It's quite possible that Apple will not meet sales or earnings expectations, and a consensus on that could also drag on stock price, and they did miss both in their last quarterly report. Long term expectations though, don't seem to be effected much, or else the stock would have dropped much further and would not have rebounded. The 52 week low is about $360, and at a recent close of $571, it is still significantly higher than a year ago. The state of the Eurozone actually has a lot to do with.... just about everything. The Eurozone is the world's largest economy. At the moment, even Germany is having problems. If the Eurozone goes into a major recession, it could have significant impact on the worldwide economy. None of this was missed in the markets. NASDAQ, until a recent recovery, it was down about 15% since Sept. to earlier in the month. Picking single countries in the Eurozone is like picking single states in the US. Places like NY are doing fine, but places like Alabama, not so much. In the same way, Greece is tiny compared to the rest of the Eurozone. It's population is about half that of the New York metro area. You have to look at the entire combined Eurozone entity. Sandy as devastating as it was, it's effect on AAPL is probably minimal, since it's major damage was/is limited to a tiny portion of the US population.
Originally Posted by sydsam
There is no doubt Samsung is Apple's biggest competitor at the moment. It's more than likely without them, Apple would have a much larger market share in the smartphone market. That's not reality though. The major question is as you stated, will they continue to eat away at Apple's market share. It's more than likely that they, along with many other Android makers, will do exactly that. The reason is very simple. Price. Android runs the gamut from $50 to $700 (unsubsidized prices). Here in China, you can get a top tier Xiaomi 2 with ultra high end specs for about $310, less than half the price of an iPhone 4S, about $700 here. You can also go to a phone shop and buy a low end Android phone for under $50. In developed markets, price isn't as big a factor as emerging markets, and in the next few years, that's where smartphone growth will be, because most developed markets are approaching saturation. As smartphones replace feature phones and dumb phones, price will play a major part in units sold. Apple's market share will continue to dwindle. That's not to say Apple won't be phenomenally profitable. They can sell 300M iPhones in 2015 and still drop in market share if extremely high growth rates in emerging markets continue.
How will WP8 and BB10 affect Apple's market share? It can only hurt it. Even if neither are successful, it doesn't help Apple's market share. The major question is how much damage will it do to Apple's market share. At the moment, that's really unknowable. I can make predictions, as can anybody else, but in the end, they're just best guesses. Even using hindsight can't help. It's very difficult to say how much the Samsung Galaxy line has affected iPhone sales with any degree of certainty.
If you want to believe that AAPL stock is going to trend down, that's fine. I have no problem with that. I was just explaining the major reasons for the recent drop in AAPL's stock price. Seeing the NASDAQ drop over 10% over it's Sept. high means there's a general downturn to tech stocks, and AAPL certainly isn't immune to that. There are also a bunch of other uncertainties surrounding AAPL, and investors hate uncertainty. Maybe AAPL will be $1000 stock in a year, maybe it will be a $300 stock. There's certainly enough reasons to believe in either, so take your pick.