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  1. gordo51's Avatar
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #1  

    Default Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued

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    drum (02-20-2013) 
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  2. Rooster99's Avatar
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    All I can say is ... finally!

    Thanks for sharing this.

    - R.
  3. TheStoof's Avatar
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    I like these numbers. All fantasy, but I like them.
    Current phone: Q10/Nexus4
  4. richardat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheStoof View Post
    I like these numbers. All fantasy, but I like them.
    LOL.

    Hoy....vey......this is why I really try to avoid blog posts on 'seeking alpha"...which means....any ***** can write an "article".

    Ugh....I'm not going to dig through the analysis....it appears heavily flawed...not just in the "assumptions", but even in the most basic math (though I'd have to go through and have an actual look at it to be sure).
  5. TheStoof's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by richardat View Post
    LOL.

    Hoy....vey......this is why I really try to avoid blog posts on 'seeking alpha"...which means....any ***** can write an "article".

    Ugh....I'm not going to dig through the analysis....it appears heavily flawed...not just in the "assumptions", but even in the most basic math (though I'd have to go through and have an actual look at it to be sure).
    I know the number at which I would want to sell so that half my student loans are paid off. Just not sure how greedy I want to be if the Z10 takes off here in the US. Unfortunately, for someone as impatient as I am, the US won't get my sale because I just ordered it from Canada through eBay. Sorry, AT&T/TMO. Too slow!
    Current phone: Q10/Nexus4
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  6. richardat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheStoof View Post
    I know the number at which I would want to sell so that half my student loans are paid off. Just not sure how greedy I want to be if the Z10 takes off here in the US. Unfortunately, for someone as impatient as I am, the US won't get my sale because I just ordered it from Canada through eBay. Sorry, AT&T/TMO. Too slow!
    LOL. Well I can relate to that debt, so I'll pull for you.
  7. BlackQtCoder's Avatar
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    #7  

    Default

    IMHO, one of the best articles writed about Blackberry's future ever
    Duantox Apps
    Leandro Cerdan (Head developer)
    BlackBerry Elite Dev
    TapyHold, BB10 Built for Blackberry multimedia scrapbook app developer
    Duantox Twitter: https://twitter.com/duantox
    Tapyhold Twitter: https://twitter.com/tapyhold
    Email: info at duantox dot com
  8. VeGiTo's Avatar
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    #8  

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    Quote Originally Posted by richardat View Post
    LOL.

    Hoy....vey......this is why I really try to avoid blog posts on 'seeking alpha"...which means....any ***** can write an "article".

    Ugh....I'm not going to dig through the analysis....it appears heavily flawed...not just in the "assumptions", but even in the most basic math (though I'd have to go through and have an actual look at it to be sure).
    Care to point out which assumption is flawed? I'm interested to hear it. Author purposely erred on the side of caution.
  9. TheStoof's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by VeGiTo View Post
    Care to point out which assumption is flawed? I'm interested to hear it. Author purposely erred on the side of caution.
    Assumptions are based off data. Presumptions are pulled out of your ***.

    The stock, regardless of the math, can hit $200 just like any other stock.
    Current phone: Q10/Nexus4
  10. VeGiTo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by richardat View Post
    LOL.

    Hoy....vey......this is why I really try to avoid blog posts on 'seeking alpha"...which means....any ***** can write an "article".

    Ugh....I'm not going to dig through the analysis....it appears heavily flawed...not just in the "assumptions", but even in the most basic math (though I'd have to go through and have an actual look at it to be sure).
    Actually, please do dig through, and point out exactly where the math is flawed. The author has purposely erred on the side of caution on almost every line.
  11. kfh227's Avatar
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    #11  

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    The biggest problem is that they are looking at Earnings, not free cash flow.

    As much as I hate EPS< I'd love to see it go to $10 per share. That would easily put BBRY north of $40/ share anyway. Probably north of $70 but I won't say anthing beyond that. $45 meets my thesis based on FCF.

    In gerneal, yes, BBRY is grossly undervalued.
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  12. kfh227's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by craigdavid_UK View Post
    The truth is, BBRY was priced at bankruptcy valuation when it was trading at $6
    God less than that when it was that low. Even some value investors that hate risk jumped onboard just because of valuation. It was that low. Many took their 100-150% gains and walked.

    Research In Motion's Eventful Fourth Quarter Leaves Gurus Divided - GuruFocus.com
  13. ccbs's Avatar
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    I know I will be called troll for pointing this out, but here we go: how can one have the same operating expense in building different number of units? When income scales and cost stay the same, of course one will have disproportional EPS. Where is the extra expense on launching new platform and advertisement?
  14. ccbs's Avatar
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    If one can really have fix cost regardless of units built, then the easy strategy would be building as many as possible and flood the market.
    For the scenario, let's say just build 1 billion units, and sell them each at $100 and with the fix operating expense of 5.240 million, BBRY will be worth over 900 million and be bigger than Apple.
    Yeah, best article ever!!!
  15. VeGiTo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ccbs View Post
    If one can really have fix cost regardless of units built, then the easy strategy would be building as many as possible and flood the market.
    For the scenario, let's say just build 1 billion units, and sell them each at $100 and with the fix operating expense of 5.240 million, BBRY will be worth over 900 million and be bigger than Apple.
    Yeah, best article ever!!!
    Gross margin. Look it up.
  16. gordo51's Avatar
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #16  

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    Quote Originally Posted by gordo51 View Post
    To clarify, I meant useful comments from people who own calculators and know something about financial calculations. This guy is not spouting a lot of words mirroring his opinion. He is offering up some numbers and asking for comments on them. I'd be interested in knowning where his Worst Case scenario is flawed because if its based on reasonable numbers that looks pretty good.
  17. AfroZepher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gordo51 View Post
    To clarify, I meant useful comments from people who own calculators and know something about financial calculations. This guy is not spouting a lot of words mirroring his opinion. He is offering up some numbers and asking for comments on them. I'd be interested in knowning where his Worst Case scenario is flawed because if its based on reasonable numbers that looks pretty good.
    yup. . .preferably in some sort of layman's terms for us who hate math. . .LOL
  18. Zarpan's Avatar
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    #18  

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    The flaw in his worst case scenario mainly revolves around the unit calculation. I think the premise that BB10 will at least do as well as BB7 is a reasonable one for places like North America, Western Europe, some of the Middle East, Australia, etc... where the higher price point isn't a show stopper. However, BB7 sales in those countries seemed to be down to around 8-10 million per year (on an annualized basis) by the end of 2012. In the emerging markets where there are 25-30 million BB7 sales per year, I'm not sure how many of those people would be willing and able to pay a much higher price point (perhaps 10-20%). So based on that, the worst-case scenario would be 10.5 million to 16 million BB10 sales over one year.
    Thanked by:
    kfh227 (02-19-2013) 
  19. VeGiTo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarpan View Post
    The flaw in his worst case scenario mainly revolves around the unit calculation. I think the premise that BB10 will at least do as well as BB7 is a reasonable one for places like North America, Western Europe, some of the Middle East, Australia, etc... where the higher price point isn't a show stopper. However, BB7 sales in those countries seemed to be down to around 8-10 million per year (on an annualized basis) by the end of 2012. In the emerging markets where there are 25-30 million BB7 sales per year, I'm not sure how many of those people would be willing and able to pay a much higher price point (perhaps 10-20%). So based on that, the worst-case scenario would be 10.5 million to 16 million BB10 sales over one year.
    Valid point... I suppose the article wasn't "pessimistic" enough. But reality will land higher than that - you have to factor back in the organic growth of the smartphone market (approx 20%-30%), an expected tax credit from prior losses, further opex savings from CORE program, and possible new service & software revenue from app/music/video sales and QNX licensing etc. And given that BB10 is doing better than previous BB7 devices in UK, Canada, Middle East I think that unit sales will be higher as well.
  20. #20  

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    i don't trust analysts or bloggers .. most have their own (hidden) agendas …. but i do believe that Blackberry will exceed Wall Street expectations when numbers are announced…..
  21. Emu the Foo's Avatar
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    #21  

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    Now this is what I like to hear. Finally indeed. About mother father time!!! As I just ranted in a random thread that had nothing to do with what I was saying (sorry guys. I had to get that off my chest but I still answered the unrelated question ). BlackBerry will have a rough road this year. I'm not worried about HTC, but they will advertise the dual quad octo processor and the insides. Then there's the samsung galaxy s4, and the lemurs will follow (I shouldn't say that but oh well) and the iphone 5s,plus ubuntu. Only time will tell
  22. Bbnivende's Avatar
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    Should CB move this thread to BBRY ?
  23. Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by richardat View Post
    LOL. Well I can relate to that debt, so I'll pull for you.
    Hmmm I cannot relate to the debt. I have never had debt. Hopefully everything works out for you.
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  24. tehbeast87's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes View Post
    Hmmm I cannot relate to the debt. I have never had debt. Hopefully everything works out for you.
    Americans have school debt
  25. greggebhardt's Avatar
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    #25  

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    I would not put your life savings in BBRY right now. After seeing how it reacted with the EU introduction, I would hold off. The next few months will tell
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