Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 26 to 47 of 47
Like Tree30Likes
  1. Easy-G's Avatar
    CrackBerry Abuser

    Posts
    373 Posts
    Global Posts
    390 Global Posts
    #26  

    Default

    BlackBerry's point of profitability is a difficult thing to predict. Everything is new and different. Z10 is out, but not in the U.S.. Q10 is not out, and there is sure to be a base of loyal hardware QWERTY holdouts that are waiting for it. We probably won't have a good idea of the consumer impact of BlackBerry 10 until BBRY reports on Q2 2013 sales - a full quarter for Z10 and Q10 in the North American market. MDM revenue is to be determined. BES 10 revenue (government and business sector) is to be determined.

    Before we know it, we'll have a new flagship all-touch and QWERTY to drool over. Bottom line is, BlackBerry is in it for the long haul.
    Dapper37 likes this.
  2. marlowe9810's Avatar
    CrackBerry User

    Posts
    69 Posts
    #27  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by katiepea View Post
    considering 20 million s3's were sold within the first 100 days, 9 million of those being preorders, with analysts saying bb10 will likely come in at 275k units low, 500k 1 million high estimates, someone is clearly full of **** here on the numbers. the link is to BGR talking about goldman keeping blackberry as a buy and raising the valuation. goldman is probably closest IMO to reality for these estimates. i would say they'll get 1 million unit sales before the US numbers come in. that being said, i think the US will be the worst sales numbers they'll see. that's just my guess. i agree with goldman i think there is reason to beleive a rebound is coming, but it will be long and slow. it's my way of thinking that the US delayed launch is a really bad thing. perhaps only temporarily but google trends is a decent tool to use to scale worldwide interest in products, the trends typically follow along the same lines as sales.

    as far as widespread interest in the z10, it seems to be waining if not entirely plummeting. especially in the US. Google Trends
    If you are referring to quotes I attributed to Sith, that "BB sold better than the S3 at launch", we dont know the time period and it is limited to the UK. That being said, I agree with you, I think the sales will be in the million range.
  3. katiepea's Avatar
    CrackBerry Genius

    Posts
    3,203 Posts
    Global Posts
    3,205 Global Posts
    #28  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Zarpan View Post
    I don't have UK specific S3 launch numbers, so I can't comment on whether Sith_Apprentice's claim is plausible. However, you're using an invalid comparison of global launch numbers for the S3 as a comparison with the Z10, which has been only been launched in a few countries.
    no i'm comparing one launch to another launch. if blackberry didn't get their product launched in the same manner as another company did that doesn't matter when the comment i made was disputing the other comment that the z10 was somehow outselling the s3, it's totally absurd. i don't need to take anything else into account, i was responding just to that comment.
  4. katiepea's Avatar
    CrackBerry Genius

    Posts
    3,203 Posts
    Global Posts
    3,205 Global Posts
    #29  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by marlowe9810 View Post
    If you are referring to quotes I attributed to Sith, that "BB sold better than the S3 at launch", we dont know the time period and it is limited to the UK. That being said, I agree with you, I think the sales will be in the million range.
    yeah 1 million seems to make sense when you add everything up together. that would be my prediction based on the info that we do have, and i generally don't disagree with goldmans predictions as they're usually pretty close.
  5. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    CrackBerry Genius of Geniuses

    Posts
    15,071 Posts
    #30  

    Default

    So where did the figures that production ramped up from 500k/month to 2mil/month we see in other threads come from? If true would that not make the low ball analysts predictions look somewhat self serving? Is this figure traceable? I find it odd no one hasn't simply predicted that number...I guess Goldman numbers are the closest to that though.

    Posted via CB10
    Be nice, it's free.
  6. katiepea's Avatar
    CrackBerry Genius

    Posts
    3,203 Posts
    Global Posts
    3,205 Global Posts
    #31  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Shanerredflag View Post
    So where did the figures that production ramped up from 500k/month to 2mil/month we see in other threads come from? If true would that not make the low ball analysts predictions look somewhat self serving? Is this figure traceable? I find it odd no one hasn't simply predicted that number...I guess Goldman numbers are the closest to that though.

    Posted via CB10
    I would find it hard to believe that blackberry would ramp up production yet. I'm trying to picture, even with my limited knowledge of the subject, risking overstocking even in high demand areas until the device has launched everywhere. It makes the most sense to work with the demand much more conservatively as it's not likely to disappear. I mean, that's typically the way things go. Google just proved this model pretty successful with the nexus 4. a product line that has sold rather horribly in the past, compared to now over 1 million units. that's also a $50 competitive phone though.
  7. marlowe9810's Avatar
    CrackBerry User

    Posts
    69 Posts
    #32  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Shanerredflag View Post
    So where did the figures that production ramped up from 500k/month to 2mil/month we see in other threads come from? If true would that not make the low ball analysts predictions look somewhat self serving? Is this figure traceable? I find it odd no one hasn't simply predicted that number...I guess Goldman numbers are the closest to that though.

    Posted via CB10
    I think that was Misek saying the BB had ramped up production. But number i remember was 500K per month to 1 million per month. That was pre launch.
  8. BBThemes's Avatar
    CrackBerry Genius of Geniuses

    Posts
    5,368 Posts
    #33  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by katiepea View Post
    no i'm comparing one launch to another launch. if blackberry didn't get their product launched in the same manner as another company did that doesn't matter when the comment i made was disputing the other comment that the z10 was somehow outselling the s3, it's totally absurd. i don't need to take anything else into account, i was responding just to that comment.
    its only as absurd as comparing a launch quote in one country with a launch figure that's global.

    if you had launch numbers for the S3 in the uk, then youd have a more realistic argument.

    Thorsten said ZED 10. deal with it
    My Apps in BlackBerry World
    My Platinum 9900


    For all my themes - BBThemes.co.uk and follow me on @BBThemes1
  9. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    CrackBerry Genius of Geniuses

    Posts
    15,071 Posts
    #34  

    Default

    Thanks...I am trying to find the thread which used those numbers...There have been so many its hard to remember them all lol...either way its fascinating to watch as this all unfolds.

    Posted via CB10
    Be nice, it's free.
  10. Desktoper's Avatar
    CrackBerry User

    Posts
    71 Posts
    #35  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by kenorian View Post
    After a brief period of optimism, it seems that financial analysts are once again predicting that BlackBerry (BBRY) is in very big trouble. Per Forbes, Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette has released a research note this week estimating that BlackBerry Z10 shipments will total 275,000 to...


    BlackBerry Z10 sales projections: lower than expected | BGR
    That guy should talk to this guy:

    Crunching The Numbers: BlackBerry Severely Undervalued

    Maybe they could arm-wrestle for our amusement.
    PlayBook 64 + Ubuntu 12.04
    RubberChicken76 likes this.
  11. Thunderbuck's Avatar

    Posts
    5,277 Posts
    Global Posts
    5,278 Global Posts
    PIN
    2B6927F7
    #36  

    Default

    The bears seem to be rushing in to take advantage of a technicality.

    Yes, the initial projections were that there'd be upwards of a million units sold in this quarter. That didn't take into account that sales in the US wouldn't be starting until after the fiscal period ends on March 2. So, yes, sales projections for the current quarter need to be revised downward.

    That does not reflect on the product or its desirability in any way. It's a matter of a delay of a couple of weeks into a major market. Not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things. Canaccord themselves remained positive on the Z10 even as they cut their projections. It would appear that Faucette is using this technical adjustment to rationalize his own bearishness.





    "Max Power doesn't 'cuddle'! You strap yourself in and feel the Gs!"
  12. naviwilliams's Avatar
    Distinguished

    Posts
    11,942 Posts
    Global Posts
    14,269 Global Posts
    PIN
    Pin Point Accuracy
    #37  

    Default

    No matter what the financial people think about BlackBerry, I'm still buying a BlackBerry Z10 & Q10 when it is released in the U.S. 😝
    Thanked by:
    Shanerredflag (02-21-2013) 
  13. katiepea's Avatar
    CrackBerry Genius

    Posts
    3,203 Posts
    Global Posts
    3,205 Global Posts
    #38  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by naviwilliams View Post
    No matter what the financial people think about BlackBerry, I'm still buying a BlackBerry Z10 & Q10 when it is released in the U.S. ��
    As am I, looking forward to it quite a bit actually
  14. BlackStormRising's Avatar
    CrackBerry Master

    Posts
    1,240 Posts
    PIN
    PIN it on Big Boy
    #39  

    Default

    My pessimism begins and ends with the fact that I've yet to see a single Z10 at work besides mine. In a company of several thousand. I saw plenty of 9800's when it launched.
  15. Emu the Foo's Avatar
    CrackBerry Master

    Posts
    1,234 Posts
    Global Posts
    1,235 Global Posts
    PIN
    330c56f6
    #40  

    Default

    "No line of sight to profitability".....-img_00000110.jpg

    Till the numbers get released
    Thanked by 2:
    Bbnivende (02-21-2013),  Thunderbuck (02-21-2013) 
  16. Zarpan's Avatar
    CrackBerry Abuser

    Posts
    361 Posts
    #41  

    Default

    The quote it looks like you were responding to was "In UK BB10 launch selling more than galaxy s3 did at its launch.". Since it is referring to the UK only, you can't use a global launch number to refute it very well. The S3 will definitely sell more than the Z10 in their first 100 days after launch. Whether the Z10 outsold the S3 in the UK over their first 21 days is a separate question.

    Quote Originally Posted by katiepea View Post
    no i'm comparing one launch to another launch. if blackberry didn't get their product launched in the same manner as another company did that doesn't matter when the comment i made was disputing the other comment that the z10 was somehow outselling the s3, it's totally absurd. i don't need to take anything else into account, i was responding just to that comment.
  17. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    CrackBerry Abuser

    Posts
    385 Posts
    #42  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by electrical988b View Post
    In the first week of the Z10 launch, here in BC, I noticed a lot of ppl were posting to trade their iPhones/Samsung Galaxy phones with the Z10. But just yesterday and today, I checked Craigslist&Kijiji and I saw literally the exact opposites... A lot of Canadians want to trade their Z10 for iPhone 5/Galaxy Note 2...

    Prices have fallen also... In the first week, no one would sell the Z10 lower than $700. But now everyone is trying to sell it for no more than $550
    Greater Vancouver Area blackberry z10 for sale, new & used blackberry z10 wanted - Kijiji Classifieds
  18. a1s2d3f4g5's Avatar
    CrackBerry Abuser

    Posts
    119 Posts
    #43  

    Default

    bump to show how this analyst was wrong
    Thanked by:
    Bold_until_Hybrid_Comes (03-28-2013) 
  19. eragle's Avatar
    CrackBerry User

    Posts
    91 Posts
    Global Posts
    109 Global Posts
    PIN
    3229E0A5
    #44  

    Default

    I am the first to steer clear of any "I told you so-ing" when it comes to people on a personal level, but the fact that Blackberry is profitable makes me happy to bend that rule a little.
    Stewartj1 and Acumenight like this.
  20. aniym's Avatar
    CrackBerry Abuser

    Posts
    428 Posts
    Global Posts
    460 Global Posts
    #45  

    Default

    Its great that BB pulled in a profit this quarter, but let's bear in mind that the bulk of this is attributable to the cost savings from the thousands of people they laid off in 2012. In terms of analysts being wrong, the 2.7 billion revenue number was exactly on the middle of the 2.4-3.2 billion range that Wall Street's was expecting. They've also lost 3 million subs which is a sharp drop from the 1 million they lost last quarter.

    I'm expecting revenue to grow quite a bit next quarter due to the high ASP of BB10 devices, but in the US, carrier interest still seems to be tepid. You would need 10 countries with the population and per capita income of Canada to match one US, so BB cannot under any circumstances reduce focus on the American market.

    I'm still upset they blew 3 million on that pointless Superbowl ad. That could have hired so many more BB reps that could make the rounds at carrier stores and make sure that the damn signs were up!
  21. Thunderbuck's Avatar

    Posts
    5,277 Posts
    Global Posts
    5,278 Global Posts
    PIN
    2B6927F7
    #46  

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by aniym View Post
    Its great that BB pulled in a profit this quarter, but let's bear in mind that the bulk of this is attributable to the cost savings from the thousands of people they laid off in 2012. In terms of analysts being wrong, the 2.7 billion revenue number was exactly on the middle of the 2.4-3.2 billion range that Wall Street's was expecting. They've also lost 3 million subs which is a sharp drop from the 1 million they lost last quarter.

    I'm expecting revenue to grow quite a bit next quarter due to the high ASP of BB10 devices, but in the US, carrier interest still seems to be tepid. You would need 10 countries with the population and per capita income of Canada to match one US, so BB cannot under any circumstances reduce focus on the American market.

    I'm still upset they blew 3 million on that pointless Superbowl ad. That could have hired so many more BB reps that could make the rounds at carrier stores and make sure that the damn signs were up!
    Um, you make it sound like the profit booked for Q4 is a one-shot deal, and I'm not seeing that. I'm seeing a more streamlined business, with a massive cost-cutting program implemented with little disruption to customers. I'm having trouble seeing one-time stuff that won't be duplicated down the line.

    Revenues were on the low side, sure, and I'm not happy about that subscriber drop, but they MADE MONEY in the quarter, and made enough to suggest viability.

    Can I say, as a shareholder I'm not totally thrilled at the numbers? I would have liked to see better retention on the subscriptions and better Z10 sales to March 2. If these two things had been a little better, I think we'd have been looking at $20 by the end of next week. Even absent these, though, the worst honestly IS behind BB. Things are only going to get better. Consider this: the Z10 is doing well in most markets, and I'm pretty sure by now most users are well aware of the app situation. That situation is only going to improve from here out. I'm expecting margins to come down on the Z10, if only to undercut the S4 when it finally comes out. I note, though, that the S4 is going on pre-order at AT&T for $50 more than was suggested at its launch event, so maybe the Z10's margins won't get squeezed so badly. I think margins will be VERY strong for the Q10, though, and will likely stay that way through the rest of calendar 2013 just because there is no other premium keyboard phone on the market.

    Pretty much everybody is saying that apps are BB10's Achilles' Heel. I talked to a rep at The Source yesterday who was impressed when I told him that BB World had topped the 100k title mark. THAT situation is only going to improve going forward. So many analysts have suggested that Apple and Android have an insurmountable lead in this, and nobody else should even try, but when you look at the ground that BB has already covered you can't help but wonder if they have some momentum going.

    Anyway, back to the original post, Pacific Crest has shown themselves to have no credibility whatsoever when it comes to BlackBerry.





    "Max Power doesn't 'cuddle'! You strap yourself in and feel the Gs!"
    a1s2d3f4g5 likes this.
  22. HabsSuck's Avatar
    CrackBerry Abuser

    Posts
    117 Posts
    #47  

    Default

    Oh yes, James DOA Faucette, he was absent from the earnings call.

    Loss in subs was disappointing but TH put it in perspective, they are more concerned with ARPU and the majority were prepared subs.

    If They maintain high margins then we have a huge success, Q10 and BES10 will be huge in Q2.


    Posted via CB10
Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12

Similar Threads

  1. No sign of life to my curve 8310
    By Jlindsey93 in forum BlackBerry Curve 83xx
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 08-04-2009, 10:42 AM
  2. Replies: 2
    Last Post: 07-20-2009, 07:21 PM
  3. Adding line of service to existing acct
    By DreamAs2Live4Evr in forum AT&T
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 07-06-2009, 10:56 AM
  4. Does the GPS need line of sight?
    By pilotkid in forum General BlackBerry Discussion
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 06-08-2009, 01:41 PM
  5. Does the GPS need line of sight?
    By pilotkid in forum BlackBerry Curve 8900
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 06-08-2009, 01:41 PM

Posting Permissions