More RIM bashing based on guesses about OS7 sales

[Brianflys]

More bashing of RIM based on guesses of sales volume. With BB10 coming later this year, there probably is an effect on current sales at least in North America. Will be interesting to see what RIM reports as far as demand.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/02/09/research-in-motion-canaccord-cuts-ests-on-weak-bb7-sales/?partner=yahootix

[app_Developer]

How this qualify as "bashing"? He's checking actual retail sell-through, that's part of his job as an analyst, right?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but people who are optimistic about RIM expect the big comeback to arrive *after* BB10, right? Not this year. So isn't a weak (calendar) 2012 normal and expected for a company transitioning to a new line?

What are people's expectations for EPS this year? And for FY2013?

[scalemaster34]

Originally Posted by Brianflys

More bashing of RIM based on guesses of sales volume. With BB10 coming later this year, there probably is an effect on current sales at least in North America. Will be interesting to see what RIM reports as far as demand.

Research In Motion: Canaccord Cuts Ests On Weak BB7 Sales - Forbes

I don't think "interesting" is what I use to describe the next few earnings reports...


http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavi...rtner=yahootix

Research In Motion: Canaccord Cuts Ests On Weak BB7 Sales

Things are not getting any better at Research In Motion.

Canaccord Genuity analyst T. Michael Walkley this morning repeated his Hold rating and $15 target on the BlackBerry maker, while trimming his financial estimates due to weak demand for the company’s BlackBerry 7 smartphone lineup.

“Our January checks indicated weak sell-through trends for the new BlackBerry 7 smartphones despite increased marketing efforts,” he writes in a research note. “With very strong share gains for the iPhone 4S, increasingly price competitive Android smartphones, improving Windows smartphones, and strong sales of the affordable 7 inch Amazon Kindle Fire tablet, we anticipate increasing competition across all tiers of RIM’s products in calendar 2012. As a result, we have lowered our February quarter and fiscal 2013 estimates.”

For the February 2012 fiscal year, Walkley now sees profits of $3.37 a share, down from $3.48.

For FY 2013, he goes to $2.10, from $2.50, which puts him well below the Street consensus at $2.93.

RIMM is down 37 cents, or 2.2%, to $16.12.

[app_Developer]

What is RIM's own guidance for FY2012 EPS?

[Brianflys]

Originally Posted by app_Developer

How this qualify as "bashing"? He's checking actual retail sell-through, that's part of his job as an analyst, right?

Where is he checking? Verizon and Best Buy in US, where salespeople push you away from RIM. Slow sales there is a foregone conclusion and would certainly support a prejudice that demand is low, whatever it takes to slam RIM and drive potential customers and stockholders away. Reporting that ensures the "analyst" predictions come true, when the story is inevitably parroted by many other RIM bashing media outlets.

[berklon]

There's no bashing here. If sales are weak, then they're weak. How can this be argued?

And it's like I said on many occasions - RIM can advertise BB7 devices as much as they want, but it's severely behind the competition so it won't make that big a difference in numbers. Their only hope is with the introduction of BB10 devices, but by the time it's released it may already be too late.

[avt123]

Originally Posted by Brianflys

More bashing of RIM based on guesses of sales volume. With BB10 coming later this year, there probably is an effect on current sales at least in North America. Will be interesting to see what RIM reports as far as demand.

Research In Motion: Canaccord Cuts Ests On Weak BB7 Sales - Forbes

BBOS 7 sales we never anything spectacular to begin with, even before more news of BB10 came out.

Sales started shrinking very quickly in the US. RIM use to be competitive in shipments per quarter, but now they didn't even reach half of what Apple or Samsung shipped.

It should be interesting to see the numbers again once BB10 finally comes out.

[Brianflys]

More bashing. OS7 is not severely behind. It is far ahead in many areas and competitve overall.

It is the constant media bashing and baseles statements like that by prior poster which fory sets an expectation and belief that RIM is far behind. It is not based on facts, but rather prejudice. Simple as that.

[app_Developer]

Originally Posted by Brianflys

Where is he checking? Verizon and Best Buy in US, where salespeople push you away from RIM. Slow sales there is a foregone conclusion and would certainly support a prejudice that demand is low, whatever it takes to slam RIM and drive potential customers and stockholders away. Reporting that ensures the "analyst" predictions come true, when the story is inevitably parroted by many other RIM bashing media outlets.

Analysts don't go interview a few salespeople on the floor and then write their report.

Isn't it true that analyst projections for Q3 were right on the mark? If your theory is true that analysts focus only on the US and that skews their forecasts too low, then wouldn't it be the case that RIM should be exceeding the estimates each quarter?

RIM reported numbers very close to the projections for Q3. And RIM themselves projected lower sell-in for Q4 because of weak sell-through in Q3.

So is RIM bashing itself now when it forecast lower sales for this quarter?

And again, if you think the analysts are wrong on this, then what are your estimates for this quarter?

[Economist101]

Originally Posted by Brianflys

More bashing. OS7 is not severely behind. It is far ahead in many areas and competitve overall.

It is the constant media bashing and baseles statements like that by prior poster which fory sets an expectation and belief that RIM is far behind. It is not based on facts, but rather prejudice. Simple as that.

RIM's own guidance was 11-12 million units, so it's not as though sell-through is expected to be good.

[anthogag]

In my experience carrier stores are the number one week link for selling BB phones.

Ex. only 1 in 10 stores that I visited had a working Bold 9900, otherwise it's a dummy phone

In those same stores 9 in 10 will have a working iPhone in it's own display

I have yet to try a working 9810

I'm not surprised at talk of less-than-expected results...the media bashes RIM, you can't try the phone in a store, and salespeople could care less...

[avt123]

Originally Posted by Brianflys

More bashing. OS7 is not severely behind. It is far ahead in many areas and competitve overall.

It is the constant media bashing and baseles statements like that by prior poster which fory sets an expectation and belief that RIM is far behind. It is not based on facts, but rather prejudice. Simple as that.

I never said RIM is far behind. Maybe if you read things with an open mind you would see more clearly. I said their shipments weren't competitive, not their product.

How are these statements baseless? Did you not see RIMs earnings? Did you not read the press releases? Have you not noticed RIMs marketshare going further down?

Seems like these statements aren't baseless, it seems more like you are trying to dodge reality.

RIM will come back, but BB7 is not the platform that will do it. The demand may be high in developing countries, but not in the US market. RIM knows this.

[Economist101]

Originally Posted by anthogag

In my experience carrier stores are the number one week link for selling BB phones.

Ex. only 1 in 10 stores that I visited had a working Bold 9900, otherwise it's a dummy phone

In those same stores 9 in 10 will have a working iPhone in it's own display

I have yet to try a working 9810

I'm not surprised at talk of less-than-expected results...the media bashes RIM, you can't try the phone in a store, and salespeople could care less...

And yet, RIM offers no alternative. Doesn't seem like the smart path to take when you're in trouble as it is.

[Economist101]

Originally Posted by avt123

I never said RIM is far behind. Maybe if you read things with an open mind you would see more clearly. I said their shipments weren't competitive, not their product.

Yeah he doesn't like to talk about sales.

[hootyhoo]

Originally Posted by Economist101

And yet, RIM offers no alternative. Doesn't seem like the smart path to take when you're I trouble as it is.

You don't seem to understand that it is sop for a manufacturer to rely solely on the retailer for their success or failure.