- CrackBerry Abuser
02-19-13, 04:00 PM #52
- 381 Posts
This is totally random.
It is questionable whether BB wanted to push a million units out the door in February anyway. Once BB ships n million phones, if there are any hardware issues not solvable with a software workaround, BB could sink. I'm pretty sure they've thought about this and that's at least one reason why they launched in very favorable (read forgiving) markets before others. Also, it's impossible for us to know how many units have been sold let alone how long the pending order queues are.
- 02-19-13, 04:24 PM #55
- 02-19-13, 04:39 PM #56
- 02-19-13, 04:51 PM #57
For the last year BBRY survived on cost cutting measures and selling low cost devices into emerging economies. How many of those will run out to get a brand new 1.0 phone. 25%. No.
No one knows.
Only 25% would be huge.
- 02-19-13, 04:58 PM #58
Re: Whoa....huge cut in sales from Canaccord.
- 02-19-13, 05:31 PM #60
- CrackBerry Abuser
02-19-13, 06:08 PM #62
- 361 Posts
I posted much of this in the stock thread, but figure that it is relevant here too. I worked at a consumer goods company before doing analysis and reporting, and there is a big difference between sell-through and shipments.
One key thing to look at is the wording of the analyst note. I haven't seen Canaccord's original note, but all the reporting (CBC, Forbes, etc...) seems to talk about shipments. Sell-through is the number of units that end-user customers actually purchase. Shipments are the number of units that carriers and stores purchase. These numbers can differ quite substantially, as BlackBerry had cumulatively shipped more than 10 million units more than sell-through at one point in the past when end-user sales were slower than expected..
300,000 units may be in the reasonable range for sell-through given that the Z10 is only available in some countries, and most of those for less than a month by the time the quarter ends.
However, 300,000 units is quite low for shipments. I believe BlackBerry would be able to count a unit as shipped once it leaves its warehouses towards a customer's warehouse. So in addition to sell-through, you'd be able to add in-store inventory, customer in-warehouse inventory, plus anything en-route to a customer as of March 2nd.
Channel inventory for Nokia, Samsung, and Apple has tended to be around 3-6 weeks of sales. So the potential extra shipments to cover channel inventory could be very substantial. Even with low-levels of channel inventory, there should be enough to cover a couple weeks of projected sales. There is also the potential for shipments to go out in this quarter to countries that are launching in March.
So I think the shipment figure of 300k is likely to be quite an underestimate for this quarter. Sell-through is going to be more important in terms of determining the Z10's success, but we won't have lots of data for that until the following quarter.
Even if BlackBerry has poor production planning, I'm pretty certain they are capable of shipping much more than 300k units out the door by March 2nd.
- 02-19-13, 06:13 PM #63
I've suggested many times that "carrier testing" is a red herring, and I think it is. It isn't that big an issue with other handsets, and the Z10 uses hardware that's already out there (it's extremely similar to both a Galaxy SIII and the Nokia 920). The delay is deliberate, and it may well be because of agreement between BB and the carriers.
1) As I've said in (many) other threads, the delay allows the US carriers to gauge sales and consumer response in "friendly" markets, and use that knowledge to plan their own marketing and ordering.
2) As has been suggested by others, the delay gets hundreds of thousands of units into the market and allows for considerable user validation to allow for bug fixes/updates before the US launch.
3) It keeps US sales out of Q1 reports. I can think of two reasons why this would be worth doing for BB: first, it allows them to manage expectations and go into the US market being able to claim success elsewhere. Second, it gives them ALL OF Q2 to sell in the US without having to report numbers; easier to maintain momentum and the suggestion the phone is a hit.
Now, in making this decision, they have to pay the price of scary news items like this one. Canaccord was absolutely correct in revising its sales estimates; they had to.
Fingers crossed and hope this works.
- CrackBerry Abuser
02-19-13, 06:16 PM #64
- 493 Posts
If there is one thing you can be 100% sure of: These "analysts" are as accurate as a Monkey with a dart board. This is actually a proven fact.
Proven how you ask?
None of them are rich.
One more time...none of them are rich.
If you are thinking of investing.....read... research... and think...you will be just as accurate as any of these "experts"
- 02-19-13, 06:18 PM #65
Off topic here, but your signature is really annoying me. I don't care how you pronounce it, but the name of the device is Z10. If that means you pronounce it Zed Ten or Zee Ten, I don't give a darn. Some people in Spain may call it Zeta Diez, but they don't spell it out. If you are going to write the name of the device it is Z10. No questions asked.
- CrackBerry Abuser
02-19-13, 06:25 PM #66
- 422 Posts
T-Mobile USA March 1 rumoured maybe soon after....Ships Feb 28th..This could be the biggest sand bagging of earnings ever.
Canaccord guy just insured himself a walk to the unemployment line.
- 02-19-13, 07:05 PM #69
I think people on this forum should really be prepared for disappointing sales numbers.
I suspected the reaction to BB10's release would be closer to a yawn than it would be to excitement. Blackberry needed a game changer and BB10 doesn't have it.
It's certainly a nice device - I'm thinking of picking up one myself... but it's not going to do much to get iPhone/Android users to switch over - at least not in substantial numbers.
The Z10 would've made a much bigger impact a year ago - today it's middle-of-the-road hardware with a small app selection.
The idea that because there are 70 million BB users is supposed to translate to XX% of them upgrading to BB10 is unrealistic. BB7 and earlier users are tempted by iPhones/Androids just as much as any current iPhone/Android users are tempted to upgrade to a new iPhone/Android device.
Today HTC unveiled a pretty solid looking phone. This and the soon-to-be-announced Galaxy IV will make it even tougher for BB10.
Sadly, I don't think BB10's release in the US will make THAT big a difference overall. It will boost the numbers, but not enough to make that big a difference.
It's weird to say this so soon after the Z10 has been released (and even before it's released in the US) but Blackberry better have another device to release soon (and I'm not talking about the Q10 either). They need a Quad-Core 4.5" 1080p phone and some more apps to go with it - if they want to grab some attention.
If Blackberry are to survive, they finally need to license out BB10 to other manufacturers (ie. Lenovo). It's their only hope.
- CrackBerry Addict
02-19-13, 07:17 PM #70
- 859 Posts
I was agreeing with you until "need a Quad-Core 4.5" 1080p". That's such BS. Most consumers do not care about quad-core vs dual-core. In fact, most techie guys I speak with do not want a quad core phone as it draws a lot more power and isn't much faster for everyday tasks. Second the 1080p issue has been beat to death. Just drop it, nobody wants 1080p on their phone. The current size of the Z10 IS PERFECT. My Thumb just reaches the opposite corner of the screen, any bigger and it will no longer be a single-handed phone. You want a quad-core, 4.5" go buy a Samsung.
- 02-19-13, 07:27 PM #71
Why do I feel this way? Because I think that most people here in the states believe that BlackBerry is dead and Windows Phone is the Number 3 ecosystem (even if no one wants to buy a Windows Phone). Evidence that BlackBerry is not dead (such as a really good Z10 and excitement in other markets) is explained away.
Plus, it sure seems that Blackberry wanted to launch in the US earlier (Superbowl Ad, New York launch, US Media Blitz). The fact that it has not happened that way suggests that something is wrong.
- 02-19-13, 07:30 PM #73
I don't care about quad-core or 1080p on a phone... it doesn't mean others wont.
You think 4.2" screen is the perfect size? Lots of people purchased a Galaxy 3... and a Galaxy Note. So what's good for you, isn't obviously good for others.
What happens when (not if, but when) Samsung's latest quad-core 1080p phone sells like hotcakes? Just ignore it? Is Blackberry destined to play the "me too" game and always falling behind instead of keeping pace with the competition? The epitaph for Blackberry may as well be "too little, too late".
It's simple... people want apps, specs, sizes and all sorts of choices. Samsung's learned that.
- CrackBerry Abuser
02-19-13, 07:32 PM #74
- 422 Posts
Please, refresh the OS, give people the feeling of something new, but not a snapdragonquad turbo rollsroyce jets . Get real.
- 02-19-13, 07:34 PM #75
Techies (who know better) may not always be impressed with quad-core, but consumers are. They reasonably want a phone that can not only handle everything you throw at it today (dual-core) but also what is coming down the pipe over the next year. And since that is a big question mark, they'll gladly take anything they can afford that'll insulate them from any technological issues in that time span. Quad-core is needed in the next BB device (later this year most definitely) or it won't be competitive as a premium device.
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