- 11-24-2012, 09:30 PM #104
- 11-24-2012, 09:54 PM #106
Re: 1 year Prediction
What isn't reality though is coming on here and making absurd claims without and factual information. Claiming companies will fall or rise regardless of who they are (I have no favorites). Just because you invested mmoney in RIM doesnt give you the right to make insane claims about competition.
- 11-24-2012, 09:58 PM #107
- 11-24-2012, 10:02 PM #108
- 11-24-2012, 10:06 PM #109
- 11-24-2012, 10:18 PM #112
I guess my prediction will have to be the bolder option market share of sales, not of users numbers since sales numbers is more quantifiable. But that does mean we won't be counting previous sales as a benefit to either company. Actually, I'll just say BBs will be beating iPhone in either just so I'm covering my bases. So lets check back in a year and see how I did.
And if I'm wrong I'll let you all know what will happen to me......wait for it................................................ .................nothing. Although I may shrug my shoulders and do a short 'hmm' and think 'guess i was wrong'.
I honestly do see it as possible, someone mentioned they don't know what I'm basing it on, but please convince me or give me good reasons against it.
RIM 1 year from 11/24/12 to have greater Smartphone Marketshare than iPhone!!!!
- 11-24-2012, 11:18 PM #115
Re: 1 year Prediction
- 11-25-2012, 12:08 AM #116
There is no doubt Samsung is Apple's biggest competitor at the moment. It's more than likely without them, Apple would have a much larger market share in the smartphone market. That's not reality though. The major question is as you stated, will they continue to eat away at Apple's market share. It's more than likely that they, along with many other Android makers, will do exactly that. The reason is very simple. Price. Android runs the gamut from $50 to $700 (unsubsidized prices). Here in China, you can get a top tier Xiaomi 2 with ultra high end specs for about $310, less than half the price of an iPhone 4S, about $700 here. You can also go to a phone shop and buy a low end Android phone for under $50. In developed markets, price isn't as big a factor as emerging markets, and in the next few years, that's where smartphone growth will be, because most developed markets are approaching saturation. As smartphones replace feature phones and dumb phones, price will play a major part in units sold. Apple's market share will continue to dwindle. That's not to say Apple won't be phenomenally profitable. They can sell 300M iPhones in 2015 and still drop in market share if extremely high growth rates in emerging markets continue.
How will WP8 and BB10 affect Apple's market share? It can only hurt it. Even if neither are successful, it doesn't help Apple's market share. The major question is how much damage will it do to Apple's market share. At the moment, that's really unknowable. I can make predictions, as can anybody else, but in the end, they're just best guesses. Even using hindsight can't help. It's very difficult to say how much the Samsung Galaxy line has affected iPhone sales with any degree of certainty.
If you want to believe that AAPL stock is going to trend down, that's fine. I have no problem with that. I was just explaining the major reasons for the recent drop in AAPL's stock price. Seeing the NASDAQ drop over 10% over it's Sept. high means there's a general downturn to tech stocks, and AAPL certainly isn't immune to that. There are also a bunch of other uncertainties surrounding AAPL, and investors hate uncertainty. Maybe AAPL will be $1000 stock in a year, maybe it will be a $300 stock. There's certainly enough reasons to believe in either, so take your pick.
- CrackBerry Master
11-25-2012, 12:25 AM #117
- 1,275 Posts
That is why I can see a surge in the new year. How great? Depends on how quickly they can roll out their new product across the world. If they just go in, 10 countries at a time instead of all across the world, that will slow things down.
- 11-25-2012, 02:14 AM #119Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for thou art crunchy, and good with ketchup
- 11-25-2012, 02:21 AM #120
I think most people in this thread are looking at this from a US marketshare perspective. Remember the OP said global market share. I think this is possible.
For example, last quater Apple is only on 15% global smartphone marketshare while RIM was at 4.3%, thats less than 3.5x as much and thats just on BBOS before BB10
- 11-25-2012, 02:26 AM #121Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for thou art crunchy, and good with ketchup
- 11-25-2012, 09:18 AM #123
Re: 1 year Prediction
Your argument regarding Samsung is also doubtful, as the big spike in recent Samsung revenues is primarily driven by S3, not the low end phones. And this is exactly where they are eating away apples profits. With bb joining the same domain, even more sales and market share is going to be driven away.
Sure there are a lot of hurdles in order for RIM to regain any past glory. But this is not the objective now, Apple have pissed off almost every single mobile technology company. And while they are busy suing the out of each other, I see no reason why rim can't sneak in and take up considerable market share. Afterall this is exactly what apple did. And from there RIM can work back to previous heights or even better. Why not?
As regarding the stock trending down, it's not what I want to believe it is exactly what is happening. Of course you can compare it to previous year and argue that the profits are higher, but this is not what matters what matters is where the profits are going. I'm sure apple will recover some sales in the q4, but it is still uncertain how they will perform next year, with competition launching so many products.
It won't happen in one year though.
Last edited by sydsam; 11-25-2012 at 09:30 AM.
- CrackBerry Master
11-25-2012, 09:27 AM #124
- 1,269 Posts
in a year, yearly sales will be about double or triple from the current sales.
old BB customers who had to go elsewhere because RIM did not offer enough will come back, Apple customers who are bored with their smart phone will want to graduate to BB10 computer phone and the same with other brand smart phones.
so eventually what you get is Apple type smart phones will become entry level smart phones and some customers will move up to the computer phone.
down the line when RIM actually introduces software to use the computer phone as a small mobile computer, customers will buy the BB10 for that as well.
so hands down a double or triple in a year, in sales...
- 11-25-2012, 09:43 AM #125
1 year Prediction
"The company shipped7.4 million BlackBerry smartphones and 130,000 PlayBook tablets."
Sell-in not sell-trough
Where did you get that from?
As for profit, I mean loss, they recorded a fiscal second-quarter loss of $235 million on revenues of $2.9 billion.
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