Why BB10 Will likely fail, and what RIM can do.

you think it will fail because its not new/different enough and the analyst thinks it will fail because its too new/different...

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Originally Posted by xandermac

Seeing as someone quoted BD.

ONE CARES ABOUT SECURITY!

The market numbers have proven that security is not a selling point for the majority of buyers. They just don't care. Security will not help RIM gain market share. Sorry, it is what it is. It just doesn't matter except to a handful of people. Apps and Eco-system matter, if RIM can nail that they're in with a chance. Without that they'll be a minor player.


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Fixed it for ya. :D
Since BD does care, there's one who cares.

Jokes aside, i agree to a huge extent, but not completely. :D

I do think that people do somewhat value security, but its definitely not on the majority of people's priority when getting a smartphone. The majority are willing to just compromise security for other things, like a better ecosystem, a bigger screen, faster processor, faster web browser, better camera, etc. So in other words, they kinda don't care. lol.

If i were to guess, most people would only be concern with basic security. The ability to track their phone remotely, the ability to lock one's device to prevent information theft when they lose their phone, basic things like that. I mean most things we do online are already being tracked. People are giving those information themselves via twitter, facebook, etc. They are even sharing their location, so i mean what the heck.

Originally Posted by Alex_Hong

Fixed it for ya. :D
Since BD does care, there's one who cares.

Jokes aside, i agree to a huge extent, but not completely. :D

I do think that people do somewhat value security, but its definitely not on the majority of people's priority when getting a smartphone. The majority are willing to just compromise security for other things, like a better ecosystem, a bigger screen, faster processor, faster web browser, better camera, etc. So in other words, they kinda don't care. lol.

If i were to guess, most people would only be concern with basic security. The ability to track their phone remotely, the ability to lock one's device to prevent information theft when they lose their phone, basic things like that. I mean most things we do online are already being tracked. People are giving those information themselves via twitter, facebook, etc. They are even sharing their location, so i mean what the heck.

Ever had a friend that has had his email twitter or facebook hacked and you got inundated with spam, phishing or porn?

Yeah, people that don't care about security are irresponsible because it's not only them affected, everybody they know will too.

Originally Posted by Alex_Hong

Fixed it for ya. :D
Since BD does care, there's one who cares.

Jokes aside, i agree to a huge extent, but not completely. :D

I do think that people do somewhat value security, but its definitely not on the majority of people's priority when getting a smartphone. The majority are willing to just compromise security for other things, like a better ecosystem, a bigger screen, faster processor, faster web browser, better camera, etc. So in other words, they kinda don't care. lol.

If i were to guess, most people would only be concern with basic security. The ability to track their phone remotely, the ability to lock one's device to prevent information theft when they lose their phone, basic things like that. I mean most things we do online are already being tracked. People are giving those information themselves via twitter, facebook, etc. They are even sharing their location, so i mean what the heck.

I agree wholeheartedly. I think BlackBerry 10 will be a success but I don't think security will have anything to do with it. It'll come down to applications and ecosystem. Security will be an added benefit.

Buying decision for the majority comes down to "what can I do with the phone", "What apps are available". I occasionally use a BlackBerry simply because it's a fast communicator not because it's secure.


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Originally Posted by belfastdispatcher

Ever had a friend that has had his email twitter or facebook hacked and you got inundated with spam, phishing or porn?

Yeah, people that don't care about security are irresponsible because it's not only them affected, everybody they know will too.

5 years ago with hotmail, yes. I haven't gotten any from gmail. Twitter, just recently there was 1. Funny enough, It was from a twitter account of a RIM employee. None from my friends. Facebook, well game requests are annoying enough, lol.

But a lot of these doesn't really matter even if you're on a BlackBerry. For example the twitter spam, it works by someone sending you a DM and you click on the link. It will happen even if you're on a BlackBerry.

Sad to say, a lot of my friends are not particularly tech savvy. I mean a lot of my friends despite having gmail, still store contacts on their phone only, with no backup any where else. Not even a local backup on their desktop. :cant-watch: So a lot of times, they are pretty clueless to such things, and security is one of their least concern. And i really don't blame them.

Well, irresponsible is a strong word imo. Its just personal emails. If it were a corporate email, i can understand the need to prevent these. If my friend got some girl pregnant and left her alone to fend for herself, i would call him irresponsible. But if his email/twitter/facebook account was hacked, i would call him careless, at the most annoying.

Originally Posted by CrackedBarry

When the Pentagon (or was it NSA? If anyone is interested I could try and dig up the story...) wanted to make a super-secure phone, they took Android, modified it slightly and ended up with something way more secure than even iOS or Blackberries.

There is NOTHING inherently insecure in Android, as the FIPS certification some Android devices have achieved can attest to.

So would you be interested if RIM made a locked down, Android-based device designed with security and data protection in mind?

First, it was the army. And they were creating and testing a unit for field use. Very custom, requiring a bunch of additional OS programming. One or maybe a few test units. Nothing has been said since about it.

Second, the phones that gained FIPS certification had to have had Android redesigned with that in mind. Plain vanilla Android wouldn't pass. And, if you think that certification is all that's looked at, why are there so few Android phones in use in secure locations? And why, when there's a choice, have government agencies opted for iOS? Android still has other holes that need to be fixed.

Third, why would anyone in their right mind, at RIM or any other phonemaker now, want to go from being a standalone to becoming just another Android producer. There are hundreds of Android phone makers on the market, with multiple versions of Android, varying levels of quality and complexity. Nokia knew enough not to try Android, although WP doesn't seem to be helping, either. HTC had a huge reputation as a phonemaker with WM. When MS killed WM, HTC jumped on the Android bandwagon. And they've pretty much been losing money since.

Android is not a cure all.

This idea that everyone that owns an iphone or android phone is heavily invested in the ecosystem is a myth. Of course there are people who have bought lots of apps and would be unwilling to move because of this (and I imagine this is more likely to be iphone users than android because of the nature of their respective app stores). However, there are lots of people that buy an iphone because it's a nice looking, easy to use phone, download a few free apps that help them with their day but don't buy any (both my parents are cases of this), and there are people that buy android phones because it's cheap, can more than a feature phone etc. but again don't invest in the ecosystem. These people have no handset loyalty. They see adverts, listen to what the people in the shop tell them and buy based on that. BB10 can certainly convert some of these people.

Rim is giving away stuff all the time. Just this monday Rim is offering $40 free of charge of apps. Playbook gets free games many times as well.

I think everyone makes a huge mistake when comparing BB10 to Windows 8 and that is in that WP never had the huge market share or customer base that BlackBerry had. People know and liked BlackBerry. I really believe that nobody wanted to leave BlackBerry, they had to so they could get their apps. When people see that they can have the apps they love back on a BlackBerry it is going to be bring some of them back. Windows phone never had that customer base to begin with so every customer that they gain is a completely new one and that makes it a harder sell.

Originally Posted by xandermac

Seeing as someone quoted BD.

NO ONE CARES ABOUT SECURITY!

The market numbers have proven that security is not a selling point for the majority of buyers. They just don't care. Security will not help RIM gain market share. Sorry, it is what it is. It just doesn't matter except to a handful of people. Apps and Eco-system matter, if RIM can nail that they're in with a chance. Without that they'll be a minor player.


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It's not that NO ONE cares about security, it's just that security is good enough, by and large, in all the major platforms. And for those who want Blackberry style-security and prefer to avoid Blackberries, there are solutions to that to.

And BTW, it's been a while since Blackberry was the only, or just the most secure system on the market. iOS is more secure now than Blackberries are in some respects. They are much less vulnerable to browser based attacks, for example.

Originally Posted by daveycrocket

A difference of opinion is one thing, personal attacks are another, do those of us who wish to enjoy our forum really want to be exposed to this, my opinion is no.
The problem is it may invalidate what may be an important point of view, sorry.

How is that a personal attack?!? I just told him I'll ignore him, because based on past experience in another thread, its my distinct impression that he doesn't really care what you post, but just repeats his own claims ad nauseam and ignores anything that might be to the contrary.

Yeah, I could have just written "Lolz! Whtever Ure on my ignore!" But didn't because I feel it's rude to write something like that without an explanation Would that also have been a personal attack?

Just like personal attacks don't contribute to anything on a forum, trivially throwing out accusations of such don't add anything either.

Now back on topic, shall we?

if they go with android they will surely fail. this thread is so uninformed and such bad information.

android is incredibly cut throat, that's why only samsung is suceeding and all others are eating the scraps. it's a hardware, low cost game they are playing.

read this post I wrote up about the life cycle of smart phone industry

http://forums.crackberry.com/general...-cycle-751959/

Originally Posted by CrackedBarry

I was browsing in a cell store the other day, and was checking out some of the WP7 phones. I was impressed. Pretty nice hardware and a smooth and elegant OS experience. Nice...

Which led to the obvious question: How come they haven't done any better in the market, and would I buy one.

If I've never had another phone before, sure. A WP7 or WP8 phone would be on my short list. But now,nth at I'm significantly invested in the Android and iOS ecosystem? Meh, probably nope.

And that's how most other buyers feel, I reckon. They either already have an investment in another ecosystem (whether just a gmail account or an iPod) and most importantly: Android and iOS are just plain good enough. There isn't really that much difference between the top tier mobile systems, that one of them is dramatically worse or better than the others. It often just comes down to little idiosyncrasies, whether one prefers widgets or iOS UI, that makes people choose one of the two.

Enter BB10. Is it significantly different from other mobile OSes? Nope... Is it better? Sure it MIGHT be in some ways. Just not dramatically so. And that's RIMs biggest problem. They're launching a mobile OS that don't really offer any dramatic improvement over the competition.

Android and iOS did that. Offered something dramatically better than the competition. And they've split the market between them, since its taken Microsoft, Nokia and RIM over 3-4 years to match their advantage.

Don't get me wrong, there'll be buyers for BB10. Some, maybe even most of the current BB owners and a handful of converts. But by and large Android and iOS are GOOD ENOUGH, so the uptake we'll see of BB10 wont be more than a lukewarm reception, and it wont be enough to even secure third place for BB10.
(Mostly because there WON'T BE a third place. There are only two competitors in the PC space, for example)

So what now? Well, RIM could try and carve a niche in the corporate market, and try to make a living out of the corporations and government entities that still use Blackberries. It'll be a game of very diminishing returns though, and will probably mean that RIM won't exist as an independent entity or manufacturer in ten years.

I think RIM is smart enough to know this.

But there is a different option. Android.
RIM could try and compete in the Android market, and through their own software and secure solutions (Produce a secure, FIPS certified, unroot able Android phone, for example) differentiate themselves enough to command a premium on their phones. Some of the pieces are already there. In the form of RIMs new enterprise mobile management software for example.

A RIM competing in the Android space would be a very different one than the current RIM. They would have to be slimmer, smaller and more nimble. They would still have inhouse programmers developing their own solutions, but not as many as they have right now, developing an entire OS.

But somewhere, deep in RIMs secret R&D vaults, Ill bet you that there is a couple of prototypes of a Blackberry Android phone, don't ya think?

have u used BB10, do u have the final OS that no one else does? do you have the final hardware? if u do then u need to hook people up! Also even if u have the dev alpha all the features are not there..

also Thorsten already talked about using Android.. he actually looked at it and comment on why he didn't go with it...

so ur argument is void! and WP7?? kidding me? i tried it for the first time when i did that WP7 challenge .. when they challenge u to do stuff on your smart phone and see who gets it done the fastest..

i won with my S3.. and i got $100 Visa Gift Card.. and then i played with it.. and it was just ok.. and i like BB10 much better.. maybe WP8 would be better to play with.. but still BB10 is very different the way you do things and how u launch things and how well things are integrated!

and we don';t need another android.. like sh!t we have enough already... and besides samsung.. HTC, LG and the likes are not doing so well... and the security that BB's have won't stand a chance on android..

Originally Posted by belfastdispatcher

No one? 80 million feel different.

Are you sure you can back that up? I know plenty people that value their security and privacy. Maybe you mean the majority doesn't care and I'm not part of that.

+

I'm sure most of those 80 million subscribers don't care either. The phone was the cheapest or the only one offered that was more than a dumbphone by their carrier.

Originally Posted by ESN

The smart phone market is a toss up at this point in time but if I were to gauge if bb10 will put a dent in the market then I say yes!

Verizon has already signed on to bb10 devices and this alone is big! Also Android and Apple are starting to loose their appeal to many and a fresh platform like bb10 will probably take off!

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I agree with all but your last sentence. Android hasn't lost marketshare. But far too many manufacturers, with varying quality, has forced to top end to push out phones and new features far quicker than they should to keep a chunk of the Android audience. Apple has, basically, stuck with one phone and one OS, with incremental upgrades to both. Apple had more bugs the last few versions. And what's happening at Apple? The head of iOS development is soon to be gone. With Apple's decreasing sales, don't be surprised if they go for something big again.

As for BB10 taking off, I agree it could. There are similarities to Metro, but more pleasing to the eye. Blackberry has two things in its favor: it's different enough from other UIs to catch interest. And it has the elegance that the gesture system gives it -- something lacking in other phones. Plus, if the customer has a Blackberry tablet, there's bridging between phone and tablet. But we know how well RIM has marketed in the recent past. We'll have to see how they do with BB10 before we can say it'll be widely accepted or not.

I am sorry for RIM, I hope it works out for them. The deal breaker for me was simply the lack of features in Adobe Reader on the Playbook. That's it.

I work with very large PDF files and I need to be able to search, bookmark and other essentials, instead RIM emphasized games. They this is a business tablet but I could not use it for business.

I was a loyal bb user, I purchased 2 playbooks for my kids. They liked it but had to switch to iPads. Good luck RIM, it's the small things that matters not gaming.

I finally couldn't wait any longer. Ive been monitoring RIMs attempt at launching the much needed and wanted 10. with delay after delay and crushing BB news this way and that, I went and got the Galaxy S3. I refuse to be an I ZOMBIE. The S3 is absolutely fantastic in every way. Im not going to restate stats etc. but Im the farthest thing from a techie and this phone blows me away. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that RIM gets there sh*t together but Im not going to hold my breath. You can only stay on a sinking ship for so long before you start to get wet.

Originally Posted by belfastdispatcher

Ever had a friend that has had his email twitter or facebook hacked and you got inundated with spam, phishing or porn?

Yeah, people that don't care about security are irresponsible because it's not only them affected, everybody they know will too.

I have been on the receiving end and I've had one of my email accounts hacked. But most people haven't experienced either. Phones have only recently started getting much attention from hackers, so that will change with time. But, at least for now, it only takes an app or two, tweaking some settings, and common sense (even slight) for most people to stay out of trouble, no matter what phone they have. So, it's not a priority. I didn't buy my first BB for security, I bought it for the physical keyboard.

Sigh. Another thread about how RIM should run Android? These kind of comments are a dime a dozen, as if Android is some magical OS that leads to easy riches. It's not happening. Get over it. I don't know why people would be advocating less choice in the marketplace, not more.

where do u get these people... I had a windows phone for 1 week, I could NOT even change a ringtone. A SIMPLE feature missing, showing that its was rushed and not simply not finished. u need to read why I think will will be a success fyi I did not even read ur entire thread because the post is completely wrong...http://forums.crackberry.com/general...1/#post7718580

how come they did no good???.. BECAUSE WINDOWS NEVER OWNED THE MARKET,,, everyone hated the windows platform, Everyone LOVED RIM. I worked for carriers during those times, Windows was never a hit so why would u expect a come back when u were never back in the 1st place lol. RIM has somthing to b won back windows did not, apple is boring, its going to be RIM vs SAMSUNG

OP you are genius! Why didn't RIM think of that! Bravo and when does your CEO position start?




Oh sorry you're just another forum member with a bad idea. Carry on.

I love the idea that teenaged girls and others at the bottom of the markets are buying Blackberries because of "security".

From my own experience, once you get my 13 year old niece talking about FIPS you just can't stop her.
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Originally Posted by CrackedBarry

So far RIM has been losing marketshare steadily. And #4 in the market could be fine if its a fourth place with 15 or 20% of the market. But Fourth place obviously isn't as great if its only 5% of the total market.

But we need something that can stop the bleeding and the destructive circle that RIM is in at the moment, so I'd consider BB10 a failure unless we'll see serious growth in marketshare. Anything less than BB10 growing faster than the overall market would constitute failure IMHO.

As it is, the platform is teetering on the brink of irrelevancy. Once you're below ten percent marketshare, that's when developing for the platform doesn't any longer make sense for a lot of developers.

Marketshare in the states not the world. There is so much more to the rest of the world than USA. Only the US media amd retailers seem to be oblivious to what RIM have been doing. And when bb10 takes off it will be the US behind and back pedalling to see the potential.

Originally Posted by cgk

I love the idea that teenaged girls and others at the bottom of the markets are buying Blackberries because of "security".

From my own experience, once you get my 13 year old niece talking about FIPS you just can't stop her.
Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express

but when a teenager calls rogers to say "hey i downloaded this app and now my phone is MESSED UP" there are so many apps that cause malware and adware..

u don't know how many times people asked me what the STAR means in the notification bar means and why it happens.. (yes there are ways to get rid of it) but not a lot of people know how..

i've had people download email clients that log in and send spam messages to all their contacts... stuff like that isn';t fun!