[CrackedBarry]

So... Apparently RIM has warehouses full of Playbooks they can't sell and are slowing down production. There should be a software update within the next month or two, but there are hardly any news about the 4G Playbook that supposedly should be on the way, to replace the 3G Playbook that the carriers dropped.

But what's next in the Playbooks future? Firesale? Cancellation? New models? What do you think?

I think, that based on the very poor sales of the PB, we'll see a firesale (the early stages of which we're already seeing) and depending on the response for the initial 100$ off offers, there'll be Playbooks 2-300 cheaper than the current pricing between now and christmas.

Now if the response to that sale is really a gamechanger (And I doubt it will be for various reasons. Not just because of the upcoming iPhone5/iPad3, but also because all of the Android tablets will be on sale as they try to clear the inventory before introducing new models for Christmas) than it might mean that the Playbook gets a second chance, but the more likely result will be that the Playbook will get quietly dropped.

(Not officially cancelled. There won't be a big announcement from RIM. Instead, you'll probably still be able to order it online from RIM, but it'll disappear from stores, and without a successor in the works, the practical result will be cancellation.)

Why?

First of all, apparently there's no Playbook2. All other tablets will have their next generation models out early next year, but we don't hear about anything of the sort from RIM. That doesn't mean they're not planning for one or prototyping it, but IF they were, there would be bound to be leaks and rumours like we hear from all other manufacturers. And so far there hasn't been any. Again: That doesn't make a Playbook2 an impossibility. It just makes it very unlikely.

Secondly, RIM has taken a major financial hit on the Playbook. They were planning to sell 5 million, but so far haven't even shipped a million? OUCH!
RIM can probably sell the rest of them for around 300$ but that won't make it profitable, it'll only make the loss somewhat smaller.
The problem with that is, that if RIM chooses to go the way of the firesale in order to get more PBs out there, and to minimize their loss, they'll also have to either cancel their future tablet plans or change them in a significant way. It's pretty darn hard to sell something at 500$ if you were selling it at half that price a few months earlier.

Thirdly, QNX. RIM (hopefully) knows that their future as an independant player in the industry depends on a QNX phone being a success. That means they can't afford to mess around, and don't want to risk splitting up their QNX team between a phone and a tablet.
Their original plan was probably to make the Playbook a success this year, devote all of 2012 to make a line of QNX phones, along with releasing a 10 inch Playbook and cell radio enabled Playbooks, and then wait till 2013 to release a Playbook 2.

The way things have gone, however, means that there is very little interest in the Playbook from the carriers, and RIM needs to focus on their QNX phones. That means no new Playbooks next year, and since development on a Playbook2 needs to start next year in order to be ready for 2013, no Playbook2 at all.

Opinions?

[lawguyman]

What you are saying is close to what I think.

I think that we'll eventually see a Playbook 2 or another RIM tablet with a different name. But, I think that RIM will not position it as an iPad competitor. It will be a lower volume niche product that is marketed mostly to Blackberry owners as a complimentary product.

In retrospect, RIM would have been smart to undersell Playbook by marketing it in this low key way instead of overpromising and underdelivering.

Playbook should have been an appetite whetter.

If RIM had said that our Playbooks were devices meant to be complimentary to BB Phones and ordered only 200k, it could have said that Playbook met or exceeded expectations. Then, it could have built on Playbook's success and launched Playbook 2 on a larger scale. It should never have attempted this consumer marketing campaign and selling them through Best Buy and Staples. It should have quietly sold them exclusively through its web site or select online retailers.

Who could complain about the missing features if it was marketed and sold in this way? All the while, work on OS2 would be going on behind the scenes and Playbook 2 and QNX phones could be launched together.

Hindsight is great.

[Chaddface]

Every electronic device will be phased out at some point. I think 5 months is a bit early to talk about that. I hope the next OS is enough of an improvement to generate some interest among reviewers. The hardware is solid enough to stay around for awhile.

[ScoobsDM]

All seems reasonable, except the fact that no company will sit quietly and not try to take some market share in the next big thing. RIM has a lot of work ahead of them just to maintain the market share they have on phones. I think everyone here can agree on one thing, Playbook sales fall short due to RIM's lack of software support.

This lack of support from developers is due to a numbers game. Their are how many companies making Android devices compared to BBos. Now, I know someone will say "Apple only makes their OS!", APPLE HAS MAJORITY MARKET SHARE! These numbers point to Apple having 45% market, Android having 40%, leaving rim with like 15%. Now these numbers are NOT FACT, just saying as a estimate, naturally more developers are going to flock to these devices and cater to them. I would personally hate to see the Playbook project get scrapped, but no company is going to continue a project that it takes a loss on. Look at HP, then knew they couldn't compete in the market. For awhile i was seeing alot of Playbook commercials, they seem to have slacked off to about a fourth of what i was seeing.

Now, I have always defended the Playbook and i love mine. I use it daily for work and it does exactly what i need. I love the bridge aspect, I can honestly say roughly 85% of my use with my playbook involves the bridge features. i love the fact that it is smaller then some of the other tablets easy to carry and walk around with. I think RIM needs to come up with better marketing aspect other then "It has FLASH!" That is a BS marketing technique, Ipads do not have it and out sale PB's. So, how can a tablet that does not have "full internet" out sale one that does??

The Ipad, Ipod, Iphone craze has taking the world and no matter what company comes out with it they will always be second to Apple. People these days will not give up their Iphones for just any device. They will not give up their Ipads for another tablet. RIM needs to step up and not follow but lead like they once did. RIM needs to step back, take a look at whats out there and jump 2 steps forward. We dont need another app tablet, we need a tablet we can add actual software to. We need a device we can use photoshop, autocad, hyperterminal, PDMworks. This wil be the device that moves the next company into the record books.

Once again sorry for the length of this, just my thoughts.

[CrackedBarry]

Who could complain about the missing features if it was marketed and sold in this way? All the while, work on OS2 would be going on behind the scenes and Playbook 2 and QNX phones could be launched together.

Hindsight is great.

True. After the Playbook fiasco, I wonder if they'll still go ahead with the Blackberry TV thing they supposedly have been developing. Surely they gotta learn from their mistakes, no?

RIM's big problem, besides often misunderstanding consumers and where the market is going, seems to be that they do things backwards. Instead of making sure that there is a solid userbase using a QNX phone before releasing a tablet, they release the tablet first, and are left scratching their heads wondering why it didn't sell.

It'll be more of the same, if they launch the Blackberry TV without having an ecosystem in place for it first.

I mean, there's a reason why Apple didn't release the Apple TV before the iPhone had a solid userbase, and why they're still treating it "as a hobby". And there's a reason why Google delayed the real introduction of Google TV, while they get more Android tablets out there, and get content deals in place.

[CrackedBarry]

This lack of support from developers is due to a numbers game. Their are how many companies making Android devices compared to BBos. Now, I know someone will say "Apple only makes their OS!", APPLE HAS MAJORITY MARKET SHARE! These numbers point to Apple having 45% market, Android having 40%, leaving rim with like 15%. Now these numbers are NOT FACT, just saying as a estimate, naturally more developers are going to flock to these devices and cater to them.

All very good points, but there is A LOT a company can do to attract developers. Just look at Microsoft and WP7. They have a marketshare much smaller than RIMs, but in less then a year, they went from like 0 apps to 25.000 apps in their store. And not only are all of the big must-have apps there. Most of those 25.000 are high quality apps that would put most of the stuff released for the Playbook to shame.

We dont need another app tablet, we need a tablet we can add actual software to. We need a device we can use photoshop, autocad, hyperterminal, PDMworks. This wil be the device that moves the next company into the record books.

So you're putting your money on Windows 8 being a success, I presume?
In the past, it has never worked, when they tried putting Windows on a tablet. I think they really might have learned from their mistakes, though...

[sportline]

its not a niche player, with less than 700,000 sold after 6 month, it's more or less only around 1% of worldwide bb user.it should have capture at least 10% of the captive market/bb user - at least 5 million unit per year.

[ubizmo]

It seems to me that OS 2.0 is RIM's last chance to generate sales and profit on the PB. I wouldn't expect to see "firesale" level discounting before OS 2.0 has had a chance to test the market. As has been pointed out repeatedly, the timing of the release of OS 2.0 isn't advantageous, given the furor that will be generated by the new Apple toys. BUT, if the Android capability is in there, and it works well, that could be enough to turn things around for the PB, in my opinion.

Despite the notion that apps are unnecessary, or less necessary, when you have a robust browser, people want what they want, and they want apps. Apps have become an expectation and it's a bad marketing strategy to try to talk people out of their expectations. A better strategy is to meet or exceed their expectations. In this, the PB has failed so far, since many (myself included) expected that the BlackBerry PB would offer all that BlackBerry smartphones offer, and then some. But in some important respects, the PB offers less. That, in a nutshell, has been the problem. All of the debates here on CB about the necessity of apps and native email don't budge the expectations of people who might buy one of these.

I remember when the iPad was first released, many people said "It's just an overgrown iPhone." That comment was meant to be a criticism but what we saw was people liked that.

People like apps. If Android on PB works as we hope, then they'll have an abundance of apps. They expect email with notifications, etc. Satisfy these expectations and exceed them with the quality of the hardware, and the PB has a future. There is no reason to d!ck around with 3G or 4G editions before the PB as it is has shown that it can succeed. The definition of "success" isn't beating the iPad; it's turning a reasonable profit. It doesn't make any sense, to me anyway, to throw that away by cutting the price--not until it is certain that the product has no future. But that isn't certain. If OS 2.0 comes and has no significant impact on sales, then it will be certain. That hasn't happened yet.

[shootsscores]

The hardware and OS are robust enough that there is no need for a PB2 for a while yet. The OS itself is good for the next 10 years.

[lawguyman]

True. After the Playbook fiasco, I wonder if they'll still go ahead with the Blackberry TV thing they supposedly have been developing. Surely they gotta learn from their mistakes, no?

RIM's big problem, besides often misunderstanding consumers and where the market is going, seems to be that they do things backwards. Instead of making sure that there is a solid userbase using a QNX phone before releasing a tablet, they release the tablet first, and are left scratching their heads wondering why it didn't sell.

It'll be more of the same, if they launch the Blackberry TV without having an ecosystem in place for it first.

I mean, there's a reason why Apple didn't release the Apple TV before the iPhone had a solid userbase, and why they're still treating it "as a hobby". And there's a reason why Google delayed the real introduction of Google TV, while they get more Android tablets out there, and get content deals in place.

Exactly,

RIM should have said "Our customers are demanding something they can use with their BB phones that will give them a bigger screen on which to read and reply to emails and to do a little web browsing. The Playbook is the perfect complement our BB phones." Period. End of Story.

Then, the story with PB2 should be "Our customers liked the Playbook's email and web experience so much that they have been asking us for more. Today, with Playbook 2, we give everyone the option to use Blackberry's enterprise-class email without a dedicated Blackberry phone. We also are happy to announce that Playbook owners will have access to over 100,000 Android applications."

I think this story would have gone over much better.

[bb-bandit]

So... Apparently RIM has warehouses full of Playbooks they can't sell and are slowing down production. There should be a software update within the next month or two, but there are hardly any news about the 4G Playbook that supposedly should be on the way, to replace the 3G Playbook that the carriers dropped.

But what's next in the Playbooks future? Firesale? Cancellation? New models? What do you think?

I think, that based on the very poor sales of the PB, we'll see a firesale (the early stages of which we're already seeing) and depending on the response for the initial 100$ off offers, there'll be Playbooks 2-300 cheaper than the current pricing between now and christmas.

Now if the response to that sale is really a gamechanger (And I doubt it will be for various reasons. Not just because of the upcoming iPhone5/iPad3, but also because all of the Android tablets will be on sale as they try to clear the inventory before introducing new models for Christmas) than it might mean that the Playbook gets a second chance, but the more likely result will be that the Playbook will get quietly dropped.

(Not officially cancelled. There won't be a big announcement from RIM. Instead, you'll probably still be able to order it online from RIM, but it'll disappear from stores, and without a successor in the works, the practical result will be cancellation.)

Why?

First of all, apparently there's no Playbook2. All other tablets will have their next generation models out early next year, but we don't hear about anything of the sort from RIM. That doesn't mean they're not planning for one or prototyping it, but IF they were, there would be bound to be leaks and rumours like we hear from all other manufacturers. And so far there hasn't been any. Again: That doesn't make a Playbook2 an impossibility. It just makes it very unlikely.

Secondly, RIM has taken a major financial hit on the Playbook. They were planning to sell 5 million, but so far haven't even shipped a million? OUCH!
RIM can probably sell the rest of them for around 300$ but that won't make it profitable, it'll only make the loss somewhat smaller.
The problem with that is, that if RIM chooses to go the way of the firesale in order to get more PBs out there, and to minimize their loss, they'll also have to either cancel their future tablet plans or change them in a significant way. It's pretty darn hard to sell something at 500$ if you were selling it at half that price a few months earlier.

Thirdly, QNX. RIM (hopefully) knows that their future as an independant player in the industry depends on a QNX phone being a success. That means they can't afford to mess around, and don't want to risk splitting up their QNX team between a phone and a tablet.
Their original plan was probably to make the Playbook a success this year, devote all of 2012 to make a line of QNX phones, along with releasing a 10 inch Playbook and cell radio enabled Playbooks, and then wait till 2013 to release a Playbook 2.

The way things have gone, however, means that there is very little interest in the Playbook from the carriers, and RIM needs to focus on their QNX phones. That means no new Playbooks next year, and since development on a Playbook2 needs to start next year in order to be ready for 2013, no Playbook2 at all.

Opinions?

RIM's cash position has seriously deteriorated, their Brand has taken a huge hit for putting out under spec'd handsets and unfinished products like the Storm 2 and PB, RIM's stock price has been hammered and lastly we are on the cusp of a double dip recession. The PB is dead. RIM will need to retrench and protect itself during the downturn.

[ScoobsDM]

So you're putting your money on Windows 8 being a success, I presume?
In the past, it has never worked, when they tried putting Windows on a tablet. I think they really might have learned from their mistakes, though...

I wouldn't say I'm betting on that, but a solid Unix platformed device that runs windows app. Sony is working a new tablet not using the Android Os but their PS Os. One that is can have software, movies, and music put on it through the PS3. While I don't this will be the "Next" big tablet i think it's a step forward in getting away from app the app based OS. Even the Windows tablet OS is still an app based OS that hinders the true business professional.

I believe the tablet era is just beginning! Think back to the days of 5 1/4" floppies that held entire programs for PCs. Who would have thought computers doing what they do now. Bill gates even said 256k memory is enough for user. WOW, look how times have changed. Look at what laptops once were compared to now. Tablets will evolve into a the next computer, it will take time.

Now, to turn this back to RIM, they need to be the company that makes the "NEXT" thing. They have the chance and the concept, they just need to take charge and not follow. They need to actively seek out developers and companies to help promote them. They need to come forward say "Yes, we flopped, but we can make it right!" They have all the pieces of the puzzle to take majority market share, they have to piece them together in properly in order to do it. Each and everyone of us here in this forum stay here for reason, we love our Blackberries! We support them in their decisions and their engineering developments. RIM and Blackberry have devices that are second to none, but they don't push on to the world. the sit back a passively try to sell their devices. In today's market if you don't force yourself onto it you'll never make it, RIM needs to see that.

[NickA]

I don't think we'll ever see another fire sale like the TouchPad had, and with the rumored firing of the CEO, and talk about getting back into hardware, it will be interesting to see what happens there.

But bottom line (IMO) is it all comes down to pricing. Unless the consumer is buying an iPad, they don't want to pay $499.00 for an item they probably can do without. It's unfortunate that Apple paved the way for that price, but it doesn't mean everyone has to follow. I think $399.00 for a 16 GB device is a good starting price point.

It's not that brand name that's stamped on the device, it's the price on the tag.

[sportline]

i don't think qnx swipes and gestures will do any good on a phone's small screen (3-4 inches only). see what happened to webos. it looks nice but not selling - and it will never be practical to rely on gestures only - a button or few buttons will help.
qnx phone will be something like a 9900, running webos.

[Darlaten]

It's not that brand name that's stamped on the device, it's the price on the tag.

Well according to Bart Simpsons (see youtube clip below), if you put a picture of a fruit on it, you can charge whatever price you want and people will buy it.

[trsbbs]

I am hopping RIM sticks with the PB. It has a use and customer base within the BB users world.

I think when the QNX phones are fully released that we will see even more improvements in the PB itself and with its ability to work with the BB phones.

Wireless (not the wifi version) is a must have for non-BB phone users, along with the promised items that were missing at launch (email etc). Until then the general public, as a whole, has no use for it.

The question isn't the PB or the phones themselves. The questions are:

1. Will top management continue to do a bad job on marketing, roll-outs, responding quickly to market changes/customer needs, be forward thinking and addressing customer/App Devs wants/needs.

2. Will RIM have enough income and/or reserve cash to get through the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2011 until the QNX phones are fully rolled out.

3. Will the world economy continue its self destruction in a way that severely affects RIM.

4. Will the stock holders hold on or make stocks available for a hostile take over.

5. RIM needs to stop diluting their product across so many different phones. (too difficult for Devs to code for and it confuses the customers) RIM is getting its backside kicked by a single phone. the IPhone.

6. RIM needs to improve its carrier relationships and no more exclusive phones for single carriers.

RIM has been shaking things up in the lower and mid-level management areas but has yet
to shake things up at the top. This is where many of the mistakes RIM has made over the past four years have originated from or been allowed to happen. We do not know if the many departures of mid and top level leaders was/is being caused by top management ridding RIM of dead weight and poor performers or if these folks are leaving due to RIMs top management being incompetent.

The PB has a place in the world. It might be a niche item (despite what other may say here) as RIM products as a whole are becoming just that. No longer a major player for the foreseeable future.

It will take years for RIM to rebuild their lost customer base and to regain the customers/stock holders trust that they will not repeat the mistakes that have gotten RIM in the position they are in now.

Tim

[Superfly_FR]

The hardware and OS are robust enough that there is no need for a PB2 for a while yet. The OS itself is good for the next 10 years.

Well, I liked because it is more or less what I thought while reading numerous comments. PB is not intended to be changed every year; instead, it is supposed to be a professional instrument that will go over amortization for companies large fleet (i.e 3-4 years here in France).
10 years in infinity in computers time scale ;-)

[kingbernie06511]

geez, I have a S2 and a PB, and although my S2 was sentenced to death 2-3 months after buying it, I never though things would look so bleak for my PB so quickly, considering its running the future of RIM as OS.

should I feel cheated by RIM?

I bought the PB for what it was, I love the unique bridge function. But lets face it if not enough people buy it to sustain the os/app/hardware ecosystem, then everything will be lost.

How do you expect developers and case/hardware manufacturors to invest on PB/BB if its not worth the risk?

[pkcable]

Well according to Bart Simpsons (see youtube clip below), if you put a picture of a fruit on it, you can charge whatever price you want and people will buy it.

I thought it might be cooler to embed the video instead.

[ubizmo]

How do you expect developers and case/hardware manufacturors to invest on PB/BB if its not worth the risk?

This is why Android is the make-or-break element of OS 2.0. At the moment, the PB is too risky a platform for many developers to throw money into developing for it. With Android, if it works as expected, it will be a relatively trivial effort to bring apps already developed to the PB. If that boosts sales and the PB reaches some kind of stability in the marketplace, developers of new apps will be more interested in it.

[ScoobsDM]

I agree with trsbbs on the fact that RIM needs to stop making some phones only availble to one carrier! Why you release the phone you think will pull out of your down spiral to the carrier that has your largest competition! instead of releasing 5new phones at time for 4 different carriers focus on producing 1-2 SOLID devices for all carriers. All rim needs is one solid touch device (storm) and hybrid device (9900) across all carriers. **** to me they could just have the 9900 across all carriers. This would cut down production cost, design cost, and simplify the whole process.

For the Playbook however they should have maybe a 16g and either the 32 or the 64, but not both or maybe just the 32 and 64. Why make 3 different version if you cant afford and that would test the waters of the market your trying to get into. It's not a smart business decision to just dive into the deep end before you know if you can swim or not.

[lawguyman]

I agree with trsbbs on the fact that RIM needs to stop making some phones only availble to one carrier! Why you release the phone you think will pull out of your down spiral to the carrier that has your largest competition! instead of releasing 5new phones at time for 4 different carriers focus on producing 1-2 SOLID devices for all carriers. All rim needs is one solid touch device (storm) and hybrid device (9900) across all carriers. **** to me they could just have the 9900 across all carriers. This would cut down production cost, design cost, and simplify the whole process.

I agree. RIM has to focus on making a smaller number of phones but make them LUSTWORTHY.

How many people want to trade in their curve for a curve that looks almost identical but with slightly better specs?

Lazaridis is almost completely blind to this. He often says "BBs stay out there a long time." That's a terrible thing! People should want to buy a new one next year not hold on to one as long as possible.

[dkingsf]

There won't be a Playbook2 per se. OS2 for PB is going to be the PB2. If it has USB OTG then there won't be a need to update the hardware with SD readers or ?

The hardware is good but the OS and software is not ready for prime time (enterprise).

But it's looking quite dismal.

[lawguyman]

But what about backward compatibility to the OS 6/7 apps.

It's coming this summer.

Oh wait . . .

It was said to be coming, who knows when.

[hackerguy]

I believe that QNX is the real future of RIM. They know they can't compete effectively with Apple in many areas. They have, in QNX, something that none of the other phone companies have. It is already well established as an OS in automobile computer systems. There is huge potential growth in the area of integrating cell phone, GPS navigation and just general tablet type functions with automobiles. It is an area that is just starting to grow. RIM is well positioned to be a major part of that growth. I look at the Playbook as a test bed for QNX. They are learning what works and what doesn't. If they are smart, and I believe they are, they will capitalize on all this. I am not worried about the demise of the Playbook. It is here to stay and continue to develop and just get better and better.