[the_sleuth]

Eye on Equities
RIM�s new Blackberry off to a promising start: UBS


Darcy Keith | Columnist profile | E-mail
Globe and Mail Update
Published Friday, Aug. 19, 2011 1:06PM EDT
Last updated Friday, Aug. 19, 2011 3:56PM EDT

It�s not often these days that one comes upon an analyst report with something positive to say about Research In Motion Ltd. (RIMM-Q 26.69). But UBS�s Phillip Huang did just that today - albeit it�s pretty lukewarm praise.

UBS analysts visited 17 stores in Canada following the recent launch of RIM�s Blackberry 7.0 phones and found them to be selling reasonably well. �While certainly not comparable to the iPhone launch, and still lagging Androids, sales appeared decent with several reps eager to point us to the new Blackberries,� Mr. Huang wrote. The 99xx Bold phones, in particular, appear to be selling fairly well, he said
Given that the 7.0 products came to market a couple weeks earlier than expected, this could add up to RIM sales coming in modestly stronger than anticipated for August, Mr. Huang suggests.

Of course, Canada is only a small market for RIM, accounting for about 8 per cent of global sales. But these early signals could hint at a reasonably successful launch in larger global markets.

Mr. Huang is still cautious about RIM�s long-term future, expecting a tough transition ahead of its move to the new QNX core operating system in 2012. �While RIM�s new products close the gap with competitors on feeds and speeds, RIM�s ecosystem and apps continue to lag. Further, its main pillars of growth � enterprise and international - are under attack and with 80 per cent plus of its net adds being non-enterprise, RIM is fighting an uphill battle for consumer mind share� versus competitors.

As for speculation that RIM could be a takeover candidate in the wake of Google�s planned acquisition of Motorola announced earlier this week, Mr. Huang is doubtful. �All indications are that RIM intends to go it alone for now and there�s little evidence management would even contemplate an alternative unless at a significant premium,� he said, pointing out such an acquisition would have to be worth �the hefty sum� of at least $15-billion, net of cash.

RIM’s new Blackberry off to a promising start: UBS - The Globe and Mail

[lnichols]

The US rollout is going slowly. Sprint will be selling in a couple hours, Verizon is selling the 9930 but don't think they have them in stores. T-Mobile wont be out till end of month and AT&T who knows. I think the market perception will start turning around soon and people realize that RIM doesn't need to have $70 billion in cash or 550,000 activations per day to be a very successful company.

[pattste]

I'm always amazed that so called industry analysts don't have a better way of gauging sales than by visiting a few stores (probably all in the same vicinity) and asking the reps. I mean, that's how I do it, but I don't refer to myself as an analyst.

[MarketRide]

I'm always amazed that so called industry analysts don't have a better way of gauging sales than by visiting a few stores (probably all in the same vicinity) and asking the reps. I mean, that's how I do it, but I don't refer to myself as an analyst.

and you probably know more than 80% of the analysts

[Economist101]

I'm always amazed that so called industry analysts don't have a better way of gauging sales than by visiting a few stores (probably all in the same vicinity) and asking the reps. I mean, that's how I do it, but I don't refer to myself as an analyst.

I'm curious. . .how would you do it? RIM only releases devices "shipped" during its earnings calls, but those figures tell us little about sell through. Analysts could get this information from the corporate offices of the carriers if the carriers were willing to share it, but we all know they're not. I understand that you aren't necessarily satisfied by this particular method, but I'm not sure there's a better way to reach a conclusion short of RIM or its partners providing the kind of data they normally only provide at specific quarterly intervals.