Forbes article suggests better prospects for RIM in 2012

[glassofpinot]

Here's an article from Forbe's web services. A bit general - not much we haven't seen or heard. It is not really a news piece, but IMO designed to get subscribers to their research services.

Best Ideas 2012: RIMM, Housing, Nuclear And Other Special Situations - Forbes

Blackberry. Worth a second look?
Many of us were hoping that Santa would bring us some of Apple‘s great products this holiday season, from it’s new iPhone 4s to it’s iPad 2 and Apple TV. Even better might have been a few shares of Apple’s stock (AAPL), which has had a relatively spectacular 25% climb during a year when the S&P 500 has struggled to break even. By contrast fewer of us covet Blackberry products these days despite some favorable reviews for its new tablet the PlayBook. Research In Motion‘s (RIMM) stock has been a train wreck, down 75% so far this year. But don’t necessarily count RIMM out, so says Dr. Vahan Janjigian, money manager and editor of Forbes Special Situation Service. He is betting on a RIMM recovery in 2012.

This installment of our Best Ideas 2012 package puts together an eclectic mix of favorite stocks that can be placed in the “contrarian buys” category. The stocks are either turnarounds or special situations. Included in the recommendations is a small company that trains workers at nuclear power facilities selling for about $1 per share and several housing-related stocks. One exception to the “buy on bad news” theme of this grouping is The Southern Company (SO) a strong utility stock selling near its 52-week high with a juicy 4% dividend yield. SO is up more than 20% this year.

Forbes Staff Dr. Vahan Janjigian Forbes Special Situation Survey

Research in Motion (RIMM)
It’s difficult to find a stock that is more out of favor than this one. The company is best known for the BlackBerry smartphone. RIMM is led by a pair of co-CEOs, a highly unusual arrangement for any publicly-traded company and one that has proven extremely ineffective in recent periods. The dysfunctional arrangement has resulted in one misstep after another. In particular, the company has delayed the launch of key new models and new software a number of times. RIMM also had a disastrous launch of its tablet computer dubbed the PlayBook.

Although some experts claim the PlayBook is technologically superior to other tablets, consumers complain that there are too few apps compare to Apple’s iOS (AAPL) operating system and Google‘s (GOOG) Android ecosystem. Management has been begging investors to exercise a little more patience. Instead, investors have been selling the stock.

Research In Motion Price
It’s too early to write RIMM’s obituary. Although the company is losing market share in the U.S., it’s still a leader in several key international markets. In fact, the subscriber base surged 35% year-over-year during the most recently completed quarter. The board of directors will release a report in January that is widely expected to recommend drastic changes. Despite reduced earnings expectations ($4.10 per share for fiscal 2012), with absolutely no debt on the books and the real possibility of a management shake up, RIMM is worth a second look.
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[Sith_Apprentice]

While valid points, I think estimating a major shakeup of leadership is a bit over the top. the coCEOs wouldnt have changed their salary if they were going to lose their job, and they are after all on the board.

[TheScionicMan]

It's not so much the coCEO thing, it's that one of them is also CMO. I still can't get over the PlayBook launch debacle. Supposedly, they couldn't settle on whether to market it to business or consumers, so instead of doing both, they did neither...

[Sith_Apprentice]

Originally Posted by TheScionicMan

It's not so much the coCEO thing, it's that one of them is also CMO. I still can't get over the PlayBook launch debacle. Supposedly, they couldn't settle on whether to market it to business or consumers, so instead of doing both, they did neither...

At least they were effective in that... lol

[Barljo]

Oh good. An analyst article.

I'm sure that this will be as true as the other ones saying RIM has no future at all...

[Furballz]

The beauty about predictions is that all you have to do is wait around a little...

[Thunderbuck]

I like this survey. I didn't get to see it before I pulled the trigger and bought shares a few weeks ago, but it does fall in line with my own view of RIM.

There are three key things to watch for, and all of them come within the next six weeks or so:

1. CES. There absolutely needs to be solid evidence of both a strong Playbook 2.0 "reboot" (hopefully with new developer support) AND some kind of demo to suggest where RIM is heading with BB10.
2. By January 31 the management review team is scheduled to provide a (public) report to the RIM Board of Directors. Lazaridus and Balsillie certainly hold a significant chunk of the company between them, and their response won't be ignored, but they themselves have a lot to lose just in the value of their share holdings. I'm sure both of them paid VERY close attention to yesterday's 6%+ jump in RIM's share price when it was suggested that a management shakeup was coming.
3. PB OS 2.0 needs to launch with minimal slippage, and if there IS slippage it needs to be announced ASAP. RIM's credibility is riding on this.

I think it's at least possible that we'll see positive outcomes on all three fronts, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed. If we don't see strong execution on any of these, though, I can't see RIM recovering.

[app_Developer]

@thunderbuck I would add they need to ship Cascades to developers by February, or else you'll see a lot more games and still very few business and utility apps. Plus they risk some developers just putting their hands up and saying forget it.

They promised this by Fall 2011. Then in December they told us "soon", whatever the heck that means.

[Thunderbuck]

Originally Posted by app_Developer

@thunderbuck I would add they need to ship Cascades to developers by February, or else you'll see a lot more games and still very few business and utility apps. Plus they risk some developers just putting their hands up and saying forget it.

They promised this by Fall 2011. Then in December they told us "soon", whatever the heck that means.

I loved that Cascades demo. It's easy to imagine an announcement on that at CES too. Assuming it's ready...

*sigh*