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  1. calicocat2010's Avatar
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    Default CNET article on Mobile Predictions of 2013

    http://m.cnet.com/news/mobile-10-pre...-2013/57553339

    Mobile: 10 predictions for 2013
    by Roger Cheng December 27, 2012

    If nothing else, 2012 has shown that the mobile industry is a pretty tough business to be in.


    Many handset manufacturers, wireless carriers, and component suppliers felt the pressures of mobile business sink in, and as a result, there were a lot of shake-ups this year.

    The same pressures and competitive dynamics are expected to persist next year, so expect a lot more action. The following predictions are based on conversations with industry sources over the last few months, market trends, speculation, and a little wishful thinking.

    One thing's for sure, the industry should keep us all on our toes in 2013.

    Consolidation continues
    The wireless industry has long talked about the need for fewer service providers, and 2013 should follow through on some of the groundwork laid this year. SoftBank's controlling stake in Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile USA's merger with MetroPCS may signal a long-anticipated industry consolidation.

    Other regional carriers such as U.S. Cellular and prepaid provider Leap Wireless could be in someone's crosshairs. MetroPCS and Leap were long rumored to be dance partners, but that talk ceased when T-Mobile opted to form a new company with MetroPCS. But perhaps there's room for Leap on that bandwagon?

    Sprint attempted to make a run at MetroPCS, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing made by MetroPCS. Sprint could make another run at MetroPCS, or perhaps go after Leap. The wireless business is a scale business, where bigger is better, so maybe Sprint looks elsewhere?

    It's a safe bet that the big two, Verizon Wireless and AT&T, won't be making any major deals. Verizon just managed to get approval for its deal to acquire spectrum from the cable companies, while AT&T is likely still gun shy after regulators squashed its attempted takeover of T-Mobile last year. AT&T has been content to strike smaller deals and get those through the regulatory maze.

    No clear third OS emerges
    Next year sees a vicious battle for the so-called coveted No. 3 spot for mobile operating systems behind Google's Android and Apple's iOS.

    The contenders are Microsoft's Windows Phone 8 and Research in Motion's BlackBerry 10. Both have expressed confidence that they have what it takes to be the third player in this increasingly crowded business. Windows Phone 8 benefits from an earlier launch and the coattails of the massive Windows 8 campaign from Microsoft. RIM, meanwhile, already boasts a large base of customers and will get a launch window all its own early next year.

    Our call on this: nobody wins. Both will scrape by with just enough sales to warrant continuing, but neither will see spectacular performance.

    While Microsoft is selling its Windows Phone 8 platform as part of a family of Windows 8 products, Windows 8 itself isn't off to a scintillating start, and that might slow adoption of the mobile OS.

    BlackBerry 10, meanwhile, may get some traction with hardcore BlackBerry users who want an upgrade, but it'll take a while for RIM to convince other consumers to take another chance on the platform. While RIM likes to boast of its 80-million-strong customer base (now 79 million after the fiscal third quarter), many of those customers are using the more affordable BlackBerry 7 devices.

    In addition, the dominance of Android and Apple make it extremely difficult for any third player to make inroads on the market.

    RIM in store for a shake up
    If BlackBerry 10 isn't a success out of the gate, expect to see some agitation within the investment community -- or what's left of it -- which has patiently held out hope for a turnaround. Investors don't have unlimited patience, and an early stumble could mean pressure on the company to shake things up.

    That could mean anything from another change on top, although CEO Thorsten Heins has led the company with relatively far fewer mistakes than his predecessors, to a potential sale of the company. The company could make good on its push to license its BlackBerry 10 operating system to different industries.

    Last year, I called for RIM to get taken out, and I won't be burned by that prediction again. RIM does survive, but it either a drastically reduced or transformed way.

    Spectrum grab
    It's amazing what a few deals will do to the state of a crisis, right? All of the industry's biggest players, including AT&T and Verizon Wireless, all claimed a looming spectrum crisis in justifying their respective deals. After Verizon got its cable spectrum, and AT&T scooped up a number of smaller businesses, the rhetoric has changed greatly. Even Sprint and T-Mobile are sounding a lot more optimistic about things.

    But the companies do insist that they need more spectrum, or the airwaves used to carry cellular traffic like voice and data, and they will likely pursue further deals next year. Sprint bought spectrum from U.S. Cellular, likely a prelude of future spectrum swaps. Verizon is also selling off a swath of its spectrum as a condition to acquiring an alternative patch of spectrum from the cable providers, something that'll likely entice all companies, including T-Mobile to other smaller regional companies.

    Dish Network, meanwhile, is sitting on a wealth of spectrum. The most likely scenario is that it sells to AT&T, but the company is considering dabbling in mobile video.

    A new chairman of the Federal Communications Commission is expected to replace Julius Genachowski next year, but with President Obama back for a second term, the FCC's agenda and focus on spectrum shouldn't change too much.

    Google gets more active in wireless service
    Sound farfetched? Well, the recent rumors that Google met with Dish to talk about a new wireless service lends some credibility to this prediction.

    And Google already has a wired business in Google Fiber. While the deployment is limited to one area, the fact that it exists shows the Internet search giant is willing to dabble in different projects.

    Dish has slowly been amassing enough spectrum for a nationwide service of its own, and has made it clear it would like to build a network. But the business requires a lot of capital, and it's unclear whether Dish has the firepower to actually meet its goals. Enter Google, which has a lot of cash and technical resources.

    This prediction is admittedly on a longer limb. It wouldn't be surprising if this never happened.

    Softbank kick-starts Sprint
    The infusion of $8 billion in additional capital should do wonders for Sprint's prospects in the wireless market. The company has been criticized for its slow deployment of 4G LTE, which has managed to avoid major cities while covering "key markets" such as Rome, Ga., and Rockford, Ill.

    Well, the extra cash should get CEO Dan Hesse moving a lot quicker when it comes to its 4G LTE rollout, which lags behind AT&T and Verizon. Unlike AT&T, which at least has a relatively quick HSPA+ network for its phones, Sprint customers using the most high-end devices are stuck on the painfully slow 3G CDMA technology, since it dropped using its variant of 4G, WiMax, in favor of LTE.

    Sprint should get a wider selection of smartphones thank to its relationship with SoftBank. If SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son is to be believed, Sprint will get even more competitive with pricing as it takes on its bigger rivals.

    Higher focus on prepaid
    Every carrier is going to rededicate itself to attacking the prepaid market, particularly with growth in the contract subscriber market quickly evaporating.

    T-Mobile, which already has a sizable prepaid business, should only see its presence grow there once it joins up with MetroPCS, which only offers no-contract plans. CEO John Legere's hints at a "different experience" for its iPhone could mean an affordable prepaid option for Apple's marquee device.

    Even larger carriers such as Verizon can't ignore prepaid, given the need to keep customer growth humming. Sprint, which has been aggressive in prepaid with its Virgin Mobile and Boost Mobile lines, was seen as the biggest potential loser of the T-Mobile-MetroPCS marriage.

    Mobile payments whiff again
    Next year is the year for mobile payments, really! Yeah, that line has only been uttered a few times over the past several years, and so far, we've got a few limited launches.

    Google continues to have the most visible initiative out there, and it hasn't really taken too many people by storm, despite seeding the capability and Google Wallet out to its Nexus smartphones. Isis, the joint venture between AT&T, Verizon Wireless, and T-Mobile, just started its trials last month, and there are no signs when it'll move beyond that. The deal between Starbucks and Square seems interesting, but for now, it's largely Square processing Starbucks payments and not fully utilizing the advantages of full mobile payments.

    Mobile payments continue to be hampered by rival groups all with their own agendas, and some don't even feel it really addresses any real problems.

    Apple, meanwhile, hasn't committed to the Near-Field Communication technology used by many of the mobile payment parties, and offers its PassBook as its take on a mobile wallet. Even then, the implementation has been limited and disappointing.

    Apple, Samsung will dominate, but new entrants could mix things up
    With the iPhone and, increasingly, the Galaxy S, brands coming with their own built-in hype machines, expect the two companies continue reaping in a majority of the profits. Companies such as HTC, LG, and Sony have struggled this year, and those struggles are expected to continue with few of them bringing out a product that really changes their circumstance.

    HTC has the best shot with its Droid DNA, but it too lacks the resources to effectively compete against Apple and Samsung. Sony, LG, and a myriad of other companies are still looking for the right answers.

    Next year could see some interesting new smartphones from Microsoft and Amazon, both long rumored to be building their own handsets. Google's Motorola Mobility unit is reportedly building an "X" flagship phone that will better compete with the iPhone and Galaxy S III.

    Samsung and Apple reach a settlement
    Let's file this one under the wishful thinking category. But I can't be the only one sick of writing and reading about patent lawsuits, right?

    This one is (sadly) not looking so good, especially if Samsung is saying this.

    Let's hope that the goodwill from the holidays carries through to Apple and Samsung's lawyers. But most likely, the hostilities will continue as both try to one-up each other in courts around the world.
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  2. advcomputer's Avatar
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    >>RIM in store for a shake up
    >>If BlackBerry 10 isn't a success out of the gate, expect to see some agitation within the investment community -- or what's left of it -- which has patiently held >>out hope for a turnaround. Investors don't have unlimited patience, and an early stumble could mean pressure on the company to shake things up.

    I would agree with the author if the 2 clowns were still at the helm of RIM, however under TH, I believe adoption of the platform will be much better than predicted, due to better "leaks" and marketing to create the buzz needed.
    Jeff
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    Default Re: CNET article on Mobile Predictions of 2013

    More balanced than I've come to expect from CNET.

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    You know what i like about predictions.....they are always wrong. I think the group think of apple and android staying on top are going to be surprised by the outcome in 2013. Then again who knows the future?
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    I particularly liked this one..... "While RIM likes to boast of its 80-million-strong customer base (now 79 million after the fiscal third quarter), many of those customers are using the more affordable BlackBerry 7 devices." Really? What else would they be using at this point?
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjcampbell View Post
    I particularly liked this one..... "While RIM likes to boast of its 80-million-strong customer base (now 79 million after the fiscal third quarter), many of those customers are using the more affordable BlackBerry 7 devices." Really? What else would they be using at this point?
    Most BlackBerry subscribers are from emerging markets using "affordable BlackBerry 7 devices", not the target for the pricy z10.
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    Default CNET article on Mobile Predictions of 2013

    People forget three things:

    1) there is little loyalty to anything these days, especially in technology. It is all about the latest and greatest. It is the reason a nightclub opens up super packed and then a week later is closing because everyone is around the corner at the new one.

    2) These mobile OS phones have a very low cost to switch. I have an iPhone 4S and am probably on the more rare side of things with over $100 in app purchases over the last year or so, $150 in movies and books. Song purchases will move to BB10. With that said, I plan on moving back. Just because I purchased a few 99 cent apps won't hold me back from getting a new phone. Also, the phones themselves, aren't all that expensive. With subsidies what are they in America, $150 to $250? Even without subsidies they are $500 or so dollars. That sounds like a lot and is to most people (including me), but I see people crating a purse around on their arm that costs more and sticking their phone into it. Purses don't even do anything!

    3) Humans (myself included) have a terrible memory. They can't remember what they had for dinner last week, let alone how they felt about a device. I barely remember all the trouble I had with my old Blackberry and that was a year ago.

    In the end, BB10 is going to probably crush the people that are short and surprise all these journalists who hint it will barely survive or is for the Blackberry loyalists. In fact, most of the people I talk to that are purchasing BB10 are coming from iPhone.
    Last edited by Caymancroc; 12-28-2012 at 03:56 AM.
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    3) Humans (myself included) have a terrible memory. They can't remember what they had for dinner last week, let alone how they felt about a device. I barely remember all the trouble I had with my old Blackberry and that was a year ago.

    I agree with your post except this part. I have a terrific memory for products and businesses that I feel have wronged me. I will never buy another GM product, I will never stay at certain hotels, I will never shop at certain stores and I will never have another Windows phone - wouldn't if they were free. A truly bad experience will leave 'a mark'.
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    Default Re: CNET article on Mobile Predictions of 2013

    Quote Originally Posted by CATufts View Post
    3) Humans (myself included) have a terrible memory. They can't remember what they had for dinner last week, let alone how they felt about a device. I barely remember all the trouble I had with my old Blackberry and that was a year ago.

    I agree with your post except this part. I have a terrific memory for products and businesses that I feel have wronged me. I will never buy another GM product, I will never stay at certain hotels, I will never shop at certain stores and I will never have another Windows phone - wouldn't if they were free. A truly bad experience will leave 'a mark'.
    Absolutely agree with you on this.
    I shop through online catalogues for a lot of things, and there is one I will no longer go near, based on two negative experiences.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Caymancroc View Post
    People forget three things:

    1) there is little loyalty to anything these days, especially in technology. It is all about the latest and greatest. It is the reason a nightclub opens up super packed and then a week later is closing because everyone is around the corner at the new one.
    I am curious on what you base this quote on? The reason I ask is recent surveys I have read say 60% of iPhone sales are to previous iPhone users and 92% of iPhone users expect their next purchase to be another iPhone.

    I think a blanket statement like that is ill informed. I think there is a small subset of folks who migrate from OS to OS but the majority find something that works for them and stay with it if it continues to work for them, and no one should know that better than the folks who love their BB and couldn't imagine life without it. Believe it or not there are folks who feel the same about iOS and Android.

    A lot of the growth in smartphones are new users who haven't had the chance to get locked in yet. While the USA and EU are nearing saturation, the rest of the world still has not moved to smartphones and it's been there RIM has found it's best success.
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    I think RIM would be happy to lure away 10% of Apple and Android's customers and be sitting at ~15% of the US market share. With the higher priced handsets, they will become profitable.
    Then, when M2M explodes, their share prices will too.
    When you consider how carriers, reviewers and analysts have been saying what a surprisingly good phone the prototypes are, it isn't hard to imaging 10% of the US populace agreeing and switching, especially when the actual phones come out with even better specs than the prototypes.
    Add to that the increase in the number of smartphone users overall and RIM will be a very profitable niche smartphone company in North America.

    It's all about the advertising and whether it is seen as cool. It will hold up well from a purely technical perspective but cool is where it's at. Ya dig?
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    Quote Originally Posted by randall2580 View Post
    I am curious on what you base this quote on? The reason I ask is recent surveys I have read say 60% of iPhone sales are to previous iPhone users and 92% of iPhone users expect their next purchase to be another iPhone.
    Hi Randall. I don't have any stats or anything other than good ol' fashioned life experience. At one point in time I am sure BB users had very high degrees of loyalty, including myself, but things change. I used to love my iPhone when I had iOS5. I have no loyalty to it though. iOS6 has been a challenge for me. It has disappointed me, much in the same way iPhone 5 has disappointed many people who were hoping for more from Apple or the same way Apple maps has led many on a disappointing goose chase.

    The problem with surveys is that they are static and for that period of time. I bet if you look back in 1982 many people liked their car. Survey that same car today, and you will see a different outcome. Also, the problem with listening to surveys and experts is that they are almost always wrong. People said John Paul Dejoria would never penetrate the hair care business, that Dave Thomas couldn't compete against Burger King and McDonald's, and that Steve Jobs would never bring Apple back from the brink. People say a bunch of stuff.

    How about the experts...In the US, the Congressional Budget Office (the experts that the Dems and Repubs in the USA always point to) forecasted a budget surplus of over $5 trillion from 2002-2011. However, the actual number came in at a deficit of over $6 trillion. Whoops! So much for the experts. That is over $11 trillion off.

    Quote Originally Posted by randall2580 View Post
    I think there is a small subset of folks who migrate from OS to OS but the majority find something that works for them and stay with it if it continues to work for them, and no one should know that better than the folks who love their BB and couldn't imagine life without it.
    I disagree and think the small subset of people you speak about, are the ones that are super loyal. If that were the case, Apple wouldn't have sold any iPhones. It is the reason Blackberry had a huge position in the US and lost it to Apple/Android. It might be the reason Apple/Samsung/others will be blindsided by RIM soon. Most people don't really care if their phone says BB, or Apple, or Samsung. They want the latest and greatest and want it to work. It is why so many people instantly switched from their BB to iPhones/Androids. They wanted more, albeit, many won't use it or even know what it means to have it. Kinda like the lady who buys a Louis Vuitton purse. She can't tell you about the quality. She only bought it because it was "cool".

    Quote Originally Posted by randall2580 View Post
    Believe it or not there are folks who feel the same about iOS and Android.
    I know. Believe it or not, they are a very small group when it comes down to it. They will be the ones tapping their iPhone screen in 10 years when a new company comes along and gives you the tele-transportation device that sends emails from your mind. They are the small percentage in the US using Blackberry phones today (most of the phones out there are better in terms of any specs). They are the ones boarding trains to travel across country when airfares are cheaper and faster. There will always be those people but they are very small.

    Quote Originally Posted by randall2580 View Post
    A lot of the growth in smartphones are new users who haven't had the chance to get locked in yet. While the USA and EU are nearing saturation, the rest of the world still has not moved to smartphones and it's been there RIM has found it's best success.
    The USA and EU are still huge markets and will grow through innovation and churn. The growth in technology precludes market saturation from even occurring now. If that were the case, I would never have bought another camera, because I bought one in 1986. Market saturation is a limited thought process. Companies that grow find a way to penetrate markets that are "saturated".

    Phones are super cheap and the amount of money people wrap up in them, I feel, is no real barrier. 99 cent apps, a $20 charger, and a $10 case for a $200 phone is not enough to overcome the "latest and greatest" phenomena that is displayed in these developed countries. If it cost people thousands, then many would think twice. But it doesn't.

    This is the reason Apple has had such a hard time getting into the PC dominated market. The cost barriers are simply too great and companies have too much invested.

    However, for the common person, who uses a few fart apps, texts, doesn't talk on their phone, and doesn't even use their calendar let alone the other features these phones come with (which I would bet is by far the large majority of smartphone users), I think they will switch instantly to anything that is new and improved.

    I spent over $1000 on my iPhone 4S just over a year ago, have a few hundred invested in movies, apps, cases, chargers, etc. I am not saying this to brag, but even this isn't enough for me to stay with Apple. I am planning on moving to BB10. If I am willing to do it, while typing this message on my iMac, then I am sure other Mac users who have much less invested and who are not as loyal, will be with me on release day.

    My gut is that Blackberry 10 will be a huge success if it is polished, perfect, and looks as good as the videos released.

    Good luck to the RIM employees. They have worked hard and will hopefully enjoy many sales!

    Happy New Year to you Randall and all the other Crackberry loyalists!
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    Quote Originally Posted by CATufts View Post
    3) Humans (myself included) have a terrible memory. They can't remember what they had for dinner last week, let alone how they felt about a device. I barely remember all the trouble I had with my old Blackberry and that was a year ago.

    I agree with your post except this part. I have a terrific memory for products and businesses that I feel have wronged me. I will never buy another GM product, I will never stay at certain hotels, I will never shop at certain stores and I will never have another Windows phone - wouldn't if they were free. A truly bad experience will leave 'a mark'.
    I have to agree with Catufts. I remember the problems I had with all of my Curves, the Bold and the S2 I had. It'll take a lot of proving on part of RIM before I think about coming back.
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    I do think there will be a lot of skeptics, and I don't have a problem with that; it's a direct result of the position that RIM put itself in.

    My belief from the beginning was that RIM as a company was filled with very talented people, and was the victim of a few devastatingly bad management decisions. To me, management made a very clear change in direction in October last year, and ever since then they've done everything I think anyone could expect.

    Even so, these are things that WE see because we're in the community. Others will remain skeptical, and to me that's completely understandable. Honestly, BB10 is good enough that winning customers back won't be that hard. And it will be lots of fun
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    I left BlackBerry because my 8520 would not do what I needed it to do. I went to android, because I would not buy an Apple product because of SJ. I came back to BlackBerry because I missed the BlackBerry email features, and picked up an OS7 device. I do not think I am that unique, and others will at least look at the new BB 10 devices because they miss parts of the BlackBerry experience. That is all one can ask for. The ball is in RIM's court to score the points. If they pull another Storm fiasco ( and it looks HIGHLY UNLIKELY) then stick a fork in them.
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    "With the iPhone and, increasingly, the Galaxy S, brands coming with their own built-in hype machines, expect the two companies continue reaping in a majority of the profits. Companies such as HTC, LG, and Sony have struggled this year, and those struggles are expected to continue with few of them bringing out a product that really changes their circumstance."
    There is certainly plenty of hype about, especially when it comes to the iPhone. I read an article just this morning that suggested that iOS was an ageing operating system, the article was written 2 years ago. Since then, little has changed with Apple's operating system. CrackBerry Kevin has already pointed out that when BB10 is launched, iOS will be the oldest os on the market. I really hope that BB10 will be a success, if not then I fully expect some of it's great features to be considered by Apple.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Caymancroc View Post
    People forget three things:

    1) there is little loyalty to anything these days, especially in technology. It is all about the latest and greatest. It is the reason a nightclub opens up super packed and then a week later is closing because everyone is around the corner at the new one...
    Totally agree with you on this one.
    Anyone who has switched from BB to iOS or Android has already demonstrated their lack of loyalty. It would be nothing for them to switch back to BB.
    RIM is dead. Long live BlackBerry!
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    Caymancroc -

    My anecdotal evidence in life is a direct contrast to yours, and it's hard to argue with a "feeling" - the polls reflect what I see in my general group of friends and associates. I know exactly one person who has ever left iPhone once going there. He bought a BB 9800 after antennagate - hated it - and bought the 4s the day it was released. I don't understand how that loyalty means Apple would never sell another phone - especially when 60% of the people who are buying iP5 are previous iP owners? And, before you consider calling me a fanboy - I have owned exactly one Apple product - a 2nd gen iPod. Doesn't mean I don't respect what they have accomplished.

    What you miss is that this site is a very monument to the loyalty of the BB faithful. While some have left, a big group didn't go anywhere in spite of an ecosystem that is currently lacking, in fact it's grown over the years. I cannot understand why folks here believe that BlackBerry is the only brand capable of loyalty like this. BlackBerry owned a large percentage of a small group of smartphone owners, mostly businessmen - a large percentage of whom are still rocking a BB even today. iOS and Android have grown because of the huge number of folks coming to smartphones over the last 5 years.

    I giggle when I hear that iOS is old. BlackBerry are currently telling you that BB10 will be the platform for the next 10 years. iOS is 5 going on 6 years old? They don't get the same consideration I guess. What I have seen through devices like the PlayBook is that RIM has had a very hard time understanding what people like about iOS.

    Samsung gets it - their commercials make fun of it.

    As to fanboys of Android being a very small group - I don't think you get the likes of XDA and Cyanogenmod if that were true. Their number (Android fanboys) are growing every day. The nature of Android is that it isn't going to be for everyone, and I bet the group that had 1 Android phone and moved on is a goodly sized group. But JB 4.2 is a step away from that. ICS was the first real step in an OS that can compete with iOS for the average user. JB 4.1 and now 4.2 might be it's equal. There is an awful lot of innovation coming from that platform right now. More coming.

    Your point about cars in 1982 - know anyone who has owned Toyota after Toyota - (like my girlfriend - she's had 5 models of Camry since 1994), or Honda after Honda? They don't have brand loyalty like Apple does. I know folks who are absolutely dedicated to a particular brand of car simply because it works for them, every time they turn the key. They want their smartphone to be a refrigerator. Just work for me. Their tablet to be a toaster - I want to do that on my tablet, so I do it.

    Fact of the matter is that phones are anything but "super cheap". An unlocked iP5 $800 here in the States. An unlocked Galaxy S3 is $570. You want to tell me the cost is only $199 at the AT&T store? Whats the final cost after you are finished with your 2 year contract - 3 in Canada. Music has become fungible - with the absence of DRM I can move my music anywhere I want so that's not a consideration. What folks don't want to lose is the ability to "just do", and I would bet you dollars to donuts that the biggest reason BB fans have moved was there was something important they wanted to do, and couldn't. Go through the forum. Skype, Netflix, streaming video, Instagram, there are a boatload of them. RIM has to convince the owners in other OS's that BB10 gives them something to do now they cannot do on an iP or a Galaxy Note. Going to be interesting to see if it can be done without BB World logo not next to anything and everything you want to do on a phone like iTunes and Google Play are.

    The good wishes are reciprocated. I enjoy the exchange of ideas here in this forum, and I respect your point of view on the subject. Buyers and sellers make markets.
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    jakie55 (12-29-2012) 
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  19. John Arnold's Avatar
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    Will someone switch to BB10? It comes down to a couple of factors: 1) Inertia - people don't like change, but after some short term bumps, they will change; 2) Switching Costs - how much do you lose by switching - e.g. apps, connections with friends, etc; 3) BB10 value proposition relative to other propositions for specific customer segments.

    Here's how it will play out in the next two years - I am vague, because this is only my hypothesis:
    1) RIM loyalists jump on board, including a higher than expected number of enterprise customers
    2) Apple users don't switch
    3) ~10% - 15% of Android users switch b/c of carrier sales push and their relatively low attachment to the product - e.g. they bought b/c they liked the browser
    4) RIM gets its fair share of new customers (transferring from feature phones) b/c of the carrier sales push

    Ultimately, RIM will get acquired. It's assets are worth more in the hands of a company that can slug it out with Google and Apple.
  20. Bobert_123's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjcampbell View Post
    I particularly liked this one..... "While RIM likes to boast of its 80-million-strong customer base (now 79 million after the fiscal third quarter), many of those customers are using the more affordable BlackBerry 7 devices." Really? What else would they be using at this point?
    I think they meant the cheaper BB7 devices like the curves...
    Sent from my Z30, Z10, or a soon to be BB10 PlayBook

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  21. cjcampbell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Arnold View Post
    Will someone switch to BB10? It comes down to a couple of factors: 1) Inertia - people don't like change, but after some short term bumps, they will change; 2) Switching Costs - how much do you lose by switching - e.g. apps, connections with friends, etc; 3) BB10 value proposition relative to other propositions for specific customer segments.

    Here's how it will play out in the next two years - I am vague, because this is only my hypothesis:
    1) RIM loyalists jump on board, including a higher than expected number of enterprise customers
    2) Apple users don't switch
    3) ~10% - 15% of Android users switch b/c of carrier sales push and their relatively low attachment to the product - e.g. they bought b/c they liked the browser
    4) RIM gets its fair share of new customers (transferring from feature phones) b/c of the carrier sales push

    Ultimately, RIM will get acquired. It's assets are worth more in the hands of a company that can slug it out with Google and Apple.
    1) I agree
    2) Yes they do, and if Apple doesn't come out with something actually new soon, they will be doing so in droves. (not opinion but from speaking with iPhone owners)
    3) The tech savvy will stay as they are so very customizable, others will give different platforms a look. If it's worth it, they will move on.
    4) Currently, yes, you are correct. Moving forward though, they have something that is not only competitive, but, according to some, better than the competition.

    Rim may or may not get acquired but I don't see it happening. Of course I could be wrong, but then again, so could you.
  22. Jake Storm's Avatar
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    If someone wanted to acquire RIM, they would have done it when the share price was sub $7.
    RIM is dead. Long live BlackBerry!
  23. jesse_h's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jake Storm View Post
    If someone wanted to acquire RIM, they would have done it when the share price was sub $7.
    It doesn't work that way. If RIM was sold it would be at an offer of between $25-$30 per share. They don't base an offer on what the stock is trading at.
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  24. jesse_h's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrfreetruth View Post
    You know what i like about predictions.....they are always wrong. I think the group think of apple and android staying on top are going to be surprised by the outcome in 2013. Then again who knows the future?
    I'm a huge RIM fan, but you aren't being realistic at all. It would take RIM maybe 5-8+ years to gain back enough market share to be number 1 or 2, and that's an extremely liberal view. Maybe you don't realize how many handsets are running ios and android. Apple has over 200 million active devices, and android is over 500 million. Those are huge numbers.
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  25. Jake Storm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jesseh View Post
    It doesn't work that way. If RIM was sold it would be at an offer of between $25-$30 per share. They don't base an offer on what the stock is trading at.
    I'm guessing you just pulled that number out of your ***
    The offer price per share would be a lot lower if the stock is trading at $7, than it would be if the stock was trading at $21.
    RIM is dead. Long live BlackBerry!
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