[Homo Erectus]

Over 5 Million BlackBerry 10 Devices Sold in Q1, says Analyst - N4BB

BlackBerry shares are up 6% (as of this writing) after Societe Generale analyst Andy Perkins made positive note on the company. Perkins has changed his rating on the stock to Buy and gives it a price target of $17 from $13.

The higher rating comes after Perkins� checks show sales of the BlackBerry Z10 and Q10 may have done better than most expect. �In total, we believe that Blackberry 10 handsets could record sales in excess of 5m units,� says Perkins.

�We believe that this is above consensus which is between 3m and 4m units for the quarter; As for the older units, we still believe there is demand for the 9220, 9320 and 9900 handsets but that this is falling rapidly.�

[BergerKing]

Over 5 Million BlackBerry 10 Devices Sold in Q1, says Analyst - N4BB

BlackBerry shares are up 6% (as of this writing) after Societe Generale analyst Andy Perkins made positive note on the company. Perkins has changed his rating on the stock to Buy and gives it a price target of $17 from $13.

The higher rating comes after Perkins’ checks show sales of the BlackBerry Z10 and Q10 may have done better than most expect. “In total, we believe that Blackberry 10 handsets could record sales in excess of 5m units,” says Perkins.

“We believe that this is above consensus which is between 3m and 4m units for the quarter; As for the older units, we still believe there is demand for the 9220, 9320 and 9900 handsets but that this is falling rapidly.”

Nice to see some more positive news, and thanks for sharing!

[bekkay]

Andy Perkins must be long BBRY stocks. It's a conspiracy

[Zarpan]

What I like about this report is that it includes a major upgrade and change of opinion.

Most of the reports that we get are from analysts such as Faucette, Walkley, and Misek. Those are getting rather meaningless since we know their stance on BlackBerry ahead of time and can tell what they are going to say without even reading the report.

This is a positive report from someone who was negative on BlackBerry before.

[BergerKing]

What I like about this report is that it includes a major upgrade and change of opinion.

Most of the reports that we get are from analysts such as Faucette, Walkley, and Misek. Those are getting rather meaningless since we know their stance on BlackBerry ahead of time and can tell what they are going to say without even reading the report.

This is a positive report from someone who was negative on BlackBerry before.

And that's a good point.

Sent from my SPH-L710 using CB Forums mobile app

[treaker]

We'll find out on the 28th

Canadian Z10 owner on Telus

[richardat]

What I like about this report is that it includes a major upgrade and change of opinion.e.

That is true.

Most of the reports that we get are from analysts such as Faucette, Walkley, and Misek. Those are getting rather meaningless since we know their stance on BlackBerry ahead of time and can tell what they are going to say without even reading the report.e.

I'm surprised at you Zarpan! Your first statement was completely legitimate but this is not! Those analysts have changed their mind before, and may (probably will) do so in future reports on various subjects. I would suggest you cannot be sure of what they will say, and I doubt yesterday you were sure of what this analyst would say - in fact, I'd suggest you'd probably have thought the same of him as the others. Nor are there reports "meaningless", the fact that they haven't made a major change doesn't render the analysis more or less meaningful, in fact, one could argue that their opinion is at least more constant (and presumably longer considered). None of which is to say of course that any of them are correct or not.

[richardat]

Thanks OP, I read about this a few hours ago but I think it's pretty grim. It's sad that this is one of the most bullish forecasts - it's pretty amazing how far expectations have sunk around here, since the beginning of the year. :-( Though, I think this is good in that this is the reality, and was about what everyone should have expected.

[mediadavid]

When was the cut off point for sales this quarter? Will it include any US Q10 sales?

Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

When was the cut off point for sales this quarter? Will it include any US Q10 sales?

Posted via CB10

No... the end of the Q was at the end of May. However, the US Z10 sales will be included.

[spiller]

No... the end of the Q was at the end of May. However, the US Z10 sales will be included.

I don't know I think they could have snuck some in. I think at least one carrier was shipping business Q10 orders by June 2? Blackberry can include shipped (=sold) units if they were shipped from BB inventory by May 31 ....I'm hoping 300K. The consumer orders were shipped by telcos Jun 6th. Also possible that BB had shipped those units by May 31. Correct my assumptions if I'm wrong.

[Aljean Thein]

I thought Q1 was already done ?

[kbz1960]

Is that a good number?

[Zarpan]

I'm surprised at you Zarpan! Your first statement was completely legitimate but this is not! Those analysts have changed their mind before, and may (probably will) do so in future reports on various subjects. I would suggest you cannot be sure of what they will say, and I doubt yesterday you were sure of what this analyst would say - in fact, I'd suggest you'd probably have thought the same of him as the others. Nor are there reports "meaningless", the fact that they haven't made a major change doesn't render the analysis more or less meaningful, in fact, one could argue that their opinion is at least more constant (and presumably longer considered). None of which is to say of course that any of them are correct or not.

Well, I've followed those three analysts quite a bit (especially Faucette and Misek since they release a lot of reports).

If I'm not 100% certain of what those two will say, I'm at least 99% certain. If you've followed them enough, you'll know that they're currently locked into particular viewpoints, and those viewpoints influence how they analyze any data they get.

Faucette always mentions that BlackBerry's sales are slowing and that they're building tons of inventory and not selling much of it.

Misek always mentions that BlackBerry is doing well - above Street consensus, that builds are stable and/or increasing, and that the value is ultimately on the software side.

There's enough of a history with them to suggest that their channel checks are inherently biased in some fashion, since Misek's always are quite positive, while Faucette's are always quite negative. They have agendas to push and are quite vocal about it. The reason their analysis is less meaningful is because their analysis is driven by their existing biases, rather than considered from a neutral perspective. Sure, their opinions are constant, but I'd argue that stubbornness is not the way to approach data analysis.

Perkins on the other hand, has not been been that vocal about BlackBerry recently. His agenda is not as apparent as Misek's or Faucette's, which makes his report more interesting.

[richardat]

Well, I've followed those three analysts quite a bit (especially Faucette and Misek since they release a lot of reports).

If I'm not 100% certain of what those two will say, I'm at least 99% certain. If you've followed them enough, you'll know that they're currently locked into particular viewpoints, and those viewpoints influence how they analyze any data they get.

Faucette always mentions that BlackBerry's sales are slowing and that they're building tons of inventory and not selling much of it.

Misek always mentions that BlackBerry is doing well - above Street consensus, that builds are stable and/or increasing, and that the value is ultimately on the software side.

There's enough of a history with them to suggest that their channel checks are inherently biased in some fashion, since Misek's always are quite positive, while Faucette's are always quite negative. They have agendas to push and are quite vocal about it. The reason their analysis is less meaningful is because their analysis is driven by their existing biases, rather than considered from a neutral perspective. Sure, their opinions are constant, but I'd argue that stubbornness is not the way to approach data analysis.

Perkins on the other hand, has not been been that vocal about BlackBerry recently. His agenda is not as apparent as Misek's or Faucette's, which makes his report more interesting.

I'll agr
Yes, again, I can get behind "like" and "interesting"! ;-) If all you are actually positing is that it is a new voice, then I'll agree with that, but I'll go no farther! LOL

[richardat]

Is that a good number?

Heh, well....depends on what one was hoping for.....that would probably end up being around 1-2% marketshare.

[THBW]

Well, I've followed those three analysts quite a bit (especially Faucette and Misek since they release a lot of reports).

If I'm not 100% certain of what those two will say, I'm at least 99% certain. If you've followed them enough, you'll know that they're currently locked into particular viewpoints, and those viewpoints influence how they analyze any data they get.

Faucette always mentions that BlackBerry's sales are slowing and that they're building tons of inventory and not selling much of it.

Misek always mentions that BlackBerry is doing well - above Street consensus, that builds are stable and/or increasing, and that the value is ultimately on the software side.

There's enough of a history with them to suggest that their channel checks are inherently biased in some fashion, since Misek's always are quite positive, while Faucette's are always quite negative. They have agendas to push and are quite vocal about it. The reason their analysis is less meaningful is because their analysis is driven by their existing biases, rather than considered from a neutral perspective. Sure, their opinions are constant, but I'd argue that stubbornness is not the way to approach data analysis.

Perkins on the other hand, has not been been that vocal about BlackBerry recently. His agenda is not as apparent as Misek's or Faucette's, which makes his report more interesting.

Well, many of us follow these analysts as well and it is not an issue of bears and bulls. Faucette's predictions have been consistently wrong. Not by a little but by alot. He brashly and boldly predicted Z10 sales were 250K is the first quarter. Missed that one by a country mile. Then he argued that Z10 were being return in high numbers based on a Demwhiler Fenton report. Wrong again and his buddies have now been hauled up in front of the SEC and are negotiating an out of court settlement. Then he stated the Q10 wasn't selling, Wrong again as denoted by every major vendor of the q10. And then two weeks ago, he said BB10 sales were slowing at a time that BB was increasing part pruchases. This guy falls into the clown category.

Do you want to know who is one of Faucette's friend and buddy. Well, it happens to be Walkely, They worked together and news has it that they vaction together. For people that proclaim to know something about technology, they seem absolutely daft at understanding the power of the google search engine. Do you also know where there other buddies work? Well it happens to be at Demwhiler Fenton and ICG. What a surprise.

In contrast, Misek has been above board in how he does his channel checks and his predictions have been closer to the mark. I still consider him a bit of a bear but at least his research notes make sense. Faucette and Walkely have been reduced to opinion and random gibberish.

[THBW]

Heh, well....depends on what one was hoping for.....that would probably end up being around 1-2% marketshare.

Can you remind me of your last quarter predictions for BB10? I think you were somewhere under 300K.

[richardat]

Can you remind me of your last quarter predictions for BB10? I think you were somewhere under 300K.

I think the only thing worse than a troll is an outright LIAR. There are many who've been upset with my pessimistic view of BB, the best of them, I have had extensive discussion with, others simply resort to insult, but few have repeatedly simply made up outright lies/accusations as you have. I feel this to be a disgrace to every member of this forum.

I will debunk this lie about my "prediction" of "300,000" and illustrate the pattern of completely false allegations THBW has been making using this thread: Canaccord: From 300 000 to 800 000 unit sales prediction. A thread I started with that news item.

As to Canaccord, would like to read their documents...I wrote before it seemed to be feast or famine with their estimates...glad they're moderating a bit...I think they're still low, but ...with no figures at all, it's impossible to say! For BB's sake, let's hope they are low.

There in black and white one can see, I made no specific prediction, but did clearly state I felt 800,000 was still too low. THBW replied to that with this lie/accusation:

Thanks for your half glass empty perspective. So why isn't 800K good when you eluded to the fact that it was perfectly acceptable 3 weeks ago? You commentary blows in the wind with every new scrap of information. We all get it, BB bad, everything else good.

and this sequence ensued:

.......To what specifically are you referring? I do not recall saying 800,000 was "perfectly acceptable". If you would simply tell me to what you refer, I could provide context, and we could then discuss it meaningfully.........(I also wrote an extensive reply to other points in this post)

I'm simply pointing out the inconsistencies in your arguments over the last three 3 weeks. So why is 800K is bad number? You state your perspective centers on profitability of a company. Well then plug in the numbers and tell me what you see. Add in the corporate side and the server business. My bet is that you don't like what you see. Sort of sad really. But then again, one would have to do there homework. We all get it BB bad, everything else good. Your on a roll.

Again....let me repeat: I don't recall saying that 800,000 was perfectly acceptable. You need to quote me, or at least tell me in what thread I said that, so that I can see what you're referring to. I'll be happy to elaborate further. If you simply keep saying I made this claim, not only can we not discuss it, it gives the appearance that you're making it up, so it's in both our interests to further the conversation if you are being honest!

.....This just seems like trolling. First, I never said my perspective centers on "profitability of a company".[i] We need to be very careful about misrepresenting each other, particularly given what you have written above.[i] Please, quote me directly (as I'm doing for you), and reply to the points specifically.

..... Second, what numbers are you referring to? Third, you first say you "bet" I don't like what I see, but then imply I haven't done it. I really do not get the impression you have any interest in discussing content, and are merely dragging this into irrational claims and personal insults.

I can certainly assure you that I never felt that your posts contained usable content. I'm sorry if I or anyone else on this thread left you with that impression.

Thank you for the confirmation. As you can see from post #61, I had already begun to assume you were trolling me. I am actually glad that you say this so everyone can see that your claims about my "inconsistencies" were lies (though I'm sure most already suspected that, with your failure to bring up any actual quotes).

You may not like me, but seriously, how about some respect for the thread, or the board. This stuff just pollutes with meaningless noise.

I do applaud you for coming clean though. I'd much rather have somebody just admit they are lashing out, than wasting everyone's time with pseudo-arguments. :-)

Hmm, interesting. Weren't you the one to first state that 800K was not good and actually quite bad. Time to put your analysis up. We are all waiting for those magic numbers. You did make this your key point on this thread didn't you?

SO, as one can clearly see, THBW has a history of simply making-up false allegations about others. He makes a claim about what I allegedly said, then ignoring all requests for a reference (because there is none - it is an outright lie), he continues to troll and repeat the lie hoping to dupe others.

Ta DA! Two lies, THBW's character, and a troll's power.....GONE! Magic!

[andrew1953]

maybe BB should release the Q10 in Australia ? Released just about everywhere else- Slovenia,UK,USA,Malaysia,Canada............

Sent from my BlackBerry 9800 using Tapatalk

[THBW]

I think the only thing worse than a troll is an outright LIAR. There are many who've been upset with my pessimistic view of BB, the best of them, I have had extensive discussion with, others simply resort to insult, but few have repeatedly simply made up outright lies/accusations as you have. I feel this to be a disgrace to every member of this forum.

I will debunk this lie about my "prediction" of "300,000" and illustrate the pattern of completely false allegations THBW has been making using this thread: Canaccord: From 300 000 to 800 000 unit sales prediction. A thread I started with that news item.



There in black and white one can see, I made no specific prediction, but did clearly state I felt 800,000 was still too low. THBW replied to that with this lie/accusation:



and this sequence ensued:













SO, as one can clearly see, THBW has a history of simply making-up false allegations about others. He makes a claim about what I allegedly said, then ignoring all requests for a reference (because there is none - it is an outright lie), he continues to troll and repeat the lie hoping to dupe others.

Ta DA! Two lies, THBW's character, and a troll's power.....GONE! Magic!

So let me get this straight then. When you agree incessantly, over many months, with the most negative analysts reports and then bemoan that it could be even worse, you really don't believe what you are saying. Is that your position at the moment. I just want to make sure I have it correct.

[desmo1984]

Thanks OP, I read about this a few hours ago but I think it's pretty grim. It's sad that this is one of the most bullish forecasts - it's pretty amazing how far expectations have sunk around here, since the beginning of the year. :-( Though, I think this is good in that this is the reality, and was about what everyone should have expected.

It's pretty grim that BB might beat the forecast sales by anywhere from 20-50%? How is that grim? It's only grim if you thought that somehow BB was somehow going to do monster numbers even without the Q10 being available in most markets.
.
This is the factor that the naysayers tend to conveniently forget, AVAILABILITY. Does your marketshare estimate take this into account? Maybe BB will have 1-2% marketshare for the quarter but if that's 1-2% marketshare WITHOUT their flagship product, that is highly significant.

[shlammed]

I thought Q1 was already done ?

Not calendar Q1, BlackBerry's Fiscal Q1 for 2014 which ended on June 1st.

Fiscal Q2 ends August 31st
Fiscal Q3 ends November 30th
Fiscal Q4 ends March 1st, 2014

[richardat]

So let me get this straight then. When you agree incessantly, over many months, with the most negative analysts reports t.

Thanks, proof positive yet again: I didnt' make either of the claims you said I did, you now switch to a general accusation of something I did not do, and again, no retraction or apology - just continued false allegations.

Exactly what I suppose I should expect from a racist who keeps implying that Asians and African-Americans (to avoid using your ugly term for them) are inferior, but I thank you for so continuing the behavior so as to make it clear to all!

[richardat]

It's pretty grim that BB might beat the forecast sales by anywhere from 20-50%? How is that grim? It's only grim if you thought that somehow BB was somehow going to do monster numbers even without the Q10 being available in most markets. .

.
It's not at all, if you judge performance by sales forecasts! If they beat sales forecasts by 20-50%, then expect the market to react positively! That isn't my frame of reference, I'm more interested in the long-term viability of the company, not in quarterly analyst estimates (most of whom are very pessimistic about BB's future - as you probably know), in that sense, I do dot feel that meeting or beating (by that margin), analysts estimates are enough. It is roughly equivalent to saying, will little JennyBerry make it into med school? Well, she is completely outperforming expectations in her remedial-math class! It is a very complex and large picture, and I've posted extensively about it before Desmo, but to summarize, I see the future of a smartphone-only (at this point, I'd be in favor of exiting smartphones as quickly as possible - and I think they may well be thinking the same) company with 1-2% marketshare as very very very grim indeed.

I
This is the factor that the naysayers tend to conveniently forget, AVAILABILITY. Does your marketshare estimate take this into account? Maybe BB will have 1-2% marketshare for the quarter but if that's 1-2% marketshare WITHOUT their flagship product, that is highly significant.

First, let's make it clear, No, my estimate absolutely does not take availability into account. That was a 10 second, back of napkin calculation, and does not take into account staggered market times, availability, sales by country or region, etc.

You should do that if you feel it will be significantly different! I would be interested to see the results, though I actually do not think they will differ significantly in my mind....since that would be nearly impossible given the magnitude of the numbers. I'm certainly not interested in doing that given the original estimate isn't even mine (though doubtless I will be accused of making this "prediction" later LOL).

I'm unclear about what you mean by being "WITHOUT" (lol) their "flagship" product. What do you consider their flagship product?