[hurds]

Is Apple the Next Sony or the Next RIM? (AAPL)

Looks like its not just RIM with bad news.

[xandermac]

Link appears to be dead, I'm sure it was good though, they usually have good opinion pieces.

[MartyMcfly]

Is Apple the Next Sony or the Next RIM?
By Anders Bylund (TMFZahrim) | More Articles
May 15, 2012 | Comments (9)

Let's take a little trip down memory lane.
It's Jan. 9, 2007. Legendary Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL ) CEO Steve Jobs has just presented the first iPhone, sparking a smartphone market that still unfolds some five years later. The established leaders in high-end handset wizardry at the time are Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM ) and Nokia (NYSE: NOK ) , though Americans might be forgiven for recognizing the BlackBerry fever faster than the more global Symbian phenomenon.
It's all good. A rising tide lifts all boats, but Apple's more than others. The whole sector is on the rise.
That is, until the next holiday season reveals Apple as the obvious winner in the early smartphone wars. Nokia and RIM failed to adjust to the new reality, and this is what happened:


NOK and RIMM Market Caps data by YCharts
This was unthinkable five years ago. The CrackBerry craze seemed unstoppable. Nokia owned a $150 billion market cap on a parabolic rise. Apple knew nothing about mobile phones. How could an iPod Touch with some phone circuits possibly challenge the entrenched top dogs?
But that's what happened. Today, RIM and Nokia are on life support while Apple is the world's largest company by market cap. There's no stopping the Cupertino cash machine.
Stop me if you've heard that one before
History is apt to repeat itself, my friends. Apple and Android are killing the Nokia and BlackBerry platforms, which already destroyed Palm, pagers, and PDAs. There's always another revolution waiting just around the corner. How do you know Apple's head won't be next on the chopping block?
I know, you've heard this song before: The sky is falling, the wolves are coming for real this time, Apple is too big to fail. Go home, you eternal Apple bear, Chicken Little, boy who cried wolf.
Laugh it off if you want, but don't act too surprised when Cupertino's collapse comes. It's been lonely here in the land of Apple skeptics, but that's changing as we speak.
Listen to this broken record
You might remember High-Tech Strategist editor Fred Hickey as the guy who called the demise of RIM before it happened. Here's a clip from fellow fool Rick Munarriz's take on that call:
"RIM has a market valuation of $75 billion, but just 1% of the cell phone market. Nokia has a market cap of $100 billion, and a 40% market share. What kind of upside is there at this valuation?" Sure, he didn't point out how RIM milks a whole lot more out of every BlackBerry user, but it's an interesting point.
Chilling, isn't it? Collecting the lion's share of smartphone profits on a minuscule market share didn't work out so well for RIM in the end. Why would Apple be any different?
Indeed, Hickey is back with harsh analysis of the new profit leader. The latest installment of his newsletter says that the "parabolic fever" for Apple stock has broken, perhaps forever. "If so, Apple's stock will continue to break down, frustrating the Appleholics who will buy on every dip, citing the 'low' valuations," Hickey says. "They will buy it all the way down."
Hickey's motivations for shorting Apple ring all too true: "Only in hindsight (years later) will they know that Apple's $600 billion valuation could not be sustained, that Apple is a consumer product company subject to the whims of consumers. That Apple sells commodity type products: phones, PCs and PC-type products (tablets) where margins could not possibly be sustained at current levels."
That's the ultimate insult for many Apple fans. Have you ever thought of Apple as a simple commodity player? But it's true. If every iPhone suddenly disappeared from the market today, you could pick up an Android or a Windows phone instead. The Macbook Air is a fine machine, but Intel (Nasdaq: INTC ) presents the Ultrabook form factor as a solid alternative. The chip champ is pouring $300 million into marketing the concept. iPads own the tablet market, but is it because they're so much better than the Android competition, or is it simply a result of brilliant marketing with a first-mover advantage?
Delete the iPhone, iPad, and Mac from today's markets, and they would surely be missed -- but they would be easily replaced. "Commodity" may be a strong word to use here, but that's the way the cookie is crumbling now.
Apple's dilemma
Clay Christensen wrote The Innovator's Dilemma, reportedly one of Steve Jobs' favorite books. He's worried about what remains of Jobs' brainchild.
Apple runs a tightly integrated business model, where the company controls every piece of the puzzle with an iron grip and everything links back to the iTunes hub. It's great while it works, but it's destined to fail: "The transition from proprietary architecture to open, modular architecture just happens over and over again," Christensen recently said on the Critical Path podcast. And Apple is in danger of becoming another Sony (NYSE: SNE ) , protecting successful products at the expense of missing out on the next revolution.
As a reminder, Sony's earnings peaked at $1.8 billion in 1998 before the wheels fell off. In the just-reported 2012 fiscal year, Sony lost $4.8 billion. Apple's stakes are higher by an order of magnitude, but it's clear that Cupertino doesn't want to copy Sony's failures.
But wait -- there's more!
Other observers expect mobile-network operators to stop cutting such generous subsidy checks for each iPhone sold, instantly slashing Apple's margins at the kneecaps. Share prices would soon follow suit.
The Loomis Sayles Growth Fund isn't buying Apple shares. "In the end, we believe that its margins, market share and the business model are not sustainable," fund manager Aziz Hamzaogullari told CBS News. Receding subsidies play a large part in his gloomy conclusion.
The Pax World Growth Fund owns Apple but isn't a buyer right now. Manager Tony Trzcina explains why: "Its revenue projections assume that every new product introduction will be a hit." That's a big worry given how often Apple replaces each of its major product lines with a new model -- what happens if the iPhone 5 is a dud? Or the iPad 4? Apple can hardly afford to replace a winning model with a stinker, but it's bound to happen someday.
Apple is fighting an epic battle against history while trying to avoid some very scary pitfalls here. CEO Tim Cook could very well solve every problem discussed here, but he stares down some long odds. Chances are, several of these factors will combine to bring Cupertino back to earth.
You don't have to expose yourself to all of Apple's risk factors to invest in the trillion-dollar mobile-computing revolution. The Fool's finest analysts lay out the case for an alternative smartphone and tablet play in this special report. Read it to understand what really drives this market, but grab your copy quick -- the report won't be free forever.
The Steve Jobs Betrayal
You may already know that in the final year of his life, Jobs revealed a stunning betrayal — and told his biographer, "I will spend my last dying breath... and every penny of Apple's $40 billion in the bank to right this wrong." What was it that made Jobs so irate — and why could it make a few in-the-know investors some major profits over the coming months and years?

Enter your email address below to find out what made Jobs so enraged!

Fool contributor Anders Bylund holds no position in any of the companies mentioned. Check out Anders' holdings and bio, or follow him on Twitter and Google+. The Motley Fool owns shares of Intel and Apple and has sold shares of Sony short. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Apple, Intel, and Nokia and creating a bull call spread position in Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Sent from my IPhone 4s using The Hand Of God

[addicted44]

I don't think Apple is the "next RIM" at all (btw, is RIM the next RIM? It isn't dead yet, and BB10 could still bring it back into strong contention).

The major difference between Apple and RIM is that Apple has several tech vectors in which they contend, i.e., Mac, iPod, iPhone and iPad. RIM was pretty much limited to Blackberries, and associated service revenue.

[xandermac]

My assumption was correct, it was a good article. My opinion is that the biggest threat to Apple is Apple. They're slow & stubborn. The iPhone is starting to look a bit stale in todays market. They're keeping up, but only just. It might not be too long before people start looking for an alternative. However the problem there is all about eco-system. Whomever wants to step up & take Apples spot had better have a similar (or better) eco-system in place or they'll get nowhere.

[qbnkelt]

Does it begin now?

Samsung gets 9 million preorders for new Galaxy phone: report - Technology & science - Wireless - msnbc.com

[xandermac]

Does it begin now?

Samsung gets 9 million preorders for new Galaxy phone: report - Technology & science - Wireless - msnbc.com

It's quite possible, the mighty usually fall. Doesn't really matter to me, Market share doesn't affect me directly. However, I hope the strategy won't be to wait for Apple to fail before trying to succeed because it could also prove to be a very long wait.

[_StephenBB81]

I liked the Article

I wouldn't really equate Apple to RIM / Nokia but more to the Sony.
My distaste for Apple is the SAME distaste I have for Sony, and it has been that way since I was in my teens, Always the proprietary add ons, and the WE KNOW BETTER attitude.

Do I think Apple runs the Risk of Sony and falling from grace? yes, do I think they'll ever hit near take over talks of RIM, or near penny stocks of Nokia? nope.
Apple has a good following, Apple has a working Desktop OS with a good core, and there is a 5%-10% market share in the PC space that will always be theirs.

the iPhone / iPad could soon fall from grace, and become just another slab phone, there could come a day when the slab phone is looked upon like the flip phone is today as a passing craze, who knows!

would I short Apple today? Naaa, I really don't think I ever would, when they take a hit it will be a shock on an earnings call, they will be able to give an illusion of an amazing launch even if it doesn't hold true.

[morlock_man]

They'd need to replace Tim Cook with someone with vision.

Big tech companies shouldn't by run by MBAs. They might know how to increase efficiency, but without that vision they tend to stagnate.

[sleepngbear]

The only way Apple won't "come down to earth" at some point is if Apple is the one to start the next tech revolution. IPhone was arguably the last one. The next one is likely something that not many are yet considering; and when it happens, everybody will be smacking their heads saying "why didn't I think of that." But Apple does get a bit of a pass because of its present dominant market position. If they don't come up with the next big thing, they will still likely survive, but not as the darlings of the tech world they currently are.

[FRG_RC]

The only way Apple won't "come down to earth" at some point is if Apple is the one to start the next tech revolution. IPhone was arguably the last one. The next one is likely something that not many are yet considering; and when it happens, everybody will be smacking their heads saying "why didn't I think of that." But Apple does get a bit of a pass because of its present dominant market position. If they don't come up with the next big thing, they will still likely survive, but not as the darlings of the tech world they currently are.

I totally agree.

[Tre Lawrence]

It's quite possible, the mighty usually fall. Doesn't really matter to me, Market share doesn't affect me directly. However, I hope the strategy won't be to wait for Apple to fail before trying to succeed because it could also prove to be a very long wait.

I mostly agree. Looking up from a couch waiting on satellites to fall can be very dissatisfying.

OP said they were going to find a bunch of negative articles about Apple. Keep em coming!

[DeonADB]

They will fall in the smartphone industry but they will still have other source(s) of making money and then if BB survive this in the next 5-10 years us bb fanboys might be in this position again.

Sent from my BlackBerry Curve 8520 using Crackberry Forum App

[morlock_man]

They're too late though.

The wifi bridge between 2 QNX pcs allows them to function like one. There's so many features you can create to save power and maximize performance between the two devices.

Mobile power profiling thats aware which device is in use and which might be plugged in, transferring all background processes to the powered device and enforcing strict low power requirements (HUD only unless requested) to the mobile device to maximize battery life. Once out of wifi range, (heading out for lunch) the mobile device drops back into standalone mode but can still recieve updates from the tablet via cellular connection.The ability of a microkernel to simply turn off and on unneeded services is one that monolithic kernels can't surpass.

Instead of the iPhone and iPad model where both devices operate only a single monolithic basis, the BB10 platform could put them both on the same foundation, allowing them to share information and processing power. It's whats missing from the real mobile office.

[alnamvet68]

The only way Apple won't "come down to earth" at some point is if Apple is the one to start the next tech revolution. IPhone was arguably the last one. The next one is likely something that not many are yet considering; and when it happens, everybody will be smacking their heads saying "why didn't I think of that." But Apple does get a bit of a pass because of its present dominant market position. If they don't come up with the next big thing, they will still likely survive, but not as the darlings of the tech world they currently are.

I would argue that Apple "borrowed" from well established MP3 players, created by other tech giants, and, not of their design I might add, and called it an iPod; within a few short years, the iPod Touch came about, and when Apple saw Touch users finding all manner of ways to use the Touch as a telephone through 3rd party apps, then, and only then did Apple decide to add a radio to the iPod and call it an iPhone. IMHO, Apple didn't create anything...they simply took existing hardware and "borrowed" the user's ideas.

[sleepngbear]

I would argue that Apple "borrowed" from well established MP3 players, created by other tech giants, and, not of their design I might add, and called it an iPod; within a few short years, the iPod Touch came about, and when Apple saw Touch users finding all manner of ways to use the Touch as a telephone through 3rd party apps, then, and only then did Apple decide to add a radio to the iPod and call it an iPhone. IMHO, Apple didn't create anything...they simply took existing hardware and "borrowed" the user's ideas.

Maybe. But even if Apple didn't create the concept, they packaged and sold it as no one else at the time thought possible. I believe Lazaridis said as much when an iPhone was first rumored (and kept on thinking it even after it was introduced!). The next big thing will be a similarly simple confluence of technologies in concept that will need someone with a unique kind of vision to know how to package and market it in order to make it the next big thing. That could be Apple, it could be RIM, or it could me two guys in a garage that nobody's ever heard of. Heck, it could even be deRusett.

[adrenaline_x]

The Next Tech Revolution may be the Automobile Entertaintment system. Rim may be positioned well already with their QNX system as its a foundation for some systems.. But blowing it wide open by launching BB10 on tablets, phones and in Cars could be pretty impressive if you have the same experince and the ability to run all your purchased apps on all your BB devices, and your car.. How Awesome would that be?

You bought angry birds for you phone, You have it on your playbook and when you kids are in the back seat they can play it on the head rests infront of you.. One stop shop for you life.. Tablet/Pc, Mobile, Car.

Can Rimm make it happen? maybe. Looks like there have been hints made in the past 6 months about it. If you car has BB10 in it and you are used to it, chances are you are looking at a BB10 phone if the specs meet your needs and a tablet would get more attention.. .. If you can dock your tablet in your car as you Enteraintment unit that runs you entertainment system.. WIN!

I don't Think Rim is dead.

[Laura Knotek]

I would argue that Apple "borrowed" from well established MP3 players, created by other tech giants, and, not of their design I might add, and called it an iPod; within a few short years, the iPod Touch came about, and when Apple saw Touch users finding all manner of ways to use the Touch as a telephone through 3rd party apps, then, and only then did Apple decide to add a radio to the iPod and call it an iPhone. IMHO, Apple didn't create anything...they simply took existing hardware and "borrowed" the user's ideas.

I agree with you. I had a Sandisk MP3 player, not an iPod.

What helped Apple at that time was DRM in iTunes. It was easier to buy songs from iTunes than from other stores, and iTunes songs would not play on other MP3 players due to DRM. Yes, there were workarounds, but most people would rather just get an iPod than try to make their iTunes songs play on another device.

By the time Apple dropped DRM in iTunes, the iPod had already crushed all the other MP3 players.

[lexluthorxx]

My assumption was correct, it was a good article. My opinion is that the biggest threat to Apple is Apple. They're slow & stubborn. The iPhone is starting to look a bit stale in todays market. They're keeping up, but only just. It might not be too long before people start looking for an alternative. However the problem there is all about eco-system. Whomever wants to step up & take Apples spot had better have a similar (or better) eco-system in place or they'll get nowhere.

I think its a great article and i agree with you its only a matter of time before the market place realizes that APPLE isn't the only skin in the game. I'm quite sure Apple knows that eventually people will tire of continually needing to "buy" the newest ipad incarnation or perhaps Apple thinks the 'sheep' will buy whatever they present and they have...so far.

[OzarkaTexile]

I think its a great article and i agree with you its only a matter of time before the market place realizes that APPLE isn't the only skin in the game. I'm quite sure Apple knows that eventually people will tire of continually needing to "buy" the newest ipad incarnation or perhaps Apple thinks the 'sheep' will buy whatever they present and they have...so far.

Calling their customers "sheep" is delusional.

Apple makes the best products on the market and the rest of the industry follows. That's not to say that other companies don't innovate or that Apple's lead will last forever. But right now, they are the leaders. Intel created an entire Ultrabook program to help Windows PC manufacturers copy the MacBook Air. The PlayBook was a response to the iPad. Almost every smart phone on the market is a copy of the full touch screen design of the original iPhone. If Apple's customers are sheep, then RIM management is part of the flock, because they are attempting to follow Apple at every turn.

[sleepngbear]

Calling their customers "sheep" is delusional.

Apple makes the best products on the market and the rest of the industry follows.

Now this is delusional. And I am a Mac user.

Good products, yes. Best marketed products, yes. Best selling products, some. Best products, nnnnnnah.

[Rickroller]

The Next Tech Revolution may be the Automobile Entertaintment system. Rim may be positioned well already with their QNX system as its a foundation for some systems.. But blowing it wide open by launching BB10 on tablets, phones and in Cars could be pretty impressive if you have the same experince and the ability to run all your purchased apps on all your BB devices, and your car.. How Awesome would that be?

You bought angry birds for you phone, You have it on your playbook and when you kids are in the back seat they can play it on the head rests infront of you.. One stop shop for you life.. Tablet/Pc, Mobile, Car.

What kind of apps are you going to be using while driving? There are already distracted driving laws taking effect everywhere, and most passengers would just as soon use their tablet or phone while sitting shotgun in the vehicle than swipe a head rest imo.

Integrated apps I could see being somewhat useful in a vehicle..for keeping track of things like oil changes, fuel consumption, or other car related things. But common phone apps? I just don't see it being overly useful, and definately not something that is going to resurrect a company.

[Laura Knotek]

That's true about distracted driving laws. Ohio just passed a ban on texting while driving.

Sent from my Lumia 900 using Board Express

[morlock_man]

How about fridges running QNX that keep track of things like how many eggs you have left so you can have a grocery list automatically uploaded to your phone.

[avt123]

Calling their customers "sheep" is delusional.

Apple makes the best products on the market and the rest of the industry follows. That's not to say that other companies don't innovate or that Apple's lead will last forever. But right now, they are the leaders. Intel created an entire Ultrabook program to help Windows PC manufacturers copy the MacBook Air. The PlayBook was a response to the iPad. Almost every smart phone on the market is a copy of the full touch screen design of the original iPhone. If Apple's customers are sheep, then RIM management is part of the flock, because they are attempting to follow Apple at every turn.

Yes, calling all the customers "sheep" is delusional. Saying Apple has the "best products on the market" is also delusional.

Very popular products? Definitely. The best? That is all opinion.

The iPhone has the highest user satisfaction rating out of all the smartphones on the market. Does that mean it is the best (hardware, ecosystem, functionality, build quality)? No it does not. If it is the best for the user buying it, that is all that matters.

I love my MacBook Pro and thought it was the best laptop on the market at the time. For me. Clearly there were other laptops on the market that were much more powerful. Let's not mention they also came with Windows, which the majority of the world uses.