- 01-24-2013, 06:46 PM #26
Keep in mind that although RBC set a low number for the the upcoming year, they raised their price to $19. I just think they're being cautious at this point as to not over expect. I'd venture to say that we'll see 750k sell through by the end of Feb which should boost the numbers for the fiscal quarter, and confidence for the coming year.
- 01-24-2013, 06:47 PM #27
- 01-24-2013, 06:59 PM #30
- 01-24-2013, 07:03 PM #32
1 year target is 18M for "the street" to claim success. 10M would be an acceptable result but considered as mitigated. Over 20M, we have a strong winner here (I mean far ahead of recovery schedule : 3-5 years).
- CrackBerry Abuser
01-24-2013, 07:10 PM #35
- 129 Posts
Guaranteed whatever happens on Jan 30, we are going to see a lot of "RIP RIM" posts everywhere.
- 01-25-2013, 02:24 AM #36
I do agree with you of course that BB10 cannot expect numbers like android or ios, but, the fact is, it is vital they get big numbers. They need a reasonable market share. Long term, it's the only way. The truth is, 10 mil, or even 20 mil, is still a pittance of the market. That means, momentum of all kinds, the public profile, the awareness, the DEVELOPERS, the MONEY also falls behind.
When you are a small player like RIM, you can't come in with tiny expectations, and think it will all work out. You need to make a serious impact, and get a strong foothold, or....you will get squeezed out like a bug.
- 01-25-2013, 09:13 AM #38
Guys, let's keep in mind this is about momentum, not about immediate sales. As most people who upgrade lock into 2 or 3 year contracts with carriers, low numbers in the first year are NOT a big worry. RIM is laying the foundation for the NEXT mobile computing platform, not for just the next year. As people switch over, momentum gains, more big developers support the platform, and eventually (within 2 to 3 years) RIM is up in the 50-100 million mark. This is a long term game here, nothing happens overnight, not for anyone. Microsoft doesn't understand that, they're going short-term, hence WP8 is a flop.
- 01-25-2013, 09:21 AM #39
- The number shipped (6.9 million in last quarter)
- The number of active BlackBerry users (79 million in last quarter)
- The number sold to customers (8.4 million in last quarter)
Usually the first two are in the press release and the last is mentioned in the earnings call. they used to report "net new" BlackBerry subscribers too, but dropped then when it became harder to calculate and none of their competitors were doing it.
- 01-25-2013, 09:54 AM #44
As for Q1 estimates, you have to think that government and enterprise adoption rates would greatly influence the numbers. I guess we'll see soon.
- 01-25-2013, 10:17 AM #45
- 01-25-2013, 10:25 AM #46
- 01-25-2013, 01:12 PM #48
If they are saying an ADDITIONAL 500k in the first month, and 10million units overall, that actually isnt bad for RIM at all. Keep in mind, OS7 devices will still be the go to device in many parts of the world. So ADDING 2.5million units a quarter in sales (avg) cant hurt, and can only help. (near 7mil OS7- devices + 2.5mil BB10 = near 10mil a quarter, so 40mil for the year).~S_A
All views and opinions here are my own, and do not represent any views, opinions, or official communications either actual or implied of my employer.
- 01-25-2013, 06:10 PM #49
OK. These kind of numbers (the iphone numbers OR the RBC numbers) won't work for RIM though. Apple was creating a new smartphone market, and there were 3 differences:
1.no entrenched competitors getting ahead as they were building (it was in fact them surging ahead of non-existent competition)...yes I know RIM was their competition, but as history has shown, RIM really had nothing comparable to offer
2.the app paradigm hadn't become crucial yet...it was the iphone that changed this
3.Apple didn't need phone sales to keep the company alive
Now, if RIM could actually overtake Apple in 2 years, then yes, that would work! Going to need to sell.....geez...a LOT (LOL) more than 10 mil. to do that though ;-)
- 01-25-2013, 06:18 PM #50
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