[JMDBERRY]

I'm thinking RIM will have more than 10 million upgrades to the new BB 10 devices within 30 days of launch. If not, it will prolly be due to productivity not being able to keep pace with sales. I believe this to be true since RIM has not really released a device since,....ahhhh, a long time ago. Therefore, sales within the first 30-days will be phenomenal to say the least and that's what RIM needs and wants. Go RIM!

[amjass12]

well im definetely one of them as my upgrade is due on feb 27th 2013... assuming it comes out by that time!! but am really looking forward to that date!!

[peter9477]

I believe you have as much chance of being correct as every other "analyst" who predicts sales numbers, and you probably put just as much work into your analysis as they do too! ;-)

[Ben1232]

"Like hot cakes" is all I'll say.

The fellow in the Vodafone store did say there will be queues outside the store on the first day they're available.

[kingb71]

hope they have enough stock. If there are supply chain delays the whole thing may be DOA

[sf49ers]

buying a device off-contract upon launch although eligible for an upgrade in June

[GTiLeo]

hope they have enough stock. If there are supply chain delays the whole thing may be DOA

don't agree one bit, i think it'll give more of an impression that consumers actually want the product and that its selling out fast. if soemone wants one they won't leave and go for anotehr one, they will wait for what they want.

look at the Lumina 920 i've heard that supply issues keep it being sold out in stores so it seems like its a bit time seller, but at the same tiem no one really knows its just speculation

[bk1022]

How is RIM going to be able to build and distribute 10MM phones in 30 days when a blowout annual sales number starts in the low 20MM range?

[FSeverino]

double digits would be 10, not 10 MILLION... lol

[howarmat]

i dont think it will be that fast, but i can see 10 million sold after 2 quarters being reasonable

[Thunderbuck]

As a shareholder, 10 mil upgrades in the first 30 days would be awesome! I think we'd see the stock up to $80 by the end of the year.

As a real, thinking human being, I'm not holding my breath. Would be absolutely awesome to see, but my gut is telling me we might see 5-8 mil sales by the end of calendar Q1, depending on how quickly the carriers can get units out to customers.

[ChrisRH]

My biggest concern is can they produce the volume needed. Corporations will probably take a significant chunk of the initial order which might make it more difficult to get it at the consumer level. Especially being the beginning of the year when most budgets are nice and fresh. I doubt they have 10 million phones ready for the first month, that kind of volume would make the risk extremely high. I for one am planning on buying one to replace my Bold 9900, just debating what will be easier, in store or via my corporate rep.

[taz323]

I'm thinking RIM will have more than 10 million upgrades to the new BB 10 devices within 30 days of launch. If not, it will prolly be due to productivity not being able to keep pace with sales. I believe this to be true since RIM has not really released a device since,....ahhhh, a long time ago. Therefore, sales within the first 30-days will be phenomenal to say the least and that's what RIM needs and wants. Go RIM!

I will be there and depending on price, with upgrade in hand

[lnichols]

I like the enthusiasm. My only concerns are possibly pricing the device too high. However I do believe there is a lot of pent up demand for a new BlackBerry.

[BitPusher2600]

I like the enthusiasm. My only concerns are possibly pricing the device too high. However I do believe there is a lot of pent up demand for a new BlackBerry.

This would be why someone like myself with probably be sticking with OS7 for a good bit yet, which is just fine since it still counts as an active subscriber which is a number set we always want to see move up for dear ol' RIM.

[alan510]

The availability issue is going to be interesting. While I don't know for sure, I think some of RIM'S biggest customers are governments. Virtually all governments and groups that depend on government funding go on spending sprees toward the end of the fiscal year. So one question is when do fiscal years end? In Canada, it's the end of March. There are reports the Canadian federal government is poised to heavily invest in BB10. I have no knowledge here as to the accuracy of these reports but I do know about the frenzy that can occur at the end of the fiscal year. So the months of February and March could be active for Canadian government purchases for RIM. I also know that the American federal government ends its fiscal year at the end of September.

Any of you know about other countries? And what about corporate fiscal years? They are important as well and will have a big effect on RIM'S sales figures.

[DaedalusIcarusHelios]

I'm not eligible until June, but I'm still hoping there is some way to get a Z10. Maybe I can steal someone else's upgrade at work, or if I could pay a reasonable fee myself (it would be a work phone), I'll do it. If not, I might have to upgrade my wife from her iPhone 4 (she's eligible now). She's been wanting to try out something else, but I don't think she wanted to pay for a new device yet. Maybe after January 30th, I can wow her with how awesome it'll be. The problem though would be that it'd be HER phone and not mine.

[travaz]

There has to be a pretty good number of devices already built and sitting in a warehouse. I am very curious what the initial build number would be. They have to have researched it and have a firm idea about how many they need. If you take the estimates that its 250 to build 10 mil is 250 mil in cash to build. My guess is they would do an initial run of 4 to 5 Mil units.

[Skeevecr]

My biggest concern is can they produce the volume needed. Corporations will probably take a significant chunk of the initial order which might make it more difficult to get it at the consumer level. Especially being the beginning of the year when most budgets are nice and fresh. I doubt they have 10 million phones ready for the first month, that kind of volume would make the risk extremely high. I for one am planning on buying one to replace my Bold 9900, just debating what will be easier, in store or via my corporate rep.

Corporations are probably going to be a much bigger factor in the 2nd quarter of availability onward as most of them are going to want to trial out any new hardware before rolling it out, so that shouldn't be a reason for stock shortages.

[Thunderbuck]

It's safe to say that initial sales are going to be watched VERY carefully. I've come to be very skeptical of "pre-orders sold out!" and "initial production run sold out!", because with JIT you can turn down the tap on your supply chain the second you see orders start to tail off. It's more of a way to manipulate the tech press as much as anything else.

[koolrosh]

Forget 30 days. If RIM can sell 10 million in the first quarter, BB10 will be deemed a success. Current Analyst estimates are 5-6 million BB10 phones in the first quarter, which is very low and I don't think they will have any trouble reaching that.

[Dapper37]

I believe RIM has a real good handle on the Business and government side of things as they are in constant comunication with these entities. The average consumer not as much but the reaserch they have no doubt done by now will give them a fairly acurate number to go by. After that they build a cussion into the initial run and all is well!
If you want a guess... 8 to 10 million in the first full quarter. 3 months

[Superfly_FR]

10% of 80M is 8 million and I believe it's a reasonable target for first full quarter.
If RIM hits 10M, this will be considered as a impressive success, 20 as an incredible success, 30 as a revolution.
While we all expect the launch to be as successful as possible, I believe a slow and regular recovery would be he best track for BB10 devices.
Do not rush anything, especially supply chain. We want rock-solid and shining quality.