Android and Apple gain against RIM and Microsoft losses, says Comscore

[vlade31]

If this continues, this time next year RIM will be down to 4-5% US Smartphone marketshare.

Via theverge.com


Android and Apple gain against RIM and Microsoft losses, says Comscore | The Verge

Comscore's numbers for the US mobile phone industry are out showing performance over the last three months ending in November. The MobiLens study, based on data culled from 30,000 US mobile subscribers, identifies Samsung as the top manufacture of both smartphones and non-smartphones in the US. The South Korean company garnered a 25.6 percent share representing a 0.3 point bump since the August report. LG's not far behind with 20.5 percent, followed by Motorola (13.7 percent), Apple (11.2 percent), and RIM (6.5 percent). Notably, Apple had the largest growth in the category, rising 1.4 percentage points from its 9.8 percent share in August as 234 million Americans age 13 and older increasingly choose smartphones over feature- and dumb-phones.

The more profitable smartphone category shows Google's Android platform dominating the market with a 46.9 percent share to Apple's 28.7 percent, with Android outpacing iOS phones with a 3.1 percentage point increase to Apple's 1.4. RIM was the biggest loser, dropping from a 19.7 percent market share in August to 16.6 percent in November. Still well above Microsoft's 5.2 percent share, however, which continues to fall even after the release of its Windows Phone Mango OS update.

[NJPhilliesPhan]

RIM is losing ground quick, without a quick release of BB10 I dont see how they can stop the bleeding. We must also keep in mind that the US consumer may reject a BB10 device that doesnt have a strong eco system similar to Android and Apple. Microsoft may pull into third place just because they have the money to burn, that is not the case with RIM. Its not going to be a smooth ride for RIM in 2012, if BB10 fails they could only survive in the USA with an Android powered BB.

[EchoTango]

I think RIM is going to continue to lose marketshare until it either announces BB10 and/or gives customers a BB7 product transition roadmap.

Unless they answer the questions around the potential of making all current applications and hardware obsolete when BB10 arrives, the current BB7 devices will not sell.

[Palmless]

Rebuttals to this and any similar article (with hat tips to original authors)

- RIM is very profitable.

- Apple came back from the dead once.

- Amateur hour is over.

- Blackberry is professional grade.

- This report is US-centric. Look at this from the viewpoint of Sub-Saharan Africa and you'll see a very different story.

- BB vii is perfect and needs nothing, who needs fart apps.

- X/10 will fix everything and run tons of apps.

[anthogag]

Some of this comes down to marketing. Consumers are seeing a lot of iPhone/android advertising and nothing from BlackBerry.

A marketing campaign should show US customers that BB is another very good choice.

[Palmless]

Originally Posted by anthogag

Some of this comes down to marketing. Consumers are seeing a lot of iPhone/android advertising and nothing from BlackBerry.

Photos from two days ago in Times Square. Entire building was covered for about five minutes every fifteen minutes, twenty-four hours per day, the entire week I was there. Several stories high, full color full motion video. Not cheap.

In addition to the non-stop print and television ads.

The difference is that Apple ads show the product in use, which causes folks to want the product. That won't work for RIM (can you imagine explaining BB bridge in a 30 second TV spot? "If you have our Playbook, and you have these select Blackberry models, you can bridge to the internet for full functionality. Some functionality requires a compatible Blackberry phone with data plan." or "If you have entered the PIN for one of your BBM contacts, and they are also a subscriber to BBM, you can listen to up to 50 of the songs in their catalog, excluding those songs available in their home country but not yours."). Catchy.

A guy on a bicycle out gang tagging or whatever he's doing in the middle of the night. Marketing aimed at the young hipsters, while sales and features are aimed at middle-aged IT directors. The marketing dollars are being spent, but in a very chaotic and ineffective way.

The billboards plug http://www.blackberry.com/bold/

I like the purple one. I think the two co-CEOs got "Defy Expectations" tattoo's prior to the last earnings call!

[anthogag]

Originally Posted by Palmless

Photos from two days ago in Times Square. Entire building was covered for about five minutes every fifteen minutes, twenty-four hours per day, the entire week I was there. Several stories high, full color full motion video. Not cheap.

In addition to the non-stop print and television ads.

The difference is that Apple ads show the product in use, which causes folks to want the product. That won't work for RIM (can you imagine explaining BB bridge in a 30 second TV spot? "If you have our Playbook, and you have these select Blackberry models, you can bridge to the internet for full functionality. Some functionality requires a compatible Blackberry phone with data plan." or "If you have entered the PIN for one of your BBM contacts, and they are also a subscriber to BBM, you can listen to up to 50 of the songs in their catalog, excluding those songs available in their home country but not yours."). Catchy.

A guy on a bicycle out gang tagging or whatever he's doing in the middle of the night. Marketing aimed at the young hipsters, while sales and features are aimed at middle-aged IT directors. The marketing dollars are being spent, but in a very chaotic and ineffective way.

The billboards plug BlackBerry Bold

I like the purple one. I think the two co-CEOs got "Defy Expectations" tattoo's prior to the last earnings call!

Hate to burst your purple bubble but BB recently started to take advertising more seriously and we need to give it some time.

I personally experience a lot of advertising from Apple, wether it's posters around every corner, commercials every 5 minutes, huge billboards in popular areas, etc..and add to this the huge number of android phone commercials from carriers...it's easy for the average consumer to think there's only two viable brands

[Palmless]

Originally Posted by anthogag

it's easy for the average consumer to think there's only two viable brands

The message you have entered is too short. Please lengthen your message to at least 10 characters.

[dandbj13]

Originally Posted by anthogag

Some of this comes down to marketing. Consumers are seeing a lot of iPhone/android advertising and nothing from BlackBerry.

A marketing campaign should show US customers that BB is another very good choice.

I will never understand this no matter how many times I hear it. Do we really believe marketing has anything to do with it at this point? Product A is wildly successful because of marketing, while product B is doing poorly for lack of marketing. If that was ever the case, why haven't the makers of product B done some marketing? Even without a creative bone in their proverbial bodies, they could have hired a firm. Heck, they could hire the firm that markets product A.

If it was a simple as more marketing, then the product B company should die for allowing such an oversight to just continue unabated for years. Also, is the whole industry of competitors failing to market? Is that why product A is so dominant, almost without competition? Everyone forgot to market their product? Really?

No! I don't think any part of it has to do with marketing at this point. Marketing is just the convenient whipping boy. It is the last thing we can blame before admitting that the product may be the problem. By the way, if product B's company starts to market a little more, product A's company can drown it out with even more and better marketing. What then. Give up on this idea. It's not the marketing.

[Palmless]

Originally Posted by dandbj13

It's not the marketing.

2009 (admittedly dated), Apple spent $501M. Less than half of Microsofts $1.4B.

That $501M would have been divided (admittedly unevenly) between iPhone, iPad, iPod, iTunes, Mac portables and desktops, and Apple TV.

Let's assume 1/2 was spent on the iPhone (a very high estimate). $250M spent marketing the iPhone. Probably less, as the phenomenal "Get a Mac" ads were the bulk of 2008-2009 television advertising.

RIM spent $337M that year. Assuming 100% was spent on Blackberry, RIM OUTSPENT APPLE BY 30%+ IN 2009 PHONE ADVERTISING and likely in later years.

Apple and Rim Spending

We may want to ignore this post and let the thread die, as it proves the mantra of "Apple just bludgeons folks with advertising, everybody would buy a Blackberry if they knew about it" hollow.

[dandbj13]

Originally Posted by Palmless

...everybody would buy a Blackberry if they knew about it" hollow.

I have heard this very thing about every product that has come and gone in the past year or so. While it is true that there are lots of products that people never hear about. That simply is not true of the big-name offerings. Heck! Moses used a BB to organize the Red Sea crossing. People know about RIM's products; they are just not excited by them these days. That is a very different problem.

[Houshinto]

Originally Posted by Palmless

Photos from two days ago in Times Square. Entire building was covered for about five minutes every fifteen minutes, twenty-four hours per day, the entire week I was there.

In addition to the non-stop print and television ads.

The difference is that Apple shows the product in use, which causes folks to want the product. That won't work for RIM (can you imagine explaining BB bridge in a 30 second TV spot? "OK, if you have our Playbook, and you have these select Blackberry models, you can bridge to the internet for some apps...").

A guy on a bicycle out gang tagging or whatever he's doing in the middle of the night. Marketing aimed at the young hipsters, while sales and features are aimed at middle-aged IT directors. The marketing dollars are being spent, but in a very chaotic and ineffective way.

There's more then one way to skin a cat.
At least RIM is noW starting to push.

[Palmless]

Originally Posted by Houshinto

There's more then one way to skin a cat.
At least RIM is noW starting to push.

Yep, results will show whether they are spending their huge ad budget wisely or ineffectively. But it's not difficult to evaluate at a glance.

[Doc Z]

Originally Posted by Palmless

Rebuttals to this and any similar article (with hat tips to original authors)

- RIM is very profitable.

- Apple came back from the dead once.

- Amateur hour is over.

- Blackberry is professional grade.

- This report is US-centric. Look at this from the viewpoint of Sub-Saharan Africa and you'll see a very different story.

- BB vii is perfect and needs nothing, who needs fart apps.

- X/10 will fix everything and run tons of apps.

This is a terribly warped perception of what's really going on and exactly the kind of thinking that got RIM in trouble in the first place. RIM is not VERY profitable, their profits are declining every quarter and it will only be a matter of time before they stop making profit if they don't change their pace. Don't compare RIM to Apple, the 2 bonehead CEOs got nothing on the visionary that was Steve Jobs. While the report is US-centric, it is wrong to disregard the US demographic as it is such a huge chunk of RIM's overall market share. Yes, they're popular overseas but that popularity will fall flat as soon as the rest of the world catches up with Android/Apple, just like it happened in the US. BB7 is far from perfect and categorizing all apps as "fart apps" is seriously silly. The consumers have spoken in a big way, they WANT apps because it makes their life easier. The mere statement "available for Android and iOS" without any mention to the Blackberry version of the app automatically discounts BB as irrelevant to many consumers. It's all about perception.

And there's a huge question if BB10 will "fix everything" or run tons of apps. Sounds like RIM can't even fix BB10 itself, let alone fix everything. And we'll see if developers hop on that platform.

[the_sleuth]

U.S. consumers are fickle. What was popular five years ago is not today. What is popular five years from now, no one is certain.

How long can Apple ride it's way of popularity? Maybe 5 years at most. Even Microsoft with it's billions in the bank could not continue riding the wave of innovation. These are corporations after all. All they truly care about is your dollars for the profit till. The more successful a firm becomes, the more arrogant and the more bureaucracy replacing innovation. It has happened to Kodak, Xerox, HP, Cisco, Nokia and Microsoft. The Apple / Jobs mystic will wane. So I give Apple about 5 years to ride it's current crest of popularity a little further.

In hindsight, RIM rode the wave of email always at your side. Instant communication. It has struggled to find a second act. After owinng a PB now for a few weeks, the new OS looks very promising. Time will tell if the market will allow RIM to play out its strategy next year before someone tries to buy them.

Originally Posted by dandbj13

I have heard this very thing about every product that has come and gone in the past year or so. While it is true that there are lots of products that people never hear about. That simply is not true of the big-name offerings. Heck! Moses used a BB to organize the Red Sea crossing. People know about RIM's products; they are just not excited by them these days. That is a very different problem.