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  1. kill_9's Avatar
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    #26  

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    Quote Originally Posted by RubberChicken76 View Post
    Your source for the size of RIM's production run? Not a journalist or analysts guess, but is there actually one from RIM?



    Can you provide data on the gross margins of these plans? What is the service revenue they receive, less the costs of providing?
    If I recall there was an article on this website about a production run of 1.5 million BlackBerry PlayBooks. There was much debate about the production run volume on this forum as well.

    The wireless carriers pay a small portion of the BIS and BES data plan fee collected from their subscribers and remit payment to Research In Motion. I doubt the fee paid to RIM exceeds USD5.00/CAD5.00 per month per subscriber for the BIS and BES subscribers. The fee submitted for the BlackBerry Social Plans are certainly less than USD5.00/CAD5.00.
  2. Zarpan's Avatar
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    One thing I'm curious about is how much channel inventory is left. Over the last 5 quarters it looks like RIM's sell-through has exceeded shipments by 10 million.

    I'd figure that even though old inventory may be drawn down as the BB10 launch approaches, there is a good chance that shipments and sell-through will be a lot closer this quarter.
  3. Superfly_FR's Avatar

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    #28  

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    Soon we'll learn officially the price RIM will sell L-series to carriers.
    O4f cour5e, it's quite impOssibl€ to know it now, it's a secret (out of taxes)
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    #29  

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    After watching my shares increase almost two dollars, I just sold mine and will wait to see how the market treats RIM. It is not just RIM but also the buffoonery of Washington! Any "deal" they make will be bad for the people and they will continue to spend till they day they go belly up! I would rather go off the cliff as it would stop the spending. It is really our government that is scared of the cliff as they would have to get smaller!
  5. bk1022's Avatar
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    #30  

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    The EPS number, assuming it is close, should have minimal impact either way.

    The big number will be subscriber base. RIM's future is the emerging market. They will be looking to get affluent customers in markets where they are not considered passé and this is identifiable by looking for markets where RIM is increasing its numbers. I have not seen one analysis where BB10 have an immediate impact on increasing subscribers in North America, and have read even Europeans may not be attracted to BB10 at premium price points. This leaves only Asian ans developing markets.

    My assumption is that if subscribers hold or increase then not a whole lot will happen to the stock but if subscribers fall there could be a shock to the stock price.
  6. RubberChicken76's Avatar
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    #31  

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    Quote Originally Posted by BB9700CA View Post
    If I recall there was an article on this website about a production run of 1.5 million BlackBerry PlayBooks. There was much debate about the production run volume on this forum as well.
    Yes - I imagine because someone speculated what the production run was, others assumed it was 'fact' and away we went from there.

    The wireless carriers pay a small portion of the BIS and BES data plan fee collected from their subscribers and remit payment to Research In Motion.
    I'm familiar with that. What I'm suggesting we not do is make assumptions about the BIS social plans and their impact to profitability without knowing what the gross margin is on that.

    I doubt the fee paid to RIM exceeds USD5.00/CAD5.00 per month per subscriber for the BIS and BES subscribers. The fee submitted for the BlackBerry Social Plans are certainly less than USD5.00/CAD5.00.
    That's all well and good, but without knowing the corresponding cost to deliver the Social plans, I would not presume to make assessments about their impact to profitability.

    Just saying.

    There's a lot of 'assumptions' and 'guesses' presented as 'facts' in these forums.
  7. RubberChicken76's Avatar
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    #32  

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    Quote Originally Posted by bk1022 View Post
    even Europeans may not be attracted to BB10 at premium price points.
    I have trouble with "Europeans" being treated as one group and one market. It's a very populous area with many different countries that have different levels of affinity for "BlackBerry". Just saying.
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    #33  

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarpan View Post
    One thing I'm curious about is how much channel inventory is left. Over the last 5 quarters it looks like RIM's sell-through has exceeded shipments by 10 million.

    I'd figure that even though old inventory may be drawn down as the BB10 launch approaches, there is a good chance that shipments and sell-through will be a lot closer this quarter.
    I for one think that analysts are underestimating RIM's shipments, as you point out RIM has deliberately shipped less phone than it sold, to as much as 3 million units last quarter alone. We could see shipments go up QonQ as carriers will need to replenish their inventory.
  9. 1REDRUM's Avatar
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    #34  

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    Number of units sold is roughly the same as last quarter...which is not good considering there should be a build up for the Christmas season but expected for an end of life product which is what BB OS7 has been for some time.
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    #35  

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    Quote Originally Posted by 1REDRUM View Post
    Number of units sold is roughly the same as last quarter...which is not good considering there should be a build up for the Christmas season but expected for an end of life product which is what BB OS7 has been for some time.
    You make no sense.
  11. Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes's Avatar
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    #36  

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    Quote Originally Posted by 1REDRUM View Post
    Number of units sold is roughly the same as last quarter...which is not good considering there should be a build up for the Christmas season but expected for an end of life product which is what BB OS7 has been for some time.
    My understanding is that RIM still plans to offer bb7 devices even after bb10 launch. Therefore bb7 is not end of life.
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  12. Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes's Avatar
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    #37  

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    Quote Originally Posted by 1REDRUM View Post
    Number of units sold is roughly the same as last quarter...which is not good considering there should be a build up for the Christmas season but expected for an end of life product which is what BB OS7 has been for some time.
    My understanding is that RIM still plans to offer bb7 devices even after bb10 launch. Therefore bb7 is not end of life.
    Phones: Nokia 5110>Nokia 3360>Siemens C56>Moto RAZR>LG Chocolate>Pearl 8100>Bold 9000 >Pearl 9100 + Bold 9900 > iPhone 4S + Z10 + Bold 9000
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  13. RubberChicken76's Avatar
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    #38  

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    Quote Originally Posted by koolrosh View Post
    I for one think that analysts are underestimating RIM's shipments, as you point out RIM has deliberately shipped less phone than it sold, to as much as 3 million units last quarter alone. We could see shipments go up QonQ as carriers will need to replenish their inventory.
    I don't know if's "deliberate" as some channels seemed to have a glut of inventory and therefore some carriers began stocking less new stuff. One of the points raised on the last two calls was that carriers were stocking less than before too. I'm thinking the shipments and sell-through will be closer this quarter than the past few.
  14. Superfly_FR's Avatar

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    #39  

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    Quote Originally Posted by RubberChicken76 View Post
    I have trouble with "Europeans" being treated as one group and one market. It's a very populous area with many different countries that have different levels of affinity for "BlackBerry". Just saying.
    Correct. As an example, Spain, witch is under high crisis pressure, is the most equipped and growing market, while Germany is still late (under 50% equip.)
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  15. silversun10's Avatar
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    #40  
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    #41  

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    what do you guys think will be the results of tomorrows quarterly results? negative or positive(beat expectations)? if you think its negative what do u think the price will drop to? & vice versa.

    im excited for tomm
  17. Thunderbuck's Avatar

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    #42  

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    Quote Originally Posted by surreyjack71 View Post
    what do you guys think will be the results of tomorrows quarterly results? negative or positive(beat expectations)? if you think its negative what do u think the price will drop to? & vice versa.

    im excited for tomm
    I sold my holdings in anticipation of a dip a few weeks ago, only to see it shoot up a couple of bucks. I bought back in, but I'm not going anywhere now.

    I think tomorrow will hold pleasant surprises
  18. omniusovermind's Avatar
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    #43  

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    this is a great thread for my new sig!
    Last edited by omniusovermind; 12-20-2012 at 02:05 AM.
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  19. bk1022's Avatar
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    #44  

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    Quote Originally Posted by surreyjack71 View Post
    what do you guys think will be the results of tomorrows quarterly results? negative or positive(beat expectations)? if you think its negative what do u think the price will drop to? & vice versa.

    im excited for tomm
    Here is my humble prediction. Loss of up 1M net subscribers to flat. EPS at low end of estimates, -30c/shr. Negative cashflow for the quarter largely due to manufacturing challenges and labour termination costs. Everything else will be stable and predictable.

    Of course I know nothing. It is just a stab in the dark. It is also possible the world will end.
  20. silversun10's Avatar
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    Globe says RIM releases Q3 results today

    2012-12-20 08:26 ET - In the News

    The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday edition Research in Motion reports third-quarter results today, the last time the market will get a peek into RIM's financials before it releases its much anticipated new line of smart phones in the new year. A Canadian Press dispatch to The Globe says analysts will closely be watching the company's cash volume and subscriber numbers after the BlackBerry-maker surprised in the last quarter with better-than-expected numbers on both fronts. "We want to see their cash balance more or less unchanged quarter over quarter. They're going to need all that ammunition to promote the BlackBerry 10 globally when they launch it," said National Bank analyst Kris Thompson. On Jan. 30, the company will unveil a new line of smart phones running its latest operating system. RIM has already said it expects to report an operating loss in the third quarter as it works through the transition to its next generation of BlackBerry smart phones and completes its cost-reduction plan. Mr. Thompson said he expects to see subscribers fall by about a million, but he admits that with RIM "blowing out their inventory," that number could rise instead. RIM's shares closed at $13.49, up two cents.
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