

    RIM is giving up WAY more marketshare to Android than Apple by far.
    Look at the other chart that you so conveniently left off that shows the top selling mobile OS over the past 6 months. Android has 32%, Apple 26%, RIM 25%


    http://www.androidcentral.com/androi...-past-6-months
    10-08-10 08:20 AM
  8. Lynx's Avatar
    Hmmm... Why does Apple need Verizon? They already take in close to 40% of the worldwide mobile phone profit. Let's say for the sake of argument, Verizon gets the iPhone. How many more iPhones do you think Apple will sell? I'm certain they will sell more, the question is how many more. It certainly won't be double. Sure each additional sale is additional profit, but making a CDMA compatible phone incurs R and D, which can be quite expensive. In addition, there's the contract with AT&T to consider. It's been long rumored to be a 5 year contract. I'm sure in such a contract, there are severe provisions for breach of contract, potentially in the hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. Unless sales of Verizon iPhones can offset both these potential expenditures, it makes no sense to make one.

    Considering those two factors, why not just wait it out? In 2 years, both AT&T and Verizon will support LTE. Then there's no need to make a Verizon compatible iPhone, just one iPhone for both carriers, and perhaps with the addition of more frequency bands to support T-Mobile. Then there's no additional R&D expenditure, no additional product line to complicate things in production, and no potential huge payment to AT&T. This scenario makes more sense to me.
    I said nothing about why they are making one, or anything about it being a good or bad business move in my previous post. However to answer your question. Over the past 6 months Android OS has outsold every other mobile form platform, and thats fact. Means the Apple is losing market share. Now lets make this really simple. To gain market share back Apple would need to make their phone available to other people. Since Verizon offers the OS that it outselling everybody else they could care less.
    10-08-10 08:33 AM
  9. Roo Zilla's Avatar
    I said nothing about why they are making one, or anything about it being a good or bad business move in my previous post. However to answer your question. Over the past 6 months Android OS has outsold every other mobile form platform, and thats fact. Means the Apple is losing market share. Now lets make this really simple. To gain market share back Apple would need to make their phone available to other people. Since Verizon offers the OS that it outselling everybody else they could care less.
    You mention Apple needing Verizon more than Verizon needs Apple. I don't see it that way.

    You're over-estimating the effect a Verizon iPhone would have on sales. About half the iPhones sold in the world are sold in the US, so approximately 20 million out of 40 million expected to be sold this year. It's highly doubtful they will sell another 20 million just by releasing it to Verizon. Perhaps another few million.

    Loss in market share for iPhone is actually artificial. Supply constraints are making it difficult to fill the orders they already have, let along meet demand. Assuming supply constraints are over by the end of the year, Apple should be able to supply more to meet worldwide demand, and regain market share relatively easily. In China alone, there were pre-orders for over 200,000 which won't be fulfilled until the end of the month. Similar thing happened in Korea last month. It's still ongoing in Canada. Why would Apple concentrate on making a Verizon iPhone right NOW, when they're having problems filling the orders for the regular iPhone?

    Apple has never been a market share oriented company. I'm sure they would love more of it, but Since Jobs took over, they're major concentration has been profits, and profits are through the roof. They already take in 40% of the worldwide mobile phone profit (not just smartphones, ALL mobile phones), how much more is one company really capable of?
    10-08-10 10:50 AM
  10. Lynx's Avatar
    You mention Apple needing Verizon more than Verizon needs Apple. I don't see it that way.

    You're over-estimating the effect a Verizon iPhone would have on sales. About half the iPhones sold in the world are sold in the US, so approximately 20 million out of 40 million expected to be sold this year. It's highly doubtful they will sell another 20 million just by releasing it to Verizon. Perhaps another few million.

    Loss in market share for iPhone is actually artificial. Supply constraints are making it difficult to fill the orders they already have, let along meet demand. Assuming supply constraints are over by the end of the year, Apple should be able to supply more to meet worldwide demand, and regain market share relatively easily. In China alone, there were pre-orders for over 200,000 which won't be fulfilled until the end of the month. Similar thing happened in Korea last month. It's still ongoing in Canada. Why would Apple concentrate on making a Verizon iPhone right NOW, when they're having problems filling the orders for the regular iPhone?

    Apple has never been a market share oriented company. I'm sure they would love more of it, but Since Jobs took over, they're major concentration has been profits, and profits are through the roof. They already take in 40% of the worldwide mobile phone profit (not just smartphones, ALL mobile phones), how much more is one company really capable of?
    Do you work for Apple? No, so stop speculating on what they may or may not be doing. Also the loss of market share is real. HTC had problems filling orders for the Incredible and EVO. Motorola had problems filling orders for the Droid X so your point is moot.

    Apple sold 17 million phones in the time frame you are talking about with profits. The other companies sold 400 million. All that means is Apple makes a cheap product and marks it up exponentially. The number of iPhones sold in the US would at least double if it came to Verizon. Like you said Apply likes to make money, more markets = more phones sold. More phones sold = more profits. Its a brilliant business move.
    10-08-10 01:30 PM
  11. Entertainment72's Avatar
    What, another rumor.. USA Today, Wall Street Journal.. ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
    10-08-10 01:38 PM
  12. Totalimmortal363's Avatar
    Do you work for Apple? No, so stop speculating on what they may or may not be doing. Also the loss of market share is real. HTC had problems filling orders for the Incredible and EVO. Motorola had problems filling orders for the Droid X so your point is moot.

    Apple sold 17 million phones in the time frame you are talking about with profits. The other companies sold 400 million. All that means is Apple makes a cheap product and marks it up exponentially. The number of iPhones sold in the US would at least double if it came to Verizon. Like you said Apply likes to make money, more markets = more phones sold. More phones sold = more profits. Its a brilliant business move.


    You can boil the same logic down to "Apple would sell wayyyy more computers if they liscensed OS X out to manufactures." They'll never do that in the forseeable future. It's about control for them.
    10-08-10 01:46 PM
  13. Lynx's Avatar
    You can boil the same logic down to "Apple would sell wayyyy more computers if they liscensed OS X out to manufactures." They'll never do that in the forseeable future. It's about control for them.
    Not even close to the same logic. What you said would be like saying they would sell more phones if they licensed the iOS to other manufactures. Simply selling your product in more markets is not the same as giving your software to other companies.
    10-08-10 01:52 PM
  14. Roo Zilla's Avatar
    Do you work for Apple? No, so stop speculating on what they may or may not be doing. Also the loss of market share is real. HTC had problems filling orders for the Incredible and EVO. Motorola had problems filling orders for the Droid X so your point is moot.

    Apple sold 17 million phones in the time frame you are talking about with profits. The other companies sold 400 million. All that means is Apple makes a cheap product and marks it up exponentially. The number of iPhones sold in the US would at least double if it came to Verizon. Like you said Apply likes to make money, more markets = more phones sold. More phones sold = more profits. Its a brilliant business move.
    I don't work for Apple.

    Please don't think the supply constraints for those other models are remotely close the what the iPhone 4 has experienced. You're talking a 10X difference.

    Apple sold 17 million iPhones in the first half of this year. It is estimated they will sell around 40-45 million by years end. Each time, I clearly stated that 40 million was for the year.

    As for Apple selling a cheap product they mark up really high... That's the smartphone world. Every high end device costs about $200 to make and they all sell for $500-700. Other companies make low margin products, for example, in Hong Kong, you can easily purchase a $80 Nokia with no contract. Nokia probably makes like $10 on that sale as opposed to Apple making $400 on an iPhone sale. The bulk of worldwide mobile phone sales is for low end stuff. Every iPhone sale generates $400+ gross profit for Apple. The next closest is RIM, who makes about $150 or so.

    I'm sure Apple would love to sell an Verizon iPhone right now, even last year, and the year before that. There are problems with it though, like the famous exclusivity contract, Verizon's and Apple's competing need for control, and probably technological hurdles. Rather than making a CDMA iPhone for Verizon, why doesn't Apple make a TD-SCDMA model for China Mobile? That has a much greater chance of selling large quantities with access to about 500+ million customers. Unlike the US, the Chinese spend a disproportionately large amount of their household income on cellphones, even unsubsidized. It's not uncommon to see someone making $500 a month to carry around a $500 cell phone.

    Apple marches to the tune of a different drummer. They're method has always been, "my way or the highway." Even early on in the 80's, they could have probably beaten MS had they been willing to license the Mac OS, but they didn't. They're doing the same with iOS. It's obvious they're current strategy is to just make one phone. It's been 3+ years of this. As long as they're making money hand over foot, they'll keep doing what they want and Jobs will keep tell the everybody else, "my way or the highway." Undoubtedly, iPhone will eventually make it's way to Verizon. Most likely when an LTE iPhone is available. I doubt even then that Apple will make a TD-SCDMA version.

    Finally, Android will definitely win out in the smartphone race. I started believing it the day G1 was introduced. Free OS? You can't beat that with a stick since developing one can cost hundreds of millions. Using Android automatically gives a smartphone respect. In 2 quick years it's become an entire ecosystem to rival Apple's, and it's only a matter of time before it overtakes Apple even if the iPhone is on all the carriers in the world. I believe Apple no longer wants the largest marketshare, they just want all the money and reputation of being a tech leader.
    10-08-10 02:14 PM
  15. NVMY03ION's Avatar
    LOL Iphone on a CDMA Network - Thats like giving someone a Lambo and saying sorry you can only take it up to 60 MPH. Comn!!
    10-08-10 03:51 PM
  16. NVMY03ION's Avatar
    Look at the other chart that you so conveniently left off that shows the top selling mobile OS over the past 6 months. Android has 32%, Apple 26%, RIM 25%


    http://www.androidcentral.com/androi...-past-6-months


    Not to Bash Rim or anything but I would expect that 25% marker to drop shortly. They are slitting their wrists. The only thing thats keeping them alive are BBM and BES
    10-08-10 03:52 PM
  17. LazyStarGazer's Avatar
    Do you work for Apple? No, so stop speculating on what they may or may not be doing.
    You're doing the exact same thing. Unless you're Steve Jobs.

    Until Apple announces that there is an iPhone headed to Verizon, this subject and this thread IS nothing more than speculation
    10-08-10 05:55 PM
  18. Lynx's Avatar
    You're doing the exact same thing. Unless you're Steve Jobs.

    Until Apple announces that there is an iPhone headed to Verizon, this subject and this thread IS nothing more than speculation
    I never speculated anything. I said Apple needs Verizon more then Verizen needs Apple.....
    10-09-10 01:11 PM
  19. LazyStarGazer's Avatar
    I never speculated anything. I said Apple needs Verizon more then Verizen needs Apple.....
    That is nothing more than your opinion.
    Depending on what Apples business plan and goals are, you may be completely and totally wrong.

    Opinion = speculation.
    10-09-10 03:59 PM
  20. dcsr23's Avatar
    I agree at this point for Apple to continue to profit and grow in the mobile space, they need Verizon. Everyone who is on AT&T has an iphone or a phone that is currently suiting there needs. While Apple has been locked in to the exclusivity with AT&T they are watching Google become an increasing threat. The only way to stop that is by jumping to Verizon and stop people who are buying Droids looking for that iphone alternative.
    10-12-10 11:11 AM
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