1. kevinnugent's Avatar
    Interesting article. I'll quote all the texts because some won't want to click on BGR. Analysts defend Microsoft's position, but don't say anything about RIM.

    Anyway, here's the text:


    An analyst from financial research firm Global Equities Research has some bad news for Microsoft (MSFT) and Research in Motion (RIMM). In an interview with eWeek, Trip Chowdhry predicted that Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) will control 98% of the mobile market by the end of 2012. �There will not be any third spot left,� he said. �Nokia, Microsoft and RIM will struggle in the remaining 2 percent of the market.� Research firm IDC in August found that Google and Apple controlled 85% of the global market, however Chowdhry defended his bold prediction.

    �It is not the quantity of people you talk to,� the analyst explained. �In a random sampling of people, when three people in a row say the same thing, you know you have it right.� For his prediction, Chowdhry interviewed only 15 iOS and Android developers at different mobile technology conferences. The percentage was then based on the developers� insights on the mobile marketplace.

    �Developers will go to the platform where you have devices and you have monetization,� he said. �If you look at Apple, they have 400 million devices in the market, with more than 400 million user credit card numbers in their system,� where developers can make potential sales of their apps. �What that means for a developer is that they have 400 million people waiting to buy. That is a critical asset that Apple has. If you go to the Windows market, they don�t have 400 million devices or credit card numbers.�

    At least one analyst disagrees, however. �I think that the 98 percent prediction is pretty aggressive. Certainly, it�s going to come down to people and their loyalties,� said Dan Maycock of Slalom Consulting, noting that Microsoft also makes money on every Android device sold.

    �Microsoft has too much money, too much entrenchment in the enterprise market and too much to lose to let [a possible 2 percent market share] happen to them,� Maycock concluded. �If they have to give away enough devices to get more than 2 percent of the market, they could do it.�
    09-17-12 05:09 PM
  2. kbz1960's Avatar
    Whoopie! I'm happy?
    09-17-12 05:25 PM
  3. amazinglygraceless's Avatar
    I wouldn't take not mentioning RIM as a slight. It is just the reality that Microsoft has more assets to throw at maintaining / growing their position.

    What bothers me is the idea that talking to such a small sample of developers could lead this particular analyst to this conclusion.
    09-17-12 05:28 PM
  4. kozmo68's Avatar
    Anal-ysts get payed to come up with $hit. If you talk to developers they want options to make money. At the end of the day, do you want to develop apps to exclsuvly compete with 600K other apps or would you also like the opporotunity to make money competing against several thousand. Comes down to easy of programing and until now BB has not made it easy... If I can recode your app easily for multiple platforms why wouldn't they do so, only makes sense. Maybe I'm way off, guess thats why I'm not an analyst.
    09-17-12 05:35 PM
  5. ccbs's Avatar
    I like this quote:

    “Microsoft has too much money, too much entrenchment in the enterprise market and too much to lose to let [a possible 2 percent market share] happen to them,” Maycock concluded. “If they have to give away enough devices to get more than 2 percent of the market, they could do it.”

    If it does come down to throwing money to gain momentum and market share, there are only a few handful of guys can make it. Let's just say RIM with shrinking service revenue will have no chance but to sell itself. Made no mistake, this has high chances of happening. I have always told people that Nokia's choice might look stupid looking at that particular instance, but in due time it will be looked upon as a forward looking decision.
    09-17-12 11:01 PM
  6. Frosty_Power's Avatar
    RIM dominated the market, then came Apple. Right now it's Android. Microsoft is up next with their new lineup. It's only a matter of time. Then hopefully it will come full circle and back.
    09-17-12 11:20 PM
  7. Roo Zilla's Avatar
    98% is more than a bit extreme, especially by the end of this year. In the quarter ending in June, Android and iOS stood at a little over 83%, and most likely, it won't change drastically in the next 3 months. The only thing that might significantly alter the landscape would be if smartphone adoption rates increase drastically over the next few months in emerging markets, and none of the new buyers buy anything but Android and iOS, more likely Android, a highly unlikely scenario on multiple counts.
    09-17-12 11:46 PM
  8. BBPandy's Avatar
    I don't give this any credit. They came up with the 98% after polling 15 Developers. How can they come up with an accurate number to represent the entire world after interviewing such a small amount of people?
    09-18-12 12:55 AM
  9. hurds's Avatar
    When the message in constantly the same you gotta question the messenger's motivation or maybe even intellect.

    Both platforms are extremely vulnerable to something as simple as a major US carriers whim. I'll never understand the 2 platform cheerleaders. Choice is a good thing, and competition benefits the consumer.
    09-18-12 02:46 AM
  10. Masahiro's Avatar
    I sure hope no one is excited about the prospect of two operating systems having almost 100% share of the market...
    09-18-12 02:51 AM
  11. richardat's Avatar
    98 percent is a bit over the top, but otherwise I think he's quite right about no real 3rd place. I expect MS to fail badly. I think Google and Apple will remain roughly the same, RIM will shrink, MS will creep up by an insignificant amount.

    EDIT: actually, I"ll change that. I think Apple may gain from cheap iphone 4's, and Android may be hurt, depending on what they have to do to get their OS clear of Apple patents.
    Last edited by richardat; 09-18-12 at 03:54 AM.
    09-18-12 03:50 AM
  12. iankeiththomas's Avatar
    Who cares if 2 platforms have the vast majority of the market? That works out perfectly well in other areas of tech. It's a good thing, in fact, because it means support is concentrated in a couple places, and 2 firms one-upping one another with the occasional disruption from a smaller third party provides plenty of incentive for improvement. I'm not really sure what's to be gained from a smattering of mobile platforms.

    That said, Microsoft will pour every last dime it has into establishing a foothold in the mobile market, so don't expect it to go away.
    09-18-12 09:04 AM
  13. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Anal-ysts get payed to come up with $hit. If you talk to developers they want options to make money. At the end of the day, do you want to develop apps to exclsuvly compete with 600K other apps or would you also like the opporotunity to make money competing against several thousand. Comes down to easy of programing and until now BB has not made it easy... If I can recode your app easily for multiple platforms why wouldn't they do so, only makes sense. Maybe I'm way off, guess thats why I'm not an analyst.
    I'm still wondering that too...

    But there is a difference between recoding so your app will run on the App Player and recoding so that it will run native on an OS. Too many Android developers are just porting their apps to run on the PlayBook's Android Player - which is still too buggy.

    But that said, I'm really surprised by how few Android Developers have bothered with the PlayBook. Is it just that they know that there are only a couple million PlayBooks and that the PlayBook OS is already EOL? Are they waiting for BB10? Or are the just so pro Android that they just do not want to help a competing platform?

    BOT
    It will be interesting to see where RIM's marketshare is when BB10 is finally released.
    09-18-12 01:04 PM
  14. BBGeek4Ever's Avatar
    Who cares if 2 platforms have the vast majority of the market? That works out perfectly well in other areas of tech. It's a good thing, in fact, because it means support is concentrated in a couple places, and 2 firms one-upping one another with the occasional disruption from a smaller third party provides plenty of incentive for improvement. I'm not really sure what's to be gained from a smattering of mobile platforms.

    That said, Microsoft will pour every last dime it has into establishing a foothold in the mobile market, so don't expect it to go away.

    Microsoft on its new hand set:

    >> Congratulations on your New Windows Phone 8 purchase
    >> .......{Screen go's blank}......
    >> Windows 8 phone shut down unexpected....again! (just like IE)
    >> Windows is faking for a solution to WHY WINDOWS SUCKS!
    >> ...........
    >> SOLUTION FOUND!!
    >> Go with the slightly less sh***y Mac untill Blackberry makes a Desktop!!



    Sent from my BlackBerry 9900 using Tapatalk
    09-18-12 03:26 PM
  15. Majestic Lion's Avatar
    98%...of the world market.

    Seems legit.
    09-18-12 03:38 PM
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