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  1. CrackedBarry's Avatar
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #1  

    Default Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    I was browsing in a cell store the other day, and was checking out some of the WP7 phones. I was impressed. Pretty nice hardware and a smooth and elegant OS experience. Nice...

    Which led to the obvious question: How come they haven't done any better in the market, and would I buy one.

    If I've never had another phone before, sure. A WP7 or WP8 phone would be on my short list. But now,nth at I'm significantly invested in the Android and iOS ecosystem? Meh, probably nope.

    And that's how most other buyers feel, I reckon. They either already have an investment in another ecosystem (whether just a gmail account or an iPod) and most importantly: Android and iOS are just plain good enough. There isn't really that much difference between the top tier mobile systems, that one of them is dramatically worse or better than the others. It often just comes down to little idiosyncrasies, whether one prefers widgets or iOS UI, that makes people choose one of the two.

    Enter BB10. Is it significantly different from other mobile OSes? Nope... Is it better? Sure it MIGHT be in some ways. Just not dramatically so. And that's RIMs biggest problem. They're launching a mobile OS that don't really offer any dramatic improvement over the competition.

    Android and iOS did that. Offered something dramatically better than the competition. And they've split the market between them, since its taken Microsoft, Nokia and RIM over 3-4 years to match their advantage.

    Don't get me wrong, there'll be buyers for BB10. Some, maybe even most of the current BB owners and a handful of converts. But by and large Android and iOS are GOOD ENOUGH, so the uptake we'll see of BB10 wont be more than a lukewarm reception, and it wont be enough to even secure third place for BB10.
    (Mostly because there WON'T BE a third place. There are only two competitors in the PC space, for example)

    So what now? Well, RIM could try and carve a niche in the corporate market, and try to make a living out of the corporations and government entities that still use Blackberries. It'll be a game of very diminishing returns though, and will probably mean that RIM won't exist as an independent entity or manufacturer in ten years.

    I think RIM is smart enough to know this.

    But there is a different option. Android.
    RIM could try and compete in the Android market, and through their own software and secure solutions (Produce a secure, FIPS certified, unroot able Android phone, for example) differentiate themselves enough to command a premium on their phones. Some of the pieces are already there. In the form of RIMs new enterprise mobile management software for example.

    A RIM competing in the Android space would be a very different one than the current RIM. They would have to be slimmer, smaller and more nimble. They would still have inhouse programmers developing their own solutions, but not as many as they have right now, developing an entire OS.

    But somewhere, deep in RIMs secret R&D vaults, Ill bet you that there is a couple of prototypes of a Blackberry Android phone, don't ya think?
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  2. hurds's Avatar
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    #2  

    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    LOL, carve a niche? They already own it. Misinformation!

    BB10s gonna take a big chunk out of the top two in NA and will cotinue to dominate in other markets like it already is with BB7. Its got legs and this things a marathon.

    Apples going to fail cause they stopped innovating keep pumping out the same product in different sizes. People are gonna wake up sooner or later, lots already are. Android is pretty much already a dead end platform, whos making money off it other than samsung. How are they even doing in revenue just from smartphone sales? We don't even know if google makes any money off android. Its going to be MS and RIM in the future while the others will be forced to make some drastic changes. Might already be starting at apple but it may be too late. We've seen how fast leaders can stumble, but with no more visionary tough times are ahead.
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  3. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Somebody make this guy CEO, quick.
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  4. daveycrocket's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    at the end of the day most smart phones offer similar things, I think that security issues are stronger with BlackBerry and certainly personal control for me is essential which as far as I'm aware isn't that easy on other platforms WP7 in particular as it is only basically cloud connected.
    Without getting into the cloud debate I and many other business/personal users need to control data.
    Europe has data protection issues around not allowing data to leave our shores without express permission cloud storage etc may not be able to achieve that as to where the servers are. So in essesnce WP7 can only work in Europe legally if the server is in europe etc etc. In psychology people don't like to give over control of their affairs so whilst WP7 is nice and modern BlackBerry will always top it in my view from this aspect.
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  5. Alex_Hong's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrackedBarry View Post
    Enter WP8. Is it significantly different from other mobile OSes? Nope... Is it better? Sure it MIGHT be in some ways. Just not dramatically so. And that's Nokia's biggest problem. They're launching a mobile OS that don't really offer any dramatic improvement over the competition.

    Android and iOS did that. Offered something dramatically better than the competition. And they've split the market between them, since its taken Microsoft, Nokia and RIM over 3-4 years to match their advantage.

    Don't get me wrong, there'll be buyers for WP8. Some, maybe even most of the current WP owners and a handful of converts. But by and large Android and iOS are GOOD ENOUGH, so the uptake we'll see of WP8 wont be more than a lukewarm reception, and it wont be enough to even secure third place for WP8.
    (Mostly because there WON'T BE a third place. There are only two competitors in the PC space, for example)
    See what I did? lol.

    Jokes aside, there are plenty of valid points.

    IMO, i don't think Android is the way to go. I don't think there will only be 2 major player. The mobile market is significantly bigger than the PC market in my opinion. And, the smartphone market is fast growing. Not everyone needs a PC. In a family of 5, 3 PC might suffice, or less. But all 5 needs a phone. Also there is still a large number of people still on feature phones, if RIM and MS could attract these new smartphone buyers, they can be profitable being the 3rd or 4th player. But the biggest obstacle is obviously apps. People want the same apps their friends have, but not necessary the same phone. So as long as WP8 and BB10 can establish themselves, and attract developers on board, they both have a chance.
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  6. CrackedBarry's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Well, I don't really think that WP8 has much of a chance either, so yeah, I see what you did there, lol, emphasize my point.

    I think the PC market is an example of what the mobile space might look like. And how many different platforms was there room for there? 2, though in reality only one, since the Mac market share was so tiny.

    So I don't necessarily think we'll be looking at a third or fourth place in the future in mobile computing. There's a very good chance that there will only be two platforms, and that the market has settled on the two players we will see in that market.

    For the people who disagree with my premise, please explain the following.

    1. WP7 got great reviews overall from the press and pundits. It did have some very attractive hardware, it was backed by a big ecosystem, and perhaps most importantly: The people who DID get a WP7 phone were all positive towards it and liked it. So WHY did it fail as miserably as it did? The only good reason that I can see, is that my premise is correct. Android and iOS are both good enough, and have become the defacto standard OS in mobile.

    2. Why the hostility towards an Android based Blackberry? BBOS as you know it is more or less dead, and its replacement: BB10 is going to be as different from BB7 as Android is.
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  7. daveycrocket's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrackedBarry View Post
    Well, I don't really think that WP8 has much of a chance either, so yeah, I see what you did there, lol, emphasize my point.

    I think the PC market is an example of what the mobile space might look like. And how many different platforms was there room for there? 2, though in reality only one, since the Mac market share was so tiny.

    So I don't necessarily think we'll be looking at a third or fourth place in the future in mobile computing. There's a very good chance that there will only be two platforms, and that the market has settled on the two players we will see in that market.

    For the people who disagree with my premise, please explain the following.

    1. WP7 got great reviews overall from the press and pundits. It did have some very attractive hardware, it was backed by a big ecosystem, and perhaps most importantly: The people who DID get a WP7 phone were all positive towards it and liked it. So WHY did it fail as miserably as it did? The only good reason that I can see, is that my premise is correct. Android and iOS are both good enough, and have become the defacto standard OS in mobile.

    2. Why the hostility towards an Android based Blackberry? BBOS as you know it is more or less dead, and its replacement: BB10 is going to be as different from BB7 as Android is.
    No platform is as secure as BB wether it be OS7 or BB10, with the invasive ability of some electronic devices we need more security not less. In my view just because BB7 is different from BB10 it doesnt validate Andriod in any way particularly around secure issues.
    I'm not sure that folk are hostile toward any platform really but BB does stand up as as secure Andriod being an open platform doesnt really.
    By the way I agree with point 1
    Sorry about useing the WP7 instead of WP8 the phrase sticks because I used to frequent that forum whilst WP7 was in development
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    #8  

    Default Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by belfastdispatcher View Post
    Somebody make this guy CEO, quick.
    i second that.
    no. make it 10,000.
    he's like the future of everything mobile os.

    make him a CEO.

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  9. gorang's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    RIM should take Android so that they can be succesful like HTC and LG.
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    #10  

    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    OP, what would you consider a "failure"?... Are you talking the company closing down? Are you talking #4 in market share? Define a "failure"? The iPhone could have been considered a failure for the first two years of its life, so I'm curious how you define it.
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  11. CrackedBarry's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by daveycrocket View Post
    at the end of the day most smart phones offer similar things, I think that security issues are stronger with BlackBerry and certainly personal control for me is essential which as far as I'm aware isn't that easy on other platforms WP7 in particular as it is only basically cloud connected.
    Without getting into the cloud debate I and many other business/personal users need to control data.
    When the Pentagon (or was it NSA? If anyone is interested I could try and dig up the story...) wanted to make a super-secure phone, they took Android, modified it slightly and ended up with something way more secure than even iOS or Blackberries.

    There is NOTHING inherently insecure in Android, as the FIPS certification some Android devices have achieved can attest to.

    So would you be interested if RIM made a locked down, Android-based device designed with security and data protection in mind?
  12. richardat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by hurds View Post
    LOL, carve a niche? They already own it. Misinformation!
    .
    Actually you just verified what he was saying. They "own" it (a questionable premise considering the erosion occurring but let's pretend it's a de facto truth), BUT I think most would say they still have some share in other areas of the market as well. Thus, they are not yet a niche player. If they end up relying entirely, or nearly entirely on it, then, as CrackedBerry said, they will have carved out a niche in that area. So unless you believe this is ALL they "own" right now, then it is you who are in error.
  13. richardat's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alex_Hong View Post
    See what I did? lol.

    Jokes aside, there are plenty of valid points.

    IMO, i don't think Android is the way to go. I don't think there will only be 2 major player. The mobile market is significantly bigger than the PC market in my opinion. And, the smartphone market is fast growing. Not everyone needs a PC. In a family of 5, 3 PC might suffice, or less. But all 5 needs a phone. Also there is still a large number of people still on feature phones, if RIM and MS could attract these new smartphone buyers, they can be profitable being the 3rd or 4th player. But the biggest obstacle is obviously apps. People want the same apps their friends have, but not necessary the same phone. So as long as WP8 and BB10 can establish themselves, and attract developers on board, they both have a chance.
    I'm not so sure about the 3rd or 4th player. It's possible, but it's tough to say. The very nature of tech, the ultra-fast evolution, the extreme product-development cycles, the thin margins, and the need for a customer base to fuel app development (in the long term), make it a tough game to play in, when you have a very small market share, and a completely independent product. Even if BB10 gains enough traction to keep going, RIM will still need to compete every day against the juggernauts. Not an easy task with less resources. I think it can be done, but it's very difficult position.

    Crackbarry, i do agree with you about the challenges bb10 faces....and I've written similar posts. I am skeptical about whether they can get back substantial share with what we've seen so far.....and that's assuming it's on-time, and flawless. Nevertheless, I'm not sure Android is the way to go, and even if they did - successfully - as you point out the company would be much different than it is today. Much, much different....so different, i'd still say it's the end of RIM as we know it. Entire departments and endeavors would be no-more. The company would fundamentally, in almost every way, be diffferent.
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  14. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by CrackedBarry View Post
    When the Pentagon (or was it NSA? If anyone is interested I could try and dig up the story...) wanted to make a super-secure phone, they took Android, modified it slightly and ended up with something way more secure than even iOS or Blackberries.

    There is NOTHING inherently insecure in Android, as the FIPS certification some Android devices have achieved can attest to.

    So would you be interested if RIM made a locked down, Android-based device designed with security and data protection in mind?
    There is only one phone more secure then a BlackBerry, the Sectera, and it does not run Android.
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  15. CrackedBarry's Avatar
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #15  

    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by belfastdispatcher View Post
    There is only one phone more secure then a BlackBerry, the Sectera, and it does not run Android.
    Well, that's your opinion. And sorry BD, but if there is one thing I trust less than your ability to gauge what constitutes a good photograph, it's your opinion on mobile security.

    Actually, considering what happened the last time we discussed mobile security* I think I'll just ignore your contributions to the subject.


    *anytime I brought up an expert who contradicted you, that expert didn't know what he was asking about. Despite just winning a security competition and bing very well respected in his field.
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  16. CrackedBarry's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by xandermac View Post
    OP, what would you consider a "failure"?... Are you talking the company closing down? Are you talking #4 in market share? Define a "failure"? The iPhone could have been considered a failure for the first two years of its life, so I'm curious how you define it.
    So far RIM has been losing marketshare steadily. And #4 in the market could be fine if its a fourth place with 15 or 20% of the market. But Fourth place obviously isn't as great if its only 5% of the total market.

    But we need something that can stop the bleeding and the destructive circle that RIM is in at the moment, so I'd consider BB10 a failure unless we'll see serious growth in marketshare. Anything less than BB10 growing faster than the overall market would constitute failure IMHO.

    As it is, the platform is teetering on the brink of irrelevancy. Once you're below ten percent marketshare, that's when developing for the platform doesn't any longer make sense for a lot of developers.
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    Default Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    I probably have invested a few hundred bucks on movies, a few hundred on music and apps and over $1000 in my iPhone 4S (all in the last year). I will likely sell this device and go to BB10 when it is released. Does that mean I can never access that stuff again? Nope. Just will use Apple TV and my iPad for that stuff.

    I want more security and an easier, better way to handle information reliably.
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    Default Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    The smart phone market is a toss up at this point in time but if I were to gauge if bb10 will put a dent in the market then I say yes!

    Verizon has already signed on to bb10 devices and this alone is big! Also Android and Apple are starting to loose their appeal to many and a fresh platform like bb10 will probably take off!

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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrackedBarry View Post
    1. WP7 got great reviews overall from the press and pundits. It did have some very attractive hardware, it was backed by a big ecosystem, and perhaps most importantly: The people who DID get a WP7 phone were all positive towards it and liked it. So WHY did it fail as miserably as it did? The only good reason that I can see, is that my premise is correct. Android and iOS are both good enough, and have become the defacto standard OS in mobile.
    Actually, while Wp7 got some great reviews, its problems became apparent soon after. The hardware was NOT very impressive (save for beautiful designs from Nokia, the cameras were sub-par, the chipsets were ancient, Single core CPUs and GPUs. No SD card support, no USB drive ability, no MTP, 800 x 480 screen resolution etc). It wasn't backed by a 'huge' ecosystem. it was not lucrative to develop for, difficult to port pre-existing apps across. Despite having very high user satisfaction ratings, the carriers didn't like it very much.

    Wp8 has basically fixed all these issues. There are early reports of strong demand in Europe. At the low pricing on AT&T of $99 (along with a free wireless charging pad) and backed by a significant marketing push from MS, I expect sales to do much better this time around. Add to that the fact that the UI looks pretty much like that on the Windows 8 laptops that will be sold by the millions on Black Friday and you'll find a recipe for modest success for Wp8.

    As for BB10, i predict a modest success too. People who think it will snatch significant marketshare from iOS and Android are clueless. it will sell Ok in North America and sell like wildfire in Asia and Africa.
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  20. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by CrackedBarry View Post
    Well, that's your opinion. And sorry BD, but if there is one thing I trust less than your ability to gauge what constitutes a good photograph, it's your opinion on mobile security.

    Actually, considering what happened the last time we discussed mobile security* I think I'll just ignore your contributions to the subject.


    *anytime I brought up an expert who contradicted you, that expert didn't know what he was asking about. Despite just winning a security competition and bing very well respected in his field.
    Please point me in the direction of a smartphone more secure then a BlackBerry that I can go buy.

    You don't need an expert to know this, it's a well known fact.
  21. xandermac's Avatar
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    Default Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Seeing as someone quoted BD.

    NO ONE CARES ABOUT SECURITY!

    The market numbers have proven that security is not a selling point for the majority of buyers. They just don't care. Security will not help RIM gain market share. Sorry, it is what it is. It just doesn't matter except to a handful of people. Apps and Eco-system matter, if RIM can nail that they're in with a chance. Without that they'll be a minor player.


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  22. daveycrocket's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrackedBarry View Post
    Well, that's your opinion. And sorry BD, but if there is one thing I trust less than your ability to gauge what constitutes a good photograph, it's your opinion on mobile security.

    Actually, considering what happened the last time we discussed mobile security* I think I'll just ignore your contributions to the subject.


    *anytime I brought up an expert who contradicted you, that expert didn't know what he was asking about. Despite just winning a security competition and bing very well respected in his field.
    A difference of opinion is one thing, personal attacks are another, do those of us who wish to enjoy our forum really want to be exposed to this, my opinion is no.
    The problem is it may invalidate what may be an important point of view, sorry.
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  23. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by xandermac View Post
    Seeing as someone quoted BD.

    NO ONE CARES ABOUT SECURITY!

    The market numbers have proven that security is not a selling point for the majority of buyers. They just don't care. Security will not help RIM gain market share. Sorry, it is what it is. It just doesn't matter except to a handful of people. Apps and Eco-system matter, if RIM can nail that they're in with a chance. Without that they'll be a minor player.


    Sent from my 4s using TapaTalk
    No one? 80 million feel different.

    Are you sure you can back that up? I know plenty people that value their security and privacy. Maybe you mean the majority doesn't care and I'm not part of that.
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  24. pmccartney's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by xandermac View Post
    Seeing as someone quoted BD.

    NO ONE CARES ABOUT SECURITY!

    The market numbers have proven that security is not a selling point for the majority of buyers. They just don't care. Security will not help RIM gain market share. Sorry, it is what it is. It just doesn't matter except to a handful of people. Apps and Eco-system matter, if RIM can nail that they're in with a chance. Without that they'll be a minor player.


    Sent from my 4s using TapaTalk
    Agreed - today most people don't concern themselves very much with 'personal' phone security but things evolve...especially in Tech.
    I suspect that people will care a great deal more once they can start using their smart/super phones to make major purchases (ie built in credit card). I don't know much about this stuff but I see where it's headed and I for one want my device to be very secure.
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  25. xandermac's Avatar
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    Default Re: Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

    Quote Originally Posted by pmccartney View Post
    I suspect that people will care a great deal more once they can start using their smart/super phones to make major purchases (ie built in credit card)
    This I agree with entirely, people will then start to care but that's also when all the major manufacturers (and 3rd parties involved) start to pay attention and try to make sure their customers are secure, not just RIM. To assume that 80 million people bought a blackberry because of its security is Naive, its discounts those that are issued a BB, those in emerging markets that bought it because it was the cheapest option and those that want it merely for BBM. If security was the deciding factor RIMs market share wouldn't have slipped as badly as it has. Yes, there are a percentage of users that stick to the BB because of its security but I doubt many of them are your average consumer and I would wager it was a fairly low percentage. Thankfully they have that option.
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  5. Will this work? And, what are the costs?
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    Replies: 3
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