[Superfly_FR]

Source of opportunity
We are upgrading Research in Motion (RIMM) to Buy from Neutral, as we see
a positive risk/reward heading into its BlackBerry 10 (BB10) launch on January
30. For the first time in 3 years, we think out-year Street estimates are too low,
as they don’t capture: (1) the ASP lift from BB10; (2) the associated margin
improvement; and (3) the channel inventory fill for BB10. We now assess a
30% chance of success for BB10 given positive early reviews, broad-based
carrier support, attractive features, and interest by carriers and consumers in
broadening the field beyond Android/iOS; this lifts our 12-month price target
to $16 from $9, implying 44% potential upside.
Catalyst
We expect RIM’s results will exceed Street estimates over the next 4
quarters, with our revenue estimates 8% and our quarterly EPS $0.14
above consensus on average. In fact, we now estimate that RIM will turn
profitable in FY14 (Feb) vs. the consensus view of continued losses. The
primary source of upside is our FY14 smartphone ASP estimate of $270,
up 21% yoy vs. the consensus view of roughly flat, as we expect BB10
devices priced at over $400 will drive more than a third of the total volume,
offsetting sharp declines in emerging markets where ASPs are much
lower. We are raising our FY13/14/15 EPS estimates to ($0.99)/$0.20/($0.62)
from ($1.07)/($0.52)/($1.61) on higher ASPs and margins as a result of the
BB10 ramp, partially offset by much lower units in emerging markets.
Valuation
Our price target of $16, now based on a scenario analysis (vs. purely SOTP
prior), assigns 70% probability to our base case, which values RIMM at $10
based on SOTP ($6 in IP, $4 in cash), and 30% to our bull case, which values
it at $31 based on a 10X P/E applied to our bull case CY14 EPS of $3.08.
Key risks
The primary risk is lack of follow-through demand post the BB10 launch.

That primary risk I don't believe
Oh my ... new shoes for a new dance !

[MADBRADNYC]

I likey.
I likey a lot!
Finally, a positive article after all the negative articles people have the need to post here.

[Caymancroc]

Was this news from September? Have a link?

It hasn't traded at 9 in a while so I don't think this is truly "hot". At least I don't think it is hot off the presses that is.

[Superfly_FR]

Was this news from September? Have a link?
It hasn't traded at 9 in a while so I don't think this is truly "hot". At least I don't think it is hot off the presses that is.

No link. G.S issued pdf dated 11-29-2012, thanks to my contacts.

[notfanboy]

To;dr version
70% chance of failure $10
30% chance of success $31
Target price $16

[Superfly_FR]

To;dr version
70% chance of failure $10
30% chance of success $31
Target price $16

Not sure what you mean ... But first line is VERY important. Failure <> Bankrupcy but return to "current" value. Very different from previous Misek's $5 ... very important (to my eyes).

[Double_J75]

Didn't they just announce they bought a load more stock in rimm? Then after they buy it they upgrade to a buy? Won't that generally make the stock go up? Doesn't that seem a little fishy.

Anyway I'm glad it is good news. When it gets back to $21 I will break even

[notfanboy]

Not sure what you mean ... But first line is VERY important. Failure <> Bankrupcy but return to "current" value. Very different from previous Misek's $5 ... very important (to my eyes).

It's nothing I meant, those are numbers straight from the report.

[W Hoa]

BRIEF-Research In Motion U.S.-listed shares up in premarket after Goldman Sachs upgrade

NEW YORK | Thu Nov 29, 2012 7:57am EST

NEW YORK Nov 29 (Reuters) - Research In Motion Ltd : * U.S.-listed shares up 11.7 percent to $12.40 in premarket after Goldman Sachs upgrades to "buy" rating

BRIEF-Research In Motion U.S.-listed shares up in premarket after Goldman Sachs upgrade | Reuters

[timmy t]

The tide is slowly turning. More and more upgrades and positive reports.
Seems 50-50 now. Was 90-10 to the negative side just a couple months ago.
If the consumer community has as much positive feelings, then BlackBerry smartphone usage is about to take off.
Even if 50% of the US consumer community consider the new phones, that will increase their market share considerably.

[dentynefire]

Of course this is all based on what we see now. What will happen if BB10 offers something even better that what we have been shown already?

[pcar]

omg the sky is not falling - why is this HOT! ? Like you're grasping for straws to keep your hope alive. There're be more predictions and reports of stock spikes and spirals. The primary risk stands.

[the_kid_hartford]

CNBC is all over this news......constantly repeating it and saying "many analysts have changed their position on RIM in the last few days"........RIM needs this kind of advertising and marketing.......People need to get interested in what is coming......

[theRock1975]

A goldman sachs upgrade to buy is very significant. Watch the other US analysts upgrade as well. Each upgrade will give the stocks another boost and pressure the shorts even more.

Sent from my BlackBerry 9900 using Tapatalk

[jesse_h]

I bought shares when it was in the $6-range, i knew it had hit bottom and it was only up from there. I wish I had bought more than I did, but either way I'll profit one day.

[gregorylkelly]

omg the sky is not falling - why is this HOT! ? Like you're grasping for straws to keep your hope alive. There're be more predictions and reports of stock spikes and spirals. The primary risk stands.

This is big news. Every positive report that comes out is positive marketing for RIM. There is this foolish mindset amongst the general public that "BlackBerry" is going out of business. Each one of these positive memos from trusted and respected sources gives the general public more positive information about RIM.

People don't want to buy into an ecosystem that will not be around in a year or two, which is why som e people are moving away from BlackBerrys. These people are misinformed, so all these announcements are helping clear up all this bull. Don't underestimate the importance of news like this.

[BThunderW]

Looks like rally is fading. Scotia leading selloff. Don't think it'll close above $12. Would be nice tho.

[gregorylkelly]

I started buying in the $6s as well. I started with about $800 back in May (I think) and have been buying and selling the peaks and valleys since then to be able to increase my stake. I originally bought about 130 shares and throughout some lucky and educated buys and sells, I now have 404 shares at $10.75. I had planned on stopping the up and down game and just sitting on my shares for the long term, but the crazy jump in price over Thanksgiving gave me another opportunity to sell high and increase my stake. At this point, I really think I'm in long term, but another 15% jump for no great reason may have me doing another sell/buy.

So far I've turned $800 or so into shares worth $4750ish. Pretty happy about this. I had wanted to buy RIMM when they were at about $22 a year or so ago, but didn't have the extra funds to do it...man I'm happy about that! In a year or two, if things go perfect, RIMM could get up to the $30s (I know it's not exactly likely), and I could have my $800 turned into $12,000+!

[OMGitworks]

It is very good news, BUT to those who railed against GS as soul-less Wall Street market manipulators, just remember that. It works both on the way down and the way up.... Watch what they do, not what they say.

[notfanboy]

It is very good news, BUT to those who railed against GS as soul-less Wall Street market manipulators, just remember that. It works both on the way down and the way up.... Watch what they do, not what they say.

Thank you. I read too many posts that use manipulation as the reason for the stock going down, but never when it is going up.

Same story with the "media." When RIM gets bad press, it is due to an Apple/Google led conspiracy. But when Microsoft gets bad press, it is because Windows 8 sucks.

[Superfly_FR]

omg the sky is not falling - why is this HOT! ? Like you're grasping for straws to keep your hope alive. There're be more predictions and reports of stock spikes and spirals. The primary risk stands.

Perception by enterprises whose CEOs read the NY Times and watch CNBC. This is why it is REALLY important.

[randall2580]

In my office, whenever GS issue a buy recommendation we generally joke it's because they want to sell it to you...

[silversun10]

In my office, whenever GS issue a buy recommendation we generally joke it's because they want to sell it to you...

you have that, but probably it might have been as mundane as the share price had exceeded their target and they had to do a revision...