[Homo Erectus]

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Whether intentional or not, RIM isn't doing a great job at keeping its new BlackBerry phone a secret.

Over the last few weeks, there have been several leaks of the BlackBerry Z10, the first device that'll run RIM's new BlackBerry 10 mobile operating system.

Most recently, a source sent me some photos of two Z10s he's been testing �� one running on Verizon and another on AT&T �� along with a few first impressions.

Here's a taste of what my source told me:
�The Z10's build quality is really solid, with a rubber back that snaps off so you can replace the battery.
�The screen looks nice and has a high resolution.
�Web browsing is very fast, just as fast as browsing on your desktop.
�BB10 lets you set up separate profiles for work and personal use. This is perfect for those who don't want to carry around a separate work phone.
�The hardware is pretty fast and boots up in less than a minute.

Like most analysts, I only think BB10 has a modest chance of success. It's taken RIM way too long to finally catch up with Apple's iOS and Google's Android, and it'll take some sort of miracle to make consumers and big-time developers care this late in the game.

That's not necessarily because Android and iOS are better, but it is because that's where the vast majority of the users already are. Google and Apple already have the rich content and app ecosystems people want.

With BB10, RIM is starting from scratch. Aside from a few developers and early testers, there are zero BB10 users in the world. I'm sure BB10's app store will have many of the basics at launch, but when it comes to delivering the popular apps and updates people want, I doubt developers will deliver them to BB10. And that's what users really care about.

It's the same problem that plagues Windows Phones.

But all that aside, the more I hear about the Z10, the more intrigued I get. The Z10 hardware looks good. The leaked, near-final version of BB10 looks good. (Even the test version of BB10 developers are using is really nice.)

On paper, that adds up to a phone I'd at least consider using. As much as I love my iPhone 5 and Galaxy S III, I'm bored with them. (After five years, iOS feels especially stale.) The only major thing keeping me away from something fresh like Windows Phone is the lack of app developer support.

I have a feeling the story will be the same once I get my hands on the Z10. It'll be a great phone and operating system, but won't come with the guarantee that I'll be getting the best content that iOS and Android already have.

And I have the feeling that no matter how good the final product is, it's too late for the Z10 to be the monster hit RIM needs it to be.

RIM's Next BlackBerry Looks Great, But It'll Take A Miracle To Make People Care - Yahoo! Finance

[RubberChicken76]

"but it is because that's where the vast majority of the users already are."

As always, while this is an important consideration in the smartphone race, it's still missing key points.

1. The Smartphone market is still growing rapidly because more people in most places are still on feature phones. This takes the view that RIM needs to convince people to switch from iPhone and Android to survive. Maybe that would be the case if the Smartphone market had flattened or declined, but it's still growing because of the feature phone upgraders.

2. 79 million people have stuck with (arguably) the most ridiculed company in the media for the last two years, which suggest some people do 'still care' and 'will ugprade'

3. There's this assumption that everyone who buys a smartphone is 'locked in' and won't switch. While I think this is true for some customers, I think many of these analysts and journalists assume that everyone pays for apps and content and is fiercely loyal. There's a lot of people out there with iPhones and other devices who use them more casually. And in my own social circle, I've seen several drop the iPhone for something else in the last few months. Just as I saw many drop the BlackBerry before it

[mrfreetruth]

Consumers are fickle and when they see the nice resolution and how fast the web browsing is compared to their current phone plus all the other stuff like peak , flow ,hub and surprises they will switch to bb10. I know many die hard iPhone fans that were set on their ways but they quickly dropped iPhone for SG3 like iPhone never existed. Now they make fun of apple . The masses are very fickle and apple and Google knows this and thus paid articles like this.

[ibpluto]

122,000+ is the rumored app count to date. Apps should not be the issue.

IMO, there are now only 2 remaining hurdles for RIM. The first is a good marketing strategy, second is media support. One they are in control over, the other they are not.

[bluetroll]

he cares because he wrote the article. so he is incorrect.

[hasa77]

i do quite like the OP's post. I think it highlights good points and doesnt take side. however i would tell the OP not to give up before its gone, lets wait and see how good this phone is, if the phone is amazing, people will flock to it and developers will follow. Im sure all major developers will make an app but small apps (like the million of so flashlights apps on iphone wont follow) but all the real major and needed apps will come i believe. In conclusion, dont give up before its begun. My issues is marketing, bb has such a negative image. my friend didnt like the idea of bb 10 just because its a bb even if its been built from scrath. So clearly bb needs to build a good reliable phone that people will talk about and look at different to the current bb phones that have such negativity. Another friend said a bb without a keyboard is not a bb, but i pointed out there are 2 models coming out, one WITH a keyboard, and she replied mehrr, its a bb and mine was slow...

[dbmalloy]

I find the OP viewpoint rather anusing.....what keeps being missed is what is happening in the smartphone market.... because of fragmentation ( Android ) and lack of real innovation ( Apple ) lmany users are becoming bored..... this is where new bells and whitstles are important...... This is why OS such as BB10.... Mego....Ubantu....and Teizen may have a better chance than most think as boredom leads to change....

As for too much info being released prior to launch.... well if you are an Apple or Samsung,,,, you have the reputation "mystery products" work for you... In RIM's case they have to change their current reputation .... by showing the smartphone community "they get it" which can only be done by show and tell..... So in my mind RIM has taken the only path they could....

[Tre Lawrence]

*whispers* Ecosystem. A beautiful all-round experience will make people stay and invest in it.

... and no, apps alone don't make up a compelling ecosystem.

[simu31]

This article is wrong on so many levels it beggars belief.

Lets take a few choice pieces

.Like most analysts, I only think BB10 has a modest chance of success.

RIM doesn't need anything more than a "modest chance"... especially if (as he seems to be) he is comparing to iOS or Android in sales numbers. They only need 18 million(ish) handset sales to turn a profit. Really not a lot compared to the two main rivals.

That's not necessarily because Android and iOS are better, but it is because that's where the vast majority of the users already are. Google and Apple already have the rich content and app ecosystems people want.

The US, where there is the highest percentage smartphone penetration, is still only at 53% penetration. Does this "analysts" believe also that it is too late in the game (as he is speculating here) for the remaining 47%? Does this "analyst" also believe that there should only be a duopoly of available handsets?

With BB10, RIM is starting from scratch. Aside from a few developers and early testers, there are zero BB10 users in the world.

Yes, hence "starting from scratch", what does he expect? That there's a massive number of installed users for a system that doesn't exist yet? The sentance in and of itself is stupid

but when it comes to delivering the popular apps and updates people want, I doubt developers will deliver them to BB10. And that's what users really care about.

Maybe, maybe not. But BB10 will still hit the road running with more apps in the BlackBerry World than any other platform at launch. Also, just as an added reminder / question to this "analyst", the percentage of apps in [for example] the Apple app store which have never, not even once, been downloaded is what? ... Answer: 40%!
All these developers which the "analyst" believes will not deliver to BB10, may also be part of the 40%. They may be annoyed at not having visibility with another platform and port to BB10.

It's the same problem that plagues Windows Phones.

Not really. There are two bigger problems with Windows Phone. 1/ Microsoft only made the APIs and other necessary tools to build for Windows Phone 8 very close to launch. 2/ Windows Phone 7 showed terrible traction over its existance and Windows Phone 8 seems to be going backwards... RIM, even with an out-of-date product portfolio, still did better.

But all that aside, the more I hear about the Z10, the more intrigued I get. The Z10 hardware looks good. The leaked, near-final version of BB10 looks good. (Even the test version of BB10 developers are using is really nice.)

Backtracking a bit here. Possibly trying to cover his bases in case he's wrong?

On paper, that adds up to a phone I'd at least consider using. As much as I love my iPhone 5 and Galaxy S III, I'm bored with them. (After five years, iOS feels especially stale.)

And why does this "analyst" not think that others feel the same as him and would be willing to change too(?)

And I have the feeling that no matter how good the final product is, it's too late for the Z10 to be the monster hit RIM needs it to be.

RIM doesn't need a "monster hit", 18million units and they're profitable again. Also, as I said at the beginning, it's not "too late" until the global market gets to about 70 - 75% penetration, and we're still a long way off that. Yes, the US has the highest penetration rates, brings in a lot of money for mobile makers, but the rest of the world is pretty frickin' big too.

I have to ask exactly how knowledgable this "analyst" is as he seems to be caughing up some very tired and predictable excuses (too little, too late - no apps) for his opinions.

Si.

[tonyrenier]

I find the OP viewpoint rather anusing.....what keeps being missed is what is happening in the smartphone market.... because of fragmentation ( Android ) and lack of real innovation ( Apple ) lmany users are becoming bored..... this is where new bells and whitstles are important...... This is why OS such as BB10.... Mego....Ubantu....and Teizen may have a better chance than most think as boredom leads to change....

As for too much info being released prior to launch.... well if you are an Apple or Samsung,,,, you have the reputation "mystery products" work for you... In RIM's case they have to change their current reputation .... by showing the smartphone community "they get it" which can only be done by show and tell..... So in my mind RIM has taken the only path they could....

Realize that the OP is simply a copy and paste of the Yahoo Finance article By Steve Kovach. It may not be his/her personal opinion, that was omitted. The financial anal-ysts have been dissing RIM for as long as I have held stock (about a year). I really don't think those who write on Tech have a clue although I was pleased to see Bonnie Cha from Cnet join All Things D, she will hopefully lend some perspective. A couple of months ago there was an article on how bored users are with IOS and Android, there was another on how fickle tech consumers are. And, of course we know that everyone from the FBI on down has been giving warnings about Android's lack of security. I'm on board with BB 10, though I'm not sure I'll wait for the QWERTY, the Z10 is looking mighty fine and my 9650 is dependable but looking worn.

[darkehawke]

This article is wrong on so many levels it beggars belief.

Lets take a few choice pieces
RIM doesn't need anything more than a "modest chance"... especially if (as he seems to be) he is comparing to iOS or Android in sales numbers. They only need 18 million(ish) handset sales to turn a profit. Really not a lot compared to the two main rivals.

The US, where there is the highest percentage smartphone penetration, is still only at 53% penetration. Does this "analysts" believe also that it is too late in the game (as he is speculating here) for the remaining 47%? Does this "analyst" also believe that there should only be a duopoly of available handsets?

Yes, hence "starting from scratch", what does he expect? That there's a massive number of installed users for a system that doesn't exist yet? The sentance in and of itself is stupid

Maybe, maybe not. But BB10 will still hit the road running with more apps in the BlackBerry World than any other platform at launch. Also, just as an added reminder / question to this "analyst", the percentage of apps in [for example] the Apple app store which have never, not even once, been downloaded is what? ... Answer: 40%!
All these developers which the "analyst" believes will not deliver to BB10, may also be part of the 40%. They may be annoyed at not having visibility with another platform and port to BB10.

Not really. There are two bigger problems with Windows Phone. 1/ Microsoft only made the APIs and other necessary tools to build for Windows Phone 8 very close to launch. 2/ Windows Phone 7 showed terrible traction over its existance and Windows Phone 8 seems to be going backwards... RIM, even with an out-of-date product portfolio still did better.

Backtracking a bit here. Possibly trying to cover his bases in case he's wrong?

And why does this "analyst" not think that others feel the same as him and would be willing to change too?

RIM doesn't need a "monster hit", 18million units and they're profitable again. Also, as I said at the beginning, it's not "too late" until the global market gets to about 70 - 75% penetration, and were still a long way off that. Yes, the US has the highest penetration rates, brings in a lot of money for mobile makers, but the rest of the world is pretty frickin' big too.

I have to ask exactly how knowledgable this "analyst" is as he seems to be caughing up some very tired and predictable excuses (too little, too late - no apps) for his opinions.

Si.

just out of curiousity. where are you getting this 18million figure from?


Sent from my BlackBerry 9810 using Tapatalk

[SlcCorrado]

Nothing new here. Another pointless opinion piece

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I think the article pretty much sums it up.

As a devices the new BB10's look really good.

But unless RIM has held back something surprising, that may not mean anything to most consumers.

Is it an iPhone? So will the 30-%40% of people that are "convinced" they need an iPhone buy one?? NO (most either buy an iPhone or get a cheaper Android device... now WHEN RIM does have a low cost version it should do well)
Will someone who is invested in the Apple ecosystem and is happy with the iPhone change??? NO
Will someone who wants either the newest and fastest hardware go for one?? NO
Will someone who wants a cheap smart phone (0-$50) ON Contract be able to afford one?? NO (rare that even BBOS7 Curves get this cheap)

So who will buy one?
Existing BB users.
Businesses and Gov renewing contracts.
People who have never had a smartphone (not many left like this - and can afford one), but have heard the name BB.
Few Tech types who buy one of everything.

RIM is starting ALL over in a way. But most "start-up" companies have to have either something unique or something the is very low cost. BB10 is new, but not really unique. Mobile Fusion is maybe the most unique feature, but how many consumers will use it?

But all of this is just opinions and speculation. Will see in a couple of weeks what RIM has to offer and then will have to wait a few months and see how well it does.

[Thunderbuck]

I have a feeling the story will be the same once I get my hands on the Z10. It'll be a great phone and operating system, but won't come with the guarantee that I'll be getting the best content that iOS and Android already have.

And I have the feeling that no matter how good the final product is, it's too late for the Z10 to be the monster hit RIM needs it to be.

The writer is entitled to his "feelings", but at the end of the day it remains speculation until the phones actually hit the market.

Bear in mind that we're talking about a financial analyst who has no direct knowledge of the product and doesn't seem to have looked at what the company is doing differently. We're going to see many such opinions in the coming weeks.

[Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes]

Not sure why the original poster said "this late in the game". The mobile computing world is in its infancy. The most popular OS was just launched 3 or 4 years ago but yet it is claimed its late in the game?????

[Thunderbuck]

I think the article pretty much sums it up.

As a devices the new BB10's look really good.

But unless RIM has held back something surprising, that may not mean anything to most consumers.

Is it an iPhone? So will the 30-%40% of people that are "convinced" they need an iPhone buy one?? NO (most either buy an iPhone or get a cheaper Android device... now WHEN RIM does have a low cost version it should do well)
Will someone who is invested in the Apple ecosystem and is happy with the iPhone change??? NO
Will someone who wants either the newest and fastest hardware go for one?? NO
Will someone who wants a cheap smart phone (0-$50) ON Contract be able to afford one?? NO (rare that even BBOS7 Curves get this cheap)

So who will buy one?
Existing BB users.
Businesses and Gov renewing contracts.
People who have never had a smartphone (not many left like this - and can afford one), but have heard the name BB.
Few Tech types who buy one of everything.

RIM is starting ALL over in a way. But most "start-up" companies have to have either something unique or something the is very low cost. BB10 is new, but not really unique. Mobile Fusion is maybe the most unique feature, but how many consumers will use it?

But all of this is just opinions and speculation. Will see in a couple of weeks what RIM has to offer and then will have to wait a few months and see how well it does.

In my own opinion, you're missing a couple of things:

1) There's a bunch of enterprise customers who are currently on BES, and would like to move to BYOD. The path of least resistance for this is to upgrade to Mobile Fusion and/or BES10. Once they've done this, they'll find that BB10 is the best device because of how seamlessly Balance is integrated.

2) At the risk of sounding like a mindless fanboi, BB10 actually does have some distinctions, and some of them are obvious enough to win people over. As trivial as a virtual keyboard might sound, it's a key interface element and the BB10 kb is good enough--and distinctive enough--to win people over. The screen resolution is better than Apple's highly touted "Retina" displays. And the Active Frames feature is a much more effective way of switching apps and shutting them down than iOS can offer.

What I think is going to happen is that the enthusiast community will be the first buyers, along with key enterprise customers. That will get enough handsets out there for those early customers to spread the word. And it will be their word of mouth that will start convincing the non-enthusiast market.

[BBThemes]

i love the `its too late` and `ecosystem` comments, yet last week bloggers the world over were fawning over the ubuntu phone thats not out, doesnt have a date etc etc etc.

[silversun10]

if it will take a miracle, that's OK, in the launch event thread it was mentioned God will show up,
so RIM has covered all bases, don't worry, be happy.....

[travaz]

One of the points that several people made here is boredom = change. I don't know if that is really true. I know dozens of people that have Android or IOS and they wouldn't change because they are familiar with the system they have. One of my coworkers told me she though that BB10 was cool after showing her some of the video's that are out. Then she stated
" I just dont want to try and learn how to work a new phone. I am familiar with my Android and it does what I want" I think the real market is the people that are just now coming to SmartPhones. They wont have an idea on what they may want. If BB10 is a WOW than it can capture a lot of that market especially if it is presented as the "Newest OS" I believe in BB10

[Thunderbuck]

One of the points that several people made here is boredom = change. I don't know if that is really true. I know dozens of people that have Android or IOS and they wouldn't change because they are familiar with the system they have. One of my coworkers told me she though that BB10 was cool after showing her some of the video's that are out. Then she stated
" I just dont want to try and learn how to work a new phone. I am familiar with my Android and it does what I want" I think the real market is the people that are just now coming to SmartPhones. They wont have an idea on what they may want. If BB10 is a WOW than it can capture a lot of that market especially if it is presented as the "Newest OS" I believe in BB10

There's always the issue of user resistance, for sure. And by now you have a population of users that have sunk hundreds--maybe even thousands--of dollars into apps and would be extremely reluctant to give them up. These users wouldn't be RIM's focus anyway.

Where you can start to drive a wedge: there's the odd BB10 feature that's very visible and very cool. The keyboard and the Scalado camera are good examples. There's going to be the odd case where a user has an old iPhone or Android that's about to come off contract, and a friend might show off a new BB10 to them and they'll decide it's cool enough to take a closer look at.

[timmy t]

I had to get minor car work done today. I had my PlayBook in my hand and the service advisor noted that. Then he said the new BlackBerrys are coming out soon and they are so much better than the other phones that they will be a huge hit.
He was very confused about the OS but he seemed to think it was really going to be successful.

[timmy t]

There's always the issue of user resistance, for sure. And by now you have a population of users that have sunk hundreds--maybe even thousands--of dollars into apps and would be extremely reluctant to give them up. These users wouldn't be RIM's focus anyway.

Where you can start to drive a wedge: there's the odd BB10 feature that's very visible and very cool. The keyboard and the Scalado camera are good examples. There's going to be the odd case where a user has an old iPhone or Android that's about to come off contract, and a friend might show off a new BB10 to them and they'll decide it's cool enough to take a closer look at.

I spent thousands on a desktop computer in the 1990s more than once. I think some people will change without hesitation if they think it is better and some won't unless they absolutely have to. Remember, RIM just needs 10 or 15% to change to be a huge success.

[taz323]

.



Symbol


Whether intentional or not, RIM isn't doing a great job at keeping its new BlackBerry phone a secret.

Over the last few weeks, there have been several leaks of the BlackBerry Z10, the first device that'll run RIM's new BlackBerry 10 mobile operating system.

Most recently, a source sent me some photos of two Z10s he's been testing �� one running on Verizon and another on AT&T �� along with a few first impressions.

Here's a taste of what my source told me:
�The Z10's build quality is really solid, with a rubber back that snaps off so you can replace the battery.
�The screen looks nice and has a high resolution.
�Web browsing is very fast, just as fast as browsing on your desktop.
�BB10 lets you set up separate profiles for work and personal use. This is perfect for those who don't want to carry around a separate work phone.
�The hardware is pretty fast and boots up in less than a minute.

Like most analysts, I only think BB10 has a modest chance of success. It's taken RIM way too long to finally catch up with Apple's iOS and Google's Android, and it'll take some sort of miracle to make consumers and big-time developers care this late in the game.

That's not necessarily because Android and iOS are better, but it is because that's where the vast majority of the users already are. Google and Apple already have the rich content and app ecosystems people want.

With BB10, RIM is starting from scratch. Aside from a few developers and early testers, there are zero BB10 users in the world. I'm sure BB10's app store will have many of the basics at launch, but when it comes to delivering the popular apps and updates people want, I doubt developers will deliver them to BB10. And that's what users really care about.

It's the same problem that plagues Windows Phones.

But all that aside, the more I hear about the Z10, the more intrigued I get. The Z10 hardware looks good. The leaked, near-final version of BB10 looks good. (Even the test version of BB10 developers are using is really nice.)

On paper, that adds up to a phone I'd at least consider using. As much as I love my iPhone 5 and Galaxy S III, I'm bored with them. (After five years, iOS feels especially stale.) The only major thing keeping me away from something fresh like Windows Phone is the lack of app developer support.

I have a feeling the story will be the same once I get my hands on the Z10. It'll be a great phone and operating system, but won't come with the guarantee that I'll be getting the best content that iOS and Android already have.

And I have the feeling that no matter how good the final product is, it's too late for the Z10 to be the monster hit RIM needs it to be.

RIM's Next BlackBerry Looks Great, But It'll Take A Miracle To Make People Care - Yahoo! Finance

we will see, I know know where I will be

[pooger]

i love the `its too late` and `ecosystem` comments, yet last week bloggers the world over were fawning over the ubuntu phone thats not out, doesnt have a date etc etc etc.

I believe the reason why they don't care about ecosystem when it comes to ubuntu is because they are dreaming about their phone being a pocket computer running a computer operating system. If this were theoretically possible, then there would be no need for ecosystem because then your phone would just run mainstream computer software.

[sexybabe88]

author manages to subtly bash all platforms in 1 article.

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