[Bbnivende]

Rockyivy wrote a very interesting post below in another thread. He could be right and I could be way wrong but regardless I find these discussions to be educational because we can learn from each other. At this point there are no right or wrong answers.


Originally Posted by rockivy View Post
OK simple math for the analysts

22000 AT&T stores nationwide
5% sold out of their initial shipment
Let's assume that all stores received the low number of 12 phones

So for the sellout stores we have
22000 X 0.05 = 1100
Multiply X 12 = 13200 sold

That leaves 95 % of the stores left that sold between zero and not quite all of the stock received.

Let's break that down to a rough estimate of

25% sold 9
25% sold 6
25% sold 3
And 20% sold none

So now we have 5500 stores selling 9, 6 and 3 units respectively
5500x9 = 49500
5500x6 = 33000
5500x3 = 16500

So adding all the units moved in the first few days of the phone going on sale at AT&T we have 13200+49500+33000+16500=112200 units sold of the first shipments to AT&T.

Not too bad for the first few days of sales from a carrier that gave little effort to advertise, market and train the staff as well as not giving the phone the real estate to be seen by the casual shopper.

Then we need to add in T-Mobile and Verizon debuts and we have a conservative number 250000 units sold in the first few days of release at each carrier. It's going to be interesting to see the numbers from the US for the next quarter.

It doesn't take too much to see that each carrier could sell 1 million phone each per month especially once the Z and Q are selling side by side that's 3 million a month, translate that to a year and factor in a slow down after initial pent up demand and you can then see 25 to 30 million units being sold in a fiscal year in the US, lets slash that in half and say 12 to 15, which is close to the world wide 18 million units crystal balled by the analysts, and that is only from the US market.

I don't think I'm being pie in the sky In saying these numbers are achievable and should by chance the overall negative sentiment towards BlackBerry in the US markets shift a little to give them a boost they could well exceed these numbers

From BBnivende:

The USA market is different than Canada and the UK where BB use has not fallen off as drastically. According to Comscore only 5.4% of the USA smartphone population are BB devices ( 7.2 mill ). TH said that 50 % of Z10 buyers came from outside the platform.


Because the USA is unique let us say that 70% of BB10 buyers will not be current BB7 owners. Let's say that of the current 7.2 million owners let's say that 3 million leave BB7 this year ( maybe high) and of the 3 million leaving 2 million opt for BB10 ( maybe high). Given that 2 million BB7 to BB10 = 30% of BB10 sales then the total sales of BB10 in the USA would be 6.7 million units.

Most likely the figure above is on the high side. Indications are that smartphone sales in the USA will be about 50 to 54 million units. If BB10 gets 10% of new sales that would be excellent versus 90% for Android.

Look at the market in terms of brand - the average of the also ran three (HTC, Motorola & LG) = 8%. If BB joins the three then it would have a 8% share of the USA market up from 5.4 % (and dropping) . By my calculations that would mean 6.5 million BB10 sales in the next year.

The critical issue going forward is whether BB10 growth in the USA ( or potential for) is enough for developers to produce Apps. I think yes because WP8 is not prospering. I don't see there is enough leftover market that is not Android or iOS to support apps for both BB and WP8. The town is just not big enough to have four prospering platforms in the USA - at this time. BB10 needs to grow quickly. BB should be offering trade in incentives to convince BB7 owners to convert so as to max out BB10 growth in year one.

The wild card here is the Q10 - to demolish my assumptions business users need to come back to BB is droves. I can't see it happening because USA big business users have already replaced their BB's and now we have BYOD. Possibly but BB would really need a great marketing campaign aimed at IT managers.

Last edited by Bbnivende; Today at 12:08 PM.

[jrohland]

Based on no analysis at all, I think BB will sell about 6.5 million units in the USA in calendar 2013. Yes I think that is not a good performance at all. Since I live in the states, I can tell you it is an actively hostile market for BlackBerry.

[Bbnivende]

Based on no analysis at all, I think BB will sell about 6.5 million units in the USA in calendar 2013. Yes I think that is not a good performance at all. Since I live in the states, I can tell you it is an actively hostile market for BlackBerry.

If they sold 6.5 million units they would be a solid third place OS. A good finish for 2014 FP is to be in the top five manufacturers for the USA market displacing LG.

comScore Reports February 2013 U.S. Smartphone Subscriber Market Share - comScore, Inc