1. .m.e.'s Avatar
    So this is up on both BGR and Engadget right now. They seem pretty sure about the projections they give for tablet market share over the next 5 years, giving rather specific data.

    Gartner: Apple will dominate tablet space for years, Android won't drink its milkshake until after 2015 -- Engadget

    Apple iPad to dominate tablet market through 2015, Gartner says | BGR

    I have to say that I am shocked at how low the QNX projections are. I don't put a lot of stock in this educated guess, but what do you all think? Can the playbook command a better market share than this? I sure hope so !!
    Eumaeus likes this.
    04-11-11 12:24 PM
  2. Mercury's Avatar
    there are too many iphony fans out there, and Android can only get better as its open sourced.

    I am not surprised by the data. I personally dont care either, I', sticking with my fellow Canadian company till the day that either I or RIM dies
    04-11-11 12:30 PM
  3. .m.e.'s Avatar
    I agree. I just think that the more users that are on board with QNX will influence how many developers are on board with QNX.
    04-11-11 12:34 PM
  4. Mercury's Avatar
    I agree. I just think that the more users that are on board with QNX will influence how many developers are on board with QNX.
    i agree with that, because thats how apple did it. Because they have itunes, and way too many useless apps, it garners lots of users and in turn more developers push out the odd decent app. Qnx has to get established outside of the corporate world (cars/planes) and get into consumer hands and people may see the benifits of QNX
    04-11-11 12:38 PM
  5. Rob Robertson's Avatar
    This kind of analysis is just silly. How can you possibly predict what will happen in 2015? The mobile landscape changes every quarter. All it takes is one new product to totally flip the market on it's head. The iPad is killing netbooks, who would have thought that in 2010 when netbooks were all the rage?

    Long term predictions in this market just seem pointless.
    Last edited by Rob Robertson; 04-11-11 at 01:04 PM.
    Intosh, Machzy and tumer like this.
    04-11-11 01:02 PM
  6. KC1988's Avatar
    I think these a pretty good numbers for the playbook. Selling 3.8 million in 8 months left in 2011 sounds pretty good.
    04-11-11 01:10 PM
  7. thehairlesscat's Avatar
    If I were to guess, I would say that RIM will sell quite a few of these Playbooks to corporations and that will gradually increase the sales to the consumer market as well. As a small business owner, (5 employees), I can tell you that without having touched the Playbook, I can see it being very useful for me and possibly one or two others of my employees to have one. Whereas, I have played with the iPad and can't see anyway to even make it work for me. Why? We are a parts distributor that runs it's business on a website that uses Flash. I'll bet I'm not the only one out there.

    While I think the Playbook will be more successful than this article predicts, I don't think the market for tablets for consumers will grow as quickly as they seem to assume. Of course, I'm not an expert, but I would think the total numbers for the more consumer oriented devices will level off a bit quicker than the more business platform style tablets.

    My 2 cents.
    04-11-11 01:12 PM
  8. Intosh's Avatar
    This kind of predictions is worthless, except for making catchy headlines.
    Last edited by Intosh; 04-11-11 at 01:21 PM.
    04-11-11 01:14 PM
  9. .m.e.'s Avatar
    This kind of analysis is just silly. How can you possibly predict what will happen in 2015? The mobile landscape changes every quarter. All it takes is one new product to totally flip the market on it's head. The iPad is killing netbooks, who would have thought that in 2010 when netbooks were all the rage?

    Long term predictions in this market just seem pointless.
    I agree, I dont know what they can base this all on when we have no idea what the Playbook2 will look like vs the iPad3 vs anything else that will come out before 2015.

    I assume that this is more than just a guess though, and actually based on something. Do I believe it to be written in stone though? Obviously not.
    04-11-11 01:18 PM
  10. Smiley88's Avatar
    If all those boneheads "think" they can predict this then why can't they predict when the next "big" earthquake is??

    Those analysts are as good as me predicting the weather.
    04-11-11 01:21 PM
  11. Sonic77's Avatar
    Only numbers that are possible are Apples.

    Tablets are a flop for everyone else so far.
    04-11-11 01:22 PM
  12. NO_CARRIER's Avatar
    As always, take as a grain of salt.

    5 years ago was 2006. Before Android existed. Before iPhone was released. The big Smartphone players were the Nokia N95, BB Bold, and Palm Treo 650.

    Unless they have a crystal ball, no one can tell what the next 5 years will bring in the tech industry. There's always room for new start-ups to come with something revolutionary and push the old timers aside. It happens all the time.
    04-11-11 02:53 PM
  13. anon(728548)'s Avatar
    So this is up on both BGR and Engadget right now. They seem pretty sure about the projections they give for tablet market share over the next 5 years, giving rather specific data.

    Gartner: Apple will dominate tablet space for years, Android won't drink its milkshake until after 2015 -- Engadget

    Apple iPad to dominate tablet market through 2015, Gartner says | BGR

    I have to say that I am shocked at how low the QNX projections are. I don't put a lot of stock in this educated guess, but what do you all think? Can the playbook command a better market share than this? I sure hope so !!
    Well just think that QNX is only on one tablet. Android is on dozens of tablets. And then Apple has already sold a ton of tablets to already have alot out there
    04-11-11 03:00 PM
  14. .m.e.'s Avatar
    When I posted thisI was thinking more in terms of QNX and less about Ipad and android. It was just interesting to see how little market share an unbiased company attributes to QNX vs the others.

    I guess I am just more curious about why QNX would be maxing out at 10% markety share, and if you all objectively believe the Playbook will surpass these projections.

    .. I guess its just a useless speculation thread .... sorry
    04-11-11 03:27 PM
  15. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    When I posted thisI was thinking more in terms of QNX and less about Ipad and android. It was just interesting to see how little market share an unbiased company attributes to QNX vs the others.

    I guess I am just more curious about why QNX would be maxing out at 10% markety share, and if you all objectively believe the Playbook will surpass these projections.

    .. I guess its just a useless speculation thread .... sorry
    Your right! It is useless to speculate on anything past 2012....
    04-11-11 03:31 PM
  16. snuci's Avatar
    04-11-11 03:37 PM
  17. pkcable's Avatar
    Apple smapple! I'm getting a PlayBook and that is all that matters to me!
    kritikal and ericlc2 like this.
    04-11-11 03:40 PM
  18. peter9477's Avatar
    Among other things, you can count on the idiots behind such projections forgetting to consider things like 9.5" PlayBooks (or whatever size they do next).

    Take the current state of the union and project it forward 5 years... easy enough to do. Hard to keep the world static enough that your prediction is close to accurate by the end though...
    04-11-11 03:55 PM
  19. .m.e.'s Avatar
    I guess they are not to be trusted:

    In December 2006, Gartner made the prediction that blogging activity would reach a peak during 2007, and that Windows Vista would be the last major release of the operating system.
    04-11-11 04:08 PM
  20. drethos's Avatar
    The ipad won't dominate the market place in 2015 because the dominate countries in the world will nuke each other in 2012 on my birthday (guess). The remaining human beings will have to fight in a lawless world were fuel of any sort is worth more than gold...... damn were half way there.

    In all seriousness the apple will become dated at some point and people will realize that instead of buying mindlessly from a big controlling company that peddles the same junk, just with a new badge. Instead they will buy from a under dog and break the grip of control that is on them.[jk] I think someone made a commercial about that a long time ago before i was born. I think it was..... Microsoft? nahhh that can't be right, i don't know but they are big now and seems a bit hypocritical if you ask me[/jk]
    Last edited by drethos; 04-11-11 at 04:27 PM.
    04-11-11 04:09 PM
  21. frisco49ers's Avatar
    As always, take as a grain of salt.

    5 years ago was 2006. Before Android existed. Before iPhone was released. The big Smartphone players were the Nokia N95, BB Bold, and Palm Treo 650.

    Unless they have a crystal ball, no one can tell what the next 5 years will bring in the tech industry. There's always room for new start-ups to come with something revolutionary and push the old timers aside. It happens all the time.
    FYI. BB Bold didn't come out until 2008

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    04-11-11 04:27 PM
  22. 1812dave's Avatar
    liars figure, and figures lie. I put ZERO stock in their report. Besides which, even if it were true, I'm still not buying an overly-large Apple tablet.
    04-11-11 06:08 PM
  23. roger33-33's Avatar
    Hey...anyone can make a forecast..and these guys get paid for it! But...5 years is a long, long time to look ahead. Android certainly hasn't impressed on the XOOM. QNX, and perhaps even Windows, are being under-estimated in my opinion.
    04-11-11 06:38 PM
  24. plucky duck's Avatar
    The IOS user experience, although simple enough, is starting to be too comfortable and thus boring. When I throw down a few hundred dollars every year for an updated device yet I am faced with an almost identical user experience, and technology others have enjoyed from the competition almost a year ago that only now am I enjoying, I begin to question myself.

    I want something new and refreshing. The QNX at the moment will offer that WOW factor, along with a refreshingly smaller form factor, and yes, flash. Maybe in a year or two I will have become tired of QNX and jump ship to the next big thing.

    In terms of market share, Apple hasn't yet cornered the corporate market, that's where RIMM has an in house advantage. RIMM is only now tapping into a market where Apple hasn't ventured into.
    04-11-11 07:05 PM
  25. BlackStormRising's Avatar
    Even Apple Insider acknowledges that Gartner has a poor crystal ball citing their past (and current) Windows Mobile Phone predictions. However they got "this one" right.
    04-11-11 07:37 PM
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