03-14-13 05:50 PM
- There's no delay in the us - as I posted elsewhere there were strong hints from blackberry over the last year that they did not intend to launch first in the US
Canaccord has been issuing a slow and steady stream of bearish analyses since December. They're just doing what they need to do for their clients. Note that the market has largely ignored this latest from them.02-19-13 12:09 PMLike 6
- Carriers that launched were definitely conservative in their initial orders for the Z10, couple that with no launch in the US and the sales through number is not looking that good. BlackBerry/RIM's latest quarter (Q4 FY2013) ends on March 2nd. They report on March 28th.02-19-13 12:09 PM
Does this explanation have enough common sense?
Posted via CB1002-19-13 12:10 PMLike 7
- Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued
Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued - Seeking Alpha
Any comments on his numbers?02-19-13 12:14 PM
On the other hand, we can just make up conspiracy fantasies about all the carriers colluding to get either 1.get money out of BB (a really small target for this ploy to say the least) or to 2.take out BB for the sake of....hatred -again...very small target which really doesn't need attacking at this point, not to mention the fact that it is in the carriers interest to have them in the game...and they are putting money into the launch but hey....
So, indeed, if it is the carriers "fault" (again, vague definition, ultimately this is BB's responsibility - to get out their product in a timely manner......and notably something all the other manufacturers have been able to do with multiple models through the same carriers.), nobody has presented either a plausible reason, nor a rational chain of logic to justify such a judgment.
PS. Now none of that says it ISN'T the carriers fault...perhaps it's Obama's fault...or Harper's fault....or Jon Secada's fault....there just isn't any reason to believe it at this point.
Last edited by richardat; 02-19-13 at 12:48 PM.02-19-13 12:26 PMLike 9
- So, indeed, if it is the carriers "fault" (again, vague definition, ultimately this is BB's responsibility - to get out their product in a timely manner......and notably something all the other manufacturers have been able to do with multiple models through the same carriers.), nobody has presented either a plausible reason, nor a rational chain of logic to justify such a judgment.
RIM gave the devices and OS to ALL carriers at the same time, so depending how you look at it, that either makes canada, france, uk, uae and other markets exteremly effecient at doing QA on new phones, or it makes the US more thorough.
Either way though to say its RIM`s fault would be wrong, as they behaved fairly with all carriers.02-19-13 12:44 PMLike 6
- 02-19-13 12:44 PMLike 4
- 02-19-13 12:44 PM
- 02-19-13 12:51 PM
P.S. I am a regular Seeking Alpha reader so I know this from firsthand experience.02-19-13 12:59 PMLike 4
- Given the number of people that are posting here that their pre-orders still haven't been filled in launched markets, the general lack of product available, and the delay in the US caused by big name apps that are committed but not there yet (yes the phones are tested, FCC approved, and you will see them and the big apps launch simultaneously, and probably an update and you guys will still blame carrier testing), can you really believe that sales numbers won't be revised? Poorly executed launch with a product that could have moved lots of units quickly. That combined with the HTC One being availalble in Mid March with vastly superior specs and likely a similar price tag, followed up by the SGS4 launch event in Mid March and release of likely mid April again with superior specs and similar price, and it is a perfect storm against BlackBerry Z10 sales both in the US and worldwide. They may keep the die hards from leaving, but it will become significantly harder to win back customers lost without providing value with the phone.02-19-13 01:01 PMLike 3
- The report is saying 300,000 units shipped worldwide for the month of February 2013. That doesn't sound unreasonable to me at all. It has only shipped in a number of markets, and has yet to ship in huge ones like the US. As for whose "fault" it was, it was BBRY's. They consciously made the decision to launch in the US later, and only they know why. As a frame of reference, Nokia's Lumia 920 US launch was also delayed, with no one really being sure when exactly in November it would launch, what the price would be, etc. Nokia also admitted problems in ramping up production of the L920 and the early reports of it being sold out were due to low inventories distributed to carriers. Sound familiar?02-19-13 01:02 PM
- 02-19-13 01:03 PM
- Anyone can write for Seeking Alpha. It is a user generated news source with rather low quality control. Columnists frequently misstate facts and details on things that can easily be confirmed. For things like phone sales or revenue projections that can't be confirmed, it is completely useless. Any columnists' projections, bullish or bearish, are not even credible enough to write a response to.02-19-13 01:03 PM
- 02-19-13 01:05 PM
- Doesn't seem to account for the fact that to get the kind of numbers they did with BBOS7 (and below) they had to sell units below cost (some low margin units to begin with ... i.e. Curve). I don't think its reasonable to get the market share he is predicting (even on worse case scenario) on higher margin Z10s & Q10s.02-19-13 01:06 PM
By the way lawguyman.....even in your strange and vague scenario, if the carriers did not want to order the product, that isn't automatically their fault either. We'd have to know why they as a group decided not to order until later, before we could decide that.02-19-13 01:13 PM
- Feb sales for Canada ~ 75,000
- Feb sales for UK ~ 200,000
- Feb sales for UAE ~ 20,000
That that's 300,000 right there.
Plus, in Feb it's also launching in few more EU countries (France, Belgium, Germany, Turkey etc.)
Plus, in Feb, it's also launching in India in Feb
So, I think, we are looking at at-least 400,000 sales. At least, 33% more than Canaccord's estimates.02-19-13 01:15 PM
- The short sighteness is amazing.... first BB only has to ship and sell a fraction of the devices that Apple and Samsung do to be profitable... that said it does not hurt to have a stellar sales iniitally... it will be at least to the end of the year till we know how many units sold and if BB will survive in its current form... that makes all the analysis a moot point.... as for carriers .... If memories serves... testing devices were provided to the various in OCT 2012.....02-19-13 01:28 PM
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