What is BBM worth ? Chris at CB can you respond

08-07-13 12:55 PM

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Chicago777Guy

Can Chris or some one please answer this?

As per below article on CNBC, Snapchat which sends 200 M messages per day is worth 800 M...If BBM sends 10 Billion messages per day then what is it worth?????

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100911089

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07-25-13 09:34 AM

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ianbordas

Priceless!

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07-25-13 09:40 AM

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LoganSix

Originally Posted by Chicago777Guy

Can Chris or some one please answer this?

As per below article on CNBC, Snapchat which sends 200 M messages per day is worth 800 M...If BBM sends 10 Billion messages per day then what is it worth?????
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This is what I read.

IVP recently led a round of $60 million in Series B financing that valued Snapchat at $800 million pre-money. The company hasn't begun to make money yet, but investors see real strength in its numbers.

And then from Snapchat's site.

Is Snapchat free?

Snapchat uses the data plan that you purchase with your smartphone (or WiFi, when available). If your data usage exceeds what is allotted by your plan, you could be subject to additional fees by your carrier.

Sounds like another hyped up company that is being valued at some value way beyond what it is worth. How it got $60 million in financing for something not designed to make money, is beyond me. Even the app itself is free.

07-25-13 09:43 AM

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Chicago777Guy

Originally Posted by LoganSix

This is what I read.

And then from Snapchat's site.

Sounds like another hyped up company that is being valued at some value way beyond what it is worth. How it got $60 million in financing for something not designed to make money, is beyond me. Even the app itself is free.

Skype was bought for 8.5 billion dollars...it is still free.....and probally one of the best acquisition Microsoft did...

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07-25-13 09:59 AM

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LoganSix

Originally Posted by Chicago777Guy

Skype was bought for 8.5 billion dollars...it is still free.....and probally one of the best acquisition Microsoft did...

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Skype isn't 100% free. There is at least some method of revenue.
And it isn't like Microsoft hasn't kept something around at a loss in order to get customers and kill the competition.

Microsoft's best deal was to get IBM to put MS DOS on their computers. It helped that IBM was too stupid to see the future of consumer PCs.

Last edited by LoganSix; 07-25-13 at 11:51 AM.

07-25-13 10:43 AM

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CrackBerry Kevin

CrackBerry Founder

I'll flag this to Umi to do some analysis on.

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07-25-13 11:27 AM

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Chris Umiastowski

Awesome topic. I'll do something on this today (most likely). I have some thoughts on the value of the network (Metcalfe's law, compare to Facebook, etc)

Just keep in mind my comparisons won't be based on today's behavior. BBM is not monetized today. And it won't be perfect. It'll just be some thoughts I come up with.

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07-25-13 11:32 AM

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garnok

whatsapp and Line , wechat have more than 200 million users and keep increasing. revenue come from one time payment or advertising or selling emoticon

When microsoft buy skype at that time they have more than 500 million user base and keep increasing.

BBM right now only have 70 million user base , revenue right now only come from people who subscribe BIS .(who keep declining)

So for now i dont think BBM worth much money, we can only see BBM worth until they are going cross platform and BBM channel have decent user base

07-25-13 11:51 AM

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Chicago777Guy

Originally Posted by Chris Umiastowski

Awesome topic. I'll do something on this today (most likely). I have some thoughts on the value of the network (Metcalfe's law, compare to Facebook, etc)

Just keep in mind my comparisons won't be based on today's behavior. BBM is not monetized today. And it won't be perfect. It'll just be some thoughts I come up with.

Thanks Chris and Kevin

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07-25-13 11:59 AM

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mrfreetruth

I think at this point in time the market is giving bbm a market value of zero. This is good in the sense that BlackBerry /bbm has a lot of added value potential. Bbm is second to none Imo and a lot of ex BlackBerry users as well as other non BlackBerry users can't wait to finally have bbm.

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07-25-13 12:15 PM

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mrfreetruth

Originally Posted by Chicago777Guy

Can Chris or some one please answer this?

As per below article on CNBC, Snapchat which sends 200 M messages per day is worth 800 M...If BBM sends 10 Billion messages per day then what is it worth?????

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100911089

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That's a good question.

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07-25-13 04:23 PM

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global14u

Originally Posted by Chicago777Guy

Skype was bought for 8.5 billion dollars...it is still free.....and probally one of the best acquisition Microsoft did...

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Hotmail for 400 million was probably better. Bought them time to figure out what.the customers wanted. And gave them traffic outside North America. But we digress, back to BlackBerry.

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07-25-13 05:15 PM

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H_O_Boomaye

This might sound stupid to some, but if you look at it objectively BBM has something that I look at as an advantage. Besides having a a solid user base, and a huge # of ppl who used to use it BBM has its name.

I'm not just talking about the recognition from the name, I'm referring to how it sounds. "BBM" really just sounds great.

There are tons of apps that do the same things, at comparible levels. I've noticed the ones that sound the coolest tend to succeed and be the most popular. IE Instagram, Snapchat, Candycrush, Blaq, UberSocial.

Capitalize on a proven app. BBM I'm pretty sure will take back off, I predict a jump from 70M- 100M users after 6Mos of being cross platform, especially if they can capitalize on security and desktop ft.

PS, they should never refer to it as BlackBerry Messenger. Never, just BBM.

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07-25-13 07:34 PM

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billsterjito

Originally Posted by Chris Umiastowski

Awesome topic. I'll do something on this today (most likely). I have some thoughts on the value of the network (Metcalfe's law, compare to Facebook, etc)

Just keep in mind my comparisons won't be based on today's behavior. BBM is not monetized today. And it won't be perfect. It'll just be some thoughts I come up with.

Looking forward to this^^

BB10, Z10

07-25-13 07:45 PM

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notfanboy

I read Whatsapp is up to 27 billion messages per day.

07-25-13 09:13 PM

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CrackBerry Kevin

CrackBerry Founder

And here's Umi's article on this topic: What's the value of BBM?

Chicago777Guy and imz like this.

07-26-13 04:28 PM

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Chicago777Guy

Thanks !!! Let's hope BlackBerry delivers a flawless execution on this

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07-26-13 05:24 PM

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cgk

I like Chris's stuff but those ARPU numbers are pie in the sky - look at what the market leader is making per user and come back and tell me they make sense...

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 2

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07-26-13 05:30 PM

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Chicago777Guy

Originally Posted by cgk

I like Chris's stuff but those ARPU numbers are pie in the sky - look at what the market leader is making per user and come back and tell me they make sense...

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 2

Yes I think his numbers are assuming if they can grow 4 times after they go cross platform which by no means is an easy task considering whatsapp and skype has enormous hold...So it's doable if you think every BBM user gets 4 more users but not easy by any means...He does provide lot of data which one can use to come up with thier analysis and be lot more conservative.

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07-26-13 05:39 PM

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notfanboy

I think the assumption of $50 per user is overboard. unlike Instagram, Facebook, and Waze, the new users that they will get will also be users of other IM platforms. They would at the same time be users of Whatsapp, Skype, iMessage, etc. Therefore the value would be diluted. Another factor in the valuation is the geography and spending power of these users. A disproportionate number would be in places like Nigeria and Indonesia where they would be of less interest to those who would seek to monetize BBM.

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07-26-13 05:43 PM

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Chicago777Guy

Originally Posted by notfanboy

I think the assumption of $50 per user is overboard. unlike Instagram, Facebook, and Waze, the new users that they will get will also be users of other IM platforms. They would at the same time be users of Whatsapp, Skype, iMessage, etc. Therefore the value would be diluted. Another factor in the valuation is the geography and spending power of these users. A disproportionate number would be in places like Nigeria and Indonesia where they would be of less interest to those who would seek to monetize BBM.

I aggree with you...that's why one should discount all those and estimate one third of the value to be ultra safe which brings us to a valuation range of 1b to 3b...3 if they are successful...But that's still damn good compared to market cap of the stock

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07-26-13 05:49 PM

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m1a1mg

Has anyone seen the beta for iOS or Android?

07-27-13 07:34 AM

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Ali Gayyas

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08-04-13 08:25 AM

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Ali Gayyas

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08-04-13 09:01 AM

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Ali Gayyas

Originally Posted by Chicago777Guy

Can Chris or some one please answer this?

As per below article on CNBC, Snapchat which sends 200 M messages per day is worth 800 M...If BBM sends 10 Billion messages per day then what is it worth?????

Why Snapchat is worth $800 million

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08-06-13 10:37 AM

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