[MoolahMitch]

A report from Kantar shows BlackBerry devices have a marketshare of 1.6% in the US, mainly losing out to iPhone 5:

The share price has taken a 7% hit as of writing this and will probably hit lower so looks like a good buying opportunity this week.

RIM Tumbles After BlackBerry

[Andrew4life]

Well, I don't know how many people have smartphones but lets say 1/4 of the US has smartphones. = 80,000,000 smartphones with 1.6% is 1,280,000.
The US market is definitely seeming smaller and smaller compared to the global market.

[Andrew4life]

Well, I don't know how many people have smartphones but lets say 1/4 of the US has smartphones. = 80,000,000 smartphones with 1.6% is 1,280,000.
The US market is definitely seeming smaller and smaller compared to the global market.

[undone]

I hate reports....always half the information. I'd like to see how many new smart phones user where changed over from feature phones. If the base increases and BB devices are still maintaining (not growing) there projected sales, yea RIM will see a decrease in there active percent of the pie.

[Superfly_FR]

+1 undone. Don't really care about market penetration. What matters is the subscribers base. Keep it or, better, raise it and it'll be ok for now.

[dentynefire]

The good news here is that the first BlackBerry released will be the L-Series. People are leaving but there is a BB that can bring them back in 2+ months time. A good way to start the year.

[sleepngbear]

+1 undone. Don't really care about market penetration. What matters is the subscribers base. Keep it or, better, raise it and it'll be ok for now.

This is true for RIM to sustain.

But the hilarious thing about all the day's activity is, this market share they're talking about isn't even penetration -- it's strictly new phone sales. Obviously Apple's sales skyrocketed because of the iP5. Obviously BB's are falling -- as they have for several quarters now -- because they haven't introduced anything new. I mean, is this really a surprise? What caves have these people been living in the last year that they'd expect anything different? And does this revelation automatically negate the upgrades and positive LONG-TERM outlooks of THREE traditionally bearish anal-cysts this past week? With knee-j3rk reactions like this, it's no wonder the global economy is in the dumper.

This is so good, it just has to be fattening.

[howarmat]

here is a snapshot from the chart by the way. Keep in mind this is just sales for the quarter not total market share i think

[howarmat]

This is true for RIM to sustain.

But the hilarious thing about all the day's activity is, this market share they're talking about isn't even penetration -- it's strictly new phone sales. Obviously Apple's sales skyrocketed because of the iP5. Obviously BB's are falling -- as they have for several quarters now -- because they haven't introduced anything new. I mean, is this really a surprise? What caves have these people been living in the last year that they'd expect anything different? And does this revelation automatically negate the upgrades and positive LONG-TERM outlooks of THREE traditionally bearish anal-cysts this past week? With knee-j3rk reactions like this, it's no wonder the global economy is in the dumper.

This is so good, it just has to be fattening.

The problem i guess is that many of these new phones sales are now locked into a contract. RIM is missing the chance for these people to even consider their product.

[sleepngbear]

The problem i guess is that many of these new phones sales are now locked into a contract. RIM is missing the chance for these people to even consider their product.

Understood. But remember that people are constantly rolling off contract, and there's still a pretty large pool of current feature-phone users who will upgrade when they get around to it. It's not like it's a one-shot deal where these potential buyers are lost forever. Granted probably a lot more of them will hold off renewing for a new iPhone than for a new BB; but in the mean time, we won't see another new iPhone until next fall. And no matter what sales did last quarter, BB10 is still coming Q1 2013, as has been announced for months now. Nothing has changed there, nor has anything suddenly occurred to refute the latest wave of relative bullishness on the potential of BB10. It's all about a sales report that should not have been earth-shattering news to anybody.

Edit: What's almost equally amusing is that Apple stock is also down today.

[notfanboy]

Edit: What's almost equally amusing is that Apple stock is also down today.

Yes both of them are down but one is down by 9% and the other is down by 1%

[skyrocket9]

Yes both of them are down but one is down by 9% and the other is down by 1%

Stocks go down and then they go up, but to be pointing out that another companies stock with a totally different market situation is down is totally irrelevant.

Does it make you feel better?
Guess its the old.... "well their stock is down too.. so there!!1"

[scalemaster34]

Understood. But remember that people are constantly rolling off contract, and there's still a pretty large pool of current feature-phone users who will upgrade when they get around to it. It's not like it's a one-shot deal where these potential buyers are lost forever. Granted probably a lot more of them will hold off renewing for a new iPhone than for a new BB; but in the mean time, we won't see another new iPhone until next fall. And no matter what sales did last quarter, BB10 is still coming Q1 2013, as has been announced for months now. Nothing has changed there, nor has anything suddenly occurred to refute the latest wave of relative bullishness on the potential of BB10. It's all about a sales report that should not have been earth-shattering news to anybody.

Edit: What's almost equally amusing is that Apple stock is also down today.

Afraid that for some it might be a one shot deal.

Once some one has invested in a platform, many will never even cosider something different.

I do agree that these sales figures are what most of use expected for the last few quarters with only old device on the market. But that isn't anyone fault other than RIM.

[undone]

Afraid that for some it might be a one shot deal.

Once some one has invested in a platform, many will never even consider something different.

Personally I think that argument is weak. If that was true, why anyone ever switch anything? That doesn't mean there isn't loyalists, I think it just means a new player/platform really needs to entice loyalists of other brands. A prime example, BB Users leaving.

[silversun10]

i don't know anybody told Steve Jobs everybody had a contract already when he was cooking up his new phones?
and on another note this is a Crackberry forum, so i don't think we need to crack down on a bias in favor of the new Crackberries...

[RubberChicken76]

Personally I think that argument is weak. If that was true, why anyone ever switch anything?.

I agree. Look at how many people jumped from Palms and Razrs to BlackBerrys. How many people jumped from BlackBerrys to iOS and Android. , in my wee circle, I've seen a half dozen people jump from iPhone to Samsung Galaxy in the last few weeks. There are always loyalists, but I think a lot of consumers aren't as loyal as people think.

there are lots of people locked into contracts sure. And lots coming off of contract all the time. And even more that are upgrading.

[BB10CB]

The ones who have invested in ecosystem are fans anyways they wudnt have switched.. These days everyone knows that it's the last thing to get tied down to a smartphone..

Your iphone breaks, no money to buy new iphone.. What's happens to your investment? New amazing phone comes out.. You wanna switch.. You get bored easily and want to frequently buy and sell phones..

Impo 'locked in' is fud. Just when you thought that was over.. Its pure fud.. Your purchases don't disappear if you switch your phone.. You can always switch back..

Contracts I can understand.. For this reason alone rim should take this in consideration while pricing their phones..

[Stewartj1]

I'm sure RIM's subscriber base has grown but since the market size has grown at a faster pace it makes RIM's growth seem less than it would in a slower growing market.

Also, let's nit forget the doom and gloom expectations from last quarter which RIM handily bkew out of the water.

I.e. It's all speculation until the December 20 earnings call.

[southlander]

Geez. I believe it (unfortunately). In the last 2 days 2 of my business associates have shown up with an iphone 5. Apple is taking over completely.

BlackBerry 10 can't come soon enough.

Sent from my BlackBerry 9930 using Tapatalk

[gariac]

The stock moves, and then they write a story to explain the movement. Direction doesn't matter. On any day, you can find a reason for stock to move up or down.


Sent from my BlackBerry 9780 using Tapatalk

[randall2580]

You should read that report there are some interesting tidbits in there. They don't speak about the whole market as much but they do state the percentage of those buying iPhones - a small percentage are first time smartphone users(in the USA). What I found interesting, and a number RIM is going to have to change is 92% of iPhone users expect to replace their iPhone with an iPhone:

The majority of US iPhone 5 sales, 62%, have come from existing Apple owners upgrading to the new device, although Apple has also benefitted from people switching from Android devices (13%), people switching from BlackBerry devices (6%) and a small number of first time smartphone owners.

Sunnebo comments: “Apple has always managed to maintain loyalty levels far above the competition, and this has clearly played a part in driving sales of its new device. An impressive 92% of existing Apple owners in the US said they will choose an iPhone the next time they upgrade. While loyalty is clearly key, it is also important to make sure that new customers are attracted to your brand. With roughly 60% of US iPhone 5 sales coming from existing customers and 40% from new consumers, Apple is achieving this at the moment – a clear sign of the strength of the brand in the US marketplace.”

you can read the whole thing here:

News - Soaring iPhone 5 sales in US knock Android into second place - Kantar Worldpanel

[howarmat]

Understood. But remember that people are constantly rolling off contract, and there's still a pretty large pool of current feature-phone users who will upgrade when they get around to it. It's not like it's a one-shot deal where these potential buyers are lost forever. Granted probably a lot more of them will hold off renewing for a new iPhone than for a new BB; but in the mean time, we won't see another new iPhone until next fall. And no matter what sales did last quarter, BB10 is still coming Q1 2013, as has been announced for months now. Nothing has changed there, nor has anything suddenly occurred to refute the latest wave of relative bullishness on the potential of BB10. It's all about a sales report that should not have been earth-shattering news to anybody.

Edit: What's almost equally amusing is that Apple stock is also down today.

Good point about people coming out of contract, but as someone mentioned its harder to gain new customers after they have some investment in another ecosystem. We all knew sales would be slim when we see them on the 20th. Last quarter i think everyone was shocked at how well they actually did. I was hoping to be surprised again.

[sleepngbear]

Stocks go down and then they go up, but to be pointing out that another companies stock with a totally different market situation is down is totally irrelevant.

Does it make you feel better?
Guess its the old.... "well their stock is down too.. so there!!1"

Yeah, that's it. You got me. Does that make you feel better?

For the record, I found it amusing because it was just announced that Apple was the #1 selling mobile platform in the US in the month of October, which one would expect would give the stock price a nudge, particularly since the antithesis of that is what supposedly drove RIM's price down today. There was no other negative news for Apple that I could find to explain the drop steeper than the rest of the market. So there. Perhaps if I had used the word 'puzzling' instead of 'amusing' you would not have been so inclined to remind me why I spend so much less time in these forums than I once did.

Good point about people coming out of contract, but as someone mentioned its harder to gain new customers after they have some investment in another ecosystem. We all knew sales would be slim when we see them on the 20th. Last quarter i think everyone was shocked at how well they actually did. I was hoping to be surprised again.

I really think these latest market share numbers are simply the result of the recent iPhone 5 launch. I don't think there's anything yet to suggest that BB sales for this quarter will be poorer than expected. As someone noted above, the more significant metric for RIM right now will be BB subs not shrinking before the BB10 launch.

[Roo Zilla]

Well, I don't know how many people have smartphones but lets say 1/4 of the US has smartphones. = 80,000,000 smartphones with 1.6% is 1,280,000.
The US market is definitely seeming smaller and smaller compared to the global market.

Worldwide, there's about 1 billion smartphones in use.. About 120 million smartphones are in use in the US. The 1.6% is not reflective of that number, it's reflective of recent sales. Currently, there are probably about 15-17M Blackberries in use in the US. As recently as 18 months, ago, there were 19 million Blackberries in use in the US.

[Zarpan]

BlackBerry's low US market share is old news, so the fall in the share price is either coincidental or as a kneejerk reaction from people may have purchased stock recently and were surprised that the US market share was so low.

Taking a look at the older Kantar reports, BlackBerry's market share in the US were as follows for the various 12 week periods ending:

July 8: 3.7%
Aug 5: 1.5%
Sept 2 : 1.7%
Sept 30: 2.1%
Oct 28: 1.6%

Market share probably varies a bit period to period due to promotions and other factors, but the last time BB's market share was significantly higher than now would have been before mid-May (since that period would have been included in the 12 weeks ending July 8, but not that ending Aug 5. BB's market share has been mostly stable in the US over the 5 1/2 months tracked since that report.