All Things D -Survey. How do we reconcile conflicting statements?
Does anyone have any idea why there are common reports of sell-outs of Z10, an inability of carriers to even tell when units will be shipped and reports of strong sales, yet "surveys" like this suggest a more lukewarm reception to the BB10?
Survey Questions Stamina of BlackBerry Z10 in Canada, U.K. - John Paczkowski - Mobile - AllThingsD
I don't get it. Do you?
- 02-15-13, 03:16 PM #3
John Paczkowski has tended to be VERY negative on BB in the past couple of years. I won't say he's out-and-out lied about anything, but he's certainly gone out of his way to find negatives from time to time.
We have a survey from one Deutche Bank analyst that seems to conflict with that Phones 4U claim of 55% stores sold out. It looks a little like cherry-picked data. I don't know why an analyst would do this, and I know for a fact that Canada has seen more-than-spotty sell-outs. At best, the survey is an outlier, at worst it looks engineered to discredit the notion of a BB comeback.
- 02-15-13, 03:29 PM #4
Put it this way BB boy. IF large quantities of z10 really were sold....if BB was truly overwhelmed and backlogged with demand, do you think you might here concrete numbers from them?? Do you think, if they gave those numbers, it would generate great press, and excitement in the tech industry and fans? If BB came forward and said " we have sold 5 million z10 already. We are overwhelmed and thrilled. We are so sorry...even we did not anticipate a sell-through rate this high....we have ramped up our production to unbelievable levels, and we are going to get z10's out to our customers as soon as possible!
He's not saying that. SO either they did, and he just thinks it's cute to be coy....or they didn't. You must decide for yourself which is more plausible. Of course, it is always possible they did, and we won't know for sure, until some real numbers are released and verified. Heins say they have the numbers, if they are truly big/impressive, then Heins must be shorting stock ;-)
I think there are many reasons why numbers will not be given out. The main one is how they will be interpreted. If it were not for the fact that I have had conversations with people on the sales desk in store an on the telephone at Rogers and they tell me the sales are outstanding, then I might think that BBRY is playing games. Call my naive, but I don't see that these people have any vested interest in feeding me a line of BS. Furthermore, I don't see any home town bias for BB that would suggest my experience is skewed. Over the past year the number of iPhones has increased, even though I am in Guelph, down the road from Waterloo.
Agree that sales may not be as wildly high as some people are suggesting, but do we not think there is something positive happening?
- CrackBerry Abuser
02-15-13, 03:59 PM #6
- 361 Posts
What do you consider a lukewarm launch though? You seem to be benchmarking the Z10's launch to Apple's launches. Of course they aren't going to sell 5 million Z10s already or anywhere close to it. They're also not going to give numbers since it will inevitably be compared negatively to Apple's launch, which was for many more countries and just has higher demand period. If BlackBerry can do 1/5th the numbers that Apple does with the iPhone 5, they're in really good shape.
Aside from that, we do know that the Z10 has been the best launch that BlackBerry has had in Canada and the UK. No raw numbers, but it has to be seen as a positive if early sales of the Z10 are better than any previous BlackBerry product.
As well, one common theme of the analysts is that previously bearish analysts manage to find bearish store checks, while bullish ones manage to find bullish store checks. That's why I thought that Ferragu's report was interesting in that he was previously pretty bearish, but had a positive store check report. I put somewhat more stock into that than a report that matches the analyst's previously held views.
- 02-15-13, 04:03 PM #7
The demand for a Z10 is so good that people over the UK are buying unlocked phones and making profit with internet sales. I know because I just got a very good friend of mine to send me one and she heard it from directly from the store manager.
So yeah. In your face AThingsD, and BGR, and all others...
This cracked me up though:
- CrackBerry Genius
02-15-13, 04:06 PM #8
- 2,291 Posts
if people with investments want to knwo the actual numbers then they shoudl wait like everyone else to hear the numbers on the sales of Z10s for when they are presented, until then liek the rest just play the shorting game or ride the waves and enjoy the ride
There are games being played by Bears, it would appear, and probably games being played by the Bulls. A lot of agendas here. Big money at stake for a lot of people. Reputations as well. BBRY has been called the walking dead by many for a long time and it will be embarassing for some when the results are known. I have to say that I am feeling very optimistic about the launch and think BBRY is on their way to being not just a little relevant, but significantly relevant, globally.
02-15-13, 06:28 PM #12
- 2,621 Posts
I think these people are also possibly short sellers or have clients that have short sold the stock and wanna push it down.
- CrackBerry User
02-15-13, 06:49 PM #13
- 40 Posts
Nobody except Blackberry knows the true level of sales. However, we can use the limited data that we know to predict future sales. Think about all the data points and anecdotal evidence that suggests that the Z10 is a success: statements made by Thorsten Heins, Rogers, Phones 4u, number of positive reviews at Telus and Rogers, Ebay prices, all the other various news articles and analyst reports that suggest that retailers are out of stock. Now think about the data points and anecdotal evidence that do not suggest that the Z10 is a success. It should be clear that the current data overwhelmingly supports the conclusion that the Z10 is selling well.
- 02-15-13, 07:13 PM #14
What does the typical new phone get in at launch per store? What did the typical BlackBerry get in? Is the Z10 higher or lower on average?
It feels like people are trying to claim success or failure without having the big picture.
Which basically equates to....a lukewarm launch.
Agree with your point on the enthusiasts and all. I know in my small sample when I've talked to stores, the response I've received is that it has been selling briskly and better than other BlackBerrys and many other smartphones. Every time I go in a store, someone is looking at one and buying one. That's a positive sign. I think some people are proclaiming failure if it doesn't sell five million units in a global launch over a weekend like the iPhone. It's not going to.
Put it this way BB boy. IF large quantities of z10 really were sold....if BB was truly overwhelmed and backlogged with demand, do you think you might here concrete numbers from them??
And in truth, Apple doesn't sustain those sales either. :-) If it did, you'd be hearing about how Apple sold 150 million iPhones in a single quarter. Has never happened. ;-)
Reality is, we won't really know how well this thing is doing until June, when it has been available in most places for a full quarter. I think this quarter is actually going to cause the stock to tank because Z10 is only factoring into a fraction of the quarter. That will be the test, as will the longterm sustainability.
- CrackBerry User
02-15-13, 07:17 PM #16
- 40 Posts
Another conflicting statement: People claim initial stock levels were low. Thorsten Heins and Rogers say that it's the best launch in the company's history. How can the Z10 be the best launch if initial stock levels were low? The logical conclusion is that initial stock levels were not low and that the stock outs are caused by high demand, not limited supply.
- 02-15-13, 08:03 PM #17
Point is until we have actual numbers from BB its all speculation. All of the above can be true but we just dont know
- 02-15-13, 08:52 PM #18
We're all blowing in the wind until the hard numbers come out. What I can say about small inventories per store in Canada is that we are swamped with cell phone retailers. You can't go a block in a commercial district without running across a store or two. Heck, there are kiosks and displays in many grocery, drug and corner stores.
Case in point: I have been checking online inventory of one retailer and was getting the impression that stocks ran from a low of 1 or 2 Z10s per store in rural areas to maybe 7 or 8 in malls. As an FYI, this stock was per colour and per carrier so the chain I looked at had 2 carriers and 2 colours per carrier for a total stock ranging from 4 to 32 in all.
A better comparison was to see what the stock of a competing product might be. I looked at other brands and models and ended up with numbers looking awfully similar to the stocks of the Z10. Canadian retailers have so many competing models and carriers to stock that the supposedly low stock levels appear to be the norm. It does not look like there was any short shipping or lower than normal inventory. Of course, stores like Rogers and Bell who only sell plans for one carrier will have higher stock levels per store, Unfortunately, the don't put their inventories online, so I could not make comparisons involving them.
In the end, I am fairly confident that Mr. Heins was not overstating the initial success of the Z10. In my opinion, if he did overstate the success and the coming quarter's sales figures prove otherwise, he will have no credibility and BB will quickly become irrelevant. I don't think this is a game Mr. Heins or BB wishes to play. Boosterism is good and creating enthusiasm is the role of a good CEO. It is not a legitimate role of a CEO to misinform the pubic or shareholders. I think the public has long ago tired of being misled and will quickly turn on those who are less than truthful to them.
Last edited by Enyigma; 02-15-13 at 09:06 PM.
- 02-15-13, 09:16 PM #20
I'm in the camp that would think sales are strong and will be better than what BB was initially expecting. I would guess they produced sufficient inventory to meet sales that would result in a profitable return on investment and perhaps a modest to fair uptick in market share. I am certainly not expecting blowout numbers or a huge bite out of Apple or Android sales. This result might disappoint BB enthusiasts but to me would say that BB is on the right track and can forge ahead with new products and new ideas to build on that market share.
- 02-15-13, 09:27 PM #21
- 02-15-13, 09:36 PM #22
I don't think you are correct that they will not be interpreted correctly. They may or may not, but I think most people will do their best to. We all understand what countries we are talking about. If you think they are better off with the code of silence...well so be it. I certainly do not IF the numbers are truly great.
- 02-15-13, 09:39 PM #23
- 02-15-13, 09:56 PM #25
You know full well that if Blackberry sold 500,000 BlackBerry 10 devices in the first week in Canada and the UK combined and that number was twice the previous record, the New York Times wouldn't run a story that says, "BlackBerry doubles previous sales with strong BlackBerry 10 launch!"
They'd run a big headline that says, "BlackBerry 10 bombing - one 1/10th a many sold as iPhone 5s in first week" and forget to mention the increase over previous sales. Same with Eric Savitz and many of the other 'let's trash BlackBerry at every opportunity" reporters.
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