[apengue1]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/briancau...-says/?view=pc

The Nokia Lumia 900, which hits AT&T stores April 8, has been dinged by some critics — most notably the Wall Street Journal’s Walt Mossberg — who compared the phone unfavorably to Apple’s iPhone 4S.

While Epps is a fan of Nokia’s phone — and the Microsoft Windows Phone software powering it — she argues Nokia doesn’t need to beat Apple to succeed.

Instead Rottman suggests that Nokia target RIM users — and try to convert “every BlackBerry user to Windows Phone within two years,” she says. “BlackBerry users already pay for data, and they’ve consciously or unconsciously optednot to buy into Apple or Google’s ecosystem thus far,” she argues.

Epps sees an opportunity for Microsoft to gobble up RIM’s slice of the smartphone market — 8.2% worldwide according to IDC — and convert ‘some portion’ of those users who still rely on Nokia phones powered by Symbian, which the Finnish handset maker ditched in favor of Windows.

“The smartphone market is ripe for disruption — Palm is dead, Symbian is sunsetting, RIM is faltering, and every player in the ecosystem (other than Google and Apple) wants a third player to wedge between Google and Apple.”

Maybe there is something going on in the back-end.. just some food for thought.

Sent from my BlackBerry 9700 using Tapatalk

[jeffh]

When you read an article like this, it's useful for balance to look back a few years at other examples of expert punditry. For example, here's John Dvorak on the iPhone (quoted in Bye Bye BlackBerry. How Long Will Apple Last? - Forbes)...

In March 2007, computing industry pundit John C. Dvorak argued that “Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone” since “There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive.” Dvorak believed the mobile handset business was already locked up by the era’s major players. “This is not an emerging business. In fact it’s gone so far that it’s in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia Corp. and Motorola Inc.”

Hopefully 5 years from now, the gloom and doom around RIM will look just as ill-informed.

[Laura Knotek]

I am going to pick up a Nokia Lumia 900 on Monday. However, it has nothing to do with this article.

AT&T is rolling out LTE in my area by summer. I want an LTE device, and my only other devices that AT&T offers that are LTE-capable are Androids. I am not a fan of Android. The timing just works for me that the Nokia is being released around the same time that LTE is rolling out. I've had an upgrade available since May 2011, waited for BB10/LTE. Now I will be choosing a device that is available now and meets my needs.

I was a Nokia (Symbian) user before I used BlackBerry. I am not tied to any particular platform, so I will definitely reconsider BlackBerry in the future.

[_StephenBB81]

Well said JeffH.


Strategically speaking Nokia should be targeting BlackBerry Users, and BES installations, with Microsoft pushing for MS backend systems. it would be bigger single success stories about stealing customers over chasing the 1 and 2's of the consumer world.

Just like I don't think RIM should be looking to fight Apple dead on,
I think RIM should be doing like Microsoft and try and make something different for the people who 1, never had a smartphone, 2 don't like their current smartphone.

There is so little innovation happening on the UI front of smartphones, Apple's UI is so boring, RIM's and Androids don't do much to change from the boring grid, and no one is really playing with anything else.

[BlackBerry Guy]

Realistically, the fight right now is for the #3 spot. They're not going to catch Apple or Google anytime soon.

[kbz1960]

Why do they all need to kill off the others?

[Laura Knotek]

Why do they all need to kill off the others?

They don't. However, the Rule of Three is well-known in economics.

[apengue1]

The smartphone era is far from developed yet. Personally I think its going to be really interesting 5 years from now to see how everything played out. Its still too early to determine any real winner. Apple and Android are not safe yet I don't think. Nobody is. Still a lot of innovation to be accomplished on all fronts.

Btw this thread is just 'food for thought'. I'm not trying to insinuate anything. Its simply open for discussion.

[kbz1960]

They don't. However, the Rule of Three is well-known in economics.

I guess they better let the auto industry know.

[Laura Knotek]

The smartphone era is far from developed yet. Personally I think its going to be really interesting 5 years from now to see how everything played out. Its still too early to determine any real winner. Apple and Android are not safe yet I don't think. Nobody is. Still a lot of innovation to be accomplished on all fronts.

Btw this thread is just 'food for thought'. I'm not trying to insinuate anything.

I agree with you. Even the "Rule of Three" mentions that a competitor who is "knocked into the ditch" might be replaced by a new third competitor.

There might be a brand new company not even in existence today that will be the top smartphone company five years from now.

[Laura Knotek]

I guess they better let the auto industry know.

There are actually a lot of niche players in many markets. The best comparison I can think of would be fast-food burger chains. The top three are: 1) McDonald's, 2) Wendy's, 3) Burger King. Then there are a bunch of regional chains.

Burger King sees its rank in fast-food chain slip | Business | Kentucky.com

[playbookster]

I find it strange how there arent many doom and gloom articles for Windows phone yet it loses market share every quarter.. BlackBerry has 3x the marketshare of Windows phone in the US

[_StephenBB81]

Realistically, the fight right now is for the #3 spot. They're not going to catch Apple or Google anytime soon.

See I disagree here completely

The consumer market is easily fickle enough to see either of these titans fall in a year to #3 spot,
If the malware scare that has it Macs this week with 600,000 Macs infected hit the iPhone you'd see a very sharp shift in how Businesses treat the BYOD market, which could bring RIM to a very strong 3rd place in a very short time, and the negative impact on Apple products would spin poorly in the media because Apple may be the media darling, the underdog turned titan and on it's way to be the first trillion dollar company, but media loves to start kicking on the way down, and Apple would get it's fair share of kicking.
Android runs the risk of key players deciding to drop them because of the battle to the bottom, HTC numbers are hurting as bad as RIM's numbers, Samsung has more than just Android to play with, and with ZTE getting into the Android game in North America slowly it could actually give a bad image to the brand.
Will RIM be around still for this to happen? will any of it ever happen?
Will a completely new player come out with a new technology that trumps all that are currently available? can't be said,
but it is close minded to think anyone is really safe in a commoditized market like smartphones have become

[Laura Knotek]

I find it strange how there arent many doom and gloom articles for Windows phone yet it loses market share every quarter.. BlackBerry has 3x the marketshare of Windows phone in the US

I think we will need to wait another 6 months to a year with Windows Phone. It really has not been marketed much at all in the US, and I'm not just talking about advertising, but actual product availability. There have been very few Windows Phone models released in the US so far.

VZW only carries one Windows Phone, the HTC Trophy, which was released in June 2011. Sprint has the HTC Arrive, which was released in May 2011. The offerings at the big CDMA carriers are very limited.

If more devices are available, and these devices are advertised but fail to sell, then I expect to see more doom and gloom articles for Windows Phone.

[FlashFlare11]

I find it strange how there arent many doom and gloom articles for Windows phone yet it loses market share every quarter.. BlackBerry has 3x the marketshare of Windows phone in the US

That's true, but Microsoft has put out a competitive OS and is seen as more "battle-ready" than the current BBOS. Also, the end of BlackBerry would, essentially, mean the end of RIM. Microsoft is simply trying to enter the mobile space when they could easily do without it.

That said, yes, I agree. I don't know why everyone already thinks BB is "dead" when some of the the competition is still behind.

[Laura Knotek]

Also, the end of BlackBerry would, essentially, mean the end of RIM. .

I disagree here. IBM's exit from the PC market did not result in the end of IBM. IBM is a very successful company but its market is enterprise hardware, software, and business solutions. Companies sometimes are able to survive and thrive by changing business strategies.

[kbz1960]

There are actually a lot of niche players in many markets. The best comparison I can think of would be fast-food burger chains. The top three are: 1) McDonald's, 2) Wendy's, 3) Burger King. Then there are a bunch of regional chains.

Burger King sees its rank in fast-food chain slip | Business | Kentucky.com

Too true. Usually he who wants to get dirty enough and has the most money wins.

[jrohland]

I will certainly compare BB10 to the Windows phones available at that time. BB10 does not have to be at the Windows level, it it won't be for quite a while, but it does need to show some good potential. If BB10 is far below Windows at that time, I will strongly consider switching.

So the point is, Windows is the most dangerous competitor RIM has. Microsoft has a good cash flow from non-mobile business and a proven track record in the enterprise. They can sell to the same people and can easily outlast RIM.

Google has cash but it is not trusted in the enterprise--for good reasons.

Apple is a blip whose time will surely pass.

[YorkieRay]

I came to BlackBerry last year from Nokia and I may go back if RIM screw up with BB10. At present it is my full intention to get a BB10 at the end of the year but the Nokia Windows is my current 2nd choice.
Also, no more delays, you are not Apple. I was reading an article 2 days ago dated February that was confidently predicting a June launch for the all new iPhone 5. This was in 2011, not 2012. The continued non-appearance of iPhone 5 should be a running joke by now, but it isn't.

[undone]

The point about Android that gets missed is that it not a cash cow for Google. Matter of fact I am not sure they even generate any real money from it. With the acquisition of Motorola they will 'change' the landscape of Android. Expect another closed model to evolve, with a customized Android OS that is secure and well thought out. Android will be the basic template, but Motorola/Google will be the premier device(s) for Android. Samsung is right now number 2/1 (if I am not mistaken) but they smartly make the parts for Apples devices, so even being number 2 doesnt hurt when you make parts for number 1. The point is, even the current players are not going to be in the same positions when the music stops. Those that lose will be the ones that fail to find there niche and hold on to it.

[berklon]

Also, no more delays, you are not Apple. I was reading an article 2 days ago dated February that was confidently predicting a June launch for the all new iPhone 5. This was in 2011, not 2012. The continued non-appearance of iPhone 5 should be a running joke by now, but it isn't.

The difference is that Apple didn't set a release date for the iPhone 5, so there were never any delays for it. This was simply predictions by analysts and media.

RIM keeps promising and not delivering - both in release dates and in product quality.

I'm still floored that we have to wait at least 6 more months until BB10. That's a lifetime in the mobile world - and even longer when you're in the scenario RIM is in.

[Vindicators]

I find it strange how there arent many doom and gloom articles for Windows phone yet it loses market share every quarter.. BlackBerry has 3x the marketshare of Windows phone in the US

WM marketshare drop, not WP. WP actually growing.
More US Consumers Choosing Smartphones as Apple Closes the Gap on Android | Nielsen Wire

Some other reports put both OS in one group.

[JasW]

I think we will need to wait another 6 months to a year with Windows Phone. It really has not been marketed much at all in the US, and I'm not just talking about advertising, but actual product availability. There have been very few Windows Phone models released in the US so far.

VZW only carries one Windows Phone, the HTC Trophy, which was released in June 2011. Sprint has the HTC Arrive, which was released in May 2011. The offerings at the big CDMA carriers are very limited.

If more devices are available, and these devices are advertised but fail to sell, then I expect to see more doom and gloom articles for Windows Phone.

These devices, and the Nokia Lumia, are just stopgap Windows 7 phones, not dissimilar to BB7 devices. So the real test will not be more devices running the same, but rather the appearance of Windows 8/Metro on phones -- and tablets -- toward the end of the year. The potential importance of phones and tablets running the same OS that's on one's PC cannot be overstressed. Even Apple doesn't do that.

[lnichols]

Will be interesting to see how Nokia WP7 devices, basically running the same processors as the current Bold 9900 stacks up to BB10 devices that will have more advanced GPU's, dual cores, etc. I'm not going to try to compare them to OS7 because the sales are low and we all know OS7 isn't selling well in the US. Nokia has definitely priced the phones to sell though. I see Nokia WP7 definitely being a player against low end android and Blackberry devices in the near term.

[Economist101]

Also, no more delays, you are not Apple. I was reading an article 2 days ago dated February that was confidently predicting a June launch for the all new iPhone 5. This was in 2011, not 2012. The continued non-appearance of iPhone 5 should be a running joke by now, but it isn't.

The "iPhone 5" to which they referred was simply the "next" iPhone at the time, which turned out to be the 4S.