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  1. playbookster's Avatar
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    Default Z10 selling out in the UK, Several hundred thousand sold

    And then a short while ago, Misek published a second note writing that initial sales data from the U.K., where the Z10 went on sale yesterday, are encouraging:

    Our initial checks indicate that sales in the UK are off to a strong start. Some stores had lineups out front with widespread sell outs of the White Z10 and limited stock of the Black Z10 […] We believe Carphone Warehouse is seeing widespread sell-outs while O2, Vodafone, Orange and EE are seeing robust demand. We estimate sell-in to be at least several hundred thousand units. To put that in perspective, the iPhone had first weekend sales of 5M+ in the U.S. The U.S. is five times larger so continued strong sales could bode very well for Blackberry […] Also, our checks indicate that pre-orders in the UAE and Canada have had a solid start. While this is not the crux of our call, these initial data points could provide some relief as many thought that the Z10 was DOA.

    RIMM: Jefferies Pounds the Table on Software Prospects, Z10 Sales - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
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  2. bk1022's Avatar
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    Awesome! Plus for every UK customer who migrates to a new Z10, BlackBerry loses $5/mo. in BIS fees or thereabouts..
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    hoovermac (02-02-2013) 
  3. playbookster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bk1022 View Post
    Awesome! Plus for every UK customer who migrates to a new Z10, BlackBerry loses $5/mo. in BIS fees or thereabouts..
    True, but their gross margin on the phones is much higher than not selling phones at all Plus I am sure they are attracting new customers, not just current BB users. And BlackBerry may make up losses in BIS by selling more apps as they do get a cut of the profits.
  4. silversun10's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by playbookster View Post
    True, but their gross margin on the phones is much higher than not selling phones at all Plus I am sure they are attracting new customers, not just current BB users. And BlackBerry may make up losses in BIS by selling more apps as they do get a cut of the profits.
    ok, so it is better to have zero BB10 sales?
  5. derpOverflow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bk1022 View Post
    Awesome! Plus for every UK customer who migrates to a new Z10, BlackBerry loses $5/mo. in BIS fees or thereabouts..
    Its more like $3 per month or $72 for 2 years which is easily offset by Blackberry getting another $200 per device up front. Not to mention the money they make off apps and other stuff.
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  6. playbookster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silversun10 View Post
    ok, so it is better to have zero BB10 sales?
    Where did I say that? lol I am saying their gross margin is much higher on these phones compared to bb7 phones which is heavily discounted. BB will be making a lot more money off the Z10's than what they were making off their BB7 phones in 2012, which also compensates for the loss of BIS fees.
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  7. ibpluto's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bk1022 View Post
    Awesome! Plus for every UK customer who migrates to a new Z10, BlackBerry loses $5/mo. in BIS fees or thereabouts..
    I heard Apple doesn't get any AIS for any phones old either ....
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  8. teerone's Avatar
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    Good to hear its selling out.
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  9. bluetroll's Avatar
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    same thing will happen in Canada.

    Thanks for the post OP
  10. silversun10's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by playbookster View Post
    Where did I say that? lol I am saying their gross margin is much higher on these phones compared to bb7 phones which is heavily discounted. BB will be making a lot more money off the Z10's than what they were making off their BB7 phones in 2012, which also compensates for the loss of BIS fees.
    no, no i quoted the wrong post, sorry, that was for the person whining about losing the $5 mo charge....
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  11. playbookster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by silversun10 View Post
    no, no i quoted the wrong post, sorry, that was for the person whining about losing the $5 mo charge....
    Oh ok
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  12. RubberChicken76's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bk1022 View Post
    Awesome! Plus for every UK customer who migrates to a new Z10, BlackBerry loses $5/mo. in BIS fees or thereabouts..
    Complain, complain, complain, complain, complain, complain.

    Only you could take a positive story like this and mope around like Eyore the Donkey
  13. playbookster's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RubberChicken76 View Post
    Complain, complain, complain, complain, complain, complain.

    Only you could take a positive story like this and mope around like Eyore the Donkey
    I often wonder why these people exist. What enjoyment do you get out of being miserable?
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    Quote Originally Posted by playbookster View Post
    I often wonder why these people exist. What enjoyment do you get out of being miserable?
    isnt it obvious ? Entertainment ! Duh ?! lol

    Will be Canada's turn to show the love in a few days...
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  15. narci's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yunvi View Post
    isnt it obvious ? Entertainment ! Duh ?! lol

    Will be Canada's turn to show the love in a few days...
    I can't wait to see the buzz when the phones gets into Canadians consumer hands.
  16. BBThemes's Avatar
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    in fairness the several hundred thousand comment is about sell in and not sell thru. just bein realistic people

    Thorsten said ZED 10. deal with it
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  17. redk's Avatar
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    #17  

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    Since Blackberry was trying to target the apps by region. How are you folks in the UK feeling with the app selection?
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    Quote Originally Posted by playbookster View Post
    I often wonder why these people exist. What enjoyment do you get out of being miserable?
    The joy isn't in being miserable, but rather in spreading misery.
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  19. FSeverino's Avatar
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    Sweet. I if they can get half a million between canada and UK that will be huge right now... US population is 10x larger than canada, plus all of europe and the other countries should easily see 1M
    something that people were saying wouldnt even happen.
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  20. #20  

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    Quote Originally Posted by BBThemes View Post
    in fairness the several hundred thousand comment is about sell in and not sell thru. just bein realistic people
    The suggestion is that available stock has been substantially depleted, and the estimate hints at to be customer uptake (boxes over the counter). Even if it is sell-in volume to resellers it is getting close to retail/end-user sales volume, and at "several hundred thousand" in a UK total population ~60m that is probably better than expected for one day.
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  21. BBThemes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Branta View Post
    The suggestion is that available stock has been substantially depleted, and the estimate hints at to be customer uptake (boxes over the counter). Even if it is sell-in volume to resellers it is getting close to retail/end-user sales volume, and at "several hundred thousand" in a UK total population ~60m that is probably better than expected for one day.
    oh yea, i totally agree, but ya know, set the expectations correctly i guess

    Thorsten said ZED 10. deal with it
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  23. Zarpan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bk1022 View Post
    Awesome! Plus for every UK customer who migrates to a new Z10, BlackBerry loses $5/mo. in BIS fees or thereabouts..
    Here's the math for you:

    BB7: Average margin per device: negative $30. Might be better in the UK due to higher end BB7 models being sold, so there may be some upside there.

    Service revenues per BIS user: $72. Estimated service revenue margin percentage: 85% = Service revenue margins of $61.

    So the average BB7 customer is worth $31.

    Even if there is no service fee revenue for a BB10 customer, the device margins are likely to be in the $150-$200 range, making a BB10 customer worth 5x that of a BB7 customer.

    Or the other way to look at it is that a BB7 customer would need to stick around for about 6 years generating service fees on their original device to equal the value of a BB10 customer.
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  24. kfh227's Avatar
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    Zarpan, nice numbers.

    Could you tell me where the numbers are sourced from though. I'd like to dig into the details more.

    Thanks!
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  25. silversun10's Avatar
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    when it comes to watching line ups for stores, Blackberry has a lot of corporate customers, and so i doubt
    that they are going to stand in line to pick up say 50 phones.
    something to consider...
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