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  1. dv220s's Avatar
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    #51  

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    Quote Originally Posted by aniym View Post
    That is slightly higher than Nokia has achieved so far for WP8 devices in the last quarter (2.9 million), which comes out to 11.6 million units annualized, assuming an identical sales rate across all 4 quarters. Sounds reasonable, given BB's higher market share and much larger installed base. Don't forget that BB10 devices like the Z10 will not be affordable for the majority of BB users, who live in developing countries and use low-end BB's from years ago.
    Nokia sold 4.4 million Lumias and 6.6 million total smartphones in Q4
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  2. bk1022's Avatar
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    This is totally random.

    It is questionable whether BB wanted to push a million units out the door in February anyway. Once BB ships n million phones, if there are any hardware issues not solvable with a software workaround, BB could sink. I'm pretty sure they've thought about this and that's at least one reason why they launched in very favorable (read forgiving) markets before others. Also, it's impossible for us to know how many units have been sold let alone how long the pending order queues are.
  3. lnichols's Avatar
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    #53  

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    Quote Originally Posted by lawguyman View Post
    Keep in mind that this has happened before. The Bold 9900 was launched in August of 2011 but not available in the US until November!

    US carriers are no longer BlackBerry's friend.

    Posted via CB10
    Just on AT&T. Other carriers had it late September.
  4. W Hoa's Avatar
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    #54  

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    BlackBerry fiscal 2014 starts March 2 2013. It makes some sense to have your big push reflected in the fiscal year financials.
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    #55  

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    Quote Originally Posted by dbmalloy View Post
    If memories serves... testing devices were provided to the various in OCT 2012.....
    If this article is accurate then T-mo is still testing (which means that it isn't out of the question for the others to be still testing as well).

    T-Mobile Says BlackBerry 10 Testing Well for Mid-March Debut - Bloomberg
  6. cgk
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    #56  

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    Quote Originally Posted by craigdavid_UK View Post
    Blackberry currenly have 70million users, so assuming only 25% of them buy Z10... It totals 17.5million devices sold already!
    Why would we make that assumption? If we use the UK as an example, the growth was on low-end curves for teenaged girls and C2DE customers - **** I bought two for nieces mainly because of the cheap BBM access, I'm not going to be replacing it with £1000 worth of kit!
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  7. njblackberry's Avatar
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    #57  

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    For the last year BBRY survived on cost cutting measures and selling low cost devices into emerging economies. How many of those will run out to get a brand new 1.0 phone. 25%. No.
    No one knows.

    Only 25% would be huge.
  8. raysgrumpy's Avatar
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    #58  

    Default Re: Whoa....huge cut in sales from Canaccord.

    Quote Originally Posted by craigdavid_UK View Post
    Blackberry currenly have 70million users, so assuming only 25% of them buy Z10... It totals 17.5million devices sold already!
    25% is not realistic in the least. I've read that the US is about 22% of the Blackberry market. It isn't even released here yet. That doesn't even factor in the people waiting for the Q10 or the fact that they are losing market share and there is no guarantee that the business faithful will be upgrading right away
  9. silversun10's Avatar
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    #59  

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    if Canaccord would believe their own research they would be sellers, but guess what they are not, so
    you can take Canaccord serious, but they themselves don't......so much for that..........
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  10. aniym's Avatar
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    #60  

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    Quote Originally Posted by dv220s View Post
    Nokia sold 4.4 million Lumias and 6.6 million total smartphones in Q4
    Those figures include WP7 devices which are essentially EOL in developed world markets. 2.9 million is the number for WP8 devices like the Lumia 920 and 820. The rest of the numbers are Asha touch phones, which are lower-end featurephone devices...Nokia defines them as smartphones however.
  11. Thunderbuck's Avatar

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    #61  

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    Quote Originally Posted by craigdavid_UK View Post
    I think the sales in Canada would be the highest considering that BB is founded in Canada
    And you'd be wrong. The UK has triple the population that Canada does.





    "Max Power doesn't 'cuddle'! You strap yourself in and feel the Gs!"
  12. Zarpan's Avatar
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    I posted much of this in the stock thread, but figure that it is relevant here too. I worked at a consumer goods company before doing analysis and reporting, and there is a big difference between sell-through and shipments.

    One key thing to look at is the wording of the analyst note. I haven't seen Canaccord's original note, but all the reporting (CBC, Forbes, etc...) seems to talk about shipments. Sell-through is the number of units that end-user customers actually purchase. Shipments are the number of units that carriers and stores purchase. These numbers can differ quite substantially, as BlackBerry had cumulatively shipped more than 10 million units more than sell-through at one point in the past when end-user sales were slower than expected..

    300,000 units may be in the reasonable range for sell-through given that the Z10 is only available in some countries, and most of those for less than a month by the time the quarter ends.

    However, 300,000 units is quite low for shipments. I believe BlackBerry would be able to count a unit as shipped once it leaves its warehouses towards a customer's warehouse. So in addition to sell-through, you'd be able to add in-store inventory, customer in-warehouse inventory, plus anything en-route to a customer as of March 2nd.

    Channel inventory for Nokia, Samsung, and Apple has tended to be around 3-6 weeks of sales. So the potential extra shipments to cover channel inventory could be very substantial. Even with low-levels of channel inventory, there should be enough to cover a couple weeks of projected sales. There is also the potential for shipments to go out in this quarter to countries that are launching in March.

    So I think the shipment figure of 300k is likely to be quite an underestimate for this quarter. Sell-through is going to be more important in terms of determining the Z10's success, but we won't have lots of data for that until the following quarter.

    Even if BlackBerry has poor production planning, I'm pretty certain they are capable of shipping much more than 300k units out the door by March 2nd.
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  13. Thunderbuck's Avatar

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    #63  

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    Quote Originally Posted by lawguyman View Post
    If your estimates include US sales and there are no US sales, don't you have to cut estimates?

    Does 300,000 sound unreasonable?

    This brings into focus the question of why these are not launching in the US.

    Posted via CB10
    Actually, this is probably part of the reason WHY they're holding off on the US launch.

    I've suggested many times that "carrier testing" is a red herring, and I think it is. It isn't that big an issue with other handsets, and the Z10 uses hardware that's already out there (it's extremely similar to both a Galaxy SIII and the Nokia 920). The delay is deliberate, and it may well be because of agreement between BB and the carriers.

    1) As I've said in (many) other threads, the delay allows the US carriers to gauge sales and consumer response in "friendly" markets, and use that knowledge to plan their own marketing and ordering.
    2) As has been suggested by others, the delay gets hundreds of thousands of units into the market and allows for considerable user validation to allow for bug fixes/updates before the US launch.
    3) It keeps US sales out of Q1 reports. I can think of two reasons why this would be worth doing for BB: first, it allows them to manage expectations and go into the US market being able to claim success elsewhere. Second, it gives them ALL OF Q2 to sell in the US without having to report numbers; easier to maintain momentum and the suggestion the phone is a hit.

    Now, in making this decision, they have to pay the price of scary news items like this one. Canaccord was absolutely correct in revising its sales estimates; they had to.

    Fingers crossed and hope this works.





    "Max Power doesn't 'cuddle'! You strap yourself in and feel the Gs!"
    cgk and Toodeurep like this.
  14. melb_me's Avatar
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    If there is one thing you can be 100% sure of: These "analysts" are as accurate as a Monkey with a dart board. This is actually a proven fact.
    Proven how you ask?
    None of them are rich.
    One more time...none of them are rich.
    If you are thinking of investing.....read... research... and think...you will be just as accurate as any of these "experts"
  15. chi-town311's Avatar
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    #65  

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    Off topic here, but your signature is really annoying me. I don't care how you pronounce it, but the name of the device is Z10. If that means you pronounce it Zed Ten or Zee Ten, I don't give a darn. Some people in Spain may call it Zeta Diez, but they don't spell it out. If you are going to write the name of the device it is Z10. No questions asked.

    Quote Originally Posted by BBThemes View Post
    It is the carriers fault, well, its probably easier to describe as not RIM`s fault.

    RIM gave the devices and OS to ALL carriers at the same time, so depending how you look at it, that either makes canada, france, uk, uae and other markets exteremly effecient at doing QA on new phones, or it makes the US more thorough.

    Either way though to say its RIM`s fault would be wrong, as they behaved fairly with all carriers.
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  16. mikeycollins13's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chrysaurora View Post
    My guess is:
    • Feb sales for Canada ~ 75,000
    • Feb sales for UK ~ 200,000
    • Feb sales for UAE ~ 20,000

    That that's 300,000 right there.
    Plus, in Feb it's also launching in few more EU countries (France, Belgium, Germany, Turkey etc.)
    Plus, in Feb, it's also launching in India in Feb
    So, I think, we are looking at at-least 400,000 sales. At least, 33% more than Canaccord's estimates.
    + You may be missing a simple fact. Units shipped in Feb is a sold unit! Any Shipping to FR, IT, India. is SOLD! Turkey? SOLD.

    T-Mobile USA March 1 rumoured maybe soon after....Ships Feb 28th..This could be the biggest sand bagging of earnings ever.

    Canaccord guy just insured himself a walk to the unemployment line.
  17. capper96's Avatar
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    no news is good news concerning stocks and publicly traded companies.

    If the company is doing bad, thats when it has to tell the world, ya we F'd up. If the company is doing good, just save it all for the quarter report.
    fedakd likes this.
  18. bekkay's Avatar
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    #68  

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    Quote Originally Posted by craigdavid_UK View Post
    Blackberry currenly have 70million users, so assuming only 25% of them buy Z10... It totals 17.5million devices sold already!
    Why exactly do we have to assume that current BB5/6/7 device owners will upgrade to BB10?
    ppeters914, aniym and Etios like this.
  19. berklon's Avatar
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    #69  

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    I think people on this forum should really be prepared for disappointing sales numbers.

    I suspected the reaction to BB10's release would be closer to a yawn than it would be to excitement. Blackberry needed a game changer and BB10 doesn't have it.
    It's certainly a nice device - I'm thinking of picking up one myself... but it's not going to do much to get iPhone/Android users to switch over - at least not in substantial numbers.
    The Z10 would've made a much bigger impact a year ago - today it's middle-of-the-road hardware with a small app selection.

    The idea that because there are 70 million BB users is supposed to translate to XX% of them upgrading to BB10 is unrealistic. BB7 and earlier users are tempted by iPhones/Androids just as much as any current iPhone/Android users are tempted to upgrade to a new iPhone/Android device.

    Today HTC unveiled a pretty solid looking phone. This and the soon-to-be-announced Galaxy IV will make it even tougher for BB10.

    Sadly, I don't think BB10's release in the US will make THAT big a difference overall. It will boost the numbers, but not enough to make that big a difference.

    It's weird to say this so soon after the Z10 has been released (and even before it's released in the US) but Blackberry better have another device to release soon (and I'm not talking about the Q10 either). They need a Quad-Core 4.5" 1080p phone and some more apps to go with it - if they want to grab some attention.

    If Blackberry are to survive, they finally need to license out BB10 to other manufacturers (ie. Lenovo). It's their only hope.
    brianatbb likes this.
  20. BThunderW's Avatar
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    I was agreeing with you until "need a Quad-Core 4.5" 1080p". That's such BS. Most consumers do not care about quad-core vs dual-core. In fact, most techie guys I speak with do not want a quad core phone as it draws a lot more power and isn't much faster for everyday tasks. Second the 1080p issue has been beat to death. Just drop it, nobody wants 1080p on their phone. The current size of the Z10 IS PERFECT. My Thumb just reaches the opposite corner of the screen, any bigger and it will no longer be a single-handed phone. You want a quad-core, 4.5" go buy a Samsung.

    Quote Originally Posted by berklon View Post
    I think people on this forum should really be prepared for disappointing sales numbers.

    I suspected the reaction to BB10's release would be closer to a yawn than it would be to excitement. Blackberry needed a game changer and BB10 doesn't have it.
    It's certainly a nice device - I'm thinking of picking up one myself... but it's not going to do much to get iPhone/Android users to switch over - at least not in substantial numbers.
    The Z10 would've made a much bigger impact a year ago - today it's middle-of-the-road hardware with a small app selection.

    The idea that because there are 70 million BB users is supposed to translate to XX% of them upgrading to BB10 is unrealistic. BB7 and earlier users are tempted by iPhones/Androids just as much as any current iPhone/Android users are tempted to upgrade to a new iPhone/Android device.

    Today HTC unveiled a pretty solid looking phone. This and the soon-to-be-announced Galaxy IV will make it even tougher for BB10.

    Sadly, I don't think BB10's release in the US will make THAT big a difference overall. It will boost the numbers, but not enough to make that big a difference.

    It's weird to say this so soon after the Z10 has been released (and even before it's released in the US) but Blackberry better have another device to release soon (and I'm not talking about the Q10 either). They need a Quad-Core 4.5" 1080p phone and some more apps to go with it - if they want to grab some attention.

    If Blackberry are to survive, they finally need to license out BB10 to other manufacturers (ie. Lenovo). It's their only hope.
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  21. lawguyman's Avatar
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    #71  

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunderbuck View Post
    Actually, this is probably part of the reason WHY they're holding off on the US launch.

    I've suggested many times that "carrier testing" is a red herring, and I think it is. It isn't that big an issue with other handsets, and the Z10 uses hardware that's already out there (it's extremely similar to both a Galaxy SIII and the Nokia 920). The delay is deliberate, and it may well be because of agreement between BB and the carriers.

    1) As I've said in (many) other threads, the delay allows the US carriers to gauge sales and consumer response in "friendly" markets, and use that knowledge to plan their own marketing and ordering.
    2) As has been suggested by others, the delay gets hundreds of thousands of units into the market and allows for considerable user validation to allow for bug fixes/updates before the US launch.
    3) It keeps US sales out of Q1 reports. I can think of two reasons why this would be worth doing for BB: first, it allows them to manage expectations and go into the US market being able to claim success elsewhere. Second, it gives them ALL OF Q2 to sell in the US without having to report numbers; easier to maintain momentum and the suggestion the phone is a hit.

    Now, in making this decision, they have to pay the price of scary news items like this one. Canaccord was absolutely correct in revising its sales estimates; they had to.

    Fingers crossed and hope this works.
    I hope that you're right but I fear that you are wrong. I feel that the US carriers have set BlackBerry up to fail here.

    Why do I feel this way? Because I think that most people here in the states believe that BlackBerry is dead and Windows Phone is the Number 3 ecosystem (even if no one wants to buy a Windows Phone). Evidence that BlackBerry is not dead (such as a really good Z10 and excitement in other markets) is explained away.

    Plus, it sure seems that Blackberry wanted to launch in the US earlier (Superbowl Ad, New York launch, US Media Blitz). The fact that it has not happened that way suggests that something is wrong.
    undone likes this.
  22. brianatbb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunderbuck View Post
    And you'd be wrong. The UK has triple the population that Canada does.
    Make that a little under double the population of Canada.
    Acer Asprie S755-6832, Playbook, Samsung SII HD LTE, HTC One v
  23. berklon's Avatar
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    #73  

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    Quote Originally Posted by BThunderW View Post
    I was agreeing with you until "need a Quad-Core 4.5" 1080p". That's such BS. Most consumers do not care about quad-core vs dual-core. In fact, most techie guys I speak with do not want a quad core phone as it draws a lot more power and isn't much faster for everyday tasks. Second the 1080p issue has been beat to death. Just drop it, nobody wants 1080p on their phone. The current size of the Z10 IS PERFECT. My Thumb just reaches the opposite corner of the screen, any bigger and it will no longer be a single-handed phone. You want a quad-core, 4.5" go buy a Samsung.
    In response to the bolded part... yep, that's exactly what people will do - they'll buy a Samsung. The stance of "you want xxxx, then buy it from someone else" isn't exactly a good business strategy.

    I don't care about quad-core or 1080p on a phone... it doesn't mean others wont.
    You think 4.2" screen is the perfect size? Lots of people purchased a Galaxy 3... and a Galaxy Note. So what's good for you, isn't obviously good for others.

    What happens when (not if, but when) Samsung's latest quad-core 1080p phone sells like hotcakes? Just ignore it? Is Blackberry destined to play the "me too" game and always falling behind instead of keeping pace with the competition? The epitaph for Blackberry may as well be "too little, too late".

    It's simple... people want apps, specs, sizes and all sorts of choices. Samsung's learned that.
  24. mikeycollins13's Avatar
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    #74  

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    Quote Originally Posted by berklon View Post
    I think people on this forum should really be prepared for disappointing sales numbers.

    I suspected the reaction to BB10's release would be closer to a yawn than it would be to excitement. Blackberry needed a game changer and BB10 doesn't have it.
    It's certainly a nice device - I'm thinking of picking up one myself... but it's not going to do much to get iPhone/Android users to switch over - at least not in substantial numbers.
    The Z10 would've made a much bigger impact a year ago - today it's middle-of-the-road hardware with a small app selection.

    The idea that because there are 70 million BB users is supposed to translate to XX% of them upgrading to BB10 is unrealistic. BB7 and earlier users are tempted by iPhones/Androids just as much as any current iPhone/Android users are tempted to upgrade to a new iPhone/Android device.

    Today HTC unveiled a pretty solid looking phone. This and the soon-to-be-announced Galaxy IV will make it even tougher for BB10.

    Sadly, I don't think BB10's release in the US will make THAT big a difference overall. It will boost the numbers, but not enough to make that big a difference.

    It's weird to say this so soon after the Z10 has been released (and even before it's released in the US) but Blackberry better have another device to release soon (and I'm not talking about the Q10 either). They need a Quad-Core 4.5" 1080p phone and some more apps to go with it - if they want to grab some attention.

    If Blackberry are to survive, they finally need to license out BB10 to other manufacturers (ie. Lenovo). It's their only hope.
    Quad core 1080 p on a 4 inch screen. Give me break. The upgrade cycle is broken period. For IPhone and SIII. There will be no reason to buy the 5 s or s4.

    Please, refresh the OS, give people the feeling of something new, but not a snapdragonquad turbo rollsroyce jets . Get real.
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  25. brianatbb's Avatar
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    Techies (who know better) may not always be impressed with quad-core, but consumers are. They reasonably want a phone that can not only handle everything you throw at it today (dual-core) but also what is coming down the pipe over the next year. And since that is a big question mark, they'll gladly take anything they can afford that'll insulate them from any technological issues in that time span. Quad-core is needed in the next BB device (later this year most definitely) or it won't be competitive as a premium device.
    Acer Asprie S755-6832, Playbook, Samsung SII HD LTE, HTC One v
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