[josaki]

As titans Apple (AAPL) and Samsung (005930) continue to stomp across the smartphone landscape, a new battle is emerging between two scrappers in 2013. In one corner sits Microsoft (MSFT), the world’s largest software company that still can’t seem to find its footing with Windows Phone. In the other corner, Research In Motion (RIMM), a toppled giant steadying itself as it prepares for the fight of its life. Two enter the ring, but only one may emerge as the smartphone war heats up in 2013.

First, a reality check: this will be a long, bloody, drawn-out battle and it is unlikely that either company will emerge as the clear victor this year. RIM will not stroll leisurely out of 2013 having completely reversed course. Microsoft will not end the year with a dominant position in the mobile market, as some had anticipated.

For Microsoft and RIM, 2013 is all about positioning their platforms to succeed moving forward. Android and iOS have deep roots planted across the globe and they will continue to dominate the market for years to come. Their reign cannot and will not last forever, though. And as their momentum slows, a well-positioned third option stands to step in and reap the benefits from the market leaders’ inevitable decline.

But in all likelihood, “there can be only one.”

Let’s look at the tale of the tape: Windows Phone is a sleek and unique platform. It bears no resemblance to traditional mobile operating systems like Android and iOS, instead offering a fresh take on the smartphone user interface. “Live tiles” populate the home screen and offer no-touch, real-time information to the user. Within apps, the UI is text-heavy and easy to navigate.

On the plus side, Windows Phone has distinction, performance and the backing of multiple handset OEMs including Nokia (NOK), HTC (2498) and smartphone giant Samsung — though Samsung has yet to truly take the platform seriously. The star of the Windows Phone show right now is the Lumia 920, and Nokia seems to finally have found some modest success with this sleek handset.

But history does not favor Microsoft. The Windows Phone OS is now more than two years old and the market hasn’t paid it much attention to date. There are a number of reasons, not the least of which are the timing of Microsoft’s launch — Android and iOS were accelerating at breakneck speeds at the time — and a scarcity of apps that continues to plague the platform.

And then there’s RIM.

BlackBerry 10 has some huge advantages over the opposition. For one thing, RIM has a subscriber base of 79 million BlackBerry users to start with. After Windows Mobile crashed and burned so monumentally, Microsoft basically started from the ground floor.

RIM also has managed to build some excitement for its upcoming next-generation smartphones. Investors are excited — though RIM’s recent run may soon be gone in a flash — and users are excited.

And it should be noted that for the most part, we already know exactly what we’re getting from RIM. Its first two BlackBerry 10 smartphones, the BlackBerry Z10 and the BlackBerry X10, have been leaked exhaustively. People already want these phones, which definitely eases the pressure a bit come January 30th.

This is much more than just a battle for third behind Android and iOS. One or both of those leading platforms may soon begin an inevitable slide, and if either Microsoft or RIM is on the rise when that bell curve finally begins to turn south for Android or iOS, it could be a huge catalyst for that company’s continued success.

The smartphone heavyweights will continue to attract much of the attention — and all of the profits — in 2013. But the real fight to watch is in the bantamweight division, where RIM and Microsoft will trade blows in an effort to begin an ascent that could gain steam as iOS and Android lose their shine.

Source:BGR

[SixStringMadness]

But in all likelihood, “there can be only one.”

this thought is easily the biggest reason why people find in necessary to argue over their choice of smartphones....

[RubberChicken76]

this thought is easily the biggest reason why people find in necessary to argue over their choice of smartphones....

Yeah - lots believe it. I don't.

[TomJasper]

Silly BGR, you have the wrong fight card.

BB10 vs Apple/Droid/MS

My prediction, KO in the 12th round by Team BB10.

KO = Team BB10 will be taking back market share from them all.

Funny how different pundits backing their brand try to show another brand as the loser to Team BB10,lol.

Team BB10 is coming for a piece from ya all!

Jan 30 2013 it begins

[josaki]

I posted this because it's a good read. But let's make no mistake, RIM has clearly stated that they're going after a particular section of the market. The mobile market can easily contain all 4 platforms. Choice for us all (hence Blackberry by Choice). RIM will do what they have to do to reinvent themselves. If they get to the #1 spot they get there. If they don't they don't. Once they can remain relevant in the mobile space and also bring in new services that they can make some money from, Blackberry isn't going anywhere.

I like Windows Phone, however, they OS hasn't gained much in stagnant time that RIM hasn't released anything. As far as I am concerned there isn't much of a battle here. The new eco system is getting apps, new devices, and from the few conversations I have had with people around me, once I show them some of the stuff RIM has officially revealed they see themselves buying a Blackberry again. Can the same be said for WP? Not so much.

[southlander]

Sorry I don't buy the premise that someone knows how many platforms there can ever be.

[lorax1284]

The only thing BGR is good for at this point is getting wind of news first and passing it along. (Yep. Passing Wind. That's what BGR does.)

They insist on proving time and time again (and this piece is no exception) that their grasp of how the Mobile OS market works, and how consumers behave, is terrible.

Here's a suggestion to BGR.

Take a "Twister" spinner and put different smartphone buzzwords on and spin the spinner and let that tell you what is going to happen in the smartphone market. Random Chance is likely to get it right more often than you.

Or, just play Twister and stop writing uninformed ***** "opinion" gibberish.

[phinsphan]

At this point phones are consumable goods. There is likely going to be lock-in in the future with Cloud storage and perhaps media collections. But I think the overwhelming majority of people are likely to keep swapping their platform every few years looking for something different.

The one caveat is the app selection has to be similar. With open standards such as HTML5 or even having an OS capable of running another OS's apps I think this is a much different landscape than that which Microsoft, Apple, and IBM fought last time over computers.

Computers were production machines, and very expensive. Not to mention businesses followed standards of using Microsoft and Microsoft products. I'm still not sure the smartphone landscape is so clear cut there can be only 3 platforms. It very well could end up like other consumable goods such as cars, TVs or other consumer items where there are multiple competitors.

[JeepBB]

Silly BGR, you have the wrong fight card.

BB10 vs Apple/Droid/MS

My prediction, KO in the 12th round by Team BB10.

KO = Team BB10 will be taking back market share from them all.

Funny how different pundits backing their brand try to show another brand as the loser to Team BB10,lol.

Team BB10 is coming for a piece from ya all!

Jan 30 2013 it begins

Your prediction of how it will go is as valid as anyone else's I guess but, in a reality where Thor himself states that RIM are aiming to fill the #3 spot, your view might be just a little optimistic.

I've never understood the BGR-hate that goes on hereabouts. BGR have come up with some genuine scoops in the past (PB OS2 delays being one I recall all too well!) that were thoroughly rubbished here before later being confirmed as truth.

The OP's quoted story states that the #3 player is likely to be well-positioned to scoop the prize when either Apple or Android start to lose their shine - and that's undeniably and obviously true. That "fall from grace" of Apple/Android won't happen in 2013 (as BGR also says), and may not happen in 2014, (Apple looking "shaky" to anyone right now?) but history tells it will happen one day... and the #3 occupant moves up - which is presumably why RIM's stated objective is to be #3 in 2013.

As others have said, there's room in the market for more than three players, so I don't agree with BGR on that point. If you can make money with 4% of the market and be #4, then "making money" is the important aspect, not the fact of missing out on being #1, #2, #3.

It does all start on January 30th... but from some of what I've seen posted here, you'd imagine that all 80M BB subscribers will have bought a BB10 phone on day 1, millions of iPhone owners throw their "obsolete tech" down in disgust and buy BB10 phones, and RIM's comeback will be complete by mid-February!

[Dapper37]

I find the lack of RIM data and knowledge on the differentiation that RIM will bring to the market sad, coming from a site that claims to understand technology.
At the same time, the contender in the corner to my right (RIM) Has all the more going for them moving forward once the masses figure it out!

[kill_9]

Computers were production machines, and very expensive. Not to mention businesses followed standards of using Microsoft and Microsoft products.

Today, in the smartphone marketplace Microsoft Office remains the de facto standard used by businesses and large organisations. Smartphones are expensive without wireless carrier contracts especially BlackBerry smartphones which are expensive even with a three-year contract. RIM still believes the BlackBerry brand justifies premium pricing; this is non-sense yet the self-delusion persists.

[magutwit]

I actually don't think in these two separate clashes : Samsung/Apple and Rim/Ms. And why should it? Are the BB users quitting only for a WP or Samsung users quitting only for an iPhone? Seriously, I think that both leaders will stay leaders and both challengers will survive and and strengthen their positions (the only thing that will change will be the numbers, the leaders part will shrink a bit and the challengers' one will grow a bit).

Sent from my BlackBerry using Tapatalk

[kbz1960]

There can only be one. Bullsheet

[cbvinh]

RIM still believes the BlackBerry brand justifies premium pricing; this is non-sense yet the self-delusion persists.

It's a lot easier to price at a premium and lower it later, if sales aren't enough, than start at a low price, which commits you to volume sales. Not so much a delusion as normal marketing practice.