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  1. sam_b77's Avatar
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    These guys have a magic eight ball? Or maybe, just maybe they are sitting on some heavy shorts and have directed their research ream to look in BlackBerry with a wink and a nod.....
    Through the Years :2001 Ericsson T29s> Sony Z5> Sony Z7> SE Z600>Moto A760> RAZR V3>Razr V3i>BB 8800>BB 9500 >BB 9800>Bold 9900..RIM Returns with a bang

    Life was much simpler when Apple and Blackberry were just fruits
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  2. lawguyman's Avatar
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    If your estimates include US sales and there are no US sales, don't you have to cut estimates?

    Does 300,000 sound unreasonable?

    This brings into focus the question of why these are not launching in the US.

    Posted via CB10
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  3. adjdudley21's Avatar
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    #4  

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    the delay in the US is the reason... the carriers totally screwed this up...
  4. montyl's Avatar
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    I really wish someone with an ounce of common sense would show me how the US carriers screwed up the release of the BB10 when they have not been given a product by BB to release.
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  5. Marc_Paradise's Avatar
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    There's no delay in the us - as I posted elsewhere there were strong hints from blackberry over the last year that they did not intend to launch first in the US

    Canaccord has been issuing a slow and steady stream of bearish analyses since December. They're just doing what they need to do for their clients. Note that the market has largely ignored this latest from them.
    Try BBSSH, an open source SSH and Telnet client for Blackberry devices.
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    Carriers that launched were definitely conservative in their initial orders for the Z10, couple that with no launch in the US and the sales through number is not looking that good. BlackBerry/RIM's latest quarter (Q4 FY2013) ends on March 2nd. They report on March 28th.
  7. lawguyman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by montyl View Post
    I really wish someone with an ounce of common sense would show me how the US carriers screwed up the release of the BB10 when they have not been given a product by BB to release.
    BlackBerry can only fill orders that it has received. It will not send product to someone who has not ordered it.

    Does this explanation have enough common sense?

    Posted via CB10
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  8. gordo51's Avatar
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    #9  

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    Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued

    Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued - Seeking Alpha

    Any comments on his numbers?
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  9. richardat's Avatar
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #10  

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    Quote Originally Posted by montyl View Post
    I really wish someone with an ounce of common sense would show me how the US carriers screwed up the release of the BB10 when they have not been given a product by BB to release.
    It's not. This is a semantic game played by fanboys who's self-worth is so deeply intertwined wit BB that they cannot admit fault. The solution: blame somebody else, and redefine "fault" if necessary to justify it. The fact is, even in BB's explanation: carrier testing, the "fault" and responsibility still lie with BB. At the same time, if BB is truly so short in Canada and the UK, there is no possible way they could have even begun to supply a US launch, so that's another contradictory dissonance point for the fanatics.

    On the other hand, we can just make up conspiracy fantasies about all the carriers colluding to get either 1.get money out of BB (a really small target for this ploy to say the least) or to 2.take out BB for the sake of....hatred -again...very small target which really doesn't need attacking at this point, not to mention the fact that it is in the carriers interest to have them in the game...and they are putting money into the launch but hey....

    So, indeed, if it is the carriers "fault" (again, vague definition, ultimately this is BB's responsibility - to get out their product in a timely manner......and notably something all the other manufacturers have been able to do with multiple models through the same carriers.), nobody has presented either a plausible reason, nor a rational chain of logic to justify such a judgment.

    PS. Now none of that says it ISN'T the carriers fault...perhaps it's Obama's fault...or Harper's fault....or Jon Secada's fault....there just isn't any reason to believe it at this point.
    Last edited by richardat; 02-19-2013 at 11:48 AM.
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  10. BBThemes's Avatar
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    #11  

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    Quote Originally Posted by richardat View Post
    So, indeed, if it is the carriers "fault" (again, vague definition, ultimately this is BB's responsibility - to get out their product in a timely manner......and notably something all the other manufacturers have been able to do with multiple models through the same carriers.), nobody has presented either a plausible reason, nor a rational chain of logic to justify such a judgment.
    It is the carriers fault, well, its probably easier to describe as not RIM`s fault.

    RIM gave the devices and OS to ALL carriers at the same time, so depending how you look at it, that either makes canada, france, uk, uae and other markets exteremly effecient at doing QA on new phones, or it makes the US more thorough.

    Either way though to say its RIM`s fault would be wrong, as they behaved fairly with all carriers.

    Thorsten said ZED 10. deal with it
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  11. greggebhardt's Avatar
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    #12  

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    Quote Originally Posted by adjdudley21 View Post
    the delay in the US is the reason... the carriers totally screwed this up...
    I do not agree that the carriers screwed this up! I think it is more likely that BB did not have the stock/inventory to introduce the Z10 in the USA.
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  12. richardat's Avatar
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #13  

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    Quote Originally Posted by gordo51 View Post
    Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued

    Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued - Seeking Alpha

    Any comments on his numbers?
    Gene...if that's you, you need to go back to math grade 2! (See my comment in your other thread.....thanks for spamming this one though! LOL)
  13. greggebhardt's Avatar
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    #14  

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    Quote Originally Posted by lawguyman View Post
    BlackBerry can only fill orders that it has received. It will not send product to someone who has not ordered it.

    Does this explanation have enough common sense?

    Posted via CB10
    No it make no sense. You and I do not know what a carrier like AT&T ordered. So your statement is false. I am betting that AT&T put their orders for the Z10 long, long ago. The carriers are not all jumping to Blackberry's command anymore as they are a very small part of their user base. My friends who are higher up in AT&T says the BB introduction at AT&T will not be a big deal in comparison to other new hardware releases as the number are just not there. Blackberry is not what it used to be and they are going to have to fight their way back to relevance!
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  14. sentimentGX4's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gordo51 View Post
    Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued

    Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued - Seeking Alpha

    Any comments on his numbers?
    Anyone can write for Seeking Alpha. It is a user generated news source with rather low quality control. Columnists frequently misstate facts and details on things that can easily be confirmed. For things like phone sales or revenue projections that can't be confirmed, it is completely useless. Any columnists' projections, bullish or bearish, are not even credible enough to write a response to.

    P.S. I am a regular Seeking Alpha reader so I know this from firsthand experience.
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  15. Im Mo Green's Avatar
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    he cut his 2014 bb10 estimate to just under 14million units.
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  16. lnichols's Avatar
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    Given the number of people that are posting here that their pre-orders still haven't been filled in launched markets, the general lack of product available, and the delay in the US caused by big name apps that are committed but not there yet (yes the phones are tested, FCC approved, and you will see them and the big apps launch simultaneously, and probably an update and you guys will still blame carrier testing), can you really believe that sales numbers won't be revised? Poorly executed launch with a product that could have moved lots of units quickly. That combined with the HTC One being availalble in Mid March with vastly superior specs and likely a similar price tag, followed up by the SGS4 launch event in Mid March and release of likely mid April again with superior specs and similar price, and it is a perfect storm against BlackBerry Z10 sales both in the US and worldwide. They may keep the die hards from leaving, but it will become significantly harder to win back customers lost without providing value with the phone.
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  17. aniym's Avatar
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    The report is saying 300,000 units shipped worldwide for the month of February 2013. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me at all. It has only shipped in a number of markets, and has yet to ship in huge ones like the US. As for whose "fault" it was, it was BBRY's. They consciously made the decision to launch in the US later, and only they know why. As a frame of reference, Nokia's Lumia 920 US launch was also delayed, with no one really being sure when exactly in November it would launch, what the price would be, etc. Nokia also admitted problems in ramping up production of the L920 and the early reports of it being sold out were due to low inventories distributed to carriers. Sound familiar?
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  18. md03wx's Avatar
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    #19  

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    Quote Originally Posted by gordo51 View Post
    Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued

    Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued - Seeking Alpha

    Any comments on his numbers?
    Doesn't seem to account for the fact that to get the kind of numbers they did with BBOS7 (and below) they had to sell units below cost (some low margin units to begin with ... i.e. Curve). I don't think its reasonable to get the market share he is predicting (even on worse case scenario) on higher margin Z10s & Q10s.
  19. richardat's Avatar
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #20  

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    Quote Originally Posted by sentimentGX4 View Post
    Anyone can write for Seeking Alpha. It is a user generated news source with rather low quality control. Columnists frequently misstate facts and details on things that can easily be confirmed. For things like phone sales or revenue projections that can't be confirmed, it is completely useless. Any columnists' projections, bullish or bearish, are not even credible enough to write a response to.
    Agreed 100%!!!! The analysts at the big firms - like the one I posted here - make enough mistakes themselves, and are often wrong/inaccurate....they at least have a reputation/job to defend, and justify to their bosses, and to investors......seeking alpha analysts.....yikes.
  20. aniym's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Im Mo Green View Post
    he cut his 2014 bb10 estimate to just 14million units.
    That is slightly higher than Nokia has achieved so far for WP8 devices in the last quarter (2.9 million), which comes out to 11.6 million units annualized, assuming an identical sales rate across all 4 quarters. Sounds reasonable, given BB's higher market share and much larger installed base. Don't forget that BB10 devices like the Z10 will not be affordable for the majority of BB users, who live in developing countries and use low-end BB's from years ago.
  21. richardat's Avatar
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #22  

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    Quote Originally Posted by md03wx View Post
    Doesn't seem to account for the fact that to get the kind of numbers they did with BBOS7 (and below) they had to sell units below cost (some low margin units to begin with ... i.e. Curve). I don't think its reasonable to get the market share he is predicting (even on worse case scenario) on higher margin Z10s & Q10s.
    If it were a big enough hit in the wealthy nations, then it's quite possible...but it certainly is not the worst case scenario! Far from it.
  22. richardat's Avatar
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #23  

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    Quote Originally Posted by greggebhardt View Post
    No it make no sense.
    No. That's your answer right there. Perfect sense: BB wanted to ship, and the phone carriers wanted them, but 46 yr old Joe Ordering (and his equivalent at each carrier), forgot to put in the order on time. Now, they must wait, for the usual processing time....weeks!

    By the way lawguyman.....even in your strange and vague scenario, if the carriers did not want to order the product, that isn't automatically their fault either. We'd have to know why they as a group decided not to order until later, before we could decide that.
  23. chrysaurora's Avatar
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    #24  

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    Quote Originally Posted by aniym View Post
    The report is saying 300,000 units shipped worldwide for the month of February 2013. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me at all. It has only shipped in a number of markets, and has yet to ship in huge ones like the US.
    My guess is:
    • Feb sales for Canada ~ 75,000
    • Feb sales for UK ~ 200,000
    • Feb sales for UAE ~ 20,000

    That that's 300,000 right there.
    Plus, in Feb it's also launching in few more EU countries (France, Belgium, Germany, Turkey etc.)
    Plus, in Feb, it's also launching in India in Feb
    So, I think, we are looking at at-least 400,000 sales. At least, 33% more than Canaccord's estimates.
    ***
    Dear BlackBerry,
    1. Fix Contacts App (at the bare minimum: create 2 options - clear all links and disable auto-linking of contacts)
    2. In your advertisement/commercials, please advertise "Android Player" as one of the features (you could show/print Android logo and advertise limited compatibility)
    3. Support Google Play / Google APIs in Android Player so Google Now, Maps, Hangouts/Voice work flawlessly or convince Google to develop NATIVE apps for BB10.
  24. dbmalloy's Avatar
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    The short sighteness is amazing.... first BB only has to ship and sell a fraction of the devices that Apple and Samsung do to be profitable... that said it does not hurt to have a stellar sales iniitally... it will be at least to the end of the year till we know how many units sold and if BB will survive in its current form... that makes all the analysis a moot point.... as for carriers .... If memories serves... testing devices were provided to the various in OCT 2012.....
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