Steve Ballmers Nightmare is coming true
I found this article on Yahoo and found it pretty interesting. Looks like they are taking shots at MS also. Good read.Of Course RIM gets mentioned several times. Link below and for those that dont want to click thru article below.
Steve Ballmer's Nightmare Is Coming True - Yahoo! Finance
Associated Press -
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Almost one year ago today, we laid out the nightmare scenario for Microsoft (MSFT) that could lead to its business collapsing. After laying it all out, we concluded, "Fortunately for Microsoft, none of this is going to happen."
We were wrong.
A lot changed in the last year. Microsoft's nightmare scenario is actually starting to take hold. We're revisiting our slideshow from last year to see how things have played out.
Each number that follows has one piece of the nightmare scenario for Microsoft and an explanation of where Microsoft stands in comparison to that hypothetical situation.
1. The iPad eats the consumer PC market.
This is happening right now. In the third quarter of 2012, PC sales were down 8 percent on a year-over-year basis worldwide. In the U.S., sales were down 14 percent. A big chunk of the decline can be attributed to the rise of the iPad. Apple sold 14 million iPads last quarter, which is more than the top PC maker, Lenovo, which shipped 13.7 million PCs. Throw in Apple's 4.9 million Macs, and it's the top computer maker by a mile.
As the personal computer market goes ...
2. Employees gradually switch away from using Windows PCs for work.
This trend has not played out that dramatically in 2012. However, British bank Barclays bought 8,500 iPads at employees' insistence this year.
And a recent survey showed that the iPhone has overtaken RIM as the smartphone of choice for enterprises. As more people get comfortable with Apple's mobile products at work, Microsoft will have to worry about them converting their Windows-based computers to Macs at work, too.
Microsoft has a plan to combat this but ...
3. Windows 8 fails to stop the iPad.
Gulp. It's still early, but every most data points say Windows 8 is not going to make a dent in the iPad.
-- NPD says Windows tablet sales were "nonexistent" between 10/21 and 11/17.
-- It also says Windows sales were down 21 percent over that period on a year-over-year basis.
-- Piper analyst Gene Munster was in a Microsoft store for two hours on Black Friday and saw zero Surface sales.
-- Microsoft reportedly cut its Surface order in half.
-- Ballmer said Surface sales were "modest."
Meanwhile, we can't think of any analyst who has cut his or her iPad estimate for the quarter based on Surface sales. In Microsoft's defense, it says it sold 40 million licenses, which it says is out pacing Windows 7. There's a chance analysts are wrong.
4. Loyal developers start to leave the Microsoft platform.
We're not sure if this happening or not. So far, the early signs are actually positive for Microsoft. It has over 20,000 apps in its Windows app store. Windows 8 is only a month old. At the same time, Microsoft doesn't have a Facebook app for the Surface, and one of the biggest complaints from reviewers was the lack of good apps for Windows 8.
Windows Phone has over 100,000 apps, but iOS has 700,000 apps, with 275,000 made specifically for the iPad.
5. Windows Phone gets no traction despite the Nokia deal and RIM's collapse.
This has happened. Despite everything Microsoft has tried in mobile for the last two years, consumers aren't buying it. The latest data from IDC says Microsoft has 2 percent of the global mobile market share. And the latest phone from Nokia is thick and heavy compared to phones from Apple and Samsung. We don't expect it to be a blockbuster.
Suddenly, all the dominoes are in place for a lot of bad things to start happening. ...
6. Office loses relevance.
Microsoft's Office has been a juggernaut. In fiscal 2012, the Microsoft business division did ~$24 billion in sales.
Last year, we cautioned, "Office runs only on Microsoft platforms and the Mac. As employees start to do more and more work from non-Windows smartphones and iPads, companies may start to question why they're still buying Office for every employee and upgrading it every two or three releases."
The death of Office, has not happened, though. Despite Google's attempt to create Docs, companies aren't giving up on Excel.
7. Microsoft's other business applications start to erode.
If Windows continues to fade, and if Office starts to fade, then corporations have less reason to adopt Microsoft technologies on the back end like Exchange Server for email, SharePoint Server for collaboration, Lync for videoconferencing and real-time communication, and Dynamics for CRM and accounting.
Exchange, SharePoint, and Dynamics all bring in more than $1 billion per year, and Lync is Microsoft's fastest growing business application. Plus, they pull through a lot of other Microsoft products. ...
8. The platform business collapses.
For the last decade, Microsoft's fastest growing business segment has been Server & Tools, which did $7.4 billion in sales last year.
A lot of these sales come because Microsoft business apps — Exchange, SharePoint, and Dynamics — require these products. But as companies stop buying these apps, they will have less reason to buy the Microsoft platform products that run them, and the System Center ($1 billion+) products used to manage them.
9. The Xbox was never going to make up the slack, and Microsoft can no longer afford to keep investing in it.
In a year of relative gloom, Microsoft's Xbox has become a big bright spot for the company. Kinect is great technology, people are still buying the console, and it's been a great entry point for Microsoft to take over the living room. But, for a company like Microsoft, Xbox isn't enough. Microsoft had $21 billion in operating income last year. The Entertainment and Devices division, which is home to the Xbox had $364 million in operating income. So, as nice as Xbox is, it's not going to be enough to boost Microsoft if the rest of the business collapses.
10. Microsoft suffers a huge quarterly loss. Ballmer retires to play golf.
Let's not kid ourselves — it's going to take a sudden, unexpected disaster at Microsoft to get Ballmer out of the company.
In 2012, Microsoft had its first ever quarterly loss as a public company because it had to write down the $6.2 billion acquisition of aQuantive. Investors mostly shrugged. If Microsoft posted a real loss people would freak out. But that's going to be nearly impossible in the near term.
In the long term ...
Is this just a bad dream?
Last year, we concluded by saying, "Fortunately for Microsoft, none of this is going to happen. Windows 8 will reassert the dominance of the Windows PC. Office and other business products will remain corporate necessities, and developers will never be able to ignore Microsoft. Windows Phone will become a viable third mobile platform, the Xbox will continue to dominate the living room, and new products will surprise the pundits who thought Microsoft couldn't innovate. Even Bing will finally make a profit someday."
This year, it's a lot harder to say much of that. Windows 8 doesn't seem to be reasserting the dominance of the PC. Windows Phone is not a viable third platform. Bing is still burning money. The Microsoft nightmare scenario is actually becoming a reality.
- 12-09-12, 10:33 AM #2
Steve Ballmers Nightmare is coming true
Its all up to Rim now if BB10 is a success and yes Microsoft is going to have major issues. But if Rim fails the WP8 devices will become the third ecosystem.
Personally I own a Lumia 822 and a 9930 and honestly I really like the WP8 devices so don't believe this war is over yet let's see what BB10 has to offer!
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- 12-09-12, 10:35 AM #3
I think it's going to take a bit more time to see what happens with Microsoft. They just released Windows 8 and these guys are jumping to conclusions. Let's wait and see what happens in a year or two when there are 100s of millions of computers running Windows 8.
The other thing in this article that the author keeps saying is "RIM's collapse." I'm sorry but when did RIM "collapse?" The word collapse means they went out of business, don't have any cash, weren't selling any phones. In fact, RIM is still in business, their cash balance went up, and they sold (not shipped) over 10 million legacy handsets in the last quarter. Don't get me wrong, RIM sales definitely aren't great and they can be doing better but let's not jump to conclusions based on sales of legacy handsets during a transition time.
You are exactly correct. I thought it was interesting to see the press take the shots at MS. You could almost substitute MS with Rim and it reads like many of the slash and burn articles that have been written about RIM. I find it interesting how they declared the Surface DOA. Where have we heard that before?
- 12-09-12, 10:43 AM #5
Interesting article. A few years ago, a friend of mine did a presentation on Microsoft and one of the shocking things he said was that almost all of Microsoft's business units 'lost money', but were buoyed by massive profits of Windows and Office. That shocked the heck out of me and many others in the audience at the time and got me wondering ... what would happen if one of those units began to fail ...?
I think it's a bit silly to write Microsoft's obituary too though. A lot could change inside the company and out.
- 12-09-12, 10:44 AM #6
If, if, if. I think they need to wait and see what the win8 pro tablets do. win8 RT isn't anything special.Sent from me using my fingers. Be pantless in 5K. Febreze - for more than smells.
Posted from my phone or pc or tablet that are no better than anyone else's
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- CrackBerry Addict
12-09-12, 10:56 AM #7
- 976 Posts
Steve Ballmers Nightmare is coming true
I'm glad crackberry let you post this. I wasn't successful on 2 occasions with news about the poor windows phone / surface sales. Anyway, management is clearly making poor choices. I'm a long time microsoft programmer but I've been pushing away lately. They make nice dev tools and great apis but they're putting too much effort trying to copy competitors with search, mobile, tablets and they're getting nowhere. They should partner with apple, rim, and google instead of trying to beat them.
Time to give ballmer the boot.
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- 12-09-12, 11:03 AM #9
i really can't see how a tablet will ever replace a PC, hardware wise it will never come close, storage wise never, gaming wise never even in business how can you possible think a tablet is better for accouting purposes where huge ammounts of data is inputted on a regular bases that needs a secure data center.
the iPad is a fad it will die out eventually, there are small things you can do like write emails and browse the web, but when it comes to data mass ammounts of data entry and research assignments an iPad will never be able to do that and thats not even scratching the surface for graphic design or engineering.
A PC will never be replaced by any mobile device, yes for simple things such as e mails and personally recreational gaming but for large things, think again
- 12-09-12, 11:59 AM #12
Whose gonna buy a surface pro when you can buy a a laptop for half the price that does just as much? I'd rather buy a really nice laptop and a Playbook and the price still comes out lower than the cheapest surface at 899$
- CrackBerry Addict
12-09-12, 11:59 AM #13
- 740 Posts
So, this analyst believes that a few thousand ipads deployed at a company means it is over for the PC? Ridiculous.
To measure tablet penetration, they should have a tablet to PC ratio. Post it every month and see how much things are changing.
My guess is that this ratio is probably 0.1% in the corporate world.
On the other hand, Thorsten's vision is that your mobile will be so powerful that all you'll need to do is hook up to your corporate network, attach a monitor and keyboard, and do your business.
- 12-09-12, 12:02 PM #14
PCs aren't going away. The forms they take are beginning to show signs of rapid change. Two years ago, nobody made ultrabooks, nobody knew there was a market for them until MBA. A few years ago, all-in-ones were the domain of iMac, but now every major computer maker offers it. I remember having a Pentium 3 computer a while back. The thing came in a huge tower, had a 21" CRT, and about 7-8 cables sticking out of it. Back then, every PC looked like that, and it looked liked that for as long as I can remember. Now, there's a lot more options, and I for one like it. I think the tablet is here to stay. Most people don't need a power computer for most of their uses. Browsing the internet, playing games, and viewing/listening to media probably take up the majority of computer time for most. You don't need huge computing power for that.
- 12-09-12, 12:08 PM #15
It's already moving this direction, that's why the Surface Pro even exists, because these companies understand where the market is really heading. PCs will be replaced by mobile devices withing 3-5 years. There are people carrying around quad-core phones and tablets. Let's be honest here...
- 12-09-12, 04:26 PM #16
IMO Thor was alluding more to the fact that you could get more done on the go when no computer is available. There are solutions to some of the above issues, but some are YEARS out, while others are costly (both money and efficiency wise).
You can buy a pentium dual core Windows 8 laptop which arguably has the same specs as a 2 year old PlayBook. And yet the laptop is over twice the price.
The laptop has vastly superior: CPU, RAM, GPU and storage.
The only spec you could "argue" is better is screen DPI...pretty weak argument.
- CrackBerry Abuser
12-09-12, 05:41 PM #17
- 216 Posts
- 12-09-12, 06:19 PM #18
"RIM is working to take advantage of that strength, according to Heins, and consumers could likely soon see RIM’s PlayBook software running on in-car entertainment systems, smart television sets and in-store retail displays." (Source) The first universal kernel from here to the moon. The solutions are coming much quicker than your pessimism suggest that's the point of innovation, solutions. It's more cost efficient and ultimately more secure and productive. How much do you really utilize your computer? Probably less than 50% of what it's truly capable of--these personal computing machines are expensive powerhouses that we use for a fraction of their overall value. The only argument I need is slowing PC sales and rising tablet sales, pretty solid argument. The future is digital. We don't need vastly superior machines we need solutions, that's why BlackBerry 10 is being built. It's cheaper to develop an app rather than buy a computing machine and then license the software needed (if it exists)
- 12-09-12, 08:11 PM #19
The solutions are coming much quicker than your pessimism suggest that's the point of innovation, solutions. It's more cost efficient and ultimately more secure and productive.
I'd also love to see some facts to support your claims that a tablet/phone is more cost effective, secure and efficient. There is nothing efficient about working on a touch screen when trying to be productive. Similarly, single-window apps is just no way to be efficient. Don't give me the "peek and flow" nonsense either, it's still no replacement for a multi-window desktop. What's more secure about something you can slip right in your pocket? Cost effective is just a joke too. To meet the requirements of a simple job like say, a secretary, you would need the tablet, external peripherals, external monitor, and compatible devices (printers and scanners aren't cheap). And this is a simple computer job, I can't even imagine the costs involved with trying to outfit something like an architectural firm with tablets.
How much do you really utilize your computer? Probably less than 50% of what it's truly capable of--these personal computing machines are expensive powerhouses that we use for a fraction of their overall value.
To come back to my earlier point, it's all about the software and hardware working together. Windows PCs are still #1 in business for the simple fact that the majority of business software requires them to run.
The only argument I need is slowing PC sales and rising tablet sales,
It's cheaper to develop an app rather than buy a computing machine and then license the software needed (if it exists)
How about something even more preposterous...I can buy a bucket of MS Office licenses for a few grand. I'd love to see you develop an Excel replacement for a sum of money even 100x the cost of my licenses.
There's a place in enterprise for tablets, i just deployed a pilot of a few dozen iPads are work which are working very well for their designated purpose. But to think they'll replace desktop computers is a flawed assumption.
- 12-09-12, 08:49 PM #21
Steve Ballmers Nightmare is coming true
this is ridiculous windows eight just came out and apples os is looking dated. the Mac pro hasn't been updated for years and if you read apple blogs your starting to see tired head with apple(same ol same ol). didn't these same type of Ding dongs say apple should stay out of the phone market. what you read and see is 95% bulls***. this is just trying to be the smartest guy in the room. i will probably buy a windows tab and i am really tempted by the lumia 920 ( till i saw the new bb 10 page, im flaky haha). apple spends a lot of money and has a lot of influence. apple has the most apps so that is what is always brought up as a measuring stick.
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