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  1. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    Here's something to consider. At the start of 2012, Windows Phone was available in about 35 market. Currently, it's available in over 120, and adding fast. I suspect that might influence uptake a little bit.
  2. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    #127  

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    Quote Originally Posted by texazzpete View Post

    Worrying for RIM, I don't see BB10 making any meaningful impact in the important Chinese market just yet. Too expensive... And no word on any deal with any of the big Chinese carriers.
    RIM already has deals with all three Chinese wireless carriers. They just don't sell much, and is mostly limited to Beijing and Shanghai. Most people don't even know what they are.

    And you're right, they're very expensive for Chinese market, without having the brand recognition of Samsung or Apple, or even Nokia.
  3. SuperionMaximus's Avatar
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    #128  

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roo Zilla View Post
    Here's something to consider. At the start of 2012, Windows Phone was available in about 35 market. Currently, it's available in over 120, and adding fast. I suspect that might influence uptake a little bit.
    Here's something to consider. At the start of 2013, BlackBerry 10 will be available in over 50 markets. Quickly, over the course of the year that number will grow pas 150 (more then 150 carriers testing BB 10 according to RIM on their earnings call). I suspect that might influence uptake a little bit.

    RIM has phenomenal carrier relations and Frank Boulben is a carrier guy who spent most of his career at Orange, so he knows how to get phones on carriers. With BlackBerry 10 RIM is going to come out hard. It will be a much broader launch then Palm had with the Pre and much broader launch then Microsoft had Windows Phone.

    Yes, all the new markets Windows Phone is in will help it's over all market share, but for most of these new Markets BlackBerry 10 will be there just months after and it is yet to be seen if Microsoft's partners can find a country that really loves metro.. er, I mean Windows UI.
  4. SuperionMaximus's Avatar
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    #129  

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    Quote Originally Posted by texazzpete View Post
    You need to put some realism into this

    BB10 will not nearly catch up to iOS on the app front for ages. Certainly not in 2013...And many big name apps will remain missing for a while to come.
    Apple products still have the highest customer satisfaction ratings in the industry so you won't make many inroads there. Not to mention there's no low priced BB10 device on the horizon to wrest sales from those who find apple devices too expensive

    Android market share is much more vulnerable to erosion. There are way too many slow, laggy older devices still in play and a whole load of the average consumers who bought into Android didn't buy it because of customizations. Lots of people buy because they like the hardware, the screen size was excellent and because their carrier didn't have the Iphone. There's growth in these areas.

    Worrying for RIM, I don't see BB10 making any meaningful impact in the important Chinese market just yet. Too expensive... And no word on any deal with any of the big Chinese carriers.

    Sent from my GT-N7100 using Tapatalk 2
    I did not say how big a bite that BB 10 will take out of apple, at first it will be a small trickle. Mostly former BlackBerry customers who are now iPhone customers and don't like all the restrictions that come with being tied to iTunes/iCloud, but do like the polished and consistent user experience. ESPECIALLY with the first two phones being higher priced models, it will be apple customers more then cheap Android customers that will be interested in BB 10. I don't think that is unreasonable at all considering initially RIM has stated that retention of it's current customers will be top priority and going after conquest sales will be later on in the year when there is more variety in handsets - including entry level.

    Speaking of entry level, as Mentioned RIM is already in China, and RIM has entry level phones (yest two) on the horizon in 2013. So they will have inexpensive phones to sell in China but they will need to work on brand recognition there.
  5. lnichols's Avatar
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    #130  

    Default Re: Could BlackBerry 10 kill Windows Phone?

    Quote Originally Posted by texazzpete View Post
    I'm referring to Marketshare here...

    Sometimes it isn't just about profits...Xbox was considered a success yet the entertainment division lost money constantly for Microsoft for years and years.
    Microsoft loses money with Bing too...yet they are only too glad to trumpet each percentage point of marketshare they wrest away from Google.

    The smartphone sector wasn't as small or niche as you try to paint it. There were tens of millions of devices sold even then.

    This link
    the::unwired - EXPECTATIONS: Microsoft sees Windows Mobile Smartphone growth up 50 %

    Reports Microsoft sold 11 million units of the WM software in the 2007/08 fiscal year. That's much more than the 'one million devices' you mention. Care to address this disconnect?

    Ah So dumping tons of money to get marketshare in a small market did what for them when the market grew? RIM almost sold more than that last quarter supposedly on their "death bed". Here is a summary of marketshare for them:

    Windows Mobile's share of the smartphone market grew from its inception while new devices were being released. Peaking in 2007,[70] after which it saw decline year-on-year.
    In Q1 2004, Windows Mobile accounted for 23% of worldwide smartphone sales.[71] Windows Mobile was projected to overtake Symbian to become the leading mobile OS by 2010.[72]
    In Q4 2005 Microsoft shipped 2.2 million PDAs, which increased to 3.5 million in the same quarter the following year.[73] Windows Mobile saw year over year growth between 20052006 of 38.8% which according to Gartner "helped Windows Mobile to solidify its stronghold on the market".[73]
    But by 2008, its share had dropped to 14%.[74] Microsoft licensed Windows Mobile to four out of the world's five largest mobile phone manufacturers, with Nokia being the exception.[75]
    Gartner research data showed that while the total smartphone industry grew 27% between 2008 and 2009, Windows Mobile's share of the smartphone market fell 2.7% in that same period.[76] It also[76] decreased by 20% in Q3 2009.[77] At one time Windows Mobile was the most popular handset for business use,[citation needed] but by 2009 this was no longer the case; 24% of planned business deployments of mobile application were for Windows Mobile, putting it in 3rd place, behind Blackberry (61%) and iPhone (27%);[78]
    So while their losing money for marketshare worked in the game console market, I think any realist would admit that it has failed in the Phone Market.
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  6. texazzpete's Avatar
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    #131  

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    Quote Originally Posted by lnichols View Post
    Ah So dumping tons of money to get marketshare in a small market did what for them when the market grew? RIM almost sold more than that last quarter supposedly on their "death bed". .
    That's an apples-to-oranges comparison...comparing sales in 2006 to sales in 2011?

    Quote Originally Posted by lnichols View Post
    So while their losing money for marketshare worked in the game console market, I think any realist would admit that it has failed in the Phone Market.
    Nope, any realist will admit it has not been a failure. Microsoft's mobile marketshare is inching upwards once again. Without WP they'd have been lost. Windows Mobile was already in freefall with no new devices coming out. At least WP has stemmed the tide and WP8 is showing decent uptick in many markets.

    as for your quoted article, it's no surprise that the iPhone hit Microsoft harder than RIM. At that time in 2007 and early 08, the iPhone was being speedily adopted by anyone who needed a touch screen phone. All Windows Mobile phones were touchscreen phones (some had slide-out keyboards though). Blackberries were all keyboard phones and the iPhone wasn't as much of a threat to RIM's demographic as it was to Windows Mobile. Apps hadn't become the biggest deciding factor just yet. AT&T stopped pushing their WM phones in favour of the iPhone.
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    #132  

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    Quote Originally Posted by SuperionMaximus View Post
    Yes, all the new markets Windows Phone is in will help it's over all market share, but for most of these new Markets BlackBerry 10 will be there just months after and it is yet to be seen if Microsoft's partners can find a country that really loves metro.. er, I mean Windows UI.
    Could BlackBerry 10 kill Windows Phone?-kantar.jpg

    Well, you can see above that there are several markets that do seem to be getting rather fond of the Metro UI...
  8. aha
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    #133  

    Default Re: Could BlackBerry 10 kill Windows Phone?

    Quote Originally Posted by SuperionMaximus View Post
    So they will have inexpensive phones to sell in China but they will need to work on brand recognition there.
    Amen to that. But RIM should be focusing on the high end market in China. The low end market is crowded by so many Chinese companies there and RIM just doesn't have an competitive edge there.

    At mid to high end however, there will be a rising demand for secure smartphone devices. Cyber threat will, if not already, become a huge issue in China. IPhone is the escape right now for government officials, business man and anyone who has a secret to protect, BB can offer something different there but it has to be high-end.

    The key is the quality of service. Currently BIS services sucks in China, RIM has to figure out a way to help the big three China carriers to improve their QoS for Blackberries, otherwise it doesn't matter how great BB10 is, Windows Phone will take the 3rd place in the 2nd largest, and potentially the largest in near future, smart phone market.
  9. GTiLeo's Avatar
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    #134  

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    Quote Originally Posted by texazzpete View Post
    That's an apples-to-oranges comparison...comparing sales in 2006 to sales in 2011?



    Nope, any realist will admit it has not been a failure. Microsoft's mobile marketshare is inching upwards once again. Without WP they'd have been lost. Windows Mobile was already in freefall with no new devices coming out. At least WP has stemmed the tide and WP8 is showing decent uptick in many markets.

    as for your quoted article, it's no surprise that the iPhone hit Microsoft harder than RIM. At that time in 2007 and early 08, the iPhone was being speedily adopted by anyone who needed a touch screen phone. All Windows Mobile phones were touchscreen phones (some had slide-out keyboards though). Blackberries were all keyboard phones and the iPhone wasn't as much of a threat to RIM's demographic as it was to Windows Mobile. Apps hadn't become the biggest deciding factor just yet. AT&T stopped pushing their WM phones in favour of the iPhone.
    no but the fact that it was a media player was a good factor for those lookign for a smartphone and an mp3 player
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  10. lnichols's Avatar
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    #135  

    Default Re: Could BlackBerry 10 kill Windows Phone?

    Quote Originally Posted by texazzpete View Post
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	kantar.jpg 
Views:	37 
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ID:	129802

    Well, you can see above that there are several markets that do seem to be getting rather fond of the Metro UI...
    Again this chart isn't total marketshare, it is marketshare of new sales. Also all of the markets are established and well off markets and RIM hasn't released any new high end phones in the second compared time interval of those charts. Nokia was basically giving WP7 devices away in the US, and probably in other markets too as they get a payment from Microsoft every quarter to make WP devices. It will be interesting to compare high end L vs high end WP8 device sales over 2013, and if Nokia's phone division makes more than $250 Million in a quarter which would be break even after you subtract out Microsoft money they pay to Nokia to make WP devices. Hopefully RIM will also get some Curve priced BB10 devices to market in 2013.
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  11. sf49ers's Avatar
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    #136  

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    no wonder ...
  12. GTiLeo's Avatar
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    #137  

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    Quote Originally Posted by sf49ers View Post
    no wonder ...
    when you really think about it hes right iPhone isn't really an e mail machine, yeah it does e mail just fine but there are better on the market, what the iPhone did well and still does well is its a consumer device, it pretty much does everything, as Kevin said on his podcast with rene the iPhone does alot of things well but does nothing great, there are no effiecnt ways of doing things with it like say with some of the standard BBOS features or the widgets in Android but it is simple to do these basic functions so it attracts to alot of users and really why their satisfaction ratings are so high, at the beginning of the smartphone market they were meant more for bussiness folks on the go, RIM for a while made it a consumer market and Apple ran with it and took it to another level that RIM or anyone else could compete with
  13. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    #138  

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    Quote Originally Posted by lnichols View Post
    Ah So dumping tons of money to get marketshare in a small market did what for them when the market grew? RIM almost sold more than that last quarter supposedly on their "death bed". Here is a summary of marketshare for them:

    Windows Mobile's share of the smartphone market grew from its inception while new devices were being released. Peaking in 2007,[70] after which it saw decline year-on-year.
    In Q1 2004, Windows Mobile accounted for 23% of worldwide smartphone sales.[71] Windows Mobile was projected to overtake Symbian to become the leading mobile OS by 2010.[72]
    In Q4 2005 Microsoft shipped 2.2 million PDAs, which increased to 3.5 million in the same quarter the following year.[73] Windows Mobile saw year over year growth between 2005–2006 of 38.8% which according to Gartner "helped Windows Mobile to solidify its stronghold on the market".[73]
    But by 2008, its share had dropped to 14%.[74] Microsoft licensed Windows Mobile to four out of the world's five largest mobile phone manufacturers, with Nokia being the exception.[75]
    Gartner research data showed that while the total smartphone industry grew 27% between 2008 and 2009, Windows Mobile's share of the smartphone market fell 2.7% in that same period.[76] It also[76] decreased by 20% in Q3 2009.[77] At one time Windows Mobile was the most popular handset for business use,[citation needed] but by 2009 this was no longer the case; 24% of planned business deployments of mobile application were for Windows Mobile, putting it in 3rd place, behind Blackberry (61%) and iPhone (27%);[78]
    So while their losing money for marketshare worked in the game console market, I think any realist would admit that it has failed in the Phone Market.
    MS never lost money on Windows Mobile. During its heyday, customers were more than willing to pay to license WinMo, at about $30 a pop. The pumping money to support the platform to gain rapid adoption strategy only started with Windows Phone, which is less than 2 years old out in the market.
  14. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    #139  

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    Quote Originally Posted by aha View Post
    Amen to that. But RIM should be focusing on the high end market in China. The low end market is crowded by so many Chinese companies there and RIM just doesn't have an competitive edge there.
    The last time I was at the Blackberry store in Shanghai, they didn't have any low end phones for sale. They were also similarly priced to iPhones. They're already trying to push themselves as a high end brand.

    Quote Originally Posted by aha View Post
    At mid to high end however, there will be a rising demand for secure smartphone devices. Cyber threat will, if not already, become a huge issue in China. IPhone is the escape right now for government officials, business man and anyone who has a secret to protect, BB can offer something different there but it has to be high-end.
    Have you noticed there are almost no reports of millions of dollars stolen from customer bank accounts from places like China, or India? Cyber thieves go to where the money is.....

    Quote Originally Posted by aha View Post
    The key is the quality of service. Currently BIS services sucks in China, RIM has to figure out a way to help the big three China carriers to improve their QoS for Blackberries, otherwise it doesn't matter how great BB10 is, Windows Phone will take the 3rd place in the 2nd largest, and potentially the largest in near future, smart phone market.
    In what way does BIS service suck in China? I tried it, and it's identical to what's offered everywhere else. As of 2012, China is the world's largest market for smartphones.
  15. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    #140  

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    Quote Originally Posted by GTiLeo View Post
    no but the fact that it was a media player was a good factor for those lookign for a smartphone and an mp3 player
    A phone, an iPod, and a revolutionary internet communicator....

    You forget, first desktop class browser in a mobile phone.
  16. lnichols's Avatar
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    #141  

    Default Re: Could BlackBerry 10 kill Windows Phone?

    Quote Originally Posted by Roo Zilla View Post
    MS never lost money on Windows Mobile. During its heyday, customers were more than willing to pay to license WinMo, at about $30 a pop. The pumping money to support the platform to gain rapid adoption strategy only started with Windows Phone, which is less than 2 years old out in the market.
    Perhaps you should look in my earlier post that shows a chart of losses of over $550 Million from 2003 to 2005 in the mobile division.
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  17. ADGrant's Avatar
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    #142  

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    WP7 is a completely different OS to WP8.
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    You may think the iPhone 5 is ordinary but Apples smartphone market share was over 50% in the last quarter largely due to iPhone5 sales.
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    Quote Originally Posted by SuperionMaximus View Post
    I agree that RIM will get most of its conquest sales from iOS. Those users will love the consistent and speedy experience and if the Big name apps are in App World then customers that are sick of the limitations of apple hardware and tired of iOS will likely see BB 10 as fresh and exciting. Android users may be turned off by the lack of customization available in the OS.
    If you are correct, RIM is probably doomed. Apple has the best customer retention numbers in the industry.
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    #145  

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    Quote Originally Posted by kevinnugent View Post
    Besides which, if Microsoft thought BB10 too much of a threat they could buy it and eat it whole.
    Sorry but thats just not going to happen UNLESS the RIM board wanted it to happen, after that its still far from getting done. RIM knows what they have in their hands, if they wanted to sell they would have done so over a year ago when offeres were made! Dream on!!
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    #146  

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    Quote Originally Posted by Banco View Post
    All publicly listed companies are for sale given the right offer. That's how it works.
    Ask BHP how that thought worked out for them?

    Its funny how all the old RIM bashers are now looking for a sale to MS. RIM can take that as an endorsment!
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    #147  

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    Re: Could BlackBerry 10 kill Windows Phone?
    [I've read two articles so far saying the surface rt tablet and wp8 won't let you run one app on both devices with one single purchase. Is that correct? If so, they've already gimped themselves right from the starting gate when it comes to unified app ecosystems.]

    Quote Originally Posted by howarmat View Post
    they are 2 different systems. one is intel based the other is arm based.
    I learned something right there, so apps have to be bought separately for the two devices from one manufacturer? Fail!!!
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    #148  
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  24. Roo Zilla's Avatar
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    #149  

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    Quote Originally Posted by lnichols View Post
    Perhaps you should look in my earlier post that shows a chart of losses of over $550 Million from 2003 to 2005 in the mobile division.
    The entire Mobile division encompasses a lot of things other than WinMo. During that period, it included things like Win embedded (which itself is a bunch of products), Win Automotive, and MapPoint. Significantly, portions of the losses during that period were due to grants of stock based compensation to certain employees including $95M in 2004. The idea that Windows Mobile (the smartphone operating system) is the cause of all the losses during 2003-2005 is of course, silly. By 2006, the division's revenues for the year was $377M. with about 147M from WinMo, and that year showed 37% growth in WinMo sales. The entire division was profitable that year, meaning significantly that the division was pulled up by WinMo which had the highest gross revenue growth.

    In 2007, WinMo became part of the newly formed Entertainment and Devices division at MS and the division lost almost $1.9 Billion. Are you going to blame that loss on WinMo too? Or perhaps, just perhaps, that year, X-Box and Zune had something to do with losses at that division?
    Last edited by Roo Zilla; 12-30-2012 at 03:35 AM.
  25. ADGrant's Avatar
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    #150  

    Default Could BlackBerry 10 kill Windows Phone?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dapper37 View Post
    Sorry but thats just not going to happen UNLESS the RIM board wanted it to happen, after that its still far from getting done. RIM knows what they have in their hands, if they wanted to sell they would have done so over a year ago when offeres were made! Dream on!!
    RIM is a publicly traded company. MS could buy it at any time.
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