[allengeorge]

Story highlights:

• BB10 first-quarter sales estimates cut from 3.3M units to 2.8M units, based on waning Z10 sales
• Q10 demand is strong, but there's a question about how much of that is an artifact of limited stock
• Kicker: �While we anticipate stronger near-term results for BlackBerry as higher margin BB10 smartphones sell into the channel, we do not believe BlackBerry can achieve sell-through market share levels to return to sustained profit levels,� (Michael Walkley, Canaccord Analyst)

Link to the story: Canaccord cuts sales estimates on BlackBerry 10 devices - The Globe and Mail

I can believe the news about the Z10. Although I'm very happy with mine (although it needs polish and UI/UX improvements) it doesn't offer a compelling hook for either die-hard keyboard users or out-of-platform individuals to migrate.

[peter9477]

Canaccord has very little credibility at this point, if any. Their previous attempts at predicting Z10 sales for Q4 started at 1.5M, then dropped to 300K. A bit later, when it was very clear there would be far more than 300K sold, they grudgingly upped their estimate to "300-800K" while sticking with their low-ball price target and a lot of negative statements. The actual figure, as you know, turned out to be 1M.

Given their past performance, I think you have to allow for an ample range of error on their estimates. They've said 3.3M, and now 2.8M, for this quarter. Applying a reasonable fudge factor, I think one could safely say that Canaccord's range is from approximately 1.5M to 4.5M. My cat can do a better job than they do.

[houshinto#IM]

Junk release from a person in a junk firm who's gotten it wrong on Blackberry too many times to be taken seriously.

[greatwiseone]

Why are people even listening to cannacord??

Posted via CB10

[gjohnsto]

These guys are a bunch of clowns...

Posted via CB10

[Sith_Apprentice]

Story highlights:

• BB10 first-quarter sales estimates cut from 3.3M units to 2.8M units, based on waning Z10 sales
• Q10 demand is strong, but there's a question about how much of that is an artifact of limited stock
• Kicker: “While we anticipate stronger near-term results for BlackBerry as higher margin BB10 smartphones sell into the channel, we do not believe BlackBerry can achieve sell-through market share levels to return to sustained profit levels,” (Michael Walkley, Canaccord Analyst)

Link to the story: Canaccord cuts sales estimates on BlackBerry 10 devices - The Globe and Mail

I can believe the news about the Z10. Although I'm very happy with mine (although it needs polish and UI/UX improvements) it doesn't offer a compelling hook for either die-hard keyboard users or out-of-platform individuals to migrate.

Wonder if they count the 1M from the first month, and 1M order from a partner in these sales estimates? That is 2M right there, leaving only 800k? Come on now.

[playbookster]

How many times can these guys be wrong?

Posted via CB10

[lipper2000]

All analysts are pretty poor for the most part with a couple of exceptions where they use hard data.
I personally do not think the current BB products will do anything for BB in the long term and they are only going to get a % of their existing fanbase...
They could turn it around if they released a sub $200 phone immediately for the developing markets with some sort of value proposition with low BBIM data usage or something...doesn't seem like they came out of the gate ready to take on these markets though...if they concentrate on the west they are dead

[Admorris]

Mark them off as another media outlet with "no credibility"...the list is growing daily...lol

Btw...credibility on this site = blackberry *** kissers

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 2

[Sith_Apprentice]

All analysts are pretty poor for the most part with a couple of exceptions where they use hard data.
I personally do not think the current BB products will do anything for BB in the long term and they are only going to get a % of their existing fanbase...
They could turn it around if they released a sub $200 phone immediately for the developing markets with some sort of value proposition with low BBIM data usage or something...doesn't seem like they came out of the gate ready to take on these markets though...if they concentrate on the west they are dead

Take a look at the R series devices. This curve series is designed for the emerging markets. Pricing will be MUCH lower than Q or Z

[Sith_Apprentice]

Mark them off as another media outlet with "no credibility"...the list is growing daily...lol

Btw...credibility on this site = blackberry *** kissers

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 2

You went a bit far on that one. They have been VERY wrong on BB10 sales estimates so far, and their numbers dont add up very well. You have 3 months, with 1M sold the first 30 days, without the US and for the most part India. Now you also have added a second phone to the mix, which by all accounts is selling MUCH better than the Z10 (based on pre-order reports along with the release data we have so far). Add to that the 1M device order that was announced after the first month. It seems VERY far fetched to say that only 800k devices would be sold in 2 months (2.8M - 1M first month - 1M order = 800k) between two devices. Lets just say my workplace will account for several thousand units this month.

[web99]

Story highlights:

• BB10 first-quarter sales estimates cut from 3.3M units to 2.8M units, based on waning Z10 sales
• Q10 demand is strong, but there's a question about how much of that is an artifact of limited stock
• Kicker: �While we anticipate stronger near-term results for BlackBerry as higher margin BB10 smartphones sell into the channel, we do not believe BlackBerry can achieve sell-through market share levels to return to sustained profit levels,� (Michael Walkley, Canaccord Analyst)

Link to the story: Canaccord cuts sales estimates on BlackBerry 10 devices - The Globe and Mail

I can believe the news about the Z10. Although I'm very happy with mine (although it needs polish and UI/UX improvements) it doesn't offer a compelling hook for either die-hard keyboard users or out-of-platform individuals to migrate.

Historically their numbers have been way off and more often than not their predictions have been totally wrong. With a track record like that it is very hard to take what Canaccord says very seriously.


Posted via CB10 from my spectacular Z10

[mikeo007]

You went a bit far on that one. They have been VERY wrong on BB10 sales estimates so far, and their numbers dont add up very well. You have 3 months, with 1M sold the first 30 days, without the US and for the most part India. Now you also have added a second phone to the mix, which by all accounts is selling MUCH better than the Z10 (based on pre-order reports along with the release data we have so far). Add to that the 1M device order that was announced after the first month. It seems VERY far fetched to say that only 800k devices would be sold in 2 months (2.8M - 1M first month - 1M order = 800k) between two devices. Lets just say my workplace will account for several thousand units this month.

He has a point. I'm sure you've read through enough "lulz zero credibility" threads to realize the point he's trying to make. People around here are rabid towards any analyst that isn't a BB *** kisser. Heck, the same firms have been hated and praised within a single week due to a positive and negative article relating to BB.

Also, unless a check has been written and cashed for those 1 million devices, and the devices signed, sealed and delivered, you can't count then as sales this quarter.

[VeGiTo]

Wonder if they count the 1M from the first month, and 1M order from a partner in these sales estimates? That is 2M right there, leaving only 800k? Come on now.

Well the 1M from the first month was part of Q4 results, not Q1. So that leaves 1.8M - still lowballing though.

[richardat]

All analysts are pretty poor for the most part with a couple of exceptions where they use hard data.
I personally do not think the current BB products will do anything for BB in the long term and they are only going to get a % of their existing fanbase...
They could turn it around if they released a sub $200 phone immediately for the developing markets with some sort of value proposition with low BBIM data usage or something...doesn't seem like they came out of the gate ready to take on these markets though...if they concentrate on the west they are dead

I agree to some extent. In fact, I wrote before release that one possible strategy I thought might POSSIBLY offer escape is to release low-end devices and flood the market by storm in their developing nations strongholds. I still think that was a better plan (than this - which I think is disastrous), but bear in mind that margins will be extremely low (note how well big low-margin sales are doing for them so far - yes, keeping them from a Titanic sink - but still going under), and there is the problem of service plan revenue. The numbers would have to be weighed very carefully, and it's unlikely that much increase in revenue could be found - in fact, it may end up being a loss - which may well be their reluctance to pull the trigger there (though this is probably also due to their attempt to be seen as a premium (ie. apple) device). So, yes, for sure a low-end device can up the sales numbers, and that ultimately is good - if they can balance that with the loss from revenue, and the cost of deploying these for large-scale release - but won't do much for profit. Really tough position, and no clear "winning" strategy in this aspect - at this point.

If you think they can deploy them and still gather service revenue then that would be the ideal for sure....it would have meant giving up their attempt to establish BB10 as an exclusive high-end device, but....having seen how poorly they've executed the launch that was a bit of a lost cause anyways.

[VeGiTo]

I agree to some extent. In fact, I wrote before release that one possible strategy I thought might POSSIBLY offer escape is to release low-end devices and flood the market by storm in their developing nations strongholds. I still think that was a better plan (than this - which I think is disastrous), but bear in mind that margins will be extremely low (note how well big low-margin sales are doing for them so far - yes, keeping them from a Titanic sink - but still going under), and there is the problem of service plan revenue. The numbers would have to be weighed very carefully, and it's unlikely that much increase in revenue could be found - in fact, it may end up being a loss - which may well be their reluctance to pull the trigger there (though this is probably also due to their attempt to be seen as a premium (ie. apple) device). So, yes, for sure a low-end device can up the sales numbers, and that ultimately is good - if they can balance that with the loss from revenue, and the cost of deploying these for large-scale release - but won't do much for profit. Really tough position, and no clear "winning" strategy in this aspect - at this point.

If you think they can deploy them and still gather service revenue then that would be the ideal for sure....it would have meant giving up their attempt to establish BB10 as an exclusive high-end device, but....having seen how poorly they've executed the launch that was a bit of a lost cause anyways.

You say that with what data??? Going after the high margin market first is the right move so they can build up manufacturing capacity with the cash. They are already profitable with only 1M devices in Q4. They will be immensely profitable following this strategy for the rest of the year, and attacking the lower-end in the latter half.

Where is the data that you speak of that gave you the idea that the launch was "disastrous"? Do you live in a bubble?

[Sith_Apprentice]

Well the 1M from the first month was part of Q4 results, not Q1. So that leaves 1.8M - still lowballing though.

My apologies, you are correct. Instead of 2 months of sales you have 3, including in the US and India. For some reason I read that as first quarter of availability. *facepalm*

[FunGuyLover]

Mark them off as another media outlet with "no credibility"...the list is growing daily...lol

Btw...credibility on this site = blackberry *** kissers

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 2

The media outlet's credibility isn't in question ; the analyst's is. They have a long and storied history of being dead wrong on RIM/BlackBerry.

Shouldn't you be off somewhere celebrating the smashing success of the One?

Lot of people are going to be eating crow when the numbers come in. I predict 10 million Zs and 30 million Qs globally by end of year, plus whatever slurp up with the R and the Aristo. Not a good time to be short BlackBerry.

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[JPMorgan_]

As of now... those reports on weak Q10 sales, have hit the stock, currently down 4.73% in today's trading session

[undone]

Surprised they didnt wait more towards the end of the month to downgrade. Being that June 1st is the end of BB's q1.

[Bbnivende]

The media outlet's credibility isn't in question ; the analyst's is. They have a long and storied history of being dead wrong on RIM/BlackBerry.

Shouldn't you be off somewhere celebrating the smashing success of the One?

Lot of people are going to be eating crow when the numbers come in. I predict 10 million Zs and 30 million Qs globally by end of year, plus whatever slurp up with the R and the Aristo. Not a good time to be short BlackBerry.

Posted via CB10

Does BB have product capacity for more than 2 million per month of BB10 product at this time ?

[Zarpan]

Mark them off as another media outlet with "no credibility"...the list is growing daily...lol

Btw...credibility on this site = blackberry *** kissers

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 2

Well, his credibility really isn't very good when it comes to BlackBerry since he botched the forecasts for last quarter's shipment figures so badly. Can you suggest any reason why we should trust his numbers given that poor track record for BB10 estimates?

Or is it that you think credibility = BlackBerry bears only, regardless of track record.

[amazinglygraceless]

YAWN! Canaccord is to financial analysis what BGR is to technology reporting.

[amazinglygraceless]

How many times can these guys be wrong?

Eleventybillion is my guess

[FunGuyLover]

As of now... those reports on weak Q10 sales, have hit the stock, currently down 4.73% in today's trading session

How pathetic. How desperate. A rumor backed by no actual data... from a source that has a proven track record of based failure.

This will correct itself.

Posted via CB10