"It Doesn’t Matter If RIM Is Lying, It’s Still in Deep Trouble": Mashable article

[glassofpinot]

This was an article posted today & also picked up on Yahoo - a "step back" commentary on Wednesday's claims & denials about the real reason for the big delay. It provides a collection of perspectives on RIM - with the full range of not favorable, disappointment and even a hint of hope.

http://mashable.com/2011/12/22/rim-troubles-oped/

I'll post the full text in a following post.

from Mashable, by Christina Warren

[glassofpinot]

It Doesn’t Matter If RIM Is Lying, It’s Still in Deep Trouble
Dec 22, 2011 by Christina Warren

When Research In Motion (RIM) announced that BlackBerry 10 devices would be delayed until late 2012, co-CEO Mike Lazaridis blamed the delay on needing to wait for dual-core, dual-mode LTE chipsets.

Early Thursday, Boy Genius Report refuted that story. Citing an unnamed “high-level RIM employee,” BGR said that the real reason for the BlackBerry 10 delay is that RIM doesn’t have a working product.

RIM immediately denied the substance of the article, telling us and other members of the press that “the anonymous claim … is inaccurate and uninformed.” The company went on to reiterate its position that it “will not launch BlackBerry 10 devices until we know they are ready and we believe this new chip set architecture is required to deliver the world class user experience that our customers will expect.”

So who is lying and who is telling the truth — and more importantly — does it matter? I don’t think it does. The reason behind the BlackBerry 10 delay isn’t particularly interesting to me — though I get the sense that even if the LTE chipsets RIM wanted were available today, BlackBerry 10 devices would still be a year away — but the delay itself is indicative of just how perilous RIM’s current position is.

I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about RIM and its current situation, and no matter how I imagine various scenarios, I just can’t see a positive outcome. After sitting idle for years, RIM gave up its position as smartphone leader to Apple and Google. Already, developer sentiment toward Windows Phone matches or exceeds sentiment regarding the BlackBerry. This is a real problem.

Negative Momentum and Depressing Financials
2011 was not a good year for RIM. RIM’s entry to the tablet game got off to a rocky start, after the PlayBook failed to impress. This led to slow sales, cancelled partnerships and zero developer interest. RIM didn’t help matters by shipping the device without native email and then postponing the promised update several times.

On the phone front, BlackBerry 7 could have been called BlackBerry 6.1. BlackBerry handsets have routinely lagged behind their competitors in the past, and now they continue to fail to keep up with current-generation Android or iOS devices.

This has all has a profoundly negative effect on RIM’s bottom line.

As RIM defenders and BlackBerry loyalists like to point out, RIM is still a profitable company. However, its profits are on the decline. Moreover, just because the volume of devices shipped increases (or remains steady) does not mean a company is not in trouble. Volume != profit. Just ask Nokia.

Dan Frommer and Horace Dediu ably and astutely dissected, analyzed and graphed out RIM’s financial situation, so I won’t reinvent the wheel by doing my own. Suffice to say, without a killer new product, RIM’s profitability looks anything but secure.

A Dying Platform
In October 2010, product and marketing strategist Michael Mace wrote a prophetic article entitled “What’s Really Wrong with BlackBerry.” In his article, Mace outlines how computing platforms die — pointing to small declines in growth of sales and gross profit per unit sold. Mace’s post is worth reading because 14 months later, his predications perfectly match what has happened in the market and to RIM’s customer base.

As a former BlackBerry user, I’ve carefully watched the BlackBerry decline over the last few years. The iPhone didn’t become a lethal threat to the BlackBerry until July, 2008. When the App Store opened, the entire game changed. As a diehard BlackBerry user at that time, I bought an iPod Touch and was immediately blown away by the disparity between the first generation of iPhone apps and those available for BlackBerry.

Surely, I thought, RIM is going to do something to improve its app situation. It’s going to invest in better tools, beef up its underlying infrastructure and try to poach better developers. Right?

Wrong.

Instead, I watched as RIM ignored the current app situation, denied that there was a problem and continued to tout its dominance in the enterprise. The only problem, of course, was that BlackBerry’s dominance on the enterprise started to slip. Apple’s iOS 2.0 introduced Exchange support, and by 2009, getting corporate email on an iPhone was just as easy as getting it on a BlackBerry. I finally left the BlackBerry in 2009 as it became apparent that apps would never be a focus for RIM.

Millions of others in the U.S. made the same decision I made — including our Editor-in-Chief Lance Ulanoff. RIM still has strong sales in some emerging markets — but again, volume doesn’t equal profit. Just ask Nokia.

Silver Lining
The promise of QNX, the operating system RIM bought in 2010, was that its infrastructure and nature would make it ideal to use and augment on a plethora of devices.

With QNX, RIM was hoping to do what Apple did with the acquisition of NeXT: Create a next-generation operating system to replace the dead-end system in the current product line.

That promise still exists and QNX still has potential. Unfortunately for RIM, that potential depends on how quickly the company can get QNX-powered components on the market and how well RIM can build out its basic devices software.

Delays on the BlackBerry 10 devices — for whatever reason — don’t help. How much longer are users, developers and carriers supposed to wait for RIM to get its act together? And assuming the company does get its act together, is RIM ready to face reality about its position in the market, its role with developers and its appearance to consumers?

[poseidon5]

rim only have themselves to blame. it's a cumulation of arrogance and errors which led to their current state.

[Doc Z]

Alright really, that's enough of these threads.

We get it, RIM is in trouble. Pretty clear now.

[jhanks64]

What is peoples trip with Apps, Apps, Apps??

I think having built-in functionality and efficiency is more important. The current BlackBerry's are quite wonderful devices as they are right now.

The touch screen keyboards and such really suck, but if you really like that, there are current BlackBerry's that provide that and decent battery life too.

[glassofpinot]

Originally Posted by Doc Z

Alright really, that's enough of these threads.

This is a News forum - with a Sticky asking for news posts. So if something is not a flaming factless rant, and appears to have some factual basis, it ought to go up.

Even if I don't like all that it says. People need to be informed. I wouldn't have posted it if it was a total emotional cannon.

[glassofpinot]

Originally Posted by jhanks64

What is peoples trip with Apps, Apps, Apps??

I think having built-in functionality and efficiency is more important.

I'm inclined to agree, but that's just for me. I put too much time into working with the BB and Playbook to have a lot of time for Apps. I guess with my 10-15 bought Apps and 10-15 free ones (mostly work, productivity or travel related, and a few games), I am not the typical candidate for an i-App phone.

[Derwent Graphite]

RIM has one shot to win back consumer/developer confidence and that is the official release of 2.0 in February. If they manage to botch that up, BB10 is unlikely to take off smoothly.

[teknishun]

Originally Posted by jhanks64

What is peoples trip with Apps, Apps, Apps??

I think having built-in functionality and efficiency is more important. The current BlackBerry's are quite wonderful devices as they are right now.

The touch screen keyboards and such really suck, but if you really like that, there are current BlackBerry's that provide that and decent battery life too.

That is the exact question that I'm sure has been asked a million times at RIM headquarters, with probably the same response as yours. The problem is that when they started asking the question, the stock was sitting at over $145. The stock is now sitting at $14, and they're still asking the same question. RIM had two choices in how to respond. They could a) jump on the app train, or b) be run over by the app train. Unfortunately RIM chose the latter, which is why they are in the position that they are in. Google understood this, why didn't RIM?

[kb5zht]

Instead, I watched as RIM ignored the current app situation

<snip>

That statement explains everything wrong with rim. EVERYTHING.

They ignored public outcries to modernize
They ignored their own promises and deadlines (cb Kevin calls 2012 "the year of broken promises" for rim)
They ignored warnings not to use trademarked logos (bbx and now bbm)

They just thumb their nose at reality and do what they d*mn well please.

And fall faster and faster....
....and faster.

[Sith_Apprentice]

The problem is RIM used to be able to get away with these things. RIM was the single tool of business and government and basically untouchable. Now they are not (though still very much used) and are vulnerable to all of their past mistakes.

[Derwent Graphite]

Originally Posted by kb5zht

<snip>

That statement explains everything wrong with rim. EVERYTHING.

They ignored public outcries to modernize
They ignored their own promises and deadlines (cb Kevin calls 2012 "the year of broken promises" for rim)
They ignored warnings not to use trademarked logos (bbx and now bbm)

They just thumb their nose at reality and do what they d*mn well please.

And fall faster and faster....
....and faster.

Just to add to that, the statement which tells us that the co-CEOs are off the track when they talked about "leap-frogging" the competition. They couldn't even woo developers to build for their platform, couldn't understand the changing landscape... and started to talk about "leap-frogging" the competition when they couldn't even get basic things done right.

That statement revealed a lot about what is going through the co-CEO's mind and perhaps I could add, the direction of RIM. That is what we really should be concerned about, not when BB10 devices are released.

[berklon]

Originally Posted by Derwent Graphite

RIM has one shot to win back consumer/developer confidence and that is the official release of 2.0 in February. If they manage to botch that up, BB10 is unlikely to take off smoothly.

You're putting way too much importance in the 2.0 release. The release will come and go and it won't make a difference.

Already, developer sentiment toward Windows Phone matches or exceeds sentiment regarding the BlackBerry. This is a real problem.

Not going with Windows Phone OS will bite them in the down the road. When BB10 phones are available, it'll be too little - too late and everyone will wonder why they didn't adopt another OS that's gained more traction instead of starting from scratch so late in the game.

[Derwent Graphite]

Originally Posted by berklon

You're putting way too much importance in the 2.0 release. The release will come and go and it won't make a difference.

OS 2.0 release in itself will come and go, but how RIM does it is symbolic of internal changes (if any) in the management or hopefully mindset of the company. It is also important to fans/naysayers since the February deadline was yet another promise. It is the fulfillment of what the PlayBook should have been.

If RIM still can't do an OS release right in 2012 I wouldn't trust them to do it right for BB10 devices rollout which are still "in the air".

Like I said in my previous release, we ought to be more concerned about how the co-CEOs are going to lead RIM in coming years then "how awesome will BB10 be", especially if you're an investor going long on RIMM.

[trelawrence]

Originally Posted by teknishun

That is the exact question that I'm sure has been asked a million times at RIM headquarters, with probably the same response as yours. The problem is that when they started asking the question, the stock was sitting at over $145. The stock is now sitting at $14, and they're still asking the same question. RIM had two choices in how to respond. They could a) jump on the app train, or b) be run over by the app train. Unfortunately RIM chose the latter, which is why they are in the position that they are in. Google understood this, why didn't RIM?

LOL...

Good points. I know some people will never get it.