[Corbu]

OT:
I hate to ask, Morgan, but if ever you feel like sharing your thoughts on HALO and PSDV, I would be curious to know what you think. No obligation, though. Thanks!

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

It's an important part of BlackBerry's business now. I'm sure there is a direct correlation between the handset sales and the value of BBRY stock. Not to mention that this is an all new development for BlackBerry and something that Chen will say plenty about. Corbu and others will be posting relevant information as it hits the wire ..... I'm sure.

Leaving out TCL would be like Apple leaving out software sales.

Not sure it's the same thing... what will BlackBerry sales be in relation to the majority of TCL's existing sales?

What will show up, is when Chen gives some results or guidance... that this is working out a revenue generator for BlackBerry. And that could happen even if TCL overall smartphone sales continue to fall like they are now - 34% down YoY isn't very pretty, but even now BlackBerry isn't going to sell enough to make a dent in their sale numbers.

[kadakn01]

Short interest as of Feb 15
48,550.640
As of Jan 31
48,763,344
So a decrease of about 200K shares

[Superfly_FR]

Amusing coincidence?

[Corbu]

[morganplus8]

OT:
I hate to ask, Morgan, but if ever you feel like sharing your thoughts on HALO and PSDV, I would be curious to know what you think. No obligation, though. Thanks!

Some OT here!


Hi Corbu!

Anytime my friend! HALO is doing very well post the election (Nov/2016 $ 8.50/shr to $ 14.00/high in 2017). The pharmaceutical sector is leading the general market now, and in particular, biotech. If you get a chance, listen to Carter Worth on CNBC's Fast Money last night for a sense of where this sector is going now. The short of his comments are that Healthcare is leading the way again and breaking out for a leadership role within the market.

With all major rallies, the money moves into large cap stocks first, they strike fair value, then the medium sized stocks go and finally small investments like HALO, and then all of our micro stocks tag along as the large cap sector matures. The same holds true for BBRY, it is tiny company in a ocean of large cap stocks so it will move farther down the cycle too.

I love HALO, own it, their spend rate is enormous for this year, it is far greater than some investors feel comfortable with, I don't mind. The only thing holding them back from $ 20.00/shr is their silence on what the FDA might be thinking about fast tracking of their drug programs versus compelling data. All we wanted to hear from them regarding their latest data was to state that they are approaching the FDA for a fast track to market to help patients who are dying of PC every day. We didn't get that statement and so the stock backed up.

As for PSDV, it is a micro cap stock, no one has heard of it, they aren't saying much right now, it takes 200,000 shares to move the stock up 15% - 20% as the stock is held tight right now. They are a play that I think will resolve in them getting taken out, I hold the same number of shares as before, haven't sold any and I'll wait for the buyout on this one.

I will say that with Trump, every day is a potentially bad day for the market. It has popped 3,000 points since he was elected so there are plenty of profits in bank stocks etc., right now. I like to have cash on hand to buy the dips at this point and that's why I'm glued to the screen. If BBRY drops below $ 6.95/shr soon, I'll purchase a large block of it, the same goes with SPHS etc. We have sold off all of the big movers in the Trump rally now, and that money will move into my favourites soon.

Best of luck, not much to give you as we aren't hearing much from these companies these days.

[Corbu]

Thank you, Morgan. Much appreciated!

[morganplus8]

Not sure it's the same thing... what will BlackBerry sales be in relation to the majority of TCL's existing sales?

What will show up, is when Chen gives some results or guidance... that this is working out a revenue generator for BlackBerry. And that could happen even if TCL overall smartphone sales continue to fall like they are now - 34% down YoY isn't very pretty, but even now BlackBerry isn't going to sell enough to make a dent in their sale numbers.

Not sure where you are going with all of this but I'll state that from a BlackBerry perspective, all things TCL are important. We talk about YoY as it pertains to BlackBerry, I don't care to know where TCL is in all of this. For BB, it has been a major problem to refer to QoQ or YoY numbers and now we are void of HW revenue so there's that gross revenue decline (a revenue based valuation) to deal with this year. And so, from my point of view, positive numbers from TCL, 90% margins on those numbers, and, Chen's ability to focus on software/service are what makes this investment worth watching again.

I'm hoping that Chen will breakout QNX, TCL and all other portions of the business so that we can follow along with the road map to recovery. A good start would be for him to talk about go forward expectations for BlackBerry in Fiscal 2018. I calculated that TCL and others could project $ .05/shr towards earnings in Fiscal 2018 (that's a big improvement over $ 20 MM losses per quarter) and I hope he talks about that too. I would like to see us continue to follow MOBY and MOBL as well on this thread.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Not sure where you are going with all of this but I'll state that from a BlackBerry perspective, all things TCL are important. We talk about YoY as it pertains to BlackBerry, I don't care to know where TCL is in all of this. For BB, it has been a major problem to refer to QoQ or YoY numbers and now we are void of HW revenue so there's that gross revenue decline (a revenue based valuation) to deal with this year. And so, from my point of view, positive numbers from TCL, 90% margins on those numbers, and, Chen's ability to focus on software/service are what makes this investment worth watching again.

I'm hoping that Chen will breakout QNX, TCL and all other portions of the business so that we can follow along with the road map to recovery. A good start would be for him to talk about go forward expectations for BlackBerry in Fiscal 2018. I calculated that TCL and others could project $ .05/shr towards earnings in Fiscal 2018 (that's a big improvement over $ 20 MM losses per quarter) and I hope he talks about that too. I would like to see us continue to follow MOBY and MOBL as well on this thread.

I agree that TCL may be important to BBRY... do hope that Chen or TCL give us some indications.
I agree that watching MOBL helps us see the value of one of BlackBerry's main revenue streams right now

Just don't see how watching TCL Communications Hong Kong stock would be of any benefit... it's unlikely they will start breaking out sales by brands, and it's unlikely that we would be able to notice an increase or even a decreas based on the number of units TCL sells currently and what even modest predictions for the K1 are.

[morganplus8]

I agree that TCL may be important to BBRY... do hope that Chen or TCL give us some indications.
I agree that watching MOBL helps us see the value of one of BlackBerry's main revenue streams right now

Just don't see how watching TCL Communications Hong Kong stock would be of any benefit... it's unlikely they will start breaking out sales by brands, and it's unlikely that we would be able to notice an increase or even a decreas based on the number of units TCL sells currently and what even modest predictions for the K1 are.

Did someone mention that we should watch TCL stock? I missed that. I have no interest in watching their overall mixture of product offering/earnings etc., just data that pertains to BlackBerry. I do want to closely follow anything and everything to do with BlackBerry phones of course, sales numbers, marketing efforts and so on. I would also like to stay on top of product offerings on said phones.

[MasterMoe]

Hey guys! Nice to see that there is still some activity in this thread. No one has mentioned anything about THLD in months. Is anyone still invested in it?

[Superfly_FR]

One of our first awards! @BBMobile @AndroidAuth #mwc17 #MWC2017 #blackberrymobile #keyone #winning pic.twitter.com/lGLczO9bzS

https://twitter.com/VirgStrickland/status/836607055268040707

[Superfly_FR]

I do want to closely follow anything and everything to do with BlackBerry phones of course, sales numbers, marketing efforts and so on. I would also like to stay on top of product offerings on said phones.

Finally, after 5 years +, I can correct ONE post of Morgan !!!
[...] TCL, aka BlackBerry Mobile phones [...]

[Corbu]

FWIW, purported first images of BB Merah Putih:

Props to Gabriel Radewa.

[slipstream89]

Sorry for this guy's not sure if this is posting right, I haven't checked the forums lately and especially off on my priv I can't find where to post something....

Anyhoo a bit ot here, acad just posted earnings with it meeting eps of -.65 but Rev was a staggering 12M! I believe last Q was 5.27M over 100% increase.....just curious if you still holding this Morgan? I sense a buyout soon for them....

Thanks in advance! I need to start visiting forums more often again

[Corbu]

https://www.cnet.com/news/more-black...lcatel-keyone/
BlackBerry returns with 3 possible new phones in 2017

The BlackBerry KeyOne may soon see some siblings.

TCL isn't wasting time building up its portfolio of phones using the BlackBerry name. The company plans to release as many as three phones this year, TCL Communications Nicolas Zibell said in an interview on Saturday.

The company is working on an all-touchscreen version, a spiritual successor to the DTEK 50 and DTEK 60 phones, which it also built for BlackBerry itself, according to a source familiar with the rollout plans. TCL will likely get rid of the DTEK branding, the source said.

[Superfly_FR]

Was about time !


[FaceBook] One of the pages you're following (QNX Software Systems) changed its name and is now "BlackBerry QNX"

[Superfly_FR]

https://www.cnet.com/news/more-black...lcatel-keyone/
BlackBerry returns with 3 possible new phones in 2017

http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...three-1101608/
Also note the interesting part about reviving PALM; seems that guys at TCL quite follow the "vintage electronic" trend I mentioned earlier ...

[_dimi_]

Not sure where you are going with all of this but I'll state that from a BlackBerry perspective, all things TCL are important. We talk about YoY as it pertains to BlackBerry, I don't care to know where TCL is in all of this. For BB, it has been a major problem to refer to QoQ or YoY numbers and now we are void of HW revenue so there's that gross revenue decline (a revenue based valuation) to deal with this year. And so, from my point of view, positive numbers from TCL, 90% margins on those numbers, and, Chen's ability to focus on software/service are what makes this investment worth watching again.

I'm hoping that Chen will breakout QNX, TCL and all other portions of the business so that we can follow along with the road map to recovery. A good start would be for him to talk about go forward expectations for BlackBerry in Fiscal 2018. I calculated that TCL and others could project $ .05/shr towards earnings in Fiscal 2018 (that's a big improvement over $ 20 MM losses per quarter) and I hope he talks about that too. I would like to see us continue to follow MOBY and MOBL as well on this thread.

Hi Morgan,


Hope you're doing well!

What's the sales volume and license fee per device that you're projecting for fiscal 2018?

I've been continually reading up on BlackBerry's financial information (Q3 2017) so I can hopefully gain a better understanding by the time their next earnings announcement takes place later this month. As you know, it's not just a complex turnaround for BlackBerry, but for investors getting familiar with the complexity of their (financial) situation and statements, and trying to come up with projections for the near future, is pretty much impossible.

If you could therefore give me (us) some insight on the following observations that I've made, that would be really helpful:

It seems we mostly talk about gross margins and how good BlackBerry keeps performing with regards to this metric. However, if we look at Software & Services in Q3 we're seeing 24% in net margins. Additionally, the company books additional expenses ('Corporate unallocated' : certain corporate expenses not allocated to segment operations) on a different line, accounting for 80 mio USD in Q3 alone (231 mio USD so far in FY2018). Now, I'm not sure how big of a portion of the 80 mio 'could not be directly allocated to Software & Services' but even if we only took half of that, their Software & Services would be at ~0% net margin.

I remember you compared Citrix to BlackBerry back in December, and mentioned that BlackBerry was performing much better with regards to S G & A. But I can't see how they are?

In the message where you discussed McCreath's forecast of 0.65 in EPS, back in December, you mentioned that the company's net margins on software currently were around 47%. Now, that number you derived from their Q2 financial statement. How exactly did you get to that number? Since I am seeing 29 mio USD operating income on revenue of 156 mio or a net margin of only 18,5%. Now, the 'corporate unallocated' expenses were 71 million USD for the quarter and I haven't taken this into account although we should be?

If you could help me understand this.. Thanks!!! :-)





Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

Sorry for this guy's not sure if this is posting right, I haven't checked the forums lately and especially off on my priv I can't find where to post something....

Anyhoo a bit ot here, acad just posted earnings with it meeting eps of -.65 but Rev was a staggering 12M! I believe last Q was 5.27M over 100% increase.....just curious if you still holding this Morgan? I sense a buyout soon for them....

Thanks in advance! I need to start visiting forums more often again

Hey slipstream89 !!

Nice to see you are still around! Not much happening with BlackBerry stock wise but the company is active and in the news. Are you trading it?

ACAD is a great company, those revenues are the start of something good and the EPS numbers would have beat as well if they didn't drop so much into developing their own sales force. I own a small amount of that stock, Pfizer should buy it ASAP, they need the portfolio badly. Great numbers and all that is missing is guidance.

Do tell us what you are up to even if it isn't trading BBRY much, we like to know what our original team of investors are up to.

[morganplus8]

Hi Morgan,


Hope you're doing well!

What's the sales volume and license fee per device that you're projecting for fiscal 2018?

I've been continually reading up on BlackBerry's financial information (Q3 2017) so I can hopefully gain a better understanding by the time their next earnings announcement takes place later this month. As you know, it's not just a complex turnaround for BlackBerry, but for investors getting familiar with the complexity of their (financial) situation and statements, and trying to come up with projections for the near future, is pretty much impossible.

If you could therefore give me (us) some insight on the following observations that I've made, that would be really helpful:

It seems we mostly talk about gross margins and how good BlackBerry keeps performing with regards to this metric. However, if we look at Software & Services in Q3 we're seeing 24% in net margins. Additionally, the company books additional expenses ('Corporate unallocated' : certain corporate expenses not allocated to segment operations) on a different line, accounting for 80 mio USD in Q3 alone (231 mio USD so far in FY2018). Now, I'm not sure how big of a portion of the 80 mio 'could not be directly allocated to Software & Services' but even if we only took half of that, their Software & Services would be at ~0% net margin.

I remember you compared Citrix to BlackBerry back in December, and mentioned that BlackBerry was performing much better with regards to S G & A. But I can't see how they are?

In the message where you discussed McCreath's forecast of 0.65 in EPS, back in December, you mentioned that the company's net margins on software currently were around 47%. Now, that number you derived from their Q2 financial statement. How exactly did you get to that number? Since I am seeing 29 mio USD operating income on revenue of 156 mio or a net margin of only 18,5%. Now, the 'corporate unallocated' expenses were 71 million USD for the quarter and I haven't taken this into account although we should be?

If you could help me understand this.. Thanks!!! :-)





Posted via CB10

I'll have to chip away at this as you have so many questions at one time.

I used the analyst statements regarding high/low targets for per unit revenue on future handset sales from BLACKBERRY MOBILE (Superfly!) and that range was $ 4.00 - $ 15.00 and thoughts of a per unit range were around 3 MM - to as much as 10 MM. I used $ 10.00/unit times 3MM units sold as my numbers for next year. I think they are really conservative but they give you a $ .05/shr EPS to the bottom line and you can run percentages on top of that if you think they can do more or less in sales. While that doesn't sound like much, it buries losses going forward so the financials look way better without HW.

Unallocated Expenses, that's a big number and something that you would like to see as one time or non-recurring, they factor in legal, currency and undistributed expenses from various parts of the world. A great deal of these numbers will disappear once they have fully rationalized the business. I know one of the favourite past-times of analysts is to breakout the Good Tech. purchase portion of the business to see what BlackBerry brought to the bottom line. I don't think it is a simple task to come up with a meaningful number there but it is safe to say that those margins aren't as exciting as the 30% that the company predicted and met this past year.

McCreath tried to jam as much data into his argument that BlackBerry held some great financials/growth now that it decided to dump HW. Chen stated that their gross margins were 47% for that quarter and McCreath ran with Chen's number on top of talking just about Software and Services so he actually misquoted Chen who was referring to overall margins including various other sectors. I think I mentioned that confusion on McCreath's part back in December. A gross margin of 47% is huge when you know they are dragging along HW and QNX. etc..

I can see that you need to see more detail in their accounting going forward, you are not alone, it would be nice to see what's left of the company broken out so that we can follow along. A lot rides on Chen's forecast for next year in terms of revenues and EPS, if he can breakout each sector and assign costs proportionately to the same, you wouldn't have to spend so much time trying to do it yourself.

I hope I explained the 47% margin portion, that came from Chen himself on earning release day. McCreath came up with a $ .65/shr benefit to BB and I worked out a $ .67/shr benefit so we were both close in that respect. As for Citrix, I'll have to go back and read what I said about that, I can't remember how I evaluated that comparison. You could post it and talk about it directly if you wish too.

Having said all of this, I'll have a look at your specific questions and see if I can research some of the data and try to resolve them for you.

[morganplus8]

Hi Morgan,


I remember you compared Citrix to BlackBerry back in December, and mentioned that BlackBerry was performing much better with regards to S G & A. But I can't see how they are?


If you could help me understand this.. Thanks!!! :-)

Posted via CB10

"You gave us a great example of where all of this could go here. Citrix has revenue growth of only 4%, their gross margins are like BB, 81%, but their S G & A comes in at 46% which is huge to manage. The end result is a very mature 10% operating line. Despite the slow growth, they carry a huge "software" P/E!"

I tracked down the Citrix comment and in that case I was referring to how well Citrix converts S, G and A to the bottom line. This is where BlackBerry is far more dynamic in their ability to hold superior margins, less costs. The growth just isn't there for Citrix and it is quite the job to turn a profit on the basis of their business model. BlackBerry can retain far more revenue as a software licensing model less HW. We were talking about P/E ratios and Citrix carries a 30/1 ratio with income and BlackBerry will have little trouble carrying that same ratio in its sector with a real EPS to back it up. Couple that with superior growth and I can see BBRY doing very well down the road. I think this is what Prem Watsa sees going forward too. It's just too early to pull a part the balance sheet and income statement for BB at this stage, we need a couple of more quarters to get to where the company needs to be to grow the business, AND, analyse it properly. I can tell you Chen has his hands full in the next Q/Year End when it comes time to talk about forecasts for the following year.

[anon(757282)]

And BBRY is back below $7. Rest of the stock market is breaking records. So that ain't the cause.

[world traveler and former ceo]

And BBRY is back below $7. Rest of the stock market is breaking records. So that ain't the cause.

It's still a toxic stock until such time as performance is shown on both revs and EPS and future projections show sustained growth.... or they get acquired, sadly...

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

If you are a buyer of the stock, it's at the bottom end of its Bollinger Bands having been dumped by those who rush for the movers. I have an order for 65,000 at $ 6.88/shr and I would be happy to have it filled right now seeing as how it is such a bad investment. Please fill my order so I can place another one for these terrible shares.