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  1. skyrocket9's Avatar
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    #101  

    Default Re: 1 year Prediction

    Some blackberry owners raw too blind and refuse to accept reality of the situation.
  2. dentynefire's Avatar
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    #102  

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    Quote Originally Posted by inthemix9 View Post
    Rims not going to ship more than 7 mil devices even with bb10, the demand will just be too low.


    It's too late
    You can't even spell RIM FFS.

    Its never to late for Phonics bro
  3. skyrocket9's Avatar
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    #103  

    Default Re: 1 year Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by dentynefire View Post
    You can't even spell RIM FFS.

    Its never to late for Phonics bro
    Focus on my spelling and not the 7mil device comment.

    Today I'm using my s3 and not my trusty 9900, no physical keyboard = sad.
  4. kevinnugent's Avatar
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    #104  

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    Quote Originally Posted by hurds View Post
    Definitely standing by this prediction. Please bookmark it all you want. It will be interesting to see where we are at in a year. I could make some prediction like apple will be dead in 10 years (just an example) but that wouldn't be any fun cause non of us will likely be posting here. For those who says its too early to say, well, ya obviously its early, but whats the point in making predictions if you have almost all the info you need to tell if it will come true.

    To the peope who want to wager, I've said this before there are ways outside this forum that are more reputable but if you are so confident I'm wrong, I'll say the same to you. PM me.

    I find it funny how stable people think this market is. Just like it was for RIM? Oh well.

    To be clear too I was definitely not talking about stock price. Thats a complete crap shoot. Just like RIMs up almost double for absolutely no reason. Nothing has changed since september with RIM.

    I'm saying market share of all iPhones to all BBs (smartphone only not including tablets), if you re-read my OP I think its clear. Its obviously hard to gauge that number since its hard to tell how many current iphone users their are. We know active BB users. Android will probably maintain number 1, but it could collapse over night but I think its still too early for that to happen. And i believe WP8 will grow, but remain in single digits. I know its perplexing to some people that we all don't think the same, but that should be a given since I no longer use an iphone and I'm a BB/RIM fan.

    This is definitely an aside from the fact that new iphones need to be continually sold while old BBs keep on steadily giving to RIM. Even moerso this is also aside from the total OS marketshare which is going to be extremely interesting, and to me far more interesting that just smartphones. I'd say the most important thing is just being in the game, too bad for hp/webos and nokia, and I guess any OEM without their own platform.
    Mate, I admire your moxy but there's no way on God's green earth that RIM are going to triple their market share in a year - if ever. You are going to have to rely on Apples' very quick and dramatic fall from grace and that's not going to happen in 12 months either.
  5. sydsam's Avatar
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    #105  

    Default Re: 1 year Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by inthemix9 View Post
    Some blackberry owners raw too blind and refuse to accept reality of the situation.
    And what is that reality, according to you? Poland first, as usual?
  6. skyrocket9's Avatar
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    #106  

    Default Re: 1 year Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by sydsam View Post
    And what is that reality, according to you? Poland first, as usual?
    Reality isn't according to any one person, so I can't answer that for you. Check the news, markets, other competition and you will see.

    What isn't reality though is coming on here and making absurd claims without and factual information. Claiming companies will fall or rise regardless of who they are (I have no favorites). Just because you invested mmoney in RIM doesnt give you the right to make insane claims about competition.
  7. sydsam's Avatar
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    #107  

    Default Re: 1 year Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by inthemix9 View Post
    Reality isn't according to any one person, so I can't answer that for you. Check the news, markets, other competition and you will see.

    What isn't reality though is coming on here and making absurd claims without and factual information. Claiming companies will fall or rise regardless of who they are (I have no favorites). Just because you invested mmoney in RIM doesnt give you the right to make insane claims about competition.
    How can you claim, that somebody is detached from reality, if you don't know what reality is in the first place?

    And just fruit for thought, do you think there is a reason why Apple's shares fell 25% in the last 3 months?
  8. skyrocket9's Avatar
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    #108  

    Default Re: 1 year Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by sydsam View Post
    How can you claim, that somebody is detached from reality, if you don't know what reality is in the first place?

    And just fruit for thought, do you think there is a reason why Apple's shares fell 25% in the last 3 months?
    Built up too much hype for iPhone 5, launched the same nonsense as usual and stock fell because they didn't introduce anything different.

    Bb10 is also building up lots of hype, let's hope that hype lives tl expectations.
  9. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    #109  

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    Quote Originally Posted by sydsam View Post
    And what is that reality, according to you? Poland first, as usual?
    Isn't the reality of the situation painfully obvious? There are just too many obstacles in the way for RIM to overtake Apple in one year. I guess it's possible, just that the likelihood of it actually happening is very slim. I'd equate the odds to a random high school baseball team being able to beat the Giants in a 7 game series. It's possible, just not likely to happen.
  10. vorpalz's Avatar
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    #110  

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    Quote Originally Posted by qbnkelt View Post
    Tell me about it. You've got no idea how much I need RIM to pull this off.
    I've got loved ones who will not put any instant messenger on their phones except for BBM and who will not buy anything but BB.
    At work I NEED for my agency to stay with BB.
    I am absolutely NEEDING RIM to pull this off.
    But I thought we don't need to get that worked up, after all, isn't it just a phone?
    Last edited by vorpalz; 11-24-2012 at 10:08 PM.
  11. skyrocket9's Avatar
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    #111  

    Default Re: 1 year Prediction

    [QUOTE=vorpalz;7745337]
    Quote Originally Posted by qbnkelt View Post

    But I thought we don't need to get that worked up, after all, isn't it just a phone?
    True very true
  12. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    #112  

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    Quote Originally Posted by sydsam View Post
    How can you claim, that somebody is detached from reality, if you don't know what reality is in the first place?

    And just fruit for thought, do you think there is a reason why Apple's shares fell 25% in the last 3 months?
    There are various reasons for a large cap stock to drop significantly in a short amount of time. It's quite possible it was overpriced. There was probably some profit taking once it high $600s. There are questions as to whether AAPL can hold on to its dominant position in the tablet market given recent events. There are questions as to Apple's ability to fulfill orders because of supply constraints. AAPL's position as a seller of luxury goods and potential for luxury goods to tank in some markets. The recent election and economic outlook. Recent events in the Eurozone. Basically, there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding AAPL, and if there's one thing investors (especially institutional investors) hate, it's uncertainty. Will AAPL rebound? It's hard to say. It's most recent price was $571, so it seems to be recovering. There are some bulls who expect it to be a $1000 stock in a years time. Maybe, maybe not.
  13. mzceetee's Avatar
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    #113  

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    This is interesting find...well I ll check n with a yr on this post.... bookmark....
  14. hurds's Avatar
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #114  

    Default

    I guess my prediction will have to be the bolder option market share of sales, not of users numbers since sales numbers is more quantifiable. But that does mean we won't be counting previous sales as a benefit to either company. Actually, I'll just say BBs will be beating iPhone in either just so I'm covering my bases. So lets check back in a year and see how I did.

    And if I'm wrong I'll let you all know what will happen to me......wait for it................................................ .................nothing. Although I may shrug my shoulders and do a short 'hmm' and think 'guess i was wrong'.


    I honestly do see it as possible, someone mentioned they don't know what I'm basing it on, but please convince me or give me good reasons against it.

    RIM 1 year from 11/24/12 to have greater Smartphone Marketshare than iPhone!!!!
  15. sydsam's Avatar
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    #115  

    Default Re: 1 year Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Roo Zilla View Post
    There are various reasons for a large cap stock to drop significantly in a short amount of time. It's quite possible it was overpriced. There was probably some profit taking once it high $600s. There are questions as to whether AAPL can hold on to its dominant position in the tablet market given recent events. There are questions as to Apple's ability to fulfill orders because of supply constraints. AAPL's position as a seller of luxury goods and potential for luxury goods to tank in some markets. The recent election and economic outlook. Recent events in the Eurozone. Basically, there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding AAPL, and if there's one thing investors (especially institutional investors) hate, it's uncertainty. Will AAPL rebound? It's hard to say. It's most recent price was $571, so it seems to be recovering. There are some bulls who expect it to be a $1000 stock in a years time. Maybe, maybe not.
    Or maybe that they don't meet market expectations? What does Eurozone has to do with it. The PIGS didn't get their name for nothing. Or was apple basing their projections, on Greeks finally going to work, getting money and therefore needing an iPhone??? I mean you can throw Sandy into the mix if you want, but the fact of the matter is that, Samsung, and possibly in the future bb and wp8 will be eating away sales. And this is a no-no.
  16. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    #116  

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    Quote Originally Posted by sydsam View Post
    Or maybe that they don't meet market expectations? What does Eurozone has to do with it. The PIGS didn't get their name for nothing. Or was apple basing their projections, on Greeks finally going to work, getting money and therefore needing an iPhone??? I mean you can throw Sandy into the mix if you want, but the fact of the matter is that, Samsung, and possibly in the future bb and wp8 will be eating away sales. And this is a no-no.
    It's quite possible that Apple will not meet sales or earnings expectations, and a consensus on that could also drag on stock price, and they did miss both in their last quarterly report. Long term expectations though, don't seem to be effected much, or else the stock would have dropped much further and would not have rebounded. The 52 week low is about $360, and at a recent close of $571, it is still significantly higher than a year ago. The state of the Eurozone actually has a lot to do with.... just about everything. The Eurozone is the world's largest economy. At the moment, even Germany is having problems. If the Eurozone goes into a major recession, it could have significant impact on the worldwide economy. None of this was missed in the markets. NASDAQ, until a recent recovery, it was down about 15% since Sept. to earlier in the month. Picking single countries in the Eurozone is like picking single states in the US. Places like NY are doing fine, but places like Alabama, not so much. In the same way, Greece is tiny compared to the rest of the Eurozone. It's population is about half that of the New York metro area. You have to look at the entire combined Eurozone entity. Sandy as devastating as it was, it's effect on AAPL is probably minimal, since it's major damage was/is limited to a tiny portion of the US population.

    There is no doubt Samsung is Apple's biggest competitor at the moment. It's more than likely without them, Apple would have a much larger market share in the smartphone market. That's not reality though. The major question is as you stated, will they continue to eat away at Apple's market share. It's more than likely that they, along with many other Android makers, will do exactly that. The reason is very simple. Price. Android runs the gamut from $50 to $700 (unsubsidized prices). Here in China, you can get a top tier Xiaomi 2 with ultra high end specs for about $310, less than half the price of an iPhone 4S, about $700 here. You can also go to a phone shop and buy a low end Android phone for under $50. In developed markets, price isn't as big a factor as emerging markets, and in the next few years, that's where smartphone growth will be, because most developed markets are approaching saturation. As smartphones replace feature phones and dumb phones, price will play a major part in units sold. Apple's market share will continue to dwindle. That's not to say Apple won't be phenomenally profitable. They can sell 300M iPhones in 2015 and still drop in market share if extremely high growth rates in emerging markets continue.

    How will WP8 and BB10 affect Apple's market share? It can only hurt it. Even if neither are successful, it doesn't help Apple's market share. The major question is how much damage will it do to Apple's market share. At the moment, that's really unknowable. I can make predictions, as can anybody else, but in the end, they're just best guesses. Even using hindsight can't help. It's very difficult to say how much the Samsung Galaxy line has affected iPhone sales with any degree of certainty.

    If you want to believe that AAPL stock is going to trend down, that's fine. I have no problem with that. I was just explaining the major reasons for the recent drop in AAPL's stock price. Seeing the NASDAQ drop over 10% over it's Sept. high means there's a general downturn to tech stocks, and AAPL certainly isn't immune to that. There are also a bunch of other uncertainties surrounding AAPL, and investors hate uncertainty. Maybe AAPL will be $1000 stock in a year, maybe it will be a $300 stock. There's certainly enough reasons to believe in either, so take your pick.
  17. timmy t's Avatar
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    #117  

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    Quote Originally Posted by jthep View Post
    Which is meaningless since RIM has not released a notable new device in over a year. Overall marketshare RIM is still a major player despite not having a new device in such a long time. BB10 gives RIM a real shot at being a much stronger number 3 at the very least or a shot at being number 1 again worldwide if they design lower end cheaper models too. There are a lot of possibilities in BB10.
    It is not meaningless, it indicates the current reality. But, as you imply, in the new year, there is a great potential for RIM to move up greatly in the marketplace. RIM is at where it is using a dated OS and hardware. What will a new OS and up-to-date hardware do?
    That is why I can see a surge in the new year. How great? Depends on how quickly they can roll out their new product across the world. If they just go in, 10 countries at a time instead of all across the world, that will slow things down.
  18. skyrocket9's Avatar
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    #118  

    Default Re: 1 year Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Roo Zilla View Post
    It's quite possible that Apple will not meet sales or earnings expectations, and a consensus on that could also drag on stock price, and they did miss both in their last quarterly report. Long term expectations though, don't seem to be effected much, or else the stock would have dropped much further and would not have rebounded. The 52 week low is about $360, and at a recent close of $571, it is still significantly higher than a year ago. The state of the Eurozone actually has a lot to do with.... just about everything. The Eurozone is the world's largest economy. At the moment, even Germany is having problems. If the Eurozone goes into a major recession, it could have significant impact on the worldwide economy. None of this was missed in the markets. NASDAQ, until a recent recovery, it was down about 15% since Sept. to earlier in the month. Picking single countries in the Eurozone is like picking single states in the US. Places like NY are doing fine, but places like Alabama, not so much. In the same way, Greece is tiny compared to the rest of the Eurozone. It's population is about half that of the New York metro area. You have to look at the entire combined Eurozone entity. Sandy as devastating as it was, it's effect on AAPL is probably minimal, since it's major damage was/is limited to a tiny portion of the US population.

    There is no doubt Samsung is Apple's biggest competitor at the moment. It's more than likely without them, Apple would have a much larger market share in the smartphone market. That's not reality though. The major question is as you stated, will they continue to eat away at Apple's market share. It's more than likely that they, along with many other Android makers, will do exactly that. The reason is very simple. Price. Android runs the gamut from $50 to $700 (unsubsidized prices). Here in China, you can get a top tier Xiaomi 2 with ultra high end specs for about $310, less than half the price of an iPhone 4S, about $700 here. You can also go to a phone shop and buy a low end Android phone for under $50. In developed markets, price isn't as big a factor as emerging markets, and in the next few years, that's where smartphone growth will be, because most developed markets are approaching saturation. As smartphones replace feature phones and dumb phones, price will play a major part in units sold. Apple's market share will continue to dwindle. That's not to say Apple won't be phenomenally profitable. They can sell 300M iPhones in 2015 and still drop in market share if extremely high growth rates in emerging markets continue.

    How will WP8 and BB10 affect Apple's market share? It can only hurt it. Even if neither are successful, it doesn't help Apple's market share. The major question is how much damage will it do to Apple's market share. At the moment, that's really unknowable. I can make predictions, as can anybody else, but in the end, they're just best guesses. Even using hindsight can't help. It's very difficult to say how much the Samsung Galaxy line has affected iPhone sales with any degree of certainty.

    If you want to believe that AAPL stock is going to trend down, that's fine. I have no problem with that. I was just explaining the major reasons for the recent drop in AAPL's stock price. Seeing the NASDAQ drop over 10% over it's Sept. high means there's a general downturn to tech stocks, and AAPL certainly isn't immune to that. There are also a bunch of other uncertainties surrounding AAPL, and investors hate uncertainty. Maybe AAPL will be $1000 stock in a year, maybe it will be a $300 stock. There's certainly enough reasons to believe in either, so take your pick.
    This sums it up as best as anyone could over have said it.

    Kudos, very nice explanation.
  19. #119  

    Default 1 year Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by vorpalz View Post
    But I thought we don't need to get that worked up, after all, isn't it just a phone?
    There is a world of difference between addressing one very comical-over-the-top-uncomprehending-overreaction to a post and my statements as to why I need a phone to succeed.









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  20. tharrison4815's Avatar
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    #120  

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    I think most people in this thread are looking at this from a US marketshare perspective. Remember the OP said global market share. I think this is possible.

    EDIT:

    For example, last quater Apple is only on 15% global smartphone marketshare while RIM was at 4.3%, thats less than 3.5x as much and thats just on BBOS before BB10
    jagrlover likes this.
  21. #121  

    Default 1 year Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by tharrison4815 View Post
    I think most people in this thread are looking at this from a US maeketshare perspective. Remember the OP said global market share. I think this is possible.
    That's why we're all meeting here one year after launch.


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  22. Zarpan's Avatar
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    #122  

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    Quote Originally Posted by inthemix9 View Post
    Rims not going to ship more than 7 mil devices even with bb10, the demand will just be too low.


    It's too late
    7 million? How do you get to that figure? RIM's sell through was over 10 million during each of the last two quarters.
  23. sydsam's Avatar
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    #123  

    Default Re: 1 year Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Roo Zilla View Post
    It's quite possible that Apple will not meet sales or earnings expectations, and a consensus on that could also drag on stock price, and they did miss both in their last quarterly report. Long term expectations though, don't seem to be effected much, or else the stock would have dropped much further and would not have rebounded. The 52 week low is about $360, and at a recent close of $571, it is still significantly higher than a year ago. The state of the Eurozone actually has a lot to do with.... just about everything. The Eurozone is the world's largest economy. At the moment, even Germany is having problems. If the Eurozone goes into a major recession, it could have significant impact on the worldwide economy. None of this was missed in the markets. NASDAQ, until a recent recovery, it was down about 15% since Sept. to earlier in the month. Picking single countries in the Eurozone is like picking single states in the US. Places like NY are doing fine, but places like Alabama, not so much. In the same way, Greece is tiny compared to the rest of the Eurozone. It's population is about half that of the New York metro area. You have to look at the entire combined Eurozone entity. Sandy as devastating as it was, it's effect on AAPL is probably minimal, since it's major damage was/is limited to a tiny portion of the US population.

    There is no doubt Samsung is Apple's biggest competitor at the moment. It's more than likely without them, Apple would have a much larger market share in the smartphone market. That's not reality though. The major question is as you stated, will they continue to eat away at Apple's market share. It's more than likely that they, along with many other Android makers, will do exactly that. The reason is very simple. Price. Android runs the gamut from $50 to $700 (unsubsidized prices). Here in China, you can get a top tier Xiaomi 2 with ultra high end specs for about $310, less than half the price of an iPhone 4S, about $700 here. You can also go to a phone shop and buy a low end Android phone for under $50. In developed markets, price isn't as big a factor as emerging markets, and in the next few years, that's where smartphone growth will be, because most developed markets are approaching saturation. As smartphones replace feature phones and dumb phones, price will play a major part in units sold. Apple's market share will continue to dwindle. That's not to say Apple won't be phenomenally profitable. They can sell 300M iPhones in 2015 and still drop in market share if extremely high growth rates in emerging markets continue.

    How will WP8 and BB10 affect Apple's market share? It can only hurt it. Even if neither are successful, it doesn't help Apple's market share. The major question is how much damage will it do to Apple's market share. At the moment, that's really unknowable. I can make predictions, as can anybody else, but in the end, they're just best guesses. Even using hindsight can't help. It's very difficult to say how much the Samsung Galaxy line has affected iPhone sales with any degree of certainty.

    If you want to believe that AAPL stock is going to trend down, that's fine. I have no problem with that. I was just explaining the major reasons for the recent drop in AAPL's stock price. Seeing the NASDAQ drop over 10% over it's Sept. high means there's a general downturn to tech stocks, and AAPL certainly isn't immune to that. There are also a bunch of other uncertainties surrounding AAPL, and investors hate uncertainty. Maybe AAPL will be $1000 stock in a year, maybe it will be a $300 stock. There's certainly enough reasons to believe in either, so take your pick.
    Eurozone has nothing to do with Apples stock price. All this looks like an excuse of a bad salesman. Eurozone has been in the same state for the last 4 years. And somehow this didn't effect Apples share price. The only thing that changed is that Eurozone crisis rhetoric has been heavily picked in the US. If your suggestion is correct the Eurozone crisis should be effecting every single stock out there not aapl exclusively, as you argue.

    Your argument regarding Samsung is also doubtful, as the big spike in recent Samsung revenues is primarily driven by S3, not the low end phones. And this is exactly where they are eating away apples profits. With bb joining the same domain, even more sales and market share is going to be driven away.

    Sure there are a lot of hurdles in order for RIM to regain any past glory. But this is not the objective now, Apple have pissed off almost every single mobile technology company. And while they are busy suing the out of each other, I see no reason why rim can't sneak in and take up considerable market share. Afterall this is exactly what apple did. And from there RIM can work back to previous heights or even better. Why not?

    As regarding the stock trending down, it's not what I want to believe it is exactly what is happening. Of course you can compare it to previous year and argue that the profits are higher, but this is not what matters what matters is where the profits are going. I'm sure apple will recover some sales in the q4, but it is still uncertain how they will perform next year, with competition launching so many products.

    It won't happen in one year though.
    Last edited by sydsam; 11-25-2012 at 08:30 AM.
  24. silversun10's Avatar
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    #124  

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    in a year, yearly sales will be about double or triple from the current sales.
    old BB customers who had to go elsewhere because RIM did not offer enough will come back, Apple customers who are bored with their smart phone will want to graduate to BB10 computer phone and the same with other brand smart phones.
    so eventually what you get is Apple type smart phones will become entry level smart phones and some customers will move up to the computer phone.
    down the line when RIM actually introduces software to use the computer phone as a small mobile computer, customers will buy the BB10 for that as well.
    so hands down a double or triple in a year, in sales...
  25. FFR
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    #125  

    Default 1 year Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Zarpan View Post
    7 million? How do you get to that figure?
    SEPT 27, 2012
    http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-575...$235m-q2-loss/

    "The company shipped7.4 million BlackBerry smartphones and 130,000 PlayBook tablets."

    Sell-in not sell-trough

    Quote Originally Posted by Zarpan View Post
    RIM's sell through was over 10 million during each of the last two quarters.
    '

    Where did you get that from?


    As for profit, I mean loss, they recorded a fiscal second-quarter loss of $235 million on revenues of $2.9 billion.




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