BlackBerry Fans Are Going To Love The Latest Bullish Research Note We Just Got

**advcomputer** · 01-23-2013, 09:08 AM

BlackBerry Fans Are Going To Love The Latest Bullish Research Note We Just Got - Yahoo! Finance

BlackBerry Fans Are Going To Love The Latest Bullish Research Note We Just Got
By Steve Kovach | Business Insider – 29 minutes ago
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RIMM 17.68 -0.22

We just got a very nice report from RBC Capital regarding RIM's next mobile operating system, BlackBerry 10.
BB10 will officially launch January 30 at a big press event in New York, and RBC says it's increasingly optimistic about the platform's chances of success. It expects the new BlackBerry phone to cost $149 with a carrier contract. RBC predicts RIM will sell about 500,000 of them in the first quarter.
RBC predicts more BB10 devices will launch throughout the year, and RIM could sell as many as 10 million of them in 2013.
Don't Miss: Photos of the near-final version of BlackBerry 10 >
Here are some bullet points from RBC's report:
Sentiment turns positive leading into BlackBerry 10 (BB10) launch. We’re re-calibrating our estimates ahead of RIM’s BB10 launch. Numerous carriers may promote the device, ensuring some initial unit success, and we expect an attractive subsidized price of $149. Pre-orders appear concentrated in Canada and the UK. We expect a larger screen model and mid-tier devices to follow the initial Touch and Qwerty devices. Normalized earnings are not likely until FY15. While sentiment on RIMM is positive at the moment, things can quickly reverse if sell-though data is not favorable or if returns are high. We estimate downside at $12 (tangible book).
Upgrade of diehard installed base. Our forecast calls for RIM to ship 500k BB10 units in the Feb-quarter and 10M in CY13. Heavy subsidies and promotions may be required to sustain initially positive trends. Approximately 10–20M of RIM’s 79M installed base may upgrade to BB10 over time, although migration to low-cost Android is likely to continue. BB10, which does not entail mandatory service fees, will increase RIM’s mix of hardware revenue over time. Sustainable hardware margins have been elusive for many vendors.
Starting at an opportune time. RIM will have 70k apps at launch, including many popular ones (Apple and Android near 800k). About 1,600 North America enterprises are testing BB10. Key differentiators include BBM video calling, enhanced voice recognition, BlackBerry Hub, and work/personal separation. Reviews of the browser remain favorable. Timing of the launch seems auspicious as Samsung will refresh its GS in April and Apple’s new device won’t arrive until June.
Far too early to call a success. The true measure of success will be not just units, but also sustainable profitability, and competition is cut-throat with Windows convinced they will be the third mobile OS vendor. Heavy upfront spending may be required for the launch and we expect initially $500+ ASP and 10–15% gross margins on BB10 before volumes help margins.

**simu31** · 01-23-2013, 09:19 AM

Originally Posted by advcomputer

RBC predicts RIM will sell about 500,000 of them in the first quarter.
RBC predicts more BB10 devices will launch throughout the year, and RIM could sell as many as 10 million of them in 2013.

If RIM can get the phones to carriers fast enough, and carriers make them available fast enough after the Jan 30th launch, I'd go as far as to say that RBC's estimates are pretty low, even for the first quarter... but it depends upon carrier availablilty.
10million units for the first year is miles off. RIM pushed through over 7 million BBOS7 devises in their last quarter, there's no way BB10 cannot out sell that per quarter.

Si.

**iToya** · 01-23-2013, 09:47 AM

Estimations are low, but this is a new platform. I'm a fan of that $149 pricing. *crosses fingers* let that be a reality!

**VeGiTo** · 01-23-2013, 10:33 AM

Estimates are stupidly low because Canadian carriers already upped their orders to 2M units based on pre-order data. And that's only Canada.

**InWithTheNew** · 01-23-2013, 10:54 AM

Originally Posted by VeGiTo

Estimates are stupidly low because Canadian carriers already upped their orders to 2M units based on pre-order data. And that's only Canada.

You are 100% correct on that. Pre-orders from carriers are already multiple times higher than 500K. How about we do 5 million in this quarter for bb10 devices, 3-4 million bb7 devices at least this quarter.

**blackhawksfan75** · 01-23-2013, 11:37 AM

Where are people getting this pre-order information from? As far as I know the only carrier that is physically taking pre-orders is Rogers (Fido just started) and you must be an existing customer. Bell and Telus are still doing pre-registration only. Even if you go into Best Buy and mention I would like to pre-order a Z10 device, they will ask "for which carrier"; I then say "Telus"; the salesperson will then ask me to hold off.

**Goint** · 01-23-2013, 01:06 PM

How is that bullish? They need 18M in sales to break even.

**battery** · 01-23-2013, 01:22 PM

Originally Posted by VeGiTo

Estimates are stupidly low because Canadian carriers already upped their orders to 2M units based on pre-order data. And that's only Canada.

Where are you getting these numbers from? Please don't say BlackBerry Scoop. The only thing good about that account is that the person is very good at scouring the blogs for information and tweeting as their own.

The Rogers pre order thread is hovering around 2,500.

Sent from my BlackBerry 9900 using Tapatalk

**InWithTheNew** · 01-23-2013, 02:56 PM

we're not talking about consumer pre-orders. We're talking about the numbers being floated around that the carriers are purchasing upfront.

**InWithTheNew** · 01-23-2013, 02:57 PM

Originally Posted by Goint

How is that bullish? They need 18M in sales to break even.

18M for the whole year !!! RIM will do more than that .

**RubberChicken76** · 01-23-2013, 03:00 PM

Originally Posted by Goint

How is that bullish? They need 18M in sales to break even.

First off, 18 million is an analyst's estimate. Let's not misocnstrue his guess as a fact.

Second, I don't think the assessment was that they needed to sell 18 million in a quarter.

**whitbags** · 01-23-2013, 03:41 PM

I too would like to know where the preorder figures have come from. Last figure I saw @blackberryscoop suggest was 400,000.

**tharrison4815** · 01-23-2013, 04:26 PM

"Pre-orders appear concentrated in Canada and the UK."

No one in the UK is offering any pre-orders for BB10 at the moment. This source sounds suspicious to me.

**SuperionMaximus** · 01-23-2013, 06:47 PM

I think they could realistically do 5 million in Q1 if they can get out on Verizon and AT&T in February. Pretty much anyone on those carriers with an OS 7 device is due for upgrade or close and if they get a strong push and great reviews you could see existing customers really drive sales.

**Revampd** · 01-23-2013, 07:11 PM

Did anyone notice the line in the article?: We expect a larger screen model and mid-tier devices to follow the initial Touch and Qwerty devices.

What larger screen model? This is the first I've heard anything about that.

**LazyEvul** · 01-23-2013, 07:15 PM

Originally Posted by Revampd

Did anyone notice the line in the article?: We expect a larger screen model and mid-tier devices to follow the initial Touch and Qwerty devices.

What larger screen model? This is the first I've heard anything about that.

A BB10 phablet has been rumoured for some time, that's probably what they're talking about.

**Revampd** · 01-23-2013, 07:29 PM

Really? I've never seen mention of it in the forums. Thanks. That would be something.

**GTiLeo** · 01-23-2013, 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by VeGiTo

Estimates are stupidly low because Canadian carriers already upped their orders to 2M units based on pre-order data. And that's only Canada.

I agree

**GTiLeo** · 01-23-2013, 07:43 PM

Originally Posted by Revampd

Really? I've never seen mention of it in the forums. Thanks. That would be something.

The Aristo has been rumored since august

**DJM626** · 01-23-2013, 07:45 PM

I personally am not a fan of phablets. I use my phone as a means of reliable communication first and foremost. I can't even begin to imagine holding something that big up to my ear, and I would not want to always use it in the speaker phone mode either. I know there are many out there that are fans of devices that size. I think what I see in Z10 is going to be perfect size for me. I would prefer to get a tablet (playbook) before a phablet, but to each their own

**GTiLeo** · 01-23-2013, 07:51 PM

Originally Posted by DJM626

I personally am not a fan of phablets. I use my phone as a means of reliable communication first and foremost. I can't even begin to imagine holding something that big up to my ear, and I would not want to always use it in the speaker phone mode either. I know there are many out there that are fans of devices that size. I think what I see in Z10 is going to be perfect size for me. I would prefer to get a tablet (playbook) before a phablet, but to each their own

The rumored Aristo isn't even that much bigger then the London series .4" larger from corner to corner isn't at all big. The note is a phablet its huge but there is a market for it