I support RIM : I buy shares !

[Superfly_FR]

Originally Posted by dynot

I know I'm gonna get flamed big time for this but I think CB jumped the shark when this thread received 10,000 views and 100 likes.

The notion that buying even a thousand shares will make a difference is insane what with all the institutional investors having significantly more impact on stock prices.

Even more ludricous is sinking your hard earned money into a consumer goods company to "show your support". Do you think RIM (or APPL, or Google) will make your mortgage payment when you are down and out in your luck to show their support for a valued customer? By this logic, I should by stock in BMW, Samsung (TV), & Toshiba (laptop) because I own products made by all these companies.

Want to support RIM? Buy their products. Don't be an irresposible, emotional investor.

For - I think - the very first time, RickRoller was somehow supporting me ... and then you come & ruin ?!?
What he stated is nice & fair.

It's all viral ... if 10% of BB users (7.5 millions) get 5 shares ... it makes 37.5 millions shares. Wouldn't be nor mean "nothing". Of course, I'm aware that it has a tiny chance to occur, I'm not that stupid. Betting $50 is something some of us can do, even if you consider this as lottery : I personally think you have far more chances to retrieve - at least - the amount of your bet ... and maybe a divine "surprise" ... like some bucks to get accessories or ... a PB2 ?

I also note that the poll is still running and, while it was around 30% pros for a while, it's now likely 40% ... this is an interesting trend, isn't it ?

P.S : So far: no bankruptcy (as of date : $15.90).

[Superfly_FR]

Originally Posted by Economist101

Two, RIM's subscriber base is growing, but its profits are falling, and if the "slow growth" is so slow that the company makes a smaller profit each quarter, you get a cratering stock price, a management change and lots of negative coverage.

If economistS are not aware of what the word "investment" means ...
RIM is in a middle of its first historical technical transition, meaning : errors (stock provisioning), extra costs, hiring (have you been around RIM Careers - Jobs at Research In Motion Careers lately ?), promotion, investments (emerging countries = small price phones) ... Resulting naturally in a decreased profitability.
But IF (yet a big if, I dunno) they succeed : ?

P.S : It's my feeling, not a financial speculation I'm not a wise financial guy.

[Economist101]

Originally Posted by Superfly_FR

If economistS are not aware of what the word "investment" means ...
RIM is in a middle of its first historical technical transition, meaning : errors (stock provisioning), extra costs, hiring (have you been around RIM Careers - Jobs at Research In Motion Careers lately ?), promotion, investments (emerging countries = small price phones) ... Resulting naturally in a decreased profitability.
But IF (yet a big if, I dunno) they succeed : ?

P.S : It's my feeling, not a financial speculation I'm not a wise financial guy.

Economists are also aware that companies which lose share like RIM has generally don't get it back. Sony never did. Apple never did. Sega never did. Hertz and Avis never did. MySpace never did. Etc, etc, etc. Anything's possible, but the first step toward a comeback in a market is to stop losing ground, and they haven't done that yet. Apple may be surging a bit in computers now, but there were years of virtually no share gains (despite healthy profitability), and their corporate comeback has been on the success of products that did not exist until 10 YEARS after Steve Jobs returned. To me, the question is which new markets will RIM enter, as history suggests any "comeback" in phones will be minimal.

The bottom line is that if RIM were indeed a healthy investment, it would NOT be trading below book value. Period.

[OMGitworks]

Down another 3.0% today at the open....

[OMGitworks]

Originally Posted by Economist101

Economists are also aware that companies which lose share like RIM has generally don't get it back. Sony never did. Apple never did. Sega never did. Hertz and Avis never did. MySpace never did. Etc, etc, etc. Anything's possible, but the first step toward a comeback in a market is to stop losing ground, and they haven't done that yet. Apple may be surging a bit in computers now, but there were years of virtually no share gains (despite healthy profitability), and their corporate comeback has been on the success of products that did not exist until 10 YEARS after Steve Jobs returned. To me, the question is which new markets will RIM enter, as history suggests any "comeback" in phones will be minimal.

The bottom line is that if RIM were indeed a healthy investment, it would NOT be trading below book value. Period.

Very true. RIMM's real problem is that nobody really wants the OS7 phones as they know the new phones are coming in the next few months (hopefully). Sales will be bad the next 2 quarters. Corporations are migrating to other phones and many employees who are now on the "phone allowance" plan who aren't required to have a BB will jump to an iphone or Andriod phone. Sorry but OS7 isn't going to stack up for most consumers, esp if the Verizon, Best Buy or AT&T employee is pushing another product.

RIMM has created this 6-12 month period where their offerings really are not competitive. Even if BB10 delivers (a big IF) and in a timely manner (another big IF) it may be too late to ever get back market share. Shades of the PB fiasco. They never had much of the consumer market and now that corporations are fixing their costs by giving employee allowances and RIMM doesn't have a great product right now, it is VERY hard to see how they can make up share when they are used to selling phones in hundred or thousand unit increments to IT departments and now have to battle it out consumer/user by user. Their presence in Verizon and AT&T stores isn't going to get it done. Hanging your entire hat on security isn't going to cut it.

[mdarscott]

My financial planner Claret (claret.ca) bought them for me. I wouldn't have trusted myself to do it on my own (too much emotion tied up in BB). But these guys are canny. If they bought RIM it was for sound financial reasons.

[Superfly_FR]

Originally Posted by Economist101

Economists are also aware that companies which lose share like RIM has generally don't get it back. Sony never did. Apple never did. Sega never did. Hertz and Avis never did. MySpace never did. Etc, etc, etc. Anything's possible, but the first step toward a comeback in a market is to stop losing ground, and they haven't done that yet. Apple may be surging a bit in computers now, but there were years of virtually no share gains (despite healthy profitability), and their corporate comeback has been on the success of products that did not exist until 10 YEARS after Steve Jobs returned. To me, the question is which new markets will RIM enter, as history suggests any "comeback" in phones will be minimal.

The bottom line is that if RIM were indeed a healthy investment, it would NOT be trading below book value. Period.

Once again, the dispute can last forever. Loosing % of market while the market is growing in volume and value doesn't mean such as is. The notable difference with some examples you give is that they were loosing money in a mature market while RIM is still profitable and gains new consumers year by year. Being the first is not a goal by itself, this means ... virtually nothing else (wanna talk about G.M ?).
Tablet market, especially in enterprises, is a brand new market, even in N.A or Europe and furthermore (not even born) in -say- 50% of the planet.

RIM is in a middle of an historic change; new product range (tablets), new OS (client), new vertical devices integration capabilities (QNX), new infrastructure management (BES/Fusion/balance), integration of other technologies (MS ActiveSync, office 365) and BYOD efficiency ... pfiouuu (did I missed some ?).

All of this, almost simultaneously and with the higher (expected) level of integration. If they succeed, they've just found the map to the Holly Graal. This is not a "change", this is a "revolution". But you don't seem to read the word "flow" as clear as I understand it ... maybe it's my vision only, I confess ... I wish I could do more than just write opinions here and there ...

P.S: does your conclusion means "if the market says the share is dead, then the share is dead, I won't put a penny" ?

[Economist101]

Originally Posted by Superfly_FR

Once again, the dispute can last forever. Loosing % of market while the market is growing in volume and value doesn't mean such as is. The notable difference with some examples you give is that they were loosing money in a mature market while RIM is still profitable and gains new consumers year by year. Being the first is not a goal by itself, this means ... virtually nothing else (wanna talk about G.M ?).
Tablet market, especially in enterprises, is a brand new market, even in N.A or Europe and furthermore (not even born) in -say- 50% of the planet.

Apple lost ground for years before it lost money, and was in a growing market (unless you're claiming that the PC market was mature in 1985). Hertz has not been in the red since its initial climb, though I'm not sure at what point their market can ever be said to have "matured."

As for GM, it doesn't apply. GM was on a downslope for years, yet it remained the world's largest car maker for almost the entire time, and at no point did its share in any market that mattered fall to the single digits in terms of quarterly sales. Obviously, RIM cannot make similar claims about its business.

As for tablets, it's hard to bet on a product that gets outsold 100 to 1 for any period of time, especially when the product selling the 100 is actually more expensive.

Originally Posted by Superfly_FR

RIM is in a middle of an historic change; new product range (tablets), new OS (client), new vertical devices integration capabilities (QNX), new infrastructure management (BES/Fusion/balance), integration of other technologies (MS ActiveSync, office 365) and BYOD efficiency ... pfiouuu (did I missed some ?).

All of this, almost simultaneously and with the higher (expected) level of integration. If they succeed, they've just found the map to the Holly Graal. This is not a "change", this is a "revolution". But you don't seem to read the word "flow" as clear as I understand it ... maybe it's my vision only, I confess ... I wish I could do more than just write opinions here and there ...

And yet there it is again. "If," as in if the Storm is good, if the Storm2 is good, if the PlayBook is good, etc. The only "if" that matters is this: if you don't replace your own product with something better, someone else will. Apple "replaced" the iPod with the iPhone, and then replaced the iMac with the iPad. Meanwhile, Google entered with Android, and it started poaching RIM's customers, and despite Motorola launching the "Droid" in November 2009 RIM will not be launching its major overhaul (in a phone) until a full 3 years later. How late is this? It will be 2 years behind Windows Phone, and nearly 6(!) years after the iPhone announcement. All I know is, when you're 2 years behind Microsoft, you've got MAJOR problems.

Originally Posted by Superfly_FR

P.S: does your conclusion means "if the market says the share is dead, then the share is dead, I won't put a penny" ?

No, it means when a stock hovers at a price 15% below book value for two months, I don't consider it an investment as much as a market bet on the idea that even a stopped clock is right at least once a day.

[OMGitworks]

Saw on CNBC that Leon Cooperman bought more RIMM. I guess we now know that the momentary stock bump we saw was supported by Prem and Leon doubling down. Once all the bottom fishers are cleaned out I don't see much of a floor under RIMM. For guys who are so brilliant, I think they regret and will live to regret their RIMM purchases.

[Superfly_FR]

Originally Posted by Economist101

And yet there it is again. "If," as in if the Storm is good, if the Storm2 is good, if the PlayBook is good, etc. [...]

THIS.
That's what I claim by writing "I support RIM, I buy share".
I bet these IFs will now turn to reality, especially after I went to Devcon and saw the ones who were exhibiting their ipads on day 1 where amost all using their PB on day 2. If PB was a fail, they wouldn't.
They were whispering words like "yes, nice, cool, great" or (more important) "yes we can do ...". Not a financial analysis, not a bet, just a perception of 1K 2K people (from the most demanding); it wasn't "not bad, could", it was "cool, will".

Edited : not 1K but 2K people @ Devcon ... Europe.

[app_Developer]

Well, so much for my thought that this would bounce around $16-$17 until the next earnings call.

I'm out on a stop that I didn't check this morning. So ends my 2 days as an official RIMM shareholder.

I'll probably sit out until the earnings. Or until they get some outsider on the board.

[Brianflys]

Trolls here having a field day, enjoy...for now. RIM will release on time, with this new organization, and demand will grow for the phones and the PlayBook. Apple will disappoint with there too-little top-late labor audit that causes Product delays and higher prices. They have about topped out and will start a long fall out of favor. Econ-guy is just an opinion and we have have one...

[MartyMcfly]

Sad to see so many people invest without doing the necessary research. People are buying based off emotion instead of using the data that's available to them.


Sent from my IPhone 4s using Tapatalk

[app_Developer]

Originally Posted by Brianflys

Apple will disappoint with there too-little top-late labor audit that causes Product delays and higher prices. They have about topped out and will start a long fall out of favor.

AAPL doesn't have to go down for RIMM to go up, you know.

I know you're long RIMM, are you shorting AAPL, too?

[Brianflys]

Originally Posted by app_Developer

AAPL doesn't have to go down for RIMM to go up, you know.

I know you're long RIMM, are you shorting AAPL, too?

Not short on AAPL. This is a hugely growing market and while AAPL has the lions share of market and profits I believe that will swing back as they make the normal missteps of any large concern. They are having a great run, but things change. Just ask RIM.