[glassofpinot]

IDC published Q1 operating system shipment figures and Blackberry's market share slipped from 14% to 6% versus last year.
BB shipped 9.7 million units in 12Q1, compared to 13.8 million in 11Q1.

The total phone market grew dramatically, from 102 millioon to 152 million. Both Android and iOS shipments doubled and their market share increased.
There are several links out there but this one has he most readable chart.
Android, iOS nab 82 percent of smartphone market in Q1 | Apple - CNET News

[kbz1960]

No surprise here. Seems many are waiting for bb10 or moving on for now.

[tchocky77]

That looks like decidedly NEGATIVE growth, if anyone can be bothered to actually do the math...?

[jordandrews90]

lol kind of odd the stock opened 1% higher than yesterday's close

[njblackberry]

"The total phone market grew dramatically, from 102 million to 152 million". No one is waiting for BB 10. They are moving on.

[Superfly_FR]

RIM will basically stand where it is (devices market) until BB10. So if its sales & growth stay @ current levels while the market grows approx 50% ... no surprise its market share drops.

[kraski]

A couple of things to keep in mind. As has been mentioned, there are some waiting for BB10. Also, we can't forget that 11Q4 included Christmas/Hanukkah buying. I think we'd get a clearer picture with 2011 Q1, Q2, and Q3.

[cgk]

Some might be waiting for BB10 but those are going to be tech-nerds, it's not a consideration for the average consumer or a teenager or poor person who might pick up a curve.

[cgk]

A couple of things to keep in mind. As has been mentioned, there are some waiting for BB10. Also, we can't forget that 11Q4 included Christmas/Hanukkah buying. I think we'd get a clearer picture with 2011 Q1, Q2, and Q3.

You've lost me - the figures are the direct Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 ones - which shows that shipments were down 4 million units - so even leaving aside the fact that the share will decrease in a growing market, in absolute terms looking purely at units, this is a pretty terrible result.

[tchocky77]

You've lost me - the figures are the direct Q1 2011 - Q1 2012 ones - which shows that shipments were down 4 million units - so even leaving aside the fact that the share will decrease in a growing market, in absolute terms looking purely at units, this is a pretty terrible result.

Exactly. According to these numbers, shipments are not stable. They are rapidly evaporating.
(I think. Again,....if anyone could be bothered to crunch the numbers.)

[dusdal]

Im curious where these figures came from. RIM doesn't release figures until June 28th and these are based on a cutoff date of June 2nd. So if RIM didn't give them these figures who surmised them?

[randall2580]

There is a reason RIMM decided to stop giving forward guidance. I think this gives you an idea why. It's gonna be like this until the BB10 phones come out and they knew it. This Q and next are going to be similarly disappointing, even if the BB10 makes it out in September.

[glassofpinot]

lol kind of odd the stock opened 1% higher than yesterday's close

The Stock Market is generally efficient and usually not surprised by current events. I expect that these sales trends were already factored into the price recently and the announcement was not a surprise. You would be amazed at what analysts do to get sales and shipping information.

[glassofpinot]

For me there are two big messages here...
1. Yes, RIM slipped but we should have expected that.
2. This is a huge market that is growing larger by leaps. So the bets are bigger - and more important for RIM to get right.

RIM is looking at tomorrows market when placing those bets and executing today - I am sure that they are.

Others can parse out more wisdom from breakdowns of different world markets and product categories...

[cgull]

Its silly that BBOS 10 is dragging while the market has RIMM behind the shed. Get the frikin device out already!!

It doesn't matter if you can see daylight from the depths if you don't have enough air to get to the surface alive. I know BB10 has to hit the mark but sometimes perfection is the enemy of good enough.

Sent from my BlackBerry 9850 using Tapatalk

[Mystic205]

I seriously dont understand why anyone would expect anything other than a bad number? and if these are ticking you off, i strongly suggest you do not look at 2Q12 or 3Q12 either...

[ALToronto]

The average lifecycle of a smartphone is probably around a year, maybe 1.5. There is no reason RIM couldn't recover from this slump if they put out an awesome phone. Big if, I know, but I think they can do it.

[tchocky77]

I seriously dont understand why anyone would expect anything other than a bad number? and if these are ticking you off, i strongly suggest you do not look at 2Q12 or 3Q12 either...

I think it's that the sales have dropped so dramatically. I do not expect RIM to be growing their sales,....but that BB7 would at least hold where they're at,....on the very low end. But it looks like the sales have DROPPED significantly. Like their market share will shrink because the market is growing exponentially, that's no surprise. BUt in the last quarter, much fewer people bought BlackBerries than have in the past.

[mandony]

RIMM stock is hovering around it's three year low: closing about USD11.00. Today it opened about 10.67. Their international sales manager resigned this week; that is good. It is time for fresh blood in the upper management. Notably, RIMM has placed several full page color ads in the NYTimes financial section, promoting business uses. This is good too. They have not abandoned the PB, with substantial recent updates. The PB development is a good test sign for a ready-to-go for the BB10 phone series.

It is no secret why the BB phone sales have dropped vs Android or iPhone. At this time RIMM just does not have the product people demand: large touch screen phones. More and more people are using the smart phones to view internet, and, the present BB phone screens are too small. On the other hand, tethered BB phone<>PB is a great combination to overcome the problem. Unfortunately for RIMM, not enough people have adopted that approach. Perhaps, bad engineering and planning to get the fully working PB to market.

Personally, I am waiting for some 'bad' news to come out leading to another 10% drop in stock price. Then, I plan to purchase a small relatively small amount of stock and wait it out 'til the BB10 takes hold (or not).
.

[glassofpinot]

RIMM stock is hovering around it's three year low: closing about USD11.00. Today it opened about 10.67. Their international sales manager resigned this week; that is good. It is time for fresh blood in the upper management. Notably, RIMM has placed several full page color ads in the NYTimes financial section, promoting business uses. This is good too. They have not abandoned the PB, with substantial recent updates. The PB development is a good test sign for a ready-to-go for the BB10 phone series.

It is no secret why the BB phone sales have dropped vs Android or iPhone. At this time RIMM just does not have the product people demand: large touch screen phones. More and more people are using the smart phones to view internet, and, the present BB phone screens are too small. On the other hand, tethered BB phone<>PB is a great combination to overcome the problem. Unfortunately for RIMM, not enough people have adopted that approach. Perhaps, bad engineering and planning to get the fully working PB to market.

Personally, I am waiting for some 'bad' news to come out leading to another 10% drop in stock price. Then, I plan to purchase a small relatively small amount of stock and wait it out 'til the BB10 takes hold (or not).
.

Wise words !

[BBOttawa]

These figures are estimates, the latest sales from RIM have not been released. Though it wouldn't surprise me to see them around 10 million, as others have said they won't grow sales until they release BB10, and even then it will be at least another quarter until it is fully rolled out.

[tchocky77]

Where do you see that they are estimates? I thought IDC takes their data directly from point-of-sale terminals?

[the_sleuth]

How to avoid the cliff

To keep a platform viable, you need to focus on two tasks: Keep the customer base loyal, and add adjacent product categories.

Today, these words are so prescient from a man who has been through this phase:

Mobile Opportunity: What's really wrong with BlackBerry (and what to do about it)

[tchocky77]

Sleuth,

That is an amazing article. Truly amazing insight into the problem, and surprisingly unique. I shuddered when I read the author's account of the trouble with his wife's Torch. It's hard, for me, to grant that a company deserves to go on when they screw something as simple as contact editing up so tremendously. Having said that, I do hope RIM can create a compelling alternative to Apple/Android/Windows with BB10. But I have grave doubts, and I've seen nothing that supports hope.

[W Hoa]

That article is prescient indeed.

It is worth noting that it was written in October 2010 which coincidentally will achieve its two year anniversary in the same month that we believe RIM will launch its BB 10 phone.