[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

What Android's Impressive Growth Means for You

PC World's article talked about Android's huge growth, and that maybe VZW really doesn't even need the iPhone anymore....

Of course BB's were not even mentioned... (so is no news, really good news??)

Don't see the 9800 doing much to change RIM's image, with it being limited to only AT&T... even "IF" it were a truly ground breaking product, it will have a tough time competing with the iPhone.

And OS6 is not going to be much of a news maker for RIM in 2010... unless they are going to release these "refresh" phone sooner than November. As I understand it looks like only the 9800, 9650 and maybe the Clam-shell are capable of running OS6 right now or in the near future... Hard to "advertise" a new OS when it is only going to cause existing BB owners to have "buyer remorse" (that will really help those poll numbers next time).

[phone-a-holic]

no thanks, I am keeping my berry. It serves its purpose and I am happy with it.

[alexsupertramp]

That's cool, everybody has their preferences.

roo...sorry, i didn't even realize you were an iphone user. my iphone rants are part tongue in cheek, part jealously, and part real fear about the astronomical popluarity of one brand of technology.

[Roo Zilla]

roo...sorry, i didn't even realize you were an iphone user. my iphone rants are part tongue in cheek, part jealously, and part real fear about the astronomical popluarity of one brand of technology.

No need to apologize, it's all good. Part of forum participation is taking the jabs. LOL I got an iPhone feature BB users want no part of either, "the death spot!" A very unique iPhone exclusive feature.

[Bobcat665]

That's assuming that Meego doesn't make a huge impact on the market, but hey, who knows? It might be a 3D phone that walks the dog for you.

Another linux based smartphone OS? Pfft! Whatever. The market does not need another phone OS muddying the waters. Android is doing enough of that already...

[lnichols]

I predict that either in this version of iPhone/iPad/OS X client and server, or the next version, Apple will get FIPS 140-2 approval for the remote access portion of all the devices (they are currently working on it now). Once this happens the sales of iPhones will skyrocket because of the Federal Government sector, which right now is almost totally one sided to RIM, because they have FIPS 140-2 approval for between some devices and the specific BES revisions. Contracting to the Federal Government, I see people begging Apple to get this approval so they can use iPads and iPhones freely and have the "well its FIPS approved" get out of jail free card in the case of a security issue. Some are trying to get waivers to use them now. Combine that with the functionality that Apple is slowly incorporating into OS X server (remote access, iPhone policy management/tracking/remote wipe) and it doesn't take a genius to see that an iPhone talking to unlimited license $999 Mac Mini Snow Leopard Server, up to a $7000 unlimited license Xserve will save massive amounts of money. How much would an organization save in BES licensing alone? Also once the feds start using them, it will start trickling down to contractor side, then to the corporate side. Why do you think Exchange and MS Office solidified the market after the Federal Government adopted them? It is not cause they were the best at what they did.

[Jake Storm]

It's hard not to think about getting a different phone platform next for most phone users, with all the buzz about Android and iPhone lately. Maybe they will come back to Blackberry after trying whatever smartphone platform next though.

What I find interesting that even as new as the Android OS is, almost a third of all owners already want to switch to a different OS

Looks like Android is in trouble!

[Christi23]

I've been with BlackBerry almost seven years now and I can definitely see where they dropped the ball staying current.

When they started marketing their device to the 'everyday' consumer they should have known that they would have to complete in the 'glitz' market. Some of the argument I've seen is that 'well....it's a business phone meant to do more emailing, tasking...etc."

That changed when they marketed it to common consumers. While the normal consumer was happy to have a BB that worked for them, they expected it to be comparable (if not better because of the name) then the other smartphones in it's class on the market.

Sorrowfully, we can see that Samsung, Motorola, IPhone all outshine them in the glitz area. (I'm sorry the Browser on BB's are functional but in no way hold a candle to even some of the carrier phones...like MyTouch3G)

I don't think BB thought about market change when they marketed to everyday consumers. I think they saw the initial jump in sales they would receive since so many people wanted a BB because of the good things heard about it from the business arena.

Hopefully, they have a fresh team of people working to incorporate ideas to really take it to a whole new level. And hopefully, OS 6 will at least put on the same par as the other currently populer OS.

With all that being said...why do I want to rip my hair out and fall into a deep depression when I think about switching from BB?

[Rootbrian]

1. Forget apple, unless it's jailbroken (jailbreaking frees the device from apple's control)
2. Linux (Android/WebOS/Other Linuxes), it's free. It runs on almost everything capable of running an OS.

I'm sticking to blackberry as I enjoy it.

[shalea#IM]

Remember that RIM has a large portion of the Corporate scene. They may lose customers (not me) to iPhone and/or Android, but remain #1 w/the corporate communication arena.

[syb0rg]

If anyone is going to dethrone RIM, it will be Android, not apple

Android has already done it, with a 886% in growth last year.

[pzykotic]

I am very happy with my RIM device(s)

[catfish44]

lmao, I cannot in good faith actually post on this thread and stick up for the "survey" or any of the people who believe what they are typing and reading as being true based on that piece of garbage. How many people did they survey 20, wtf.

[khager]

Can we please find something new to talk about!?

[Exiled Bulldawg]

They don't list the Perameters of the Survey, so it is just the same bull that gets people to come and read your page, this is a hot topic right now, and Survey groups are going crazy for it,

When I look at the Charts looks like nielsen did about 2000 users, in their Survey, that's an acceptable sampling of the population don't you think?

your opinions are clearly reflected in a sampling of 40 people from your state, wouldn't you agree?

If the study is based on 2,000 current Blackberry users, drawn at random, it should be pretty representative of the whole population. About four hundred or so more users and it would probably have a confidence interval of 95%. With 2,000 it probably has a 90% CI. All commonly accepted theories concerning random populations. So, unless the Blackberry population isn't random, then it applies.

[_StephenBB81]

If the study is based on 2,000 current Blackberry users, drawn at random, it should be pretty representative of the whole population. About four hundred or so more users and it would probably have a confidence interval of 95%. With 2,000 it probably has a 90% CI. All commonly accepted theories concerning random populations. So, unless the Blackberry population isn't random, then it applies.

Study wasn't based on JUST Blackberry users, it was based on all smartphone users.

a 2000 sampling of smartphone users is hardly a fair sampling as it makes up less than .01% of all smartphone users in the US, of that, they simply asked what a user is using, and what their next smartphone purchase would be,
No further demographics are given, if the random sampling was heavy in the 18-25 demographic then the glitzy phones would be more attractive, if the Demo graphic was heavy in the 35-55 then BB would fair better.

2000 BB users with a even distribution across demographics, I would accept as being a more realistic representation of Blackberry loyalty, but the survey would not nearly get as many hits if they didn't include the loyalty numbers for other platforms.

[Bitter End]

I'm sure this has been said before, but it's just that BlackBerry is not as trendy as Droid or especially iPhone.

I imagine that teens and young adult make up a large portion of the cell phone market and most of those people follow trends.

[Exiled Bulldawg]

Study wasn't based on JUST Blackberry users, it was based on all smartphone users.

a 2000 sampling of smartphone users is hardly a fair sampling as it makes up less than .01% of all smartphone users in the US, of that, they simply asked what a user is using, and what their next smartphone purchase would be,
No further demographics are given, if the random sampling was heavy in the 18-25 demographic then the glitzy phones would be more attractive, if the Demo graphic was heavy in the 35-55 then BB would fair better.

2000 BB users with a even distribution across demographics, I would accept as being a more realistic representation of Blackberry loyalty, but the survey would not nearly get as many hits if they didn't include the loyalty numbers for other platforms.

I miss spoke when I quoted the study. The target population, as Neilson says is "likely Smart Phone Upgraders." Again, if they randomly selected 2,000 likely smart phone upgraders, their CI is still going to be about 90%. If they selected about 2,400 the CI goes up to 95%. After that point, the increase in CI goes down for each additionally selected member of the population (diminishing returns.) So, the most bang for the buck is 90-95% CI, which is why most studies are no more than 2,400.

In so far as the stratification goes, it doesn't really matter. The study isn't to find about Blackberry users alone, it was for all smart phones. While from your signature, I see you find statistics dubious, I believe well designed studies are representative of much larger populations without sampling significant segments of the populations.

What you are supposing is known as sampling error. Since multiple studies have produced similar results, I would tend to weight this study much more heavily.

I believe this because statistics do work. Hence six sigma, statistical auditing and a whole host of statistical samplings.

[mark_rivers19]

i don't really rely on surveys alone to persuade me on what to buy...
i still do my research and then buy the one that i need.
most people just follow the herd

[Roo Zilla]

Study wasn't based on JUST Blackberry users, it was based on all smartphone users.

Actually, the poll's breakdown was as follows:

BB = 1067
Android = 867
iPhone = 225

The highest level of confidence is with Blackberry users. The Nielsen Company is a pretty well respected consumer trends analysis company. They're most famous for their TV ratings. Large companies are willing to spend billions of dollars on marketing from their recommendations of consumer trends. I really wouldn't bet against their findings.

[_StephenBB81]

I miss spoke when I quoted the study. The target population, as Neilson says is "likely Smart Phone Upgraders." Again, if they randomly selected 2,000 likely smart phone upgraders, their CI is still going to be about 90%. If they selected about 2,400 the CI goes up to 95%. After that point, the CI goes down.

In so far as the stratification goes, it doesn't really matter. The study isn't to find about Blackberry users alone, it was for all smart phones. While from your signature, I see you find statistics dubious, I believe well designed studies are representative of much larger populations without sampling significant segments of the populations.

What you are supposing is known as sampling error. Since multiple studies have produced similar results, I would tend to weight this study much more heavily.

I am a little upset that I didn't grab a screen capture of the first time I went to Ni
I believe this because statistics do work. Hence six sigma, statistical auditing and a whole host of statistical samplings.

Very well said,

I had completely forgot about my signature being related to statistics, as you are correct I have often found them to be dubious as changing the perimeters can flip a statistic in favour of the people doing the review.

I thought the Nielson blogs title used to read more than 50% of blackberry users plan to defect, or something long those lines, now the title reads
Android Soars, but iPhone Still Most Desired as Smartphones Grab 25% of U.S. Mobile Market | Nielsen Wire

I do agree with with using statistics as tools, I just don't so much agree with what Statistic company's do as quazi media outlets, which is how I feel stories like this one are put to market as.

[Roo Zilla]

i don't really rely on surveys alone to persuade me on what to buy...
i still do my research and then buy the one that i need.
most people just follow the herd

As well as you should. The surveys matter much more to the sellers of the products. It gives them a better idea of what they're doing right and what they're doing wrong. If a broad survey says people are looking to buy a competitor's product, then you really have to look at what you may be doing wrong.

[_StephenBB81]

As well as you should. The surveys matter much more to the sellers of the products. It gives them a better idea of what they're doing right and what they're doing wrong. If a broad survey says people are looking to buy a competitor's product, then you really have to look at what you may be doing wrong.

I really do hope that the Sellers of the products do look at these, now where I don't necessarily agree with the numbers here, what this Stat should tell RIM it needs to step things up.

[Exiled Bulldawg]

Very well said,

I had completely forgot about my signature being related to statistics, as you are correct I have often found them to be dubious as changing the perimeters can flip a statistic in favour of the people doing the review.

I thought the Nielson blogs title used to read more than 50% of blackberry users plan to defect, or something long those lines, now the title reads
Android Soars, but iPhone Still Most Desired as Smartphones Grab 25% of U.S. Mobile Market | Nielsen Wire

I do agree with with using statistics as tools, I just don't so much agree with what Statistic company's do as quazi media outlets, which is how I feel stories like this one are put to market as.

As Mark Twain said, "Figures don't lie, but liars figure." However, in this case, there is enough anecdotal evidence that RIM is losing upgraders simply by looking at Crackberry. How many threads are there where people are griping about the POS browser? And then they scream Droid or iPhone and they are on their way.

Several studies definitely do portend a future decline for RIM, unless something changes.

But then again, Mark Twain had a point!

[_StephenBB81]

As Mark Twain said, "Figures don't lie, but liars figure." However, in this case, there is enough anecdotal evidence that RIM is losing upgraders simply by looking at Crackberry. How many threads are there where people are griping about the POS browser? And then they scream Droid or iPhone and they are on their way.

Several studies definitely do portend a future decline for RIM, unless something changes.

But then again, Mark Twain had a point!

I love Mark Twain!

I don't argue that RIM users are defecting, but as other reports show, currently the smartphone market is still less than 50% of the total mobile Market, and growing, so the fate RIM can't be as dismal as these numbers show, as RIM is growing in over all shipments.

They need to work on retention and not just new users.