[cgk]

By realistic, I mean if you think BB10 is still an active living OS which BBRY is super-keen on, you might want to give this thread a pass because it treats it as the undead



So realistically what are we going to see in the next year?

* Slider sells well - another android model mid or end of next year?
* Slider sells poorly -??????? (pulls the plug)
* Maybe and I think the chances of this are very very low - a rehash of a BB10 device mid next year using the same aging processors - but I think the chances of that are super-low.

What do you think will happen?

[early2bed]

I think John Chen needs to stay in the hardware business in order to monetize the patent portfolio without being a patent troll. I BlackBerry gets out of the hardware business then they will be a patent troll - a non-user of the patents it is trying to enforce. It probably helps if BlackBerry 10 is somewhere in the mix since there are probably methods that are BBOS/BB10 specific.

[Uzi]

I see more android device in the future by BlackBerry if slider does well
And I can see passport running Android will be release by BlackBerry if Android doing well

[gimmi786]

If slider is a hit I think this phone would be the second best Android phone after Samsung.

Posted via CB10

[kvndoom]

I hope they get it in stores soon and next quarter hardware sales pass 1 million units. At least we'd know BlackBerry was finally moving in the right direction.

Posted from BlackBerry Classic, T-Mobile, no camera, 10.3.2.2474

[cbvinh]

If the Slider sells well, I can see BlackBerry selling incrementally upgraded versions of it. I don't think they'll venture into making other form factors, except for perhaps the Passport form. Maybe there's room in there for a high-end full touch with a huge battery, but that still feels very niche, as there are always battery cases for those really needing it.

BB10 will still exist for secure markets, though with only existing handsets, kind of how the BBOS7 devices are still sold. It just seems like BB10 consumer users are at the market limit, no growth. Consumer users demand much more than secure markets that just need a secure communications device. That's a lot easier to service, like with BBOS7.

I can see BlackBerry exiting hardware completely if software becomes a huge majority of their revenue and I don't see any reason why they would be shy about licensing patents they have and may not be using.

[JeepBB]

BB10 has been a dead man walking for a while now. Chen made that official on Friday.

Android is the future for BB now, and if it doesn't play out profitably (the only definition of success that I believe matters to Chen)... BB will stop making phones.

I can see the Android Passport being released if the Priv is a success. I can't really see any future new models being produced. I'm sure Chen hasn't changed his mind, he wants BB to become a software company, and once software can stand on its own, he'll drop hardware entirely. If the Priv stops the bleeding, and gives him more time to complete that transition, he'll support it by releasing the Android Passport. If the Priv isn't a success, he'll cut his losses sooner, and get out of devices altogether.

So, I don't see a bright future for BB Android either.

I think it's just a means to an end for Chen, to buy breathing space while he continues the transition.

I'll just add that the posts I've seen positing that any cash earned from Android will be ploughed back into new BB10 devices are *beyond* delusional!

BB10 is done.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[cgk]

BB10 has been a dead man walking for a while now. Chen made that official on Friday.

Android is the future for BB now, and if it doesn't play out profitably (the only definition of success that I believe matters to Chen)... BB will stop making phones.

One of the issues of positioning BBRY's Android devices as "more secure than your other android devices" is that if it ships with Lollipop it will have less app permissions and control for users than M devices. Moreover with all the fuss about it using a more secure kernel - I'm sure that M is shifting to a new secure kernel as default anyway...

So I guess it then comes down to the BB app suite.

[Mithrandrost]

There is now a fork in the road. BlackBerry will have two operating systems: OS10 and Android.

It seems likely that the legacy OS will be used by an increasingly limited number of customers. In a sense, it will become BlackBerry's specialty, or "boutique" security focused OS.

On the other hand, BlackBerry will likely start to offer current models with its Android OS: Passport, Z30, Leap, Classic. The security that BlackBerry can offer around Android will be its main selling point and market differentiator.

Further out, based on sales numbers, BlackBerry will offer "tweaked" or updated models.

Posted via my Blackberry Classic

[cgk]

On the other hand, BlackBerry will likely start to offer current models with its Android OS: Passport, Z30, Leap, Classic.

Maybe the Passport but the others are so low/aging spec in the Android world that unless they are rock-bottom prices they will sit on shelves. The Leap in particular is pretty tired.

Thinking about it - what are realistic EOLs for current devices?

Leap - March 2015 (On market six months)
Z30 - Oct 2013 (On market two years)
Classic - Dec 2014 (Ten months)
Passport - Sept 2014 (one year)

So by march

Leap - March 2015 (twelve months)
Z30 - Oct 2013 (two years six months!!!)
Classic - Dec 2014 (just over One and half years)
Passport - Sept 2014 (one and a half years)

[Mithrandrost]

Good points about the specs. However, companies generally avoid trying to reinvent the wheel. If there is a working platform it will be put to use. In a way, the current phones are quasi-Android anyway. Going full on Android is not a huge stretch. BlackBerry has been making these moves incrementally.

With regards to specs, BlackBerry is jobbing out the manufacture of its phones to Foxconn. Like Apple ("Designed in California") BlackBerry can focus on design and software.

More to your point, would a future Android Z30 use the exact same specs? It would seem that by using Foxconn it becomes possible to rapidly tweak the specs in increments (especially if volumes are low).

I am a Classic user, so am very curious to know if a full Android version will be offered.

The BlackBerry name is still very associated with smartphones. There is a legacy there. If BlackBerry can position itself as the secure alternative to iPhone (and eat Samsung's lunch in the process) the future will look bright.

Posted via my Blackberry Classic

[cgk]

More to your point, would a future Android Z30 use the exact same specs? It would seem that by using Foxconn it becomes possible to rapidly tweak the specs in increments (especially if volumes are low).

its the processors that are the issue - people have suspected for a while and Chen pretty much confirmed that the cost of custom drivers for BB10 is one of the reasons he's keen on Android - as BB10 device sales continue to decline that cost would increase. So if we see another device, it's like to either have same processor as the passport for that reason.

[oilgeo10]

My prediction, the hardware road map stops at a dead end in 2016. End of BlackBerry hardware.

But now this new Android BB device needs to be ready for release for U.S. Thanksgiving, black Friday & cyber Monday. Why couldn't Chen give a release date yesterday?

Posted via CB10

[conite]

If Priv doesn't sell well, this is academic, as device unit will cease. But, assuming it does....

1) BlackBerry will focus its BlackBerry-branded devices on keyboard units - Slider and Passport styles going forward.

2) Slabs will be left to other vendors. BlackBerry will sell its BlackBerry Experience Suite and BlackBerry Safeguard security apps for use on those other devices.

3) In-market managed BB10 devices will get security updates, but will be slowly replaced by BlackBerry Android devices as security certifications are complete.

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.2639

[Aju]

If Priv doesn't sell well, this is academic, as device unit will cease. But, assuming it does....

1) BlackBerry will focus its BlackBerry-branded devices on keyboard units - Slider and Passport styles going forward.

2) Slabs will be left to other vendors. BlackBerry will sell its BlackBerry Experience Suite and BlackBerry Safeguard security apps for use on those other devices.

3) In-market managed BB10 devices will get security updates, but will be slowly replaced by BlackBerry Android devices as security certifications are complete.

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.2639

Sounds right!!

Q10SQN100-3/10.3.2.2639

[igor10000]

Android is the future for BB now, and if it doesn't play out profitably

That is a oxymoron right there.



Posted via CB10

[JeepBB]

That is a oxymoron right there.

You don't think an Android handset might bring more profit than a BB10 handset to BB? Or might actually sell more handsets/quarter than are being sold currently?

Because those are the questions to which Chen desperately wants an answer of "yes".

Yes, apparently Android isn't the cash-cow that many believe it to be, and I understand that only Samsung make good money from it. Though, I've always been curious to learn why so many vendors want to sell Android handsets if there's no money in it... but, I digress...

BB handset sales will reach zero within a year based on the historical sales "curve" (actually, it's a straight line which hits zero sales about 3.5 quarters from now). Android is a desperate gamble. It might not work, but there's a chance that it might. That "might" is better odds than the certainty of BB10 and BBOS handset sales continuing to nothing.

[cgk]

You don't think an Android handset might bring more profit than a BB10 handset to BB? Or might actually sell more handsets/quarter than are being sold currently?

Because those are the questions to which Chen desperately wants an answer of "yes".

Yes, apparently Android isn't the cash-cow that many believe it to be, and I understand that only Samsung make good money from it. Though, I've always been curious to learn why so many vendors want to sell Android handsets if there's no money in it... but, I digress...

BB handset sales will reach zero within a year based on the historical sales "curve" (actually, it's a straight line which hits zero sales about 3.5 quarters from now). Android is a desperate gamble. It might not work, but there's a chance that it might. That "might" is better odds than the certainty of BB10 and BBOS handset sales continuing to nothing.

Bear in mind that 800,000 is across ALL current BB10 handsets - so passing any of the individual devices isn't really a hard target - if they cannot sell more than say 400,000 of these...well...

[JeepBB]

if they cannot sell more than say 400,000 of these...well...

Indeed, and I agree.

As I've said previously, I doubt BB really want an Android future... it's just a way to (hopefully) arrest the plummeting sales, and bring in some revenue while they complete the transition to software. I'm of the opinion that it won't work, as the software side isn't growing as fast as it needs to in order to plug the gap left by the dying hardware side. That said... doing something (in this case Android) has to be better than shrugging and awaiting the bitter end. I doubt Chen would survive as CEO if sales went to zero without some evidence that he tried to recover the situation.

[cbvinh]

My prediction, the hardware road map stops at a dead end in 2016. End of BlackBerry hardware.

But now this new Android BB device needs to be ready for release for U.S. Thanksgiving, black Friday & cyber Monday. Why couldn't Chen give a release date yesterday?

Clue?: Maybe we're so close to an official announcement that they didn't put any effort in the place holder page?

[cbvinh]

Indeed, and I agree.

As I've said previously, I doubt BB really want an Android future... it's just a way to (hopefully) arrest the plummeting sales, and bring in some revenue while they complete the transition to software. I'm of the opinion that it won't work, as the software side isn't growing as fast as it needs to in order to plug the gap left by the dying hardware side. That said... doing something (in this case Android) has to be better than shrugging and awaiting the bitter end. I doubt Chen would survive as CEO if sales went to zero without some evidence that he tried to recover the situation.

In the interview, Chen was pretty candid about the BB10 situation and why he went Android.

[Bbnivende]

Blackberry should not be making square screen devices. The pure pkb devices should have a 4:3 screen. They also need a all touch version of the slider. It would out sell the slider .

[Bbnivende]

If Priv doesn't sell well, this is academic, as device unit will cease. But, assuming it does....

1) BlackBerry will focus its BlackBerry-branded devices on keyboard units - Slider and Passport styles going forward.

2) Slabs will be left to other vendors. BlackBerry will sell its BlackBerry Experience Suite and BlackBerry Safeguard security apps for use on those other devices.

3) In-market managed BB10 devices will get security updates, but will be slowly replaced by BlackBerry Android devices as security certifications are complete.

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.2639

If they can make a profit from a slider why would they not make a profit on an all touch. Same product but lighter and cheaper and with the same software. Very few consumers want a
Pkb. It would be like selling a car that only comes with an manual trans mission.

[medic22003]

If they can make a profit from a slider why would they not make a profit on an all touch. Same product but lighter and cheaper and with the same software. Very few consumers want a
Pkb. It would be like selling a car that only comes with an manual trans mission.

The manual transmission is lighter and cheaper lol

Posted via CB10

[conite]

If they can make a profit from a slider why would they not make a profit on an all touch. Same product but lighter and cheaper and with the same software. Very few consumers want a
Pkb. It would be like selling a car that only comes with an manual trans mission.

BlackBerry has no value-add with a slab. With nothing to bring to the table, why compete with all the others? That will just turn into a price/spec war BlackBerry can't win.

Hopefully the keyboard market will be of adequate size, sufficient to keep the device business alive.

The BlackBerry Experience Suite will still be available to the other slabs.

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.2639