- CrackBerry Genius
02-19-2013, 12:43 PM #4
- 2,232 Posts
Hoy....vey......this is why I really try to avoid blog posts on 'seeking alpha"...which means....any ***** can write an "article".
Ugh....I'm not going to dig through the analysis....it appears heavily flawed...not just in the "assumptions", but even in the most basic math (though I'd have to go through and have an actual look at it to be sure).
- 02-19-2013, 12:44 PM #5Current phone: Q10/Nexus4
- CrackBerry Abuser
02-19-2013, 01:26 PM #7
- 331 Posts
IMHO, one of the best articles writed about Blackberry's future everDuantox Apps
Leandro Cerdan (Head developer)
BlackBerry Elite Dev
TapyHold, BB10 Built for Blackberry multimedia scrapbook app developer
Duantox Twitter: https://twitter.com/duantox
Tapyhold Twitter: https://twitter.com/tapyhold
Email: info at duantox dot com
- 02-19-2013, 03:45 PM #11
The biggest problem is that they are looking at Earnings, not free cash flow.
As much as I hate EPS< I'd love to see it go to $10 per share. That would easily put BBRY north of $40/ share anyway. Probably north of $70 but I won't say anthing beyond that. $45 meets my thesis based on FCF.
In gerneal, yes, BBRY is grossly undervalued.
- 02-19-2013, 03:49 PM #12
- 02-19-2013, 04:17 PM #13
I know I will be called troll for pointing this out, but here we go: how can one have the same operating expense in building different number of units? When income scales and cost stay the same, of course one will have disproportional EPS. Where is the extra expense on launching new platform and advertisement?
- 02-19-2013, 04:36 PM #14
If one can really have fix cost regardless of units built, then the easy strategy would be building as many as possible and flood the market.
For the scenario, let's say just build 1 billion units, and sell them each at $100 and with the fix operating expense of 5.240 million, BBRY will be worth over 900 million and be bigger than Apple.
Yeah, best article ever!!!
- 02-19-2013, 06:05 PM #17VOTE UP THE Z10!!!!!
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- CrackBerry Abuser
02-19-2013, 06:31 PM #18
- 361 Posts
The flaw in his worst case scenario mainly revolves around the unit calculation. I think the premise that BB10 will at least do as well as BB7 is a reasonable one for places like North America, Western Europe, some of the Middle East, Australia, etc... where the higher price point isn't a show stopper. However, BB7 sales in those countries seemed to be down to around 8-10 million per year (on an annualized basis) by the end of 2012. In the emerging markets where there are 25-30 million BB7 sales per year, I'm not sure how many of those people would be willing and able to pay a much higher price point (perhaps 10-20%). So based on that, the worst-case scenario would be 10.5 million to 16 million BB10 sales over one year.
- 02-19-2013, 07:27 PM #19
- 02-19-2013, 07:57 PM #21
Now this is what I like to hear. Finally indeed. About mother father time!!! As I just ranted in a random thread that had nothing to do with what I was saying (sorry guys. I had to get that off my chest but I still answered the unrelated question ). BlackBerry will have a rough road this year. I'm not worried about HTC, but they will advertise the dual quad octo processor and the insides. Then there's the samsung galaxy s4, and the lemurs will follow (I shouldn't say that but oh well) and the iphone 5s,plus ubuntu. Only time will tell
- 02-20-2013, 12:32 PM #23Phones:
Nokia 5110>Nokia 3360>Siemens C56>Moto RAZR>LG Chocolate>Pearl 8100>Bold 9000 >Pearl 9100 + Bold 9900 > iPhone 4S+ Z10 + Bold 9000
16GB Playbook> Playbook 32GB
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