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  1. Homo Erectus's Avatar
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    Default Nokia or Research In Motion: Which Is the Better Rebound Candidate?

    If it were left to just the two of them, the battle for market share, long-term growth, and, yes, even relevance in the mobile marketplace, between Nokia (NYSE: NOK ) and Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM ) heading into 2013 would be one for the ages.

    Alike in many ways, particularly their respective business stages, there are differences Nokia and RIM investors should consider, particularly if you're looking for growth alternatives. As we move into 2013, both Nokia and RIM are poised with new products, new operating systems, and a hiccup or two from industry-leading Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) . Fans of each are ready to usher in the new year.

    The case for RIM
    It's been more than a month since RIM CEO Thorsten Heins announced the news RIM shareholders had been waiting for -- BB10 is coming. Loaded with new and upgraded features, RIM's new OS and phones running BB10 are scheduled for worldwide introduction on Jan. 30.

    To Heins' credit, he's made it clear RIM intends to focus on what it does best -- provide companies and public sector employees with a secure smartphone experience. Yesterday's announcement that RIM will roll out BB10 on a limited basis to some of its biggest corporate and government clients demonstrates that commitment. What the beta-type rollout also does is reinforce how important it was that RIM received FIPS 140-2 certification before BB10 even hits the streets. Earning the FIPS 140-2 certification means BB10 has already met U.S. government security and user guidelines, allowing for its early testing by the public sector. Nice move; and it should give us some real-world feedback on BB10 sooner, as opposed to later.

    As RIM fans are quick to point out, and rightfully so, the company has continued to add to its strong balance sheet, even as sales have slumped. And with more than $2 billion in cash to go along with zero long-term debt, RIM has bought itself plenty of time for the adoption of BB10. Its strong balance sheet, combined with the excitement over BB10, has driven RIM's share price up 51% the past month, for a whopping 92% over the past three quarters.

    The case for Nokia
    Nokia's share price is also up, a cool 42% in the past month. Like RIM, much of the increase is due to a continuous stream of positive news. Among the highlights are that Amazon.com and AT&T both sold out of their allotment of Lumia smartphones early, and quickly. Also, Nokia's entry-level smartphone alternatives shouldn't be ignored. The introduction of its lowest-priced Lumia yet, the 620, costs a mere $249 without subsidies, making the 620 the least expensive smartphone running Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT ) Windows 8 OS. The 620 is being shipped to Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Middle East in January, before rolling out to other markets.

    The recent deal with China Mobile (NYSE: CHL ) to supply its 700 million customers with Nokia's made-for-China Lumia 920T, was good news in and of itself. If early indications prove correct, it appears Nokia has a hit on its hands. According to Amazon.com China, the Lumia 920T is the leading, high-end smartphone in its lineup, and that includes the recently released iPhone 5 from Apple. The only problem? Keeping enough Lumias in stock, something that needs to be addressed, now.

    Looking ahead
    Apple didn't win its most recent court case against Samsung, but it remains the primary competitor to Nokia and RIM in the smartphone industry. Samsung sells more phones worldwide, as does Nokia, but in the high-end, high-margin smartphone market, Apple reigns supreme. Its recent deal to bring back Google (NASDAQ: GOOG ) maps has quelled those concerns.

    As for Google, its own Nexus smartphone, which is selling more than a million units a month, is just the tip of the iceberg. As it continues to assimilate Motorola Mobility, expect to see more Google smartphone offerings. And you can expect the same from Microsoft, too. The surface tablet was its initial foray into mobile computing, but with Windows 8 off and running, a Microsoft phone won't be far behind.

    Both Nokia and RIM are poised for a stellar 2013. Even as Nokia trims non-core businesses, refinances at least part of its debt, and announces early Lumia successes, looking the competitors straight in the smartphone eye has its risks. RIM, as it should be, is attacking the commercial and public sector, a market it could dominate. As for BB10, the upside is tremendous.

    So what separates the two? For me, Nokia offers a few things RIM doesn't. Namely, a $6 billion patent portfolio generating $650 annually, and more to follow now that RIM has lost its patent infringement suit to Nokia. Nokia, too, is in a strong cash position, and concerns regarding the continuation of its 6.4% dividend yield (as voiced by many a Fool) are premature. RIM's stratospheric rise in value also makes me wonder how much of a successful BB10 rollout is already factored into its share price.

    Finally, a $20 RIM stock price in 2013 wouldn't surprise me in the least -- assuming BB10 meets expectations, that is -- but at $4 a share, Nokia offers even more potential upside. Add in that dividend, along with its upside, and the (slight) edge goes to Nokia.

    Nokia, like RIM, has been struggling in a world of Apple and Android smartphones. However, Nokia is making inroads as it banks its future on the next generation of Windows smartphones. Motley Fool analyst Charly Travers has created a new premium report that digs into both the opportunities and risks facing Nokia to help investors decide if the company is a buy or sell. To get started, simply click here now.
  2. baolam86's Avatar
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    i wonder how strong is RIM's patents portfolio compare to Nokia's?
  3. mrfreetruth's Avatar
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    Who's to say that Nokia and RIM are not both take out candidates? as in taking over the market? They are both fresh and new and offer something different from both android and ios. I have finally found my first WP8 user (cousin) who was a SG2 user but was BORD! and wanted something NEW. People want choice and people want new and both fit that mark. I was surprised since I thought he was a big android fan. I even asked about apps and he was like who cares about a million of the same apps? Apps are important but not as important as google and apple want you to believe.
    kbz1960 likes this.
  4. Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes's Avatar
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    WP8 is DOA. They took the easy way out by not creating their own OS. Looks like it wasn't such an easy way now. For the record I have nothing against nokia I have fond memories of my first two cell phones especially my 3360.
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  5. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
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    In my eyes Nokia has already failed.
  6. notfanboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes View Post
    WP8 is DOA. They took the easy way out by not creating their own OS. Looks like it wasn't such an easy way now. For the record I have nothing against nokia I have fond memories of my first two cell phones especially my 3360.
    In a few months time, we are going to get sales estimates for the BB10 devices, and we will read some claim that RIM is DOA. You will probably be first in line to protest this unfair assessment, along with a bunch of rationalizations.

    Truth is, WP8 is far from DOA. In addition to Nokia, Samsung, HTC, and Huawei are coming out with WP8 devices. Just like they did with Android, they are in a better position than RIM to produce low-cost devices for the emerging markets. Microsoft is like the Terminator. It is relentless and doesn't stop. BB10 is on far shakier ground than WP8.
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  7. mrfreetruth's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=notafanboy;7791634]In a few months time, we are going to get sales estimates for the BB10 devices, and we will read some claim that RIM is DOA. You will probably be first in line to protest this unfair assessment, along with a bunch of rationalizations.

    Oh you can see the future? It's obvious you are nothing but a troll and clearly have a hate on with RIM. I do not understand why CB allows people like you to continue to post? I understand you like WP... great then stay on your windows fansite. I can not understand why you people come here to cry
  8. bigbadben10's Avatar
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    Both, I am heavily invested both of them. They will each take market share from the big two and the share price will rise as you have seen. This is not just about phones!
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  9. notfanboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by belfastdispatcher View Post
    In my eyes Nokia has already failed.
    Below are the stock charts for both RIMM and NOK for one year, six months, and one month. They are amazingly similar.
    Because I didn't include the labels, it is difficult to tell which line represents which company. And yet you say that one of them has already failed. Which one has failed then, the red or the blue?





  10. Masahiro's Avatar
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    It's not in our best interest as consumers to see any company "fail", whether it be Nokia or RIM.
    Last edited by Masahiro; 12-19-2012 at 10:49 PM.
    Blatant placeholder signature.
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  11. RubberChicken76's Avatar
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    I think 2013 will be interesting.
  12. RubberChicken76's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by baolam86 View Post
    i wonder how strong is RIM's patents portfolio compare to Nokia's?
    RIM's portfolio is likely worth in the billions, but Nokia has been in the game a lot longer.
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  13. SparkyBC's Avatar
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    WP8 will be another commercial failure.. Microsoft has always sucked in the mobile field this round will be no different..
  14. georg22's Avatar
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    The future will tell. But when i ask people about WP8, some like the UI and some really HATE the UI: Everything is flat, these giant unicolor areas, these giant spaceconsuming headlines... buttons are simple boxes and so on. The UI is a huge proplem. And now Microsoft is trapped in its own design-language and uses it for Windwos 8 too. Thats not good for Microsoft.
  15. RubberChicken76's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by georg22;7792184.
    And now Microsoft is trapped in its own design-language and uses it for Windwos 8 too. Thats not good for Microsoft.
    I'm not sure I buy into a "trapped in their own design language". As the transition of Windows Phone to Windows Mobile, Office 2003 to 2007 and Windows 7 to Windows 8 showed, that company is quite willing to throw out traditional paradigms and start over. Love 'em or hate 'em, you can't really accuse them of being "Same old, same old" lately.
    JeepBB likes this.
  16. Joy1980's Avatar
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    Same situation, different approach. They both changed platforms, RIM did the homegrown thing and Nokia partnered with Microsoft. Windows Phone has been out for at least two years and still hasn't overtaken BB OS for 3rd spot in the US. Nokia has raised the awareness of it but it has not really exploded like some expected.

    Another thing to take into consideration, RIM is in charge of their destiny as far as control over the platform is concerned. Nokia has to wait until Microsoft develops the OS, they can help but they really can't dictate its development.

    I guess time will tell if RIM has the right approach.
  17. Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes's Avatar
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    People seem to forget about WP7. Windows phone 8 is the second generation of the new OS from microsoft. WP8 is the same old lines of code with a totally new UI to make people think its built from the ground up. It would be like comparing bb11 to an OS that is just launching for the first time. WP8 is just a repackaged OS that is being compared to a new OS of blackberry 10 and articles make it sound like they are leaving the start line within months of each other. Not true. If windows was going to overtake they had plenty of time to do it against legacy bb OS...
    Jake Storm likes this.
  18. mikeo007's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes View Post
    People seem to forget about WP7. Windows phone 8 is the second generation of the new OS from microsoft. WP8 is the same old lines of code with a totally new UI to make people think its built from the ground up. It would be like comparing bb11 to an OS that is just launching for the first time. WP8 is just a repackaged OS that is being compared to a new OS of blackberry 10 and articles make it sound like they are leaving the start line within months of each other. Not true. If windows was going to overtake they had plenty of time to do it against legacy bb OS...
    Complete BS.
    WP8 uses an entirely different codebase from WP7.
    7 was based on WinCE, 8 is based on NT.

    I don't care to get into the debate of which platform will die and which will live. There's room for both of them imo.
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  19. RubberChicken76's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikeo007 View Post
    I don't care to get into the debate of which platform will die and which will live. There's room for both of them imo.
    +10!
  20. Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes's Avatar
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    Reserch in motion is a better rebound candidate. They offer a unique experience. Nokia is the same experience as htc and other no name wp8 devices. Its a very clear choice.
  21. Drew808's Avatar
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    Nokia is rumored to have a 10 inch RT tablet due in February. I hope RIM can increase their portfolio to compete with the onslaught of Windows devices that'll pop up next year.

    Nokia reportedly planning Windows RT tablet unveil in February | The Verge
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikeo007 View Post
    Complete BS.
    WP8 uses an entirely different codebase from WP7.
    7 was based on WinCE, 8 is based on NT.

    I don't care to get into the debate of which platform will die and which will live. There's room for both of them imo.
    I really don't think there's room for four os's at once imo...
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    I would have to give the edge to RIM.

    The reason is BlackBerry 10 is aiming at the whole market. RIM isn't fighting for share within an ecosystem, they are an ecosystem. Nokia is competing against Samsung and and HTC within Windows Phone and also those same players Android Phones. Even if Nokia gets the lions share of Windows Phone that's still only a subset of the market. RIM is competing with Windows Phone, Android and iOS. Owning the Platform and being vertically integrated gives RIM the edge long term without a doubt.
  24. badiyee's Avatar
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    Default Nokia or Research In Motion: Which Is the Better Rebound Candidate?

    In the early days of Nokia going WP8, they took potshots at Samsung and HtC (not like Nokia is a stranger to these ambush tactics ala Windows camp' did against Apple).

    Its not like RIM were clear of such faults, but if Nokia had to bite and bark at "same-OS" competitors just to stay relevant, my money's on RIM, on a RIM vs Nokia showdown.

    Sent from my BlackBerry 9800 using Tapatalk
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    For those people who say the Wp8 is DOA. it's clearly not. you guys need to by so immature. Look I'm not against BB10. but you guys need to stop saying that things are DOA.

    if it is DOA. then why has HTC's and Nokia's Windows phones have been on backorder, Sold out?
    Large demand for HTC Windows Phones witnessed in Philippines | Windows Phone Central
    Nokia or Research In Motion: Which Is the Better Rebound Candidate?-htcphilippines.jpg
    Its without a doubt the HTC phones are selling well. How is the Windows phones?. My friend was there he was number 196. and the line was massive. almost everybody that was in that line wanted a HTC Windows phone. Most of them are 8S
    Windows Phone 8S by HTC sold out at Virgin Mobile Canada | Windows Phone Central
    http://www.windowscentral.com/second...sold-out-clove
    Black, cyan Nokia Lumia 920 sold out at AT&T | Windows Phone Central
    Black, cyan Nokia Lumia 920 sold out at AT&T | Windows Phone Central
    Lumia 920 sold out at Expansys UK, tops chart with HTC 8X closely behind | Windows Phone Central

    Look. I'm not Against RIM or BB10. I'll welcome them to the competition. But saying Wp8 is DOA is just idiotic and stupid.
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