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  1. cgk
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #1  

    Default The Quarterly BB10 sales game - round 2

    So in the last round, virtually all of us widely overestimated the sales of BB10 devices, some by as many as five million units. So your challenge (for bragging rights only) is to successfully guess how many BB10 devices will be sold this quarter - as people post guesses, I'll update this first post. I think this is going to be a tricky quarter to guess - we have a possible fire sale of devices, the introduction of the z30, carriers starting to turn their back on BBRY and a general public perception that the company is on it's last legs.


    • No figures released - Heymaggie, ElGusta
    • (0.10) million units - Cashgap
    • 0.18 million units - Troy Tiscareno
    • 0.20 million units - sentimentGX4
    • 0.25 million units - JeepBB
    • 0.30 million units - Greenberry66
    • 0.33 million units - PFman
    • 0.38 million units - mikeo007
    • 0.40 million units - mnc76
    • 0.50 million units - notfanboy
    • 0.50 million units - m1a1mg
    • 0.60 million units - CrackberryQ
    • 0.60 million units - Rello
    • 0.65 million units - JasW
    • 0.85 million units - RH1Pearl
    • 0.80 million units - ccan
    • 0.93 million units - Sesameopen
    • 0.95 million units - ErnestoBB
    • 0.98 million units - rohetaku
    • 1.00 million units - RubenDM
    • 1.05 million units - birdman_38
    • 1.10 million units - app_developer
    • 1.12 million units - newcollector
    • 1.20 million units - h20work
    • 1.23 million units - njblackberry
    • 1.30 million units - Bold_until_Hybrid_comes
    • 1.35 million units - bcbobcat22
    • 1.35 million units - Scalemaster34
    • 1.40 million units - amazinglygraceless
    • 1.40 million units - CGK
    • 1.50 million units - Thesmartmale
    • 1.65 million units - propeller10
    • 1.70 million units - MarsupilamiX
    • 1.75 million units - eldricho
    • 1.90 million units - crackedup77
    • 2.00 million units - The Aficionado
    • 2.00 million units - Aljean Thein
    • 2.00 million units - Superfly_FR
    • 2.10 million units - Web99
    • 2.40 million units - yunvi
    • 2.60 million units - David Murray1
    • 3.00 million units - _dimi_


    To keep this simple, I am rounding up to the nearest two digits.
    Last edited by cgk; 12-19-2013 at 02:53 PM.
    Thanked by:
    Superfly_FR (12-19-2013) 
  2. RubenDM's Avatar
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    #2  

    Default

    I think they will start to dive massivly...
    A lot of shops that stop stocking phones. (yes, most of the people that look for a phone want it in their pocket when they leave a shop). Ordering is a step to much. 1 million max (excludes the overstocked z10) if they use them to sell cheap, they can sell a lot of them, but with the history of overpricing i don't see it happen.
  3. rohetaku's Avatar
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    #3  

    Default

    977,000 units sold.

    Sent from my BlackBerry
  4. cgk
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #4  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by rohetaku View Post
    977,000 units sold.

    Sent from my BlackBerry
    I'm sticking to two digits if that's ok? I've recorded you as 0.97.
  5. rohetaku's Avatar
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    Default

    Yeah that's cool.

    It is however funny and very telling that you decided to round my unit estimate down! Hahaha

    Sent from my BlackBerry
  6. bcbobcat22's Avatar
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    #6  

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    1.35 million units

    Posted via CB10
  7. cgk
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by rohetaku View Post
    Yeah that's cool.

    It is however funny and very telling that you decided to round my unit estimate down! Hahaha

    Sent from my BlackBerry
    fair point I've rounded it up now
  8. kazza295's Avatar
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    #8  

    Default

    5000 bb10 phones
  9. cgk
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #9  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by kazza295 View Post
    5000 bb10 phones
    Are you missing a couple of zeros?
    MarsupilamiX likes this.
  10. heymaggie's Avatar
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    #10  

    Default

    I believe it will never be announced. If the company is in private hands then no further sales volume info will ever be released, especially if there is a fire sale.
  11. cgk
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    Thread AuthorThread Author   #11  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by heymaggie View Post
    I believe it will never be announced. If the company is in private hands then no further sales volume info will ever be released, especially if there is a fire sale.
    Right but who is to say a sale will even go through - might as well guess and see what happens.

    Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4
  12. JeepBB's Avatar
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    #12  

    Default

    I'll guess at 0.25M sold (not shipped) next quarter, though I take the point that we may never learn the numbers if the sale goes through.

    I think BB10 sales will stall completely.

    There are better, cheaper, alternatives to the Z30 on the market and BB continues to live down to my expectations by pricing the phone stupidly high and with near-invisible marketing. It won't sell in any significant numbers.

    Anyone who wanted a Q10, has probably already bought one. The Q5, with its stupidly high price for a claimed budget phone, was DOA.

    As for the Z10, it's destined for landfill. Unless BB start to sell it for $50 in a fire sale, few will buy it. And, unlike the Playbook fire sale, with its promised free upgrade to BB10 acting as incentive, there is no compelling reason to buy an EOL'D phone with a weak ecosystem from a company that may not be around to support the product much longer.
    Proud Member of the PlayBook Beta Test Team (Since June 2011)

  13. ElGusta's Avatar
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    #13  

    Default

    I vote no sales figures released due to privatization.
  14. app_Developer's Avatar
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    #14  

    Default

    I think 1.1 million. They can sell 300k Z30's, 300k Q10's, and a 500k of the discounted Z10's.
  15. Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes's Avatar
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    #15  

    Default

    1.3 million
  16. newcollector's Avatar
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    #16  

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    1.12 million phones.

    Posted via CB10 via my Z10
    Torch 9800, 9810, STL 100-3 Z10, 10.3.1.1151
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  17. crackedup77's Avatar
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    #17  

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    I'm in for 1.9m.

    Posted via CB10
  18. njblackberry's Avatar
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    #18  

    Default

    1.23mm BB10 units "sold" in the quarter.

    Are there prizes?
    A Z10 from the inventory pile to the winner?
    Second places gets two Z10s, etc.

  19. 12Danny123's Avatar
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    #19  

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    1.20 Million for me
    Nokia Lumia 1020 ----LG Nexus 5---- Apple iPhone 5C---- Blackberry Z10

    Playbook ---- Nexus 7 2012----- Microsoft Surface Pro 2

    All have their creativity on their OSes :-)
  20. Cashgap's Avatar
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    #20  

    Default

    .75M




    That would be .85M legacy, and a net negative .1M of OS10 devices (returns exceeding new shipments).
    @Cashgap
    NRA Instructor, TN Handgun Carry Instructor, Glock Armorer, Certified Merger & Acquisition Advisor, Certified Lease Professional, Bunburner 1500 Gold rider, C&R FFL, N8ZTE, MBA, MACC = One of a kind
  21. _dimi_'s Avatar
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    #21  

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    3 million units

    Posted via CB10
  22. Aljean Thein's Avatar
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    #22  

    Default

    Is there a prize if we guess correctly?

    Anyway, I'll say 2 mill

    With the carriers/retails reducing the price of the phones, they might sell better but who knows. BlackBerry is now selling directly so it might sell a few more..

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by Aljean Thein; 11-06-2013 at 04:28 AM.
  23. amazinglygraceless's Avatar
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    #23  

    Default

    1.4 million with the Z30 accounting for the least of the BB10 sales and the Z10 being the most (mark downs and all)
  24. sentimentGX4's Avatar
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    #24  

    Default

    Blackberry didn't even release the actual figures last quarter. It sneakily changed the revenue recognition. Who's to say they won't use some other dirty tactic next quarter?

    If we were using the old metric, though, the number shipped should be roughly the same as the number of z30s shipped. So for the shipped number, it is probably in the couple hundred thousands. Basically a rounding error.
  25. 12Danny123's Avatar
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    #25  

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    Quote Originally Posted by sentimentGX4 View Post
    Blackberry didn't even release the actual figures last quarter. It sneakily changed the revenue recognition. Who's to say they won't use some other dirty tactic next quarter?

    If we were using the old metric, though, the number shipped should be roughly the same as the number of z30s shipped. So for the shipped number, it is probably in the couple hundred thousands. Basically a rounding error.
    they did. They admitted that they sold 1.7 million BB10 devices out of the 5.4 million
    Nokia Lumia 1020 ----LG Nexus 5---- Apple iPhone 5C---- Blackberry Z10

    Playbook ---- Nexus 7 2012----- Microsoft Surface Pro 2

    All have their creativity on their OSes :-)
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