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  1. advcomputer's Avatar
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    Default BB10's Potential For Success

    BB10's Potential For Success
    BB10's Potential For Success - Seeking Alpha

    [.. BB10's Potential For Success
    December 7, 2012 | about: RIMM, includes: NOK
    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)

    There is no end to the ups and downs in Research in Motion (RIMM)'s stock price, and this time there is a surprising surge in the share price. The significantly positive impact on the stocks was witnessed immediately after an upgrade of RIM's rating by Goldman Sachs. The share price rose by 6.6% on Thursday (29 November) in the morning trade. The share price has been following an upward trend since then and it reached its peak at $12.15 on Thursday (6 December). The rating was upgraded due to the optimism regarding the success of BlackBerry10 which is set to be launched in January.

    The current market price of RIM's stock is within the range of $11.62 and $12.18, and the target price for the stock is set at $18 which is very close to RIM's 52 week peak which stands at $18.77. Following the reiterated target price, the doubts regarding the company prospective financial performance cleared among the investors and RIM's stocks were back in the trade. ..]

    More: BB10's Potential For Success - Seeking Alpha
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  2. kill_9's Avatar
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    ...is not guaranteed. Research In Motion must launch BlackBerry 10 without any hiccups and minus any of their usual "coming soon" excuses. At this point nobody using a BlackBerry product or service owes the company anything; it is entirely in the hands of the company to demonstrate reasons we should even consider BlackBerry 10 related products and services. All the hype in then world will not replace the harsh cold reality of people having these devices in their hands and organizations trying to integrate them into their messaging and mobile computing infrastructures. On 31 January 2013, the truth will have been exposed after the official launch of 30 January 2013. Does the emperor wear clothes? For the sake of our collective mental health let's hope an affirmative response is at the stead.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BB9700CA View Post
    ...is not guaranteed. Research In Motion must launch BlackBerry 10 without any hiccups and minus any of their usual "coming soon" excuses. At this point nobody using a BlackBerry product or service owes the company anything; it is entirely in the hands of the company to demonstrate reasons we should even consider BlackBerry 10 related products and services. All the hype in then world will not replace the harsh cold reality of people having these devices in their hands and organizations trying to integrate them into their messaging and mobile computing infrastructures. On 31 January 2013, the truth will have been exposed after the official launch of 30 January 2013. Does the emperor wear clothes? For the sake of our collective mental health let's hope an affirmative response is at the stead.
    Absolutely, these are important considerations. Whether we like it as a community or not, RIM has made some breathtakingly bad mistakes in the past few years and they've lost a lot of credibility as a result.

    That said, I have my own reasons for hanging in as a customer, as an investor, and as a budding developer. I see a company that still has a lot of smart, talented, driven people. I see them owning several key technologies that they can leverage in the coming years, and in the leaks we've seen so far I've seen thoughtful design and genuine innovation that I know will be compelling for at least SOME customers.

    Maybe most importantly, I've seen from senior RIM management a refreshingly honest outlook on how the company has come to the condition it's currently in, and some sense of what they have to do to come back. Heins' first public appearance as RIM CEO was at DevCon Europe, and he presented a face that was at once clearly aware of the challenges RIM faced, but also quietly confident in the company's ability to manage those challenges. 2012 has been a very difficult year for RIM; under other management it could have easily been shut down and the pieces sold off. However BB10 winds up being received by the market, I think the effort just to get it on sale has been unprecedented. I'm honestly in awe of what they've been able to do in the face of adversity.

    I believe that RIM has done everything they can to make this launch a success.
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  4. steven4u2nv's Avatar
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    While I agree that BB10 has all the potential in the world, I think the one thing that is missing is a great marketing campaign. Other than those of us who care about RIM and BB10 there are few people that are aware that BB is coming out with something different. It doesn't matter how great BB10 will be if no one knows it exists. I really hope that BB has a solid plan that is completely different from what it did in the past. The marketing division should have some fresh faces and a boat load of expertise to ensure BB10 gets the chance to go toe-to-toe with IOS and Android by Samsung.
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    Quote Originally Posted by steven4u2nv View Post
    While I agree that BB10 has all the potential in the world, I think the one thing that is missing is a great marketing campaign. Other than those of us who care about RIM and BB10 there are few people that are aware that BB is coming out with something different. It doesn't matter how great BB10 will be if no one knows it exists. I really hope that BB has a solid plan that is completely different from what it did in the past. The marketing division should have some fresh faces and a boat load of expertise to ensure BB10 gets the chance to go toe-to-toe with IOS and Android by Samsung.
    The marketing campaign has been going on all year. It started with developer relations, because nothing RIM can do will build more value than a decent app portfolio.

    In terms of what we'll see as we approach the release date, hard to tell, but considering that the company is pretty much riding on this launch (and they've got a new Chief Marketing Officer, remember), I'm pretty sure they've got an ambitious campaign planned.
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    I'm set up to get these emails from alpha for RIMM and others like NOK, so I already saw this. Anyways I agree, I figure even if BB10's a fluke, all the hype building will help the stock up until its launch.
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    I'm hoping the 'potential' for BB10 works out differently this time around than the 'potential' of the previous product launches... ie. playbook, bb7, storm. I can't help to feel like I get caught up in this hype each time they launch a product and then am let down by the actual results. This BB10 launch better be more than just hot air.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmyzzz View Post
    I'm hoping the 'potential' for BB10 works out differently this time around than the 'potential' of the previous product launches... ie. playbook, bb7, storm. I can't help to feel like I get caught up in this hype each time they launch a product and then am let down by the actual results. This BB10 launch better be more than just hot air.
    It wouldn't be hard to manage a better launch than the Playbook's; MBA students will be writing papers for years to come on how badly that was managed.

    There are many reasons to believe that BB10's launch will be a better one:

    1) Tablets were a whole new market segment for RIM when they introduced the Playbook. Phones, OTOH, they've been doing for years, and doing well. They have a whole population of customers, many of whom actually NEED a new phone. Nobody "needed" a Playbook.

    2) BB10 is being introduced on RIM's own terms, on their own time. The Playbook was rushed to market in a highly misguided attempt to go head-to-head with iPad 2 (which they STILL managed to miss by 3 weeks). I think RIM would be in a very different position right now had they held off for even a few months and cooled down the hype.

    3) BB10 is practically guaranteed to sell better than the Playbook. Again, worldwide there's a greater need for a handset than there is for a tablet for most individuals. We know that the number of BB10 handsets will surpass the number of Playbooks in a matter of weeks. Because of this, more software developers WILL release software. Even without this influence, there are tens of thousands of BB10 apps just from what's arrived for the Playbook in the past year and a half. So, for instance, nobody will be able to complain that Angry Birds isn't there. The app portfolio will be considerably more attractive.

    The most important thing in looking at RIM's track record of the past few years: they've done an excellent job of hitting their targets since Heins took over. Not 100% perfect, because they'd promised BB7 Theme Studio and eventually had to admit it wasn't coming, and the Playbook OS 2.1 release came a few months later than originally hinted, but I think these are the only lapses. Several other major releases made it out on time. This is worth remembering.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thunderbuck View Post
    The most important thing in looking at RIM's track record of the past few years: they've done an excellent job of hitting their targets since Heins took over. Not 100% perfect, because they'd promised BB7 Theme Studio and eventually had to admit it wasn't coming, and the Playbook OS 2.1 release came a few months later than originally hinted, but I think these are the only lapses. Several other major releases made it out on time. This is worth remembering.


    You seem to have forgotten to add the latest BB10 delay to the list of missed dates since he has been CEO. On July 6 2012 Thorsten Heins said, “We decided to delay the launch of BlackBerry 10 (to 2013) to give us ample time to integrate software, test, and polish the final product.”

    People often act like Mr. Heins appeared from nowhere Jan 22, 2012. A fresh face for a fresh start. In fact he was been senior management at RIM since 2008.

    RIM experience:
    -Joined RIM in December 2007, becoming senior vice-president for the handheld business unit.
    -In 2011 he became one of two chief operating officers, specializing in product engineering in both the hardware and software divisions.
    -The company announced Jan. 22 2012 that he would be the new CEO.

    To be clear, I hope Mr. Heins is the second coming. I used to love the Hoovering sound of greenbacks pouring north for something besides oil and raw lumber. We've (Canada) got to come up with more than $40 billion for 65 F-35 fighters. A collapsed RIM won't help pay the bill.

    I will reserve judgement on his leadership abilities until next summer.
  10. Jake Storm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimmyzzz View Post
    I'm hoping the 'potential' for BB10 works out differently this time around than the 'potential' of the previous product launches... ie. playbook, bb7, storm. I can't help to feel like I get caught up in this hype each time they launch a product and then am let down by the actual results. This BB10 launch better be more than just hot air.
    You want us to believe that you were caught up in the hype for the Storm, BB7, and PlayBook, but you just joined CrackBerry 3 days ago... riiiiight!

    Man the shills are out in full force. The eminent launch of BB10 really has the other players nervous.
    RIM is dead. Long live BlackBerry!
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    Quote Originally Posted by uranium hexaflouride View Post
    You seem to have forgotten to add the latest BB10 delay to the list of missed dates since he has been CEO. On July 6 2012 Thorsten Heins said, “We decided to delay the launch of BlackBerry 10 (to 2013) to give us ample time to integrate software, test, and polish the final product.”

    People often act like Mr. Heins appeared from nowhere Jan 22, 2012. A fresh face for a fresh start. In fact he was been senior management at RIM since 2008.

    RIM experience:
    -Joined RIM in December 2007, becoming senior vice-president for the handheld business unit.
    -In 2011 he became one of two chief operating officers, specializing in product engineering in both the hardware and software divisions.
    -The company announced Jan. 22 2012 that he would be the new CEO.

    To be clear, I hope Mr. Heins is the second coming. I used to love the Hoovering sound of greenbacks pouring north for something besides oil and raw lumber. We've (Canada) got to come up with more than $40 billion for 65 F-35 fighters. A collapsed RIM won't help pay the bill.

    I will reserve judgement on his leadership abilities until next summer.
    No, you're right, pushing back the BB10 launch WAS a major delay, and I should have counted that.

    I continue to believe, though, that the delay was as much strategic as much as anything else. Heins himself has publicly stated that they COULD have met that Q4 target, but that the delay gave more time for polish and refinement.

    As well, Q4 in 2012 has proven to be an unusually busy quarter for new products. Sure, there was the iPhone 5, which was basically a scheduled event--we could have seen it coming a year ago, but there were also a number of extraordinary roll-outs, including the Wii U (how often does Nintendo release a new console?), and Microsoft had WP8, Surface, and Windows 8. Heins said that "the carriers told him" that Q1 2013 would be better, but I doubt he needed a lot of convincing.

    What's great about that timing is that there has been some "resistance" to WP8, Windows 8, Surface, and even Apple to some degree, which means that if RIM makes any kind of decent impression at all with BB10 that they might be able to take advantage of that disappointment.
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    Quote Originally Posted by steven4u2nv View Post
    While I agree that BB10 has all the potential in the world, I think the one thing that is missing is a great marketing campaign. Other than those of us who care about RIM and BB10 there are few people that are aware that BB is coming out with something different. It doesn't matter how great BB10 will be if no one knows it exists. I really hope that BB has a solid plan that is completely different from what it did in the past. The marketing division should have some fresh faces and a boat load of expertise to ensure BB10 gets the chance to go toe-to-toe with IOS and Android by Samsung.
    Frank Boulben, the new CMO is a fresh new face at RIM and has completely restructured the marketing and sales teams at RIM to create a strong global marketing force and single message around the world. This change alone will be a dramatic shift from previous marketing efforts by RIM. Frank is not a long time RIM insider and was hired from outside the company specifically to guide RIM in a new direction. His resume is impressive and he has led teams responsible for multibillion dollar deals. But he his experience is more with carriers then with consumers. So while he will likely make sure that BlackBerry 10 is available on more carriers in more countries then it may have been, we have yet to see if he has the chops to craft a really solid consumer campaign that will not only attract current BlackBerry people but also users of other platforms and people who may still be on the fence about which smart phone platform to buy into. He couldn't possibly do any worse then RIM has done in the past few years though so he's virtually guaranteed success by RIM's marketing standards.
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    Blah blah blah... Honestly, I'm sick of reading all these thoughts from everyone else who thinks they know best / better and what RIM should / shouldn't do. No one knows. It's all up in the air and no one will know until BlackBerry 10 gets out the door and into the hands of consumers, then we'll finally see. The only thing interesting about reading all this stuff now is seeing who flip flopped their original thoughts from "RIM is dead" to "RIM just might have a chance".
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bla1ze View Post
    Blah blah blah... Honestly, I'm sick of reading all these thoughts from everyone else who thinks they know best / better and what RIM should / shouldn't do. No one knows. It's all up in the air and no one will know until BlackBerry 10 gets out the door and into the hands of consumers, then we'll finally see. The only thing interesting about reading all this stuff now is seeing who flip flopped their original thoughts from "RIM is dead" to "RIM just might have a chance".
    If everyone felt like you though Vegas and Wall St would go broke lol

    People love to speculate about outcomes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bla1ze View Post
    Blah blah blah... .
    Yep, that about sums it up, however......

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bla1ze View Post
    Blah blah blah... Honestly, I'm sick of reading all these thoughts from everyone else who thinks they know best / better and what RIM should / shouldn't do. No one knows. It's all up in the air and no one will know until BlackBerry 10 gets out the door and into the hands of consumers, then we'll finally see. The only thing interesting about reading all this stuff now is seeing who flip flopped their original thoughts from "RIM is dead" to "RIM just might have a chance".
    Of course RIM has a chance, but the most hopeful of analysts still peg it at 30%, which to me is extremely high. I suppose it depends on what they mean by "has a chance." My impression is that 80% of the 30% is that RIM has a chance to increase its market capitalization before they "unlock shareholder value" by splitting themselves apart.

    The problem here is that RIM, as a company, has gone from trail-blazer to irrelevance. It's very hard to migrate back into the relevant category. Apple came back, but not in the same sector. They still don't rule in home desktops. Yes, they maintained some market share, but their real recovery didn't happen until the iPod. Do you want to look back at the history of great tech companies that never recovered? Digital Equipment Corporation comes to mind. All of the great tech implosions were caused by competitors who decided to provide a more comprehensive solution, thus destroying the dinosaur companies that preceded them.

    For RIM to succeed, not only do they have to maintain market share in the smartphone market, but they need to leverage their technology and pull a "Jobs" somehow. Otherwise, what I see happening now is RIM trying to increase their market cap before they sell the farm.

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