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  1. theHip's Avatar
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    Default RBC BB10 will sell 500k devices in first Q, 10mil units in 2013

    Positive outlook from RBC. Anyone else think RIM can pull off 10mil units?

    RBC Capital Positive BlackBerry 10 Note - Business Insider
  2. Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes's Avatar
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    Isn't that *not* a lot?
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  3. knowledge_6's Avatar
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    yah i don't think that's alot! don't they have to sell 18 Million to break even?

    i could be wrong but i thought i read that somewhere...
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    if that is all the better RIM can do they are in for trouble.
    ~Matt
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    Quote Originally Posted by knowledge_6 View Post
    yah i don't think that's alot! don't they have to sell 18 Million to break even?

    i could be wrong but i thought i read that somewhere...
    That's an analyst's guess. Just as this is an analyst's guess
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  6. shlammed's Avatar
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    Depends how you look at it.

    The first iPhone was released on June 29th, 2007 and I believe they sold about 2-3 million units in the remainder of that calendar year.

    10 million in a year for a new platform wouldn't be bad in my eyes. It can catch on after that just like the iPhone did.
  7. q649's Avatar
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    Got to be a typo?

    500k in the first month perhaps, otherwise 10M in 2013 seems a bit far fetched.

    Update: never mind, effectively first month available = entire first quarter
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    Quote Originally Posted by q649 View Post
    Got to be a typo?

    500k in the first month perhaps, otherwise 10M in 2013 seems a bit far fetched.
    If they're going by RIM's fiscal calendar then technically Q1 only has February left.
  9. thekidshop's Avatar
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    How could they only sell 10mill units when they already have stepped up the production of the phone from 500 tho to 1 mill, isn't that reason. To believe that they have a good idea what carrier orders will be?? ie lots
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  10. q649's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shlammed View Post
    If they're going by RIM's fiscal calendar then technically Q1 only has February left.
    Lol, you replied really quickly. Already edited my post.
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    remember, analysts had expectations a little too high for apple, and while apple's performance was great, it didn't reach expectations and stock dropped.
    giving RIM low expectations only helps the stock when RIM doubles the sales expected of them.
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  12. thekidshop's Avatar
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    Just missed shlammed post , so if that true 10mill by the end of Feb. That would be amazing....
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    Quote Originally Posted by thekidshop View Post
    Just missed shlammed post , so if that true 10mill by the end of Feb. That would be amazing....
    no, 500k by end of February.

    And there's also a difference between shipments and sell through. Not sure which one they're estimating here.

    500k really wouldn't surprise me. After the playbook, etc I would assume many people would be cautious and will take a wait and see approach. i.e. their friends buy it and they end up liking it.

    That's my guess.
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  14. gorang's Avatar
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    10.5 million in 2013 is extremely low expectation IMO, last quarter they sold 6.9 million devices that are over a year old. There is at least 10 million BB users ready to upgrade to BB10 as soon as they have their money in order (feb-jun time). Besides you can not compare first year of iPhone to first year of BB10 because BB is established product and has plenty of upgrade potential, first iPhone was brand new product at the time.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thekidshop View Post
    How could they only sell 10mill units when they already have stepped up the production of the phone from 500 tho to 1 mill, isn't that reason. To believe that they have a good idea what carrier orders will be?? ie lots
    Production of 1 million per month with only 11 months left in the year is roughly 10 million. Sounds about right.
    I'm just amazed how you can step up production so quickly. 1 million a month is 50,000 a day, or 6250 an hour. Assuming it takes an hour per device, they need 6250 people working on these worldwide. Which isn't a lot if you think in terms of the world population. But it's big in terms of the number of people they would have to hire within the few companies RIM has contracts with.
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  17. shlammed's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew4life View Post
    Production of 1 million per month with only 11 months left in the year is roughly 10 million. Sounds about right.
    I'm just amazed how you can step up production so quickly. 1 million a month is 50,000 a day, or 6250 an hour. Assuming it takes an hour per device, they need 6250 people working on these worldwide. Which isn't a lot if you think in terms of the world population. But it's big in terms of the number of people they would have to hire within the few companies RIM has contracts with.
    I'm not sure how much things have changed over the last year but I do know that RIMs larger partner sites could do 50,000 devices a day easily. Some could do 100,000.

    And the reason I say I don't know what the status would be now is because RIM and Celestica went separate ways.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gorang View Post
    10.5 million in 2013 is extremely low expectation IMO, last quarter they sold 6.9 million devices that are over a year old. There is at least 10 million BB users ready to upgrade to BB10 as soon as they have their money in order (feb-jun time). Besides you can not compare first year of iPhone to first year of BB10 because BB is established product and has plenty of upgrade potential, first iPhone was brand new product at the time.
    BB10 isn't an established platform. It's brand new, from scratch. Add that to the amount of flops RIM has had the last few years and you get my point.

    I'm not saying that's how I feel I'm just sympathetic to those who would feel that way.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew4life View Post
    Production of 1 million per month with only 11 months left in the year is roughly 10 million. Sounds about right.
    I'm just amazed how you can step up production so quickly. 1 million a month is 50,000 a day, or 6250 an hour. Assuming it takes an hour per device, they need 6250 people working on these worldwide. Which isn't a lot if you think in terms of the world population. But it's big in terms of the number of people they would have to hire within the few companies RIM has contracts with.
    they have been making devices since sometime in December and i am sure they will be pumping more than 1 a month as long as they get initial strong sales
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  20. gorang's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shlammed View Post
    BB10 isn't an established platform. It's brand new, from scratch. Add that to the amount of flops RIM has had the last few years and you get my point.

    I'm not saying that's how I feel I'm just sympathetic to those who would feel that way.
    I said BB is an established product! And has plenty of upgrade potential! Besides, the amount of flops in last few years should not be taken into account at this point because the management is entirely new and have yet to show if they will flop or deliver.
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    500K units first quarter ? That's nothing !!!

    Let's hope it's not quite that bad. Heck, they're currently selling about 7 million OS7 devices per quarter....and have sold up to 15 million units per quarter units in the past. They should come in at around 10 million (combined OS7 & 10) and maybe be even as high as 15 million, if they are able to keep the excitement going in the marketplace.

    All body parts collectively crossed.....
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    I'm hoping to see more than 500k sold in Q1, though a lot of that depends on intro dates (if T-Mo really ISN'T getting it until the end of March, there's a lot of sales lost right there).

    What I'd been hoping to see was 2mil+ (pref 5mil) by the end of Q1, but I'll grant there's a lot of variables on that, including supply chain.

    I'd also like to think that 10mil for calendar 2013 is a little low.





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    My crystal ball, Carnac the Magnificent, Magic 8 Ball (deluxe) and Mentalo Man all tell me that they will probably sell more than 10 million Z10's this year and another 25-30 million of the other 5 new BB10 devices.
    Registered BB lovers around the globe want their new device and they won't wait until 2014 to buy one.
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  24. playbookster's Avatar
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    My prediction for the first full quarter of BB10 sales. 9.3 million and 3.8 million BB7 devices.
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  25. kevinnugent's Avatar
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    Man, 500k in the first month would be B.A.D. They want to hit the ground running.
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