[richardat]

Follow up to dgree3's post about Kantar's US numbers. Articles with numbers from other countries have been appearing:

Windows Phone Sales See Global Gains, While BlackBerry Falters

BlackBerry sales crumble in UK as Android reigns | City A.M.


Microsoft’s Windows Phone appears to be making significant sales gains across the globe. According to WMPoweruser.com, which reported on a study by Kantar Worldpanel, Redmond’s smartphone OS saw modest sales increases in the U.S., Australia, Germany and Mexico, and huge gains in the U.K. and Germany.

The industry group reports that in the U.S. Windows Phone sales increased from 2.7 percent for the three months ending in February 2012 to 4.1 percent for the three months ending in February 2013. Sales of Windows Phones in Australia and China increased by 1.7 percent and 0.7 percent during the same time frame.

In the U.K., however, Windows Phone devices saw sales increases of 3.7 percent. Italian shoppers were even more likely to purchase Windows Phone handsets, with sales increasing by 7.7 percent compared to last year.Digsby
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Microsoft’s gains came at the expense of BlackBerry, which saw U.S. sales fall by 2.9 percent, moving Windows Phone ahead of BlackBerry in terms of smartphone sales. BlackBerry sales in Australia fell by 1.2 percent, while sales in Mexico dropped by 13 percent. Sales in the U.K. saw an equally precipitous decline, dropping by 11.7 percent.

BlackBerry’s sales drop in the U.K is especially disconcerting, because it takes into account the launch of the BlackBerry Z10. The company’s U.S. numbers, however, don’t include the BlackBerry Z10 launch, so they could see a boost in the coming months if American buyers pony up for the device.

(should note the two articles appear to contradict with one saying the z10 launch in the UK has been included, and the other saying it was excluded. The summary said: 3 months ending February, which would suggest no z10 figures were included, however, looking at Kantar's report, the time frame actually should cover the first two weeks after launch. A Kantar analyst states that the z10 did not turn around BB's fortunes, which probably resulted more confusion.)

[eddy_berry]

Yes. All very confused. I am not surprised by these articles. It will take plenty of time for any new phone OS to gain on the powerhouse Android and iOS platforms. Soon newer OS from Ubuntu, Firefox, etc. will be in the same boat. All depends on their target markets. Blackberry will gain back as they work out bugs and streamline their new OS. Until then some people are going to consider Windows Phone as a first alternative to Android and Apple. Some people see the potential in Blackberry now and are going for them at great risk to daily functionality. It is the fact that Windows Phone has had more time and resources to work out bugs and add features that will allow people to consider it a "safe" alternative over the competition. I think BBRY can do fine if they just keep at it. Focus on the OS. Focus on Business Enterprise.

[playbookster]

It would only cover UK and Canadian sales if any at all.

Posted via CB10

[mrfreetruth]

Total propaganda piece from Microsoft. Are you people even able to spot propaganda? The fact is NO ONE is talking about windows phone. Not in the news not anywhere . I have yet to see one windows phone in the wild not one...not even one. Why do you think Microsoft will not release any numbers? Windows Phone was hacked open in just hours by a teenaged Indian boy. The list of issues like rebooting ,freezing and syncing are just the tip of the Microsoft iceberg of problems. If it wasn't for Microsoft paying for these propaganda articles there would be no articles since no one cares.

Posted via CB10

[FSeverino]

It may be a case of both.

Yes it is numbers for the three months ending in february, which SHOULD include Z10... but realistically those numbers may not be there just for the fact that it is a brand new phone and tracking may not be up to par. I know that they send out product tracking info before devices, but with the Z10 i was hearing that some stores in Canada didnt even receive the ads until the day of launch.

I have no idea if this is true, but it could be the case. Either way, I think that 2 weeks of a new phone is nothing to worry about regardless. Sure it might have sold well, but it launched in only 2 markets and in limited numbers. The big test will be next quarter and after the summer.

[Thunderbuck]

Grain of salt.

There wasn't enough time for BB10 sales to make any meaningful impact in any of these regions except for the UK.

Talk to me in October.

Posted via CB10

[RubberChicken76]

Grain of salt.

There wasn't enough time for BB10 sales to make any meaningful impact in any of these regions except for the UK.

Talk to me in October.

Posted via CB10

Even the UK wasn't really a fair fight. The Z10 went on sale after Christmas ; after 2/3rds of the quarter was over and is only the first in the line vs a line of phones from a line of manufacturers. Give us the Q10 and a Curve device and then we'll see if this is serious traction for Windows Phone or short lived traction.

[richardat]

You guys shouldn't hyperfocus on the z10, as I mentioned, this should only cover 2 weeks of launch (in the case of the UK), the numbers are themselves very troubling - and suggestive of a number of things - but not about the z10.

We now now that z10 sales were mediocre - to put it generously, through February, whether those pick up or not, we shall see. So we "know" the impact of that month....actually what I find most troubling about these numbers are the traction that winphone has managed to gain....it's tiny, but there. It seems as though they are converting over some old Nokia customers (though obviously they're losing far more to Ios and android). #3 may end up being quite a dogfight.

[Thunderbuck]

Even the UK wasn't really a fair fight. The Z10 went on sale after Christmas ; after 2/3rds of the quarter was over and is only the first in the line vs a line of phones from a line of manufacturers. Give us the Q10 and a Curve device and then we'll see if this is serious traction for Windows Phone or short lived traction.

We'll see how it looks after a couple of quarters.

Posted via CB10

[Thunderbuck]

You guys shouldn't hyperfocus on the z10, as I mentioned, this should only cover 2 weeks of launch (in the case of the UK), the numbers are themselves very troubling - and suggestive of a number of things - but not about the z10.

We now now that z10 sales were mediocre - to put it generously, through February, whether those pick up or not, we shall see. So we "know" the impact of that month....actually what I find most troubling about these numbers are the traction that winphone has managed to gain....it's tiny, but there. It seems as though they are converting over some old Nokia customers (though obviously they're losing far more to Ios and android). #3 may end up being quite a dogfight.

I don't find these numbers especially "troubling". WP has been selling in such dismally small quantities that any improvement is going to be significant. I do think that it's something of a mistake to say that WP's success here is at BB's "expense". WP is up, due to new product with, honestly, some compelling features. BB's sales volume is off, due to stagnant product until the last weeks of the quarter.

BTW, it's EXTREMELY important to note that these percentages are absolutely meaningless in comparison to each other. So far as I can tell, the numbers that show increases of 3.7% in the UK and 7.7% in Italy don't reflect market share, but reflect an increase of WP sales in these markets from the previous year (unless they're being quoted wrongly here). If WP sold 1,000 phones in the quarter the previous year, and sold 1,037 this year, that's a gain of 3.7%. If BB sold 1mm phones in the quarter the year before, and sold 970k this year, then it would be off by 3%, but that doesn't mean it didn't sell orders of magnitude more than WP, or that WP is making that big a dent in BB sales.*

*btw, these are exaggerations for the sake of illustration; I'm sure WP overall sales were higher and BB sales were lower--just wanted to demonstrate that these numbers can be stated in such a way that they suggest more damage than they actually represent.

[sentimentGX4]

BTW, it's EXTREMELY important to note that these percentages are absolutely meaningless in comparison to each other. So far as I can tell, the numbers that show increases of 3.7% in the UK and 7.7% in Italy don't reflect market share, but reflect an increase of WP sales in these markets from the previous year (unless they're being quoted wrongly here).

It is my understanding that these figures do indicate actual increase in market share (not increases relative to WP's current marketshare). Well, at least that's from my understanding based on Engadget. They're all referring to the same source. *shrug*

The most dramatic ascent has taken place in Italy where it accounted for just 5.4 percent of handsets sold in February of 2012, and now makes up 13.1 percent of sales.

Windows Phone sees big gains at the expense of BlackBerry and Symbian
The chart doesn't make sense interpreted the other way when you start looking at the iOS and Android year on year numbers.



I don't think the gains were actually from an improvement of an OS. The gains were likely from improvement in specs. Regardless of how some individuals dismiss them, specs actually matter A LOT. Specs is most of the difference between the Lumia 900 and 920, which were released not that far apart. Microsoft should take note and be quicker to implement 1080p displays. Blackberry should follow suit as well and work quickly toward quad cores and devices with larger screen sizes.

[independentvolume]

Total propaganda piece from Microsoft. Are you people even able to spot propaganda? The fact is NO ONE is talking about windows phone. Not in the news not anywhere . I have yet to see one windows phone in the wild not one...not even one. Why do you think Microsoft will not release any numbers? Windows Phone was hacked open in just hours by a teenaged Indian boy. The list of issues like rebooting ,freezing and syncing are just the tip of the Microsoft iceberg of problems. If it wasn't for Microsoft paying for these propaganda articles there would be no articles since no one cares.

Posted via CB10

I have family with WP and none of them freeze and reboot. I think you are confusing WP with the Z10.

[independentvolume]

You guys shouldn't hyperfocus on the z10, as I mentioned, this should only cover 2 weeks of launch (in the case of the UK), the numbers are themselves very troubling - and suggestive of a number of things - but not about the z10.

We now now that z10 sales were mediocre - to put it generously, through February, whether those pick up or not, we shall see. So we "know" the impact of that month....actually what I find most troubling about these numbers are the traction that winphone has managed to gain....it's tiny, but there. It seems as though they are converting over some old Nokia customers (though obviously they're losing far more to Ios and android). #3 may end up being quite a dogfight.

I think Microsoft and BlackBerry will be forever deadlocked in a 3rd place tie of sorts. I don't see either being anything more than niche products. Apple and Android are just way too strong. Apple would have to mess up somehow which isn't impossible I guess.

[richardat]

BTW, it's EXTREMELY important to note that these percentages are absolutely meaningless in comparison to each other. So far as I can tell, the numbers that show increases of 3.7% in the UK and 7.7% in Italy don't reflect market share, but reflect an increase of WP sales in these markets from the previous year (unless they're being quoted wrongly here). If WP sold 1,000 phones in the quarter the previous year, and sold 1,037 this year, that's a gain of 3.7%. If BB sold 1mm phones in the quarter the year before, and sold 970k this year, then it would be off by 3%, but that doesn't mean it didn't sell orders of magnitude more than WP, or that WP is making that big a dent in BB sales.*
.

It is my understanding that these figures do indicate actual increase in market share (not increases relative to WP's current marketshare). Well, at least that's from my understanding based on Engadget. They're all referring to the same source. *shrug*

Windows Phone sees big gains at the expense of BlackBerry and Symbian
The chart doesn't make sense interpreted the other way when you start looking at the iOS and Android year on year numbers.
.

You're quite right sentimentGX4, the numbers represent actual marketshare, and even the summary charts don't make sense any other way. Not sure what you are seeing Thunderbuck.

If you'd like the numbers as percentage change from last year, then in the UK:
BB: -70% WP: +123%

Italy:
BB: -41% WP: +243%

The drops inGermany, US, and AUS, were actually greater in magnitude when measured this way:
-82% germany
- 81% US
- 92% australia
-39% Mexico

[pythons]

I think Microsoft and BlackBerry will be forever deadlocked in a 3rd place tie of sorts. I don't see either being anything more than niche products. Apple and Android are just way too strong. Apple would have to mess up somehow which isn't impossible I guess.

Does the Windows Phone, to shore up it's App gap, allow for Android side loading?

[richardat]

I think Microsoft and BlackBerry will be forever deadlocked in a 3rd place tie of sorts. I don't see either being anything more than niche products. Apple and Android are just way too strong. Apple would have to mess up somehow which isn't impossible I guess.

I agree. In the long-term, who knows what could happen, but it will take some time indeed for any change at the top - even though tech moves fast, so "long" is relative, there are no game-changers on the horizon ( unless somebody has a really big surprise).

I gave BB very little chance of regaining a big player spot, and the results (as paltry as they are....the first numbers), as well as anecdotal reports, are putting the nails in the coffin in that. The analyst reports seem to be on the money so far, the predicted 1 mil materialized.....we're probably looking at a 10-20mil scenario for the year. That will probably put them in a close fight with MS....though if MS can keep the upward trajectory, they could pull away. (I don't think they can - and I personally hope they can't!)

For MS it doesn't "matter" in that they can stay in the market for quite some time no matter what they sell, provided the will is there. It's dangerous....they don't need to hit it out of the park, they just have to wait, and wait, and wait, and if they get some traction, it could be the opening they need to pull into a clear #3.

[Dapper37]

Consider the source, all of them.
This is a double post anyway.
http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...e-bbry-790215/.

[FRoStYisGoD]

I think Microsoft and BlackBerry will be forever deadlocked in a 3rd place tie of sorts. I don't see either being anything more than niche products. Apple and Android are just way too strong. Apple would have to mess up somehow which isn't impossible I guess.

They won't be both third. One will take over the other, maybe not by a substantial amount but one will. It might be Microsoft it might be BlackBerry who knows.

I can tell u though Microsoft has all the money in the world to make windows phone work

Posted via CB10

[Thunderbuck]

I think Microsoft and BlackBerry will be forever deadlocked in a 3rd place tie of sorts. I don't see either being anything more than niche products. Apple and Android are just way too strong. Apple would have to mess up somehow which isn't impossible I guess.

Microsoft couldn't even beat Palm in the mobile space. In fact, Palm arguably sealed its own fate when it introduced a WinMo phone.

[Thunderbuck]

You're quite right sentimentGX4, the numbers represent actual marketshare, and even the summary charts don't make sense any other way. Not sure what you are seeing Thunderbuck.

If you'd like the numbers as percentage change from last year, then in the UK:
BB: -70% WP: +123%

Italy:
BB: -41% WP: +243%

The drops inGermany, US, and AUS, were actually greater in magnitude when measured this way:
-82% germany
- 81% US
- 92% australia
-39% Mexico

Okay, it's good to get the clarification. Again, WP has some new features and is going to capture at least a little attention. I don't think it has "legs", though.

There ARE more than incidental reports of random crashes. There ARE compatibility hurdles. And, maybe worst of all, there IS that strong, familial resemblance to Windows 8, and I can tell you that at least some users are expressing a very strong dislike for it.

I could be wrong, sure, but the bottom line with these numbers is that it's comparing a product that's just at the beginning of its life cycle with one that's over a year old. I'm personally skeptical that it's sustainable.

And feel free to bookmark this thread. Come back in six months and see if I'm wrong.

[Bbnivende]

Blackberry has an advantage... the same advantage that Apple has. They can design phones to take advantage of their OS and visa versa. There will always be a disconnect unless Microsoft builds their own phones. MS may be able do that but Blackberry has a big head start on equipment side.

[richardat]

Okay, it's good to get the clarification. Again, WP has some new features and is going to capture at least a little attention. I don't think it has "legs", though.

There ARE more than incidental reports of random crashes. There ARE compatibility hurdles. And, maybe worst of all, there IS that strong, familial resemblance to Windows 8, and I can tell you that at least some users are expressing a very strong dislike for it.

I could be wrong, sure, but the bottom line with these numbers is that it's comparing a product that's just at the beginning of its life cycle with one that's over a year old. I'm personally skeptical that it's sustainable.

And feel free to bookmark this thread. Come back in six months and see if I'm wrong.

You're preaching to the choir. I'm sure you've read threads in which I've expressed my general opinion of MS products....and the general competence of the company. Having said that, the winphone is not bad, for them, one of their better products. I am not at all sure it has a major crashing problem - any more than I'm sure that bb10 has a serious crashing problem. It would hardly surprise me though.

I've expressed skepticism about MS even within this thread, I do not think BB will do much better, but I don't think MS will be a strong number 3 either. As I've said even within this thread, it will probably be close. Having said that, the new cheaper winphones, and the advances MS has been making in some foreign markets are a very troubling angle to me, I don't think it is likely, but I think it's possible that they could gain in these markets and get a good foothold at #3. The potential for this is always very troubling to me.

[jimmyt1]

hahaha, followup..... same crap rehashed. You guys realize that these aren't numbers, but survey data. I don't know about any of you, but I participate in every survey that approaches me and I provide the absolute worst data. You're welcome.

So, little to no Z10 data - couldn't be given that blackberry hadn't reported yet. And with the impending launch of a new product, old device sales drop significantly for every device vendor. No surprise.

Here's a followup for you:

BlackBerry disputes Kantar market share research for GB | Mobile News Online

[RubberChicken76]

the predicted 1 mil materialized

A number of analysts were predicting a lot less than a million.

[I don't think they can - and I personally hope they can't!)

Do my eyes deceive me? Did RichardDat just say something ... gasp ... positive about BlackBerry? The moon must be off kilter today!

For MS it doesn't "matter" in that they can stay in the market for quite some time no matter what they sell, provided the will is there.

That's where I would be afraid. Microsoft doesn't always waltz in and "win", but they have shown a willingness to bleed money for years (XBox) and they have a vested interest here. I bet the senior execs at Microsoft are up late worrying every day about iPads and Smartphones being used at the expense of desktops and laptops. Microsoft was invincible for years in the OS space and Office space. So much so that the massive profits from those two units could fund money losing and marginal businesses. If one of those engines is put at risk, there is much more incentive to fight back.

[RubberChicken76]

Blackberry has an advantage... the same advantage that Apple has. They can design phones to take advantage of their OS and visa versa. There will always be a disconnect unless Microsoft builds their own phones. MS may be able do that but Blackberry has a big head start on equipment side.

All companies have advantages. Microsoft has a pretty killer advantage in their developer strategy. Years of making tools and years of supporting developers on Windows make them (by the standards of a lot of developers) the gold standard in supporting developers. Couple that in with them being willing to just toss cash left right and centre at developers and they definitely have an app edge right now.

(I think Alec Saunders is doing an outstanding job relative to his predecessors but some things just don't come about overnight.